There are two contrary trends at work here. Yes, the home dogs are usually a good bet (all handicapping aside). Trouble is -- home teams have been covering at only a 44 percent clip this season. Home field advantage is clearly not what it used to be in the NFL, so I would be more inclined to bet a dog if the matchup is favorable. I am not saying I will play against these home dogs, only that there are compelling reasons to approach these games with caution. My short comments are as follows:
1.) MINNY PLUS 7 AT HOME VS. GB
Very tough to bet on Minnesota at the moment. Yes, the Vikings usually play GB tough at home and there's the dismal record of the Packers indoors on turf, but the Viking's defense could get fried by the Packers. Now, there's also a QB controvery in Minnesota -- which certainly doesn't help. I wouldn't play the Packers based on history, but pretty tough to find a reason to play on MINN -- one of the NFL's most gutless teams.
2.) CINCI GETTING 3.5 VS BROWNS
I look for Cleveland to get back in form in this game. They have had two weeks to get healthy. Cincy's defense is god-awful and anytime Kitna goes back to pass you have to worry about the defense scoring. Even RB Dillon is on the verge of giving up on this team.
3.) HOUSTON GETTING 6 VS. JAX
Had JAX won the first game between these two, I might play the Texans. But getting upset at home sets the stage for a huge revenge matchup. No way the Jaguars get caught napping this week. Biggest problem is Texans offensive line -- clearly the NFL's worst. Unless I got at least a TD, I wouldn't even consider playing Houston against a team desperate to win and still hanging on to playoff hopes, in a revenge situation no less.
4.) DETROIT GETTING 3 VS. JETS
Pennington's completion rate is the highest in the NFL. That really scares me. I'm not a believer in the Jets as a road favorite, but Detroit seems to have fallen back to earth the last few weeks with two terrible offensive efforts against Dallas and Green Bay.
5.) TITANS GETTING 3 VS. PITT
I'll be on the Steelers this week. Pittsburgh played an awful 4Q last week and gave away the game. That won't happen again. This teams has rolled up double digit leads for five straight weeks and surely won't take this opponent lightly. Now that PITT has a pass offense, and RB Bettis may come back this week, that's a dangerous combination. Titans have played a very soft schedule and now they face a much tougher opponent. I got this at PITT -2.5 early, which is a gift.
6.) CHARGERS GETTING 2.5 VS. NINERS
49ers are now peaking. They get better each week (especially defensively). Unless you can get +3, I'd be wary of a bet on the home Chargers.
Those are just some random thoughts. I am not touting the road teams, just saying that many of these home dogs are getting points for a very good reason........which is -- THEY STINK!
Nolan Dalla
