(Plicks are at the bottom of this monster post.. 4 mins. to post)
Today's "action"
I see a decent no. of MJers that are sitting on the fences, looking HUNGRY like the Wolves (remember that song?). I guess thems waiting for something to happen around here and UNfortunately, watching the clock ticking is the only thing happening since DT and Swan Dog gave it up. Posting plicks usually doesn't work, but ... how bout a "game" that DEFINITELY has to do with hosses. Maybe that will stir up the audience
Besides, good ole Philly is back to normal and there WAS only two playables today and the 6th (first playable) got decimated already with sqwatches.
OK, git you keyboards dusted off, MJers, and see if this "game" interests you enough...
(Got your glasses on (?) cause this is kinda long and I'm doing it in notepad so I can see the prerace stuff until we get to a playable wace)
Now, I do A LOT of figurin when capping hosses, gotta use the ole calculatOr and weed out stuff for EACH horse in a race before I start calculating. The calculating part is just with EZ math, like addition, division, and multiplying, but the weeding out of things that get in the way is VERY pain-staking and boring as all hell. You/ME have to weed out races on tracks for each horse that are "worser" than Philly (like Penn), distance of races run are no more than 1/16 mile different than today's race, do consider races on tracks better than Philly like N.Y. tracks (NOT places like Finger Lakes f'rinstance), AND THEN YOU START USING THE DANG CALCULATOR. Four of the factors that I gotta calc. (like TRUE earnings per start or TRUE value of the horse's earnings) are boring and
(HOLD ON.. I see two of my favorite hosses in this upcomming 4th race, which will prob. by history by the time I post this novel. Nos. 1 and 3. TOO BAD there's only FIVE dang hosses in this race. Think I'll play around with 2 stinkin bucks on each of those... NO. 1 is out of form and 11 to 1 right now
hold on
.
.
.
OK
.
BTW, the no. 3 may be the better of the two, BUT the no. 1 has much better odds and L@@KS better today
(gonna watch the race and resume the novel)
.
.
WOW, you ain't gonna believe this ... finish was close between the nos. 1 and 3 (SOMB), the no. 3 gets the cash over the no. 1 .. and no. 1 was 17/1 (excuse me for a minute.. " FLOCK!"), I won ONE dollar in that race :mj07: mj07:
OK, back to the "game". Forget about the factors I figure out.. let's git to the bottom of this thing...
I'm always analyzing the figures I come with with the results from previous races and found something that just blows my mind. Here's the deal.....
Just like lotto (actually KENO is a better analogy), say we get to pick 5 nos. out and there's 11 numbered ping pong balls in a bowl that we're gonna pick from. Say the winning 3 nos. are will be the first three nos. picked out of the big bowl. Now, what are the odds that your nos. will have EXACTLY 2 of the winning 3 nos. Actually, it can be figured out, but that would ruin the fun. You have 3 of the nos in your head. Now, what do you think the chances are that EXACTLY 2 of your nos. will be picked in the first three balls that get picked out of the big bowl? NOT one of your nos. or none of your nos. or 3 of your nos. .. EXACTLY TWO of your nos.... ?...., 20%, 40%, 60%?
.
.
HOLD on... ( played "Magic nos." in the 5th, 2<-->6, just finished .. 1-2-5 )
OK, the nos. in the big bowl represent the hosses on the twack, the first 3 random nos. that get picked are the trifecta results. AND, the true probability of EXACTLY TWO of your nos. will be in those 3 trifecta nos. AIN'T no 90% + either.
But that is the case with what's been going on with my nos. Just unreal. The bad news about all of this is that we ain't all gonna be millionaires on account of this finding.
Just take a look at yesterday's results and they ARE typical of quite a few of prevous days. The first set of nos. are the nos. we're picking (from my figures) and the second set are the trifecta nos. ...
Sorry, hold on .. the 6th race WAS playable but got destroyed with sqwatches. After seeing them, I'm on 2 top/bot with 4,5 for 2 stinkin dollars apiece. GONNA POST THIS NOW AND COME BACK TO FIX THE FORMAT AND STUFF. AND no. 7 to win with just enough to cover all bets.
Today's "action"
I see a decent no. of MJers that are sitting on the fences, looking HUNGRY like the Wolves (remember that song?). I guess thems waiting for something to happen around here and UNfortunately, watching the clock ticking is the only thing happening since DT and Swan Dog gave it up. Posting plicks usually doesn't work, but ... how bout a "game" that DEFINITELY has to do with hosses. Maybe that will stir up the audience
Besides, good ole Philly is back to normal and there WAS only two playables today and the 6th (first playable) got decimated already with sqwatches. OK, git you keyboards dusted off, MJers, and see if this "game" interests you enough...
(Got your glasses on (?) cause this is kinda long and I'm doing it in notepad so I can see the prerace stuff until we get to a playable wace)
Now, I do A LOT of figurin when capping hosses, gotta use the ole calculatOr and weed out stuff for EACH horse in a race before I start calculating. The calculating part is just with EZ math, like addition, division, and multiplying, but the weeding out of things that get in the way is VERY pain-staking and boring as all hell. You/ME have to weed out races on tracks for each horse that are "worser" than Philly (like Penn), distance of races run are no more than 1/16 mile different than today's race, do consider races on tracks better than Philly like N.Y. tracks (NOT places like Finger Lakes f'rinstance), AND THEN YOU START USING THE DANG CALCULATOR. Four of the factors that I gotta calc. (like TRUE earnings per start or TRUE value of the horse's earnings) are boring and
(HOLD ON.. I see two of my favorite hosses in this upcomming 4th race, which will prob. by history by the time I post this novel. Nos. 1 and 3. TOO BAD there's only FIVE dang hosses in this race. Think I'll play around with 2 stinkin bucks on each of those... NO. 1 is out of form and 11 to 1 right now
hold on
.
.
.
OK
.
BTW, the no. 3 may be the better of the two, BUT the no. 1 has much better odds and L@@KS better today
(gonna watch the race and resume the novel)
.
.
WOW, you ain't gonna believe this ... finish was close between the nos. 1 and 3 (SOMB), the no. 3 gets the cash over the no. 1 .. and no. 1 was 17/1 (excuse me for a minute.. " FLOCK!"), I won ONE dollar in that race :mj07: mj07:
OK, back to the "game". Forget about the factors I figure out.. let's git to the bottom of this thing...
I'm always analyzing the figures I come with with the results from previous races and found something that just blows my mind. Here's the deal.....
Just like lotto (actually KENO is a better analogy), say we get to pick 5 nos. out and there's 11 numbered ping pong balls in a bowl that we're gonna pick from. Say the winning 3 nos. are will be the first three nos. picked out of the big bowl. Now, what are the odds that your nos. will have EXACTLY 2 of the winning 3 nos. Actually, it can be figured out, but that would ruin the fun. You have 3 of the nos in your head. Now, what do you think the chances are that EXACTLY 2 of your nos. will be picked in the first three balls that get picked out of the big bowl? NOT one of your nos. or none of your nos. or 3 of your nos. .. EXACTLY TWO of your nos.... ?...., 20%, 40%, 60%?
.
.
HOLD on... ( played "Magic nos." in the 5th, 2<-->6, just finished .. 1-2-5
)OK, the nos. in the big bowl represent the hosses on the twack, the first 3 random nos. that get picked are the trifecta results. AND, the true probability of EXACTLY TWO of your nos. will be in those 3 trifecta nos. AIN'T no 90% + either.
But that is the case with what's been going on with my nos. Just unreal. The bad news about all of this is that we ain't all gonna be millionaires on account of this finding.
Just take a look at yesterday's results and they ARE typical of quite a few of prevous days. The first set of nos. are the nos. we're picking (from my figures) and the second set are the trifecta nos. ...
Sorry, hold on .. the 6th race WAS playable but got destroyed with sqwatches. After seeing them, I'm on 2 top/bot with 4,5 for 2 stinkin dollars apiece. GONNA POST THIS NOW AND COME BACK TO FIX THE FORMAT AND STUFF. AND no. 7 to win with just enough to cover all bets.
Last edited:
