- Mar 2, 2006
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One of the smartest people to ever post on this site once told me that the most important factor in winning football games and covering spreads is the offensive line. A good offensive line provides two essential elements: 1) they give a QB time to pass, resulting in higher yards per pass attempt and 2) they provide blocks, resulting in more rushing yards. These two statistics are important indicators of who will win and cover a game. Teams that average more passing yards per attempt than their opponent are 70.3% ATS over the last six seasons, and teams with more total rushing yards than their opponent are 67.3% ATS over the last six seasons, and if they win both these categories, teams are 81.2% ATS, winning by an average margin of 12.65 ppg.
The Broncos should be able to win both these statistical categories on Sunday afternoon. While both teams have a similar rushing attack, averaging 3.8 yards/carry, the Denver defense is the best in total rushing yards allowed per game this season at 72.4, and they are fifth in yards allowed per attempt, only 0.1 behind four other teams. New England is in the bottom ten in yards allowed per attempt, and also in rushing yards allowed per game at 129.6. To put this in perspective, the Patriots give up 79.0% more rushing yards per game than the Broncos. This is a significant difference, and the Broncos should be able to out-gain the Patriots on the ground.
Interestingly enough, total passing yards is less of an indicator of who will win a game than passing yards per attempt. The Broncos have the second best passing defense this season in yards/attempt, allowing just 6.3. The Broncos defense has faced: Luck, Alex Smith, Wilson, Stanton, Geno Smith, Kaepernick, and Rivers. This list includes three top ten quarterbacks based on passer rating and together their average rating is 90.8, right in line with the league average. This legitimizes what the Broncos secondary has been able to do defensively so far this season. The Patriots are right in the middle of the league offensively at 7.4 passing yards/attempt.
Defensively, the Patriots have been good, giving up just 6.9 yards/attempt. However, they have not exactly faced stiff competition: Tannehill, Cassel, Carr (who they barely beat), Alex Smith, Dalton, Orton, Geno Smith (who they also barely beat), and Cutler. Only one of these quarterbacks is in the top ten in passer rating this season, and averaged together their passer rating is 85.1, well under the league quarterback average of 91.6 this season, and far below the league best 119.0 of Peyton Manning. Not surprisingly, the Broncos are second in the league this season in passing yards/attempt at 8.4, even though 4 out of 7 of their games have been against top ten passing defenses (Chiefs, Chargers, 49ers, Seahawks). The Broncos should be able to average more passing yards/attempt in this game.
As noted above, teams that win both these categories cover the spread 81.2% of the time.
Brady had a nearly perfect game last week, but historically after a 350+ yard passing game, the Patriots with Brady are just 11-22 (33.3%) ATS. The Patriots overall played a nearly flawless game, and this has raised their stock. Teams coming off a near perfect, easy game, that they were supposed to win (defined as having a positive turnover margin, leading after every quarter, covering the spread by more than two touchdowns, and being favored by six or more points) are 14-54-1 (20.6%) ATS in the following week, showing their inflated value due to this type of win.
The Broncos won?t forget what happened last season in Foxboro, when they yielded a 24-0 halftime lead to lose in overtime. They will be prepared for this game, and the preparation starts with their leader. Peyton Manning is 35-9 SU and 27-16-1 ATS when he has more rest than his opponent. As a road favorite with more rest, he is 14-3 ATS and 15-2 SU, winning by an average margin of 12.24 ppg.
Broncos -3 (-115)
Cheers
The Broncos should be able to win both these statistical categories on Sunday afternoon. While both teams have a similar rushing attack, averaging 3.8 yards/carry, the Denver defense is the best in total rushing yards allowed per game this season at 72.4, and they are fifth in yards allowed per attempt, only 0.1 behind four other teams. New England is in the bottom ten in yards allowed per attempt, and also in rushing yards allowed per game at 129.6. To put this in perspective, the Patriots give up 79.0% more rushing yards per game than the Broncos. This is a significant difference, and the Broncos should be able to out-gain the Patriots on the ground.
Interestingly enough, total passing yards is less of an indicator of who will win a game than passing yards per attempt. The Broncos have the second best passing defense this season in yards/attempt, allowing just 6.3. The Broncos defense has faced: Luck, Alex Smith, Wilson, Stanton, Geno Smith, Kaepernick, and Rivers. This list includes three top ten quarterbacks based on passer rating and together their average rating is 90.8, right in line with the league average. This legitimizes what the Broncos secondary has been able to do defensively so far this season. The Patriots are right in the middle of the league offensively at 7.4 passing yards/attempt.
Defensively, the Patriots have been good, giving up just 6.9 yards/attempt. However, they have not exactly faced stiff competition: Tannehill, Cassel, Carr (who they barely beat), Alex Smith, Dalton, Orton, Geno Smith (who they also barely beat), and Cutler. Only one of these quarterbacks is in the top ten in passer rating this season, and averaged together their passer rating is 85.1, well under the league quarterback average of 91.6 this season, and far below the league best 119.0 of Peyton Manning. Not surprisingly, the Broncos are second in the league this season in passing yards/attempt at 8.4, even though 4 out of 7 of their games have been against top ten passing defenses (Chiefs, Chargers, 49ers, Seahawks). The Broncos should be able to average more passing yards/attempt in this game.
As noted above, teams that win both these categories cover the spread 81.2% of the time.
Brady had a nearly perfect game last week, but historically after a 350+ yard passing game, the Patriots with Brady are just 11-22 (33.3%) ATS. The Patriots overall played a nearly flawless game, and this has raised their stock. Teams coming off a near perfect, easy game, that they were supposed to win (defined as having a positive turnover margin, leading after every quarter, covering the spread by more than two touchdowns, and being favored by six or more points) are 14-54-1 (20.6%) ATS in the following week, showing their inflated value due to this type of win.
The Broncos won?t forget what happened last season in Foxboro, when they yielded a 24-0 halftime lead to lose in overtime. They will be prepared for this game, and the preparation starts with their leader. Peyton Manning is 35-9 SU and 27-16-1 ATS when he has more rest than his opponent. As a road favorite with more rest, he is 14-3 ATS and 15-2 SU, winning by an average margin of 12.24 ppg.
Broncos -3 (-115)
Cheers
