A NY Perspective -- 8/28-8/30

[NY Reb]

Last week: 0-1 -5.5*

Big first true weekend coming up. We've had a long time to study these lines, since they've been out for a while. Found a few games I like, some more than others. If you just like a few plays, stick to my 10* or 7*s. If you like more action, consider the 5*s also. I feel pretty good about my 5*s, and wouldn't take them if I didn't.

I'm going to do 1-3 write-ups a day leading up to game time. Usually I post my write-ups around Thursday, but this week is a little unusual. I'll be posting all my lines as I took them since I've taken advantage of the early lines. Most of these games were in my post from last week, and some from my post before that. Anyway, here's the first couple of write-ups.

Thursday:
7* BYU -3
You ever have those games early in the year that, when you look back on it later in the season, you see it should have been a no-brainer? This is the way I see this game. Georgia Tech has all the makings of this year's Tennessee, minus the potential to be very good in the first place. I don't know what to say about Tech except to point out that they aren't all there. I'm not even sure the coach is all there, but that's another story. Meanwhile, the big story at BYU is the hiring of New Mexico's DC who should give BYU one of their better D's in recent memory. They have 10 starters back on that side of the ball, so they have experience. Now they'll have coaching as well. On offense, we should see a lot of Matt Berry to Chris Hale passes, plus effective ball control from RB Marcus Whalen, who has the potential to have a great year. Over the years it hasn't been easy for teams traveling from the South to Provo, and I don't think the Yellow Jackets will enjoy this visit very much at all. Maybe they'll develop into a team later in the season, but BYU is out for blood.

Saturday:
5* Clemson +3.5
Although I see this game as an upset waiting to happen, I'm glad I got down on the +3.5 when I did. After all, I guess it's entirely possible that Georgia could win by a field goal. Actually, Georgia won by a field goal last year in Athens, and I think the tide will turn this season. I'll bet that Tommy Bowden knows Mark Richt better than Mark knows Tommy, and don't you think that maybe Tommy has picked up a few tips from Papa on this game? Georgia is not quite what they were last year, while Clemson should be improved. The Tigers have some of the best WRs in college football, and Charlie Whitehurst is capable of getting them the ball. Meanwhile, the Bulldawg's secondary is a bit banged up, which isn't good news in this particular game. Mostly, Tommy Bowden needs this game like a fish needs water. Mark this game down as huge upset #1.

Write-ups on the following games, and possibly more, will follow in this same thread.

Ole Miss -12.5
South Florida +17.5
Oklahoma St +8
Auburn -3
FSU -15.5
Miss St +5
UConn -5.5

 

[taoist]

Re: A NY Perspective -- 8/28-8/30

Thursday:
5* BYU -3.5
Georgia Tech has all the makings of this year's Tennessee, minus the potential to be very good in the first place.

...really I don't know what you mean by this statement. Tennessee was decimated by injuries last season, but I can't imagine that you're contending that Ga. Tech is already decimated by injuries in their first game of the year. However, on the other hand, I agree wholeheartedly that the addition of the new DC for BYU will vastly improve their Defense. That was a huge loss for NM and a great pick up by the Cougars. Overall, I agree with the pick, but I just don't understand your reference to Tennessee.

Don't take any of this the wrong way...as I am not criticizing, just trying to understand what you mean. There are a great bunch of guys in this forum and we all (well, most of us) strive to get along and help each other in this little hobby of ours, so please don't think that I'm being critical or anything....

Additionally, I agree with the Clemson pick, although I will probably pass on that game. I haven't decided on how many (if any) of the others that I'll play, but good luck to you nonetheless in the upcoming season and thanks for providing the analysis to go along with your plays.

Let's kick the man in the nuts this season!!! :nutkick


:weed:

 

[NY Reb]

Hey, taoist,

Are you really a Taoist, or is it just a name you like?

What did the sage say?

Here's my analogy -- not well explained in my original post, but I still bet most guys got the implication -- Georgia Tech is a lot like Tennessee of last year in that they don't have access to many of their top players. They've had 10 declared ineligible, and several other key injuries, and many of their top players won't be available. So I feel that their situations are very similar. Except, as I also implied, last year Tennessee was thought to have a really good team in the first place, but Georgia Tech wasn't. No one expected that much out of Georgia Tech this year in the first place.

I hope I have somewhat clarified my inferences.

Have a great year, man!

 

[NY Reb]

5* Wake Forest +13
Carib still has this at +12.5. I took it and bought an extra half point. Some books have this as low as 11.5. I keep looking at this game, and I can't see any reason why BC should be a 13 point favorite. Wake only returns 10 starters, but to stick with the same theme, BC only returns 11 starters themselves. In addition, they play Penn St the following week in a game they are bound to be more excited about than this one. With a new QB, the Eagles will play conservatively and try to run a lot of time off the clock. I see BC winning by 10 at the most, and it could be even closer than that. The Eagles have a habit of running it up on the creampuffs, but Wake Forest is no creampuff. Take the points.

 

[taoist]

Hey, taoist,

Are you really a Taoist, or is it just a name you like?

What did the sage say?

...yes and no.... Do I attempt to practice the philosophy? Yes. Do I attempt to incorporate it into my handicapping? Yes. Am I a Taoist? "In what path does the butterfly fly?"


...your second question...and you can attempt to apply this to your handicapping, as I do.


Under Heaven all can see beauty as beauty only because there is ugliness.
All can know good as good only because there is evil.
Therefore having and not having arise together.
Difficult and easy compliment each other.

Long and short contrast each other;
High and low rest upon each other;
Voice and sound harmonize each other;
Front and back follow each other.

Therefore the sage goes about doing nothing, teaching no-talking.

Creating, yet not possessing,
Working, yet not taking credit.
Work is done, then forgotten.
Therefore it lasts forever.


:weed:

 

[NY Reb]

5* South Florida +17.5
Starting to worry that this might be a very popular play, yet I've had this game circled all summer. A team in their third year of D-1 up against a traditional power makes they line higher than it should be. Don't think even Shula can come in during fall practice and develop an offensive system in such a short time. What's more, they have mighty Oklahoma to butt heads with the following week, so they will probably keep their offense very vanilla. These two factors lead me to believe that it will be a low-scoring game. In a low-scoring game, I doubt that there will be a 17.5 points difference between these two teams. Somehow I even have a feeling that this game will be shockingly close. Once again, take the points.

More to follow.

 

[NY Reb]

Taoist,

Very good. Nice response. Great quote. I like the way you think (or don't think

Interesting how there's no such thing as winning or losing, yet the play continues and the game goes on.

Take care, guy.

 

[taoist]

...not to belabor the point, but....


The five colors blind the eye.
The five tones deafen the ear.
The five flavors dull the taste.
Racing and hunting madden the mind.
Precious things lead one astray.

Therefore the sage is guided by what he feels and not by what he sees.
He lets go of that and chooses this.


...and when one can incorporate that into one's handicapping, one can achieve the "middle path."


...always remember, "the Tao that can be told is not the eternal Tao."

 

[NY Reb]

5* Oklahoma St +8
What can I say, Nebraska don't impress me much. They're breaking in 6 new assistants, including 2 new coordinators, and 10 new starters. They are a relatively slow team overall. They have a couple of lineman worthy of conference honors, but no skill players to speak of. OK St has QB Josh Fields, RB Tatum Bell, and WR Rashaun Woods, plus a lot of momentum. The only thing that bothers me is a pair of undersized OTs, but I think they'll work that out. I see a close game here, decided by a TD or less. That being the case, I'll take the underdog who, IMO, has as good of chance as winning as the favorite. Once again, take those points!

 

[NY Reb]

5* Connecticut -5.5
This is a strange game to cap. If you'd told me 2 years ago that I'd be taking UConn as a favorite over a Big 10 team I'd have said no way. Even so, we have an up and coming team who averaged 31 points a game against a down and out team who has 18 (!) scholarship players on defense. This will be the inaugural game at Rentschier Field, the brand new 40,000 seat stadium that is the Huskies' new home. I expect them to be fired up. UConn has taken to 1-A football a lot faster than I ever expected, and they should have no trouble with these Big 10 wannabes.

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Like your last two posted plays. OSU as you mentioned has the gamebreakers, don't see nearly as many on the Neb. side of the ball. UConn. made me a little money last year as well. Like the Clemson play. Getting pts. at home in Death Valley is big. Besides the heat is on Tommy B. to get the job done this year. Patience is already wearing thin. GL

HORNS

 

[ststrl]

I like your call on UCONN. When they broke into D1 I think I played against them ALL year and won just about everytime. Then again Indiana has a JOKE of a team, and I like your reasoning with the new stadium.

Also with on the Cowboys. Nebraska's run of dominace has slowly been dimishing each year. OSU most underrated Big12 team.

 

[Bama6895]

Agree 100% about South Florida, BYU, and OSU.

Also GT is starting a freshman QB this year. Another reason to go with BYU.

BTW, South Florida scares the crap out of me. There is only so much the team can learn in a month. Hence the offense would be vanilla even if we were playing Ohio State.

 

[mw]

Bowden's coaching has certain deficiencies that are apparent to those who follow Clemson football, so I am leery ... but the last time I think Bowden really felt the heat was before the Humanitarian Bowl, and they covered that number by 18 or so.

 

[NY Reb]

7* Florida St -15.5
I actually got this game at 14.5, but then took it again at 15.5, and that's the line I'll use for the purpose of this post. There are two keys to this game. One is that FSU is far more talented than the Tarheels. The other is that their attitude is to show people that they are back, that they are as good as they ever were. They will come in fired up The only weak link FSU has could be the OL, but that's due to lack of experience, not lack of talent. If you follow recruiting, you know that these guys up front were all heavily recruited and have talent to spare. Two more things to consider: One is that FSU outscored ACC opponents by an average of 16.6 points a game last year, while North Carolina was outscored by ACC opponents by an average of 21.5 points a game last season. The other is that the last time the Noles were in Chapel Hill the Heels beat them 41-9. That left a sore point the Noles would like to take care of this Saturday. Beating them 40-14 last year was part of it, and beating them in Chapel Hill will finish it.

7* Ole Miss -12.5
This line dipped to 12.5 for a few hours one day, and I grabbed it. I would still take this game up to -14 with confidence. There are those who will say Vandy always plays Ole Miss tight, and this is usually true. This game, however, is similar to the FSU-NC game in that Ole Miss is much more talented than Vandy, and they are going to come out fired up in a way they usually aren't for this game. It's the first game of the season and also the first SEC game. Also, the Rebels have worked hard all spring, summer, and fall towards being a more physical, hard-nosed team. They are bigger, stronger, faster, and more explosive than last year. They are also eager to demonstrate their new personality. Eli Manning is the best QB in the country, and has the second best (next to Georgia) set of WRs in the SEC to throw to. Not only that, they are determined to establish a running game this year, and have the moxie to do it, especially against Vandy's young defenders. On the other side of the ball, this will be the Rebs' best defense in years. I'll just say one thing about the 'Dores -- they are the youngest team in the SEC, with 16 of 22 starters being freshmen or sophomores. Only one senior starts, and there's only six on the whole team. Ole Miss, meanwhile, is loaded with experienced senior leadership. I think the Rebels will start off their season in fine style by outscoring Vanderbilt considerably.

 

[NY Reb]

I just cancelled out my -3.5 wager on BYU and bought a half-point to make it -3. Don't want to lose by a half point if it comes down to a field goal.

 

[AR182]

ny reb,

very nice writeups on your games.

right now i am on the fence on wf. i notice that bc is playing penn. st. next week, wonder if they are looking ahead to that game.


good luck this season.

 

[NY Reb]

OK, here are my two biggest plays this weekend, at the lines that I got them. (My 2 7*s are above.)

10* Mississippi St +5
Some of you might remember that early last season I warned everyone to get off Miss St and to hammer Oregon. The news that State QB was out and that RFR Kyle York was being throw to the wolves on a day's notice had not yet gotten to the media; I picked it up from an MSU message board and quickly shared it here. Outcome was that the Ducks plastered the Dawgs 36-13. This year's meeting is a big payback game for Jackie Sherrill, who has a long memory. Kevin Fant is starting Saturday, and although there was a "competition" for the starting job, there is absolutely no comparison between Fant and York. Fant, a 5th year senior, has been well known in Mississippi ever since he led his high school team to the state championship as a sophomore. He's probably the most underrated QB in the SEC, mostly because his team has had two below par seasons since he's been starting. Now he's primed for his best season ever, and he has a talented and dangerous group of WRs to throw to, which will prove important in this particlar game, as Oregon's secondary is their weak sport. MSU also has two Parade All-American's at tailback, and an OL that's long on talent if short on experience. If fact, the main thing that bothers me about this game is that State's two starting OGs are out, and their backups will be facing a couple of stud DTs in Oregon's Haloti Ngata -- the top DT in the country coming out of high school -- and Igor Shannksy, who both check in at over 300 pounds. The Dawg's defense will be more like their old selves this year. The DL is experienced and talented, and 6-6, 300 pound DT Tommy Kelly is a definite pro prospect. The linebackers boast 2 more Parade All-American's, while the secondary has another two themselves. Trouble is, all 6 these A-As are 5 sophomores and one freshman. Still, there's talent and potential galore. Add to this the fact that the Ducks are going to experience culture shock from the moment they land in Starkville. They are not going to enjoy the southern humidity or the raucous night crowd. Everything considered, I like MSU a lot in this game, which I fully expect them to win outright. The current line of +3.5 has a lot of value, as there's no way Oregon will win this more than a field goal, and that's if they bring their A game. Oregon might do better in the PAC, while State might do worse in the SEC, but for this particular game take the Bulldogs all the way.

10* Auburn -3
I watched this line move from a pick'em to -3 and then I jumped it before it rose even a half-point more. You can still find this at 3.5 at several books, and I advise you to buy the hook, as a field goal could easily decide this game. These are two of the most talented squads in the land. USC could beat anyone on a given day, as they have premier talent across the board. Their offense will be proficient and their defense nasty. However, much like Oregon, this will not be a good night to venture into the South. They will not enjoy Jordon-Hare stadium, as the volume gets intense from the almost 90,000 bloodthirsty Auburn supporters. Everyone knows about Auburn's RBs, but few fully appreciate QB Jason Campbell, who's going to be coming into his own this year. He's finally ready to display his considerable physical talents. USC's WRs will give the Tigers' secondary some matchup problems, but brand new QB Matt Leinart will experience a shaky and uncomfortable initiation in this situation. All things considered, I see Auburn winning by around 10, and by a touchdown at the least. Again, these are two of the top teams in America, and this should be one of the season's very best games, with the home team coming out on top.

 

[NY Reb]

To put it all in perspective, here are all the games I'm taking through Saturday:

Thursday
7* BYU -3

Saturday
5* South Florida +17.5
5* Wake Forest +12.5
5* Clemson +3.5
5* Oklahoma St +8
5* Connecticut -5.5
7* Florida St -15.5
7* Ole Miss -12.5
10* Auburn -3
10* Mississippi St +5

Good luck to everyone, and enjoy your weekend!

 

[Rebel21]

Thanks for the picks and writeups Reb...look forward to following you throughout the year. We did real well here in Oxford following your plays last year. I love the Rebel pick for this weekend. Vandy usually plays us close...not this time.