A MESSAGE TO HOOPS PLAYERS about line value

[GENO]

You must absolutely always get the best of the line in this pursuit or you will only mark time or break even or of course worse yet, LOSE!

To illustrate I offer the following .....

72256222-1 1/28/11 7:00pm Win 1/28/11 7:00pm College Basketball 832 Harvard -10 -140* vs Columbia

[#91192887] STRAIGHT BET
01/28/2011 - 04:00 PM CBB [831] COLUMBIA +13?-150 (B+2)
Score: COLUMBIA(66) - HARVARD(77) WIN

I had the dog on the buy at 3 units risk and the favorite risking 2 units for the return factored by the price shown.

:0008

 

[kickserv]

I had the +11.5 at -110 and won:shrug:

 

[BGFalcon]

I had -10.5 and won as well. :shrug:

 

[Full court press]

It's also important to have a good book who posts overnight lines like BM. On many occasions I have been in front of the move of a point or a half and it became the difference between cashing or losing.

The way its looking right now, Green Bay could be a good example ( if i am lucky) Opened at 2'

 

[GENO]

kick and BG i think you are missing my point I won BOTH SIDES, two bets on this one game with very little risk and liked the dog side slightly more than the favorite

the key to my post is exactly what both you did, you had the best number for your situation.

Someone else posted in another thread tonight that they had the FAV - 11.5 well you know what happened to him, he paid the three of us.

I do NOT do this with every game, but where the number I brew up falls really close to the posted line, I consider this angle especially when the home team is the favorite.

the MAIN message here is know what the line should be, know where it opened and know how it moved

:0074

to play a bad line will leave you like this :shrug: at the end of the game, while the rest of us are :

:toast:

:toast:

or in my case :toast: :toast:

 

[heleanth]

How can you say there is very little risk? Are you not giving up -140 and -150 vig? You will be a huge, and I mean HUGE loser in a very short amount of time if you keep that up. GL to you anyway and I hope you win, but I can't see it at those prices.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Seriously? This is horrible advice. Never do what he is proposing. That is all i'm going to say before I come off as an ass but there is no way around this. Bad bad bad idea.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I had to come back to this because this is such an insane post. Using your numbers and laying an average of -145, you would have to hit that middle once every 4.44 times (or 22.7%) you attempted this. And that is just to break even. Insanity.

 

[Full court press]

I had to come back to this because this is such an insane post. Using your numbers and laying an average of -145, you would have to hit that middle once every 4.44 times (or 22.7%) you attempted this. And that is just to break even. Insanity.

Yikes , I missed that -150 :scared

 

[el JB]

just my 2 cents .... handicapping a bunch of games is all about finding VALUE on the wagers we make or looking towards the games we want to bet? AS I SEE IT , i don't mind finding a jewel MISMATCH, no matter if that particular game is a top ten, a big home fav or A DIV II vs their worst enemy/rival ...thing is i wanna make some good cash and if i have to lay a LOT OF JUICE i won't be....ok?

 

[GENO]

DID ANYBODY READ AND FULLY UNDERSTAND THIS LINE FROM MY POST?


"I do NOT do this with every game, but where the number I brew up falls really close to the posted line, I consider this angle especially when the home team is the favorite."


IN other words,

WHEN MY LINE IS RIGHT ON, EXACTLY ON THE NUMBER THAT THE BOOK HAS

then I will use this strategy!

my number on this game was HARVARD -11.5

now unless the harvard boys are putting some cash on the game no one has told them to win the game by 12, they only want to win the game.

IF anything they would slice a couple of baskets to win and let the dog cover. am I saying that they did this, no way just stating the facts:nono:

I must be very good at picking these games if that is the win rate needed, but remember I am typically shading one side or the other by a one or two % more play than the other so the key thing is for the larger side to hit, which I must be VERY good at picking also.

I never lose a full unit or % of BR that I normally play on other stand alone sides because it is IMPOSSIBLE to lose both and one or the other side must cover.

THE MIDDLE STRATEGY IS NOT THE

T-bone steak in this thread, the take home is:

KNOW YOUR PLAY, KNOW THE OPENING NUMBER AND KNOW THE VALUE of the teams you are placing an investment on:nono:

I only chose to post the plays I made to illustrate how close the linemaker's numbers become as the season wears on!

nobody is in danger of coming off as an ass, Trampled, and I wiould say to most that unless you are really good at putting together a set of numbers this is a VERY BAD IDEA :mj07:

Better yet, don't dare use this strategy as I will be glad to continue to use it to my profit as long as it profits for me, when it stops then I will quit. I am a firm believer in reducing the books advantage, juice is only one of his advantage's the other is the spread he has for us to play into.

Final example is the 4PM card today, I had KY by 15, Miss as a P/E, WISCY as a 7.5 favorite and NEW MEX as a 5 point favorite.

I did not play a single middle shot on these and only played WISCY on the ML and New Mexico + 4

OH I also took a shot on the OVER 118 in the Wiscy/Penn St game, time will tell!

We don't all drive GM or Ford if you get my drift.

Best of luck to all :0074

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

I'm just warning the squares. You can do what you want but this is a losing strategy. In every situation.

 

[GENO]

I'm just warning the squares. You can do what you want but this is a losing strategy. In every situation.

Just as I was trying to warn them about playing into a bad inflated line

BTW,as Gene Hackman told Dennis Hopper in the movie "HOOSIERS" I did it again,

Ohio St - 9 for 4 to win 2.86

Northwestern + 12.5 3 to win 2 units

FLAT 4% PLAYS FOR SIX PM TIPS:

Houston + 8.5-150

Cornell + 12.5 -150

UTAH + 3.5 -150

TCU - 2 -130

VANDY - 11 -150

OREGON + 10 -150

the arguement about high juice just doesn't hold for me personally I am up 8.62 units this week and 8.91 units last week, + 6.65 the week of the 10th, + 5.38 the week of Jan 3rd, LOST 9.22 UNITS the week of DEC 27th.


That is plus 20.34 since DEC 27th:0074

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

GL. Not even worth debating.

 

[ageecee]

i had -12 and lost. I think Columbia hit some 3's late to get the push

 

[shawn555]

Just as I was trying to warn them about playing into a bad inflated line

BTW,as Gene Hackman told Dennis Hopper in the movie "HOOSIERS" I did it again,

Ohio St - 9 for 4 to win 2.86

Northwestern + 12.5 3 to win 2 units

FLAT 4% PLAYS FOR SIX PM TIPS:

Houston + 8.5-150

Cornell + 12.5 -150

UTAH + 3.5 -150

TCU - 2 -130

VANDY - 11 -150

OREGON + 10 -150

the arguement about high juice just doesn't hold for me personally I am up 8.62 units this week and 8.91 units last week, + 6.65 the week of the 10th, + 5.38 the week of Jan 3rd, LOST 9.22 UNITS the week of DEC 27th.


That is plus 20.34 since DEC 27th:0074

So wait just because you have turned a profit in a month the idea is not completely faulty?

Laying -150 is going to get you in the long run.

 

[GENO]

jeez found another one and this was the only middle I took at shot at today, yep the -150 is a killer :scared

yesterday's was a loser with the Buckeyes failure to cover the big number.....and my strong side was the loser for a -2 unit net result from that play, however today I pick up 7.33 units with the 152 dropping in the middle

Was gonna cut and paste the wagers, but I finally realize it don't matter.



Friday's hit was +6.39 units,

Saturday's loss was -2 units

and today's s hit + 7.33

Like the stunt driver disclaimer...............................

Don't try this at home, it won't work for you.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

jeez found another one and this was the only middle I took at shot at today, yep the -150 is a killer :scared

yesterday's was a loser with the Buckeyes failure to cover the big number.....and my strong side was the loser for a -2 unit net result from that play, however today I pick up 7.33 units with the 152 dropping in the middle

Was gonna cut and paste the wagers, but I finally realize it don't matter.



Friday's hit was +6.39 units,

Saturday's loss was -2 units

and today's s hit + 7.33

Like the stunt driver disclaimer...............................

Don't try this at home, it won't work for you.

Have you ever done the math on what you are doing? No disrespect at all, but long term you will never win doing this.