I have been looking at dogs with +1/2 and negative money lately, so I decided to go back and look at their season long performance. Basically I was looking at ML prices between -110 (away teams only for -110, all teams for -105 and higher) and +120 because those pucklines are usually between +1/2 -120 and +1/2 -150.
Teams in those spots went 162-150, which if you take -135 as the average price (median between -120 and -150 because I didn't calculate the actual average) is a 40.5 unit loss this year wagering to win 1 unit per play.
Interestingly, teams giving the half puck and getting plus money for it (moneylines between -110 for away teams and -115 to -140 for all teams) with -1/2 prices between +100 and +130 are the opposite, 150-162, which works out to a +10 unit profit if you take +115 as the average price.
What does this all mean? Either you believe that there is a long term trend that says that -1/2, + plus money small faves are profitable long term or you believe that the large discrepancy so far will correct itself over the remainder of the season and we will see a higher percentage of +1/2, minus money dogs hit.
Given the fact that I am playing Nashville at +1/2 -145 tonight, I obviously believe that this is a short term aberration and that mean regression will come into effect the rest of the season.
Tonight there are two games that fit into this scenario, with COL +1/2 minus vs. VAN -1/2 plus and NYI -1/2 plus vs. NSH +1/2 minus. Might be an interesting thing to track tonight.
Teams in those spots went 162-150, which if you take -135 as the average price (median between -120 and -150 because I didn't calculate the actual average) is a 40.5 unit loss this year wagering to win 1 unit per play.
Interestingly, teams giving the half puck and getting plus money for it (moneylines between -110 for away teams and -115 to -140 for all teams) with -1/2 prices between +100 and +130 are the opposite, 150-162, which works out to a +10 unit profit if you take +115 as the average price.
What does this all mean? Either you believe that there is a long term trend that says that -1/2, + plus money small faves are profitable long term or you believe that the large discrepancy so far will correct itself over the remainder of the season and we will see a higher percentage of +1/2, minus money dogs hit.
Given the fact that I am playing Nashville at +1/2 -145 tonight, I obviously believe that this is a short term aberration and that mean regression will come into effect the rest of the season.
Tonight there are two games that fit into this scenario, with COL +1/2 minus vs. VAN -1/2 plus and NYI -1/2 plus vs. NSH +1/2 minus. Might be an interesting thing to track tonight.
