A Little Luck Cant't Hurt

[Lightning]

Record Keeping

Record Keeping

In sports like baseball and hockey, where the majority of wagers include money lines ... you have to keep track in units, etc... otherwise, it's meaningless. For example: Sam is a very good NHL capper ... however, though his records show him winning about 2/3 of his plays ... most of them are high juice (-160 or more) plays, therefore, he may not even be plus units for the year even though he has a great record. Fletcher and some others post the same way. Not saying they are not good cappers but I could very easily post all heavy chalk favs and win at a high percentage as could most of us.

Units are what matter in the end cause...

UNITS=PROFIT.

Just my 2 cents.

GOOD LUCK!

 

[lucky_fireman]

Units are not important plain and simple. If a guy is posting winners who cares whats hes betting on them. I'm doing a system right now with the grand salami in hockey and i bet that im only hitting 50-60% but i'm up units because of the way i bet. You can lose 3 bets in a row and put enough dough on the forth game so your profit on that one game is more then you spent on the first 3, now you win that game and your 1-4 and up units. Continue that trend all year and your 25% and up units and according to all you unit fans I would be considered a great capper.... Well i dont think so.. a great capper is someone like Fletcher, Big Game Hunter, a close personal friend of mine Sam, who for your information is not even close to being down units, or anyone else who can post around 70%. In closing i would just like to say to all the GREAT cappers who post winners without posting units that I hope the jealous people here have not turned you off from posting because I would rather follow someone with a great record and decide for myself how much to bet on the games i agreed with, then follow someone with a losing record and hoping i put enough dough on the game they finally get right. Keep the winners coming and don't worry about the units. And if you do decide to leave let me know where your going!! Good Luck All

 

[fletcher]

fletcher posting all high chalk,you mustnot been looking at my post much,totals and dogs have been posted more then heavy chalk. fuk it. theres always a better way.

 

[Nick Douglas]

First of all, most handicappers would not be able to hit 65-70% no matter what type of chalk they played. It is not as easy as it looks.

Fletcher definitely posted more chalk on Mad Jack's in the past but if you notice he is posting a lot of dogs this year. It is like he told me last year, your big players play chalk because in their opinion the best value is cashing a ticket. Now, I don't personally subscribe to fletcher's service, but wouldn't it make sense that he posts the dogs for free here and plays the big chalk on his service for larger amounts?

It is ludicrous to suggest that in a sport like baseball or hockey win-loss record matters more than units. You have to question the handicapping knowledge of anyone who would even suggest that. Nobody who plays for the long term and actually *makes money* long term would agree with that.

 

[Lightning]

I was not criticizing anyone who posts here for free. I was just saying that winning percentage could mean little in the long run when playing heavy chalk. On the other hand, a predominantly dog player could be .500 or under but plus units which in the end is what matters IMO. And not the morons who post 50 units games and stuff to make there units look good cause that means nothing as well. In my case, I post games from 1* to 5* with the *** meaning units. My average wager is probably about 2.5* or units.

Nick is correct. Anyone who looks strictly at W/L record in ML sports like baseball and hockey are not going to see things properly.

As for Fletcher, I meant he historically has posted a lot of heavy chalk plays. I realize that he is pretty good in college football and college hoops but that is not what we are talking about in this particular thread... and yes, he has been posting more dogs and totals this year so far.

Look at those Yankees today ... I bet many people layed some heavy chalk with them or played them in parlays and got smoked. If you consistently lay that kind od chalk, I think you will likely lose in the long run but that is just my opinion. I am not trying to state facts ... just OPINIONS!

This forum is supposed to be to help each other, post info., reasoning, etc... anything that can help each other out. That's the deal IMO. Of course, others are using it to gain followers and go pay which is fine if that's what they want to do.

GOOD LUCK!

 

[Sam]

Don't know how i got brought into this, but . Lightning, i would love to see you post a record of 70% in Hockey next year. Take all the highest favourites you want, be my guest. And go ahead, do the math on my plays, you figure out how i would be down. If you want i can send you all the email i get thanking me for making people money. Thats not just posting more winners than loosers. So if you have a problem with the way i post stuff, just dont read the damn thing or dont comment on how you dont think its right what i do.

 

[Hoops]

Not sure why anyone would get offended when asked to post units W/L when tracking baseball or hockey. I'm not even talking about higher or lower rated plays (5 units, 8 units, etc.), just flat-betting. If someone plays the same amount every game when wagering with the spread and laying -110 a majority of the time, posting a record already includes the units..say 40-20, naturally the units would be +18...so there wouldn't be a need for it.

But to say that units do not matter or who cares or whatever is off base in regards to baseball or hockey. As it has been already pointed out, someone who is 40-20 has a nice looking record, but it doesn't really say anything. If you are laying an average of -150 or there about, that 67% winning percentage isn't in essence the same as the guy betting football that went 40-20. It's much easier to lay -130, -150, -200, etc with regularity and have a nice record.

I'm not saying anyone is trying to 'scam' posters or what not, but why do guys who are more than happy to post 28-10 records get all bent out of shape when asked to possibly track their units, since when they lose they aren't losing only -110 (and on the flipside when they win with a dog they aren't winning only +100). Does anyone who keeps logs of their plays everyday during baseball just put down what team they had with no line, tally up only the winners and losers at -110 or +100 and get their figure that way?

 

[Hoops]

And how the hell did I get that avatar??...LOL. Thanks Jack..LOL

 

[Sam]

because i post picks to help people pick winners, not to have them pick winners with the minimal amount of risk. why worry about how much im up, just either follow the picks or dont

 

[Hoops]

Sam- I don't follow your picks nor do I worry how much anyone is 'up'. Only asking a simple question and wondering why people get offended when posting units W/L instead of a basic record when handicapping sports that use a moneyline. That is all.

 

[Antonio]

Very well said Hoops!! Units Units Units!!!

I just dont get the reasoning behind some guys who cannot post units won or loss when it comes to bases and hockey.

Ive been tracking a consensus over at another site since the start of the MLB season. There getting 300-600 players picking on these games. I'd say 90% of all selections are in the chalk department. There record as of the first week of play 35-21 (62.5%)(+4.16units) i base it on a $100 wager. While the record is astounding, and the units are in the plus, it aint much to brag about. Being a public fader, i know there time will come when they easily get into the Red. I have a feeling that time is coming soon

 

[Lightning]

Sam

Sam

Sam ... I definitely did not mean anything negatively towards you ... hell ... you are one of the very few who I read daily which is why I used you as an example. I love to put your NHL plays in ML parlays with money line NBA and MLB plays. I just meant that while your NHL record is AWESOME (something like 168-67)... you are likely not up 100 units. That's all dude ... like I said, I think you are a fine capper but that is why I post units. Much easier to follow and let people clearly track how someone is doing. No disrespect intended as I respect you greatly as a capper.

Good Luck!

:shrug:

 

[Lightning]

Fading the Public

Fading the Public

Antonio ... this is the way to go ... if you fade the public in almost any sport ... you will end up +++ in the end. I base some of my pays solely on fading a public play that everyone is on. And when I am on one myself ... I usually end up playing for less units.

A lot of the time... when I take something and almost everyone seems to love it and be on it as well ... it ends up losing. Sometimes when something looks too good ... you just gotta pull a Constanza and do the opposite.

Good Luck!

 

[BIG GAME HUNTER]

I see all the points you guys are trying to make but i dont understand what the deal is with me posting units. Unless someone plans on betting the same amount of units as me who cares.
I just post how many games i win and lose, done deal. I dont care if you use my posts or not. I put one game in at a time.
Tonite i put the Red Sox and Indians in at the same time. When i thought i hit both i went large on the Mariners. Funny thing is the Sox blew it and then the Mariners won. I came out on top pretty good.
I will continue to post my record, 26-8 and i will continue to keep my units to myself. I dont care how much anyone bets,

I choose my plays every morning and then read everyones posts and see who agrees with me.

Thanks for the support and best of luck to everyone.......

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

If someone doesn't want to post their units their entitled to that option, but the POINT that I think that is trying to be made here is that a W-L record is not reflective of your units or how well your doing.


For example, if you look at my record in baseball this year it SUCKS (20W-20L), but my units indicate otherwise +16.19 units.

I recall NICK D who last year was below .500% in his selections but ws up over 70 units in baseball!!


Great money management is the key, not a win-loss record.

 

[ndnfan]

Really don't know why I'm posting anything, but If you're playing moneylines in baseball or another sport, your record is NOT a good indicator. Bottom line, what matters is if you're up units!

That's what really bothers me around here. To me a Unit = 2% of my starting bankroll, thus 2 units = 4%. That's about as high as I go as far as the betting amount.

Now, I know everyone does not have a set standard for how much a unit should be of your banroll, but I see people playing games for 5 or even 10 units.....now here's the question, do the people playing these 10 Unit games even have a starting bankroll?? and if a unit is as low as say 2%(the percent I use) Does that mean you're laying 20% on one game?? IMO, very bad betting discipline. Game's alot of times are decided by fickle fate, stupid errors, bad calls, whatever you wanna call it, laying 20% of your bankroll is just plain rediculious.

I guess what I'm trying to say is a lot of times the amount of Units a person is up who posts here is not a good indicator as well.


Should probably stop, before I get criticism from people, but I see a lot of people who say that if you play heavy chalk, you will definately lose in the long run. BS! No different than playing a heavy Underdog. There's juice in there as well. That's like saying you can just play all the dogs in baseball and make a killing. BS again.

Now I'll play heavy chalk as well as heavy dogs if I think they got a good shot at winning. I'm looking at value. Sometimes IMO, there's no value in say a -270 line, but other times that -270 could be a bargain. What get's me is alot of the people that think it's taboo to play heavy chalk, are the same ones that will dump up to a whopping 10 UNITS on a game.....don't make sense how they think no way can a -270 team possibly could win this matchup 4 out of 5 times to justify the line, but they do justify putting 5 to 10 times the normal 1 betting unit on a game that could possibly be decided on other factors that you could not have even handicapped..


I know everyone has their own betting styles and techniques, but just thought I'd add my 2 cents.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

very well said ndnfan

 

[TheShrimp]

Units are not important plain and simple. You can lose 3 bets in a row and put enough dough on the forth game so your profit on that one game is more then you spent on the first 3, now you win that game and your 1-4 and up units. Continue that trend all year and your 25% and up units and according to all you unit fans I would be considered a great capper.... Well i dont think so..

Fireman,

Can we conclude from your post that you think a guy who went 4-1, but bet 5 units on the one loss so that he was *down* a unit is somehow a better capper than the guy who is 1-4 but *up* a unit?

Part of sports betting is betting more money when you think you have a bigger edge.

Experiment: Try betting the Yanks every game they play this year. By the end of the season, you should be about 95-67, or almost 60%.
Question: Do you think you'll be writing checks or cashing checks?

If "units are not important plain and simple" then you should be happy with your 60%.

I only ask the following because you wrote, "I would rather follow someone with a great record and decide for myself how much to bet on the games i agreed with, then follow someone with a losing record and hoping i put enough dough on the game they finally get right."

Here's the question:
Do you understand how the Money Line works? Winning money on a dog does not come from betting MORE on them. It comes from the added value you get by betting a dog. If you don't get this, you need to be very careful betting baseball and hockey.

I say that as a fellow sports bettor who thinks you might not get it, not as an a-s-s-h-o-l-e.

TheShrimp

 

[incubus]

su w-l record deceiving, post odds and units w-l

su w-l record deceiving, post odds and units w-l

:shrug:

 

[Lightning]

Very well said ndnfan ... for me ... 1* or unit and 1% of bankroll, 2*or 2 units = 2% of bankroll and so on. The most I ever play is 5* or 5 units and that is not too often.

What I meant when I said if you are betting heavy chalk you will lose in the long run is that is if you are ALWAYS betting heavy chalk and not looking for good value, you will likely lose in the long run. A good balance of dogs, favs, overs, unders, etc... in which you find value IMO is the best way to play. So far, I have played 39 favs, 32 dogs, 10 overs and 7 unders ... not that it matters but I am simply looking for any game I feel I can win that has some value.

Good Luck!