A NY Perspective -- October 14-16

NY Reb

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Guys, I have had a terrible start this season in college football. My record is so collapsed it isn't even worth keeping up with it. A number of people have found my plays reliable for years, and I have not gotten the job done.

So, at least for now, take my opinions with a grain of salt. Or fade me. Whatever makes you money. I'll continue to throw my plays in there with some comments, and you take it for what it's worth. I'll do a single thread for each week, and keep a record for that week. In this first post are plays I am already on, including a couple of games I got on early in the week.

I'm still in the black in the NFL, going 35-20 and up around 90 units at this point. Check for my plays there on Sunday.

Guys, I have had a terrible start this season in college football. My record is so collapsed it isn't even worth keeping up with it. A number of people have found my plays reliable for years, and I have not gotten the job done.

So, at least for now, take my opinions with a grain of salt. Or fade me. Whatever makes you money. I'll continue to throw my plays in there with some comments, and you take it for what it's worth. I'll do a single thread for each week, and keep a record for that week. In this first post are plays I am already on, including a couple of games I got on early in the week.

I'm still in the black in the NFL, going 35-20 and up around 90 units at this point. Check for my plays there on Sunday.

Thursday:

7* Louisville +10
Just have a feeling that this is going to be where the 'Canes slip up this season. Louisville has some real talent, and you know they are focused for this one.

Saturday:

10* Utah -19
This line has gone up since I got it, but I still say take the play. This game is going to be a blowout. The Tarheels aren't going to have the heart to go against what Utah is going to do to them. This could get ugly.

7* Alabama -7
I know Bama has got a lot of injuries, but Southern Miss is going to miss their starting QB Almond on the road. Bama has the better talent by far, even with injuries, and should cover this TD spread.

7* Ole Miss +10
With the victory over South Carolina last week, the Rebels are starting to get their act together. Meanwhile, the Vols enjoy a stunning upset of powerhouse Georgia. Complacent Vols will run into hornet's nest in Oxford and could possibly be upset themselves. I might upgrade this play closer to the weekend. Also, here is something interesting I ran across. At Carib you can look to see what percent of players are on which teams. At this point, 97% of the bets are on Tennessee and 3% are on Ole Miss. Now which side do you want to be on?

More later.
 
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pirate fan

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I'm hanging with ya because I know when it turns around it will be a great ride. Good luck.
 

baltimore buc

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I like the Ole Miss pick. Two other consensus sites are VERY lopsided as well, and this line has stuck @ 10 all week (I haven't looked this AM yet).

Good Luck :)
 

NY Reb

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Thanks for the support, guys. Here's a few more:

10* Georgia -22.5
The Dawgs are going to be biting mad after losing to Tennessee last week, and Vandy isn't in a position to do a thing about it in Athens. Vandy's spirit should be sufficiently crushed now after losing to Navy and Rutgers in the last quarter. Dawgs should win by a minimum of 30 in this spot.

7* Auburn -13
More and more Auburn is looking like the team everyone expected them to be last year. This season they really have it together, and are very balanced on offense and defense. Jason Campbell has seen it all in 4 years, and now as a senior his experience is paying off big. Arkansas wasn't looking too hot to begin with, and now have major injuries. They are 'sandwiched' right between La Tech and Kentucky, and the Tigers will tee off on this bunch.

7* Wisconsin +7
I'm grabbing this nice dog play out of the Big 10. I don't follow the Big 10 that closely, but I know a solid play when I see one. I am wondering how the Badgers feel about being someone's homecoming opponent? I think their defense will rise to the occasion, and Anthony Davis will get enough yards to keep it close.
 

mudcat

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Louisville/Miami

Louisville/Miami

Hey Reb, ow ya been! Haven't posted since last college basketball season, I think? Getting old.
Like your pick on Louisville tonight, think they keep it close, real close. They are loaded on offense and don't be surpirsed if you see the option pass from M. Bush. He was a really good QB in high-school who has been playing HB for the Cards. The QB, Laflores, is very mobile and Louisville will be moving the pocket tonight to give him a little more time to pick his targets. They have four very good RBs they platoon, and each one is capable of breaking a long one at anytime. Oh, and thet have a pretty good defense as well.
Good Luck tonight NYReb.

Mudcat
 

gman2

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NY Reb said:
At this point, 97% of the bets are on Tennessee and 3% are on Ole Miss. Now which side do you want to be on?

with the rebels playing the way they are right now? gimmie the 97% side.

kidding.

but seriously, if ole miss doesnt cover this week, then they wont for the rest of the season and theres no sense chasing a cover from them.

theyre in a great spot this weekend and theres no excuse for them not to stay within 7 or 8, as bad as they are.
 

Rebel21

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just a little side note...

TN beat a top 5 team on the road last week and is favored by 10 at ole miss...

The same Ole Miss team that beat ARKANSAS STATE at home by a TD...thats right, 7 points...now if TN = ASU then you might be on to something...but if TN doesnt = ASU it might be a long night for the REBS...

So you are telling me Cutcliffe is gonna magically turn this team into world beaters this week???

I just dont see it happening. Respect you and your picks NY but I just dont see this happening...
 

NY Reb

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I think Miami is being exposed tonight, just as I suspected. I'm feeling really good about being on Louisville. We'll see what happens in the second half.

You guys don't like my play on Ole Miss? Well, I didn't expect it to be wildly popular. Hopefully that is a good sign.

Best of luck to each of you.
 

NY Reb

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I'm not making these official plays, but just to juice up the 2nd half a little bit I'm placing small wagers on Louisville +6.5 and over 23.5.
 

Devil Dog

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NY Reb

NY Reb

I was looking @ Mississippi also and they made my " Lean" list. This is Tennesssee's QB's 2nd road game of their career off a upset road win: I suspect that some of the VOLUNTEERS are still talking about last week's win over Georgia -12. It's a good situation for the Rebels as they are off a upset win over S. Carolina on the road and are now @ home. This game will be a sell out with the crowd excited. Mississippi will play hard. I just wished they had a few more pts; they could cover this number but I see no value with 10 Pts.
You are a super capper. We all have swings work threw it.
Best Wishes
Devil Dog
 

Hailing Victor

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Have to disagree with the Ole Miss play (on the 97% side).

The 2 feshmen have a llil less pressure on the road because they cant see the faces of as many classmates in the stands when they turn around. Ole Miss is a different kind of environment to play in, but the Ole Miss D-line wont be able to stop the run or get to Ainge fast enough to stop the crossing dink and dunk, and then will get burned by the 30 - 40 yard pass by the end of the second quarter. Really see the best line of Tennessee in the 1st half. Tennessee is gonna have fun at this one and will probably win by 3 TD's. Just my Opinion

Like some of your other plays though.
Best of luck, but for my sake hope your wrong on some of them.
 

NY Reb

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Interesting points above, guys. Thanks for contributing to the thread.

Here's a little tidbit about the Ole Miss game. Someone mentioned the Rebel's DL won't be able to contain the Vols rushing attack. This might turn out to be true, but a little sidenote is that 2 of the Rebels' best DTs are finally ready to go this weekend after not playing any this year due to injury. They are Daniel Boone, the only returning starting from last season's front 6, and Chris Herring 6-2 and 310, who was an All-American linebacker in high school and an All-American DT last year in juco. The presence of these two players could possibly impact how the DL plays on Saturday.

Here are some new plays:

10* South Carolina -12.5
I don't think the Cocks enjoyed losing to Ole Miss last week, and they will unleash their wrath on Kentucky, who can't do very much to stop it. Most of you know I'm not exactly a stats and trends guy, but here's a couple of pertinent ones. The Cocks are 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS as an SEC road favorite. They have also covered their last 7 trips to Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are 2-6 SU & ATS against South Carolina since 1996. Also, the home team is 2-10 ATS in this series.

5* Arizona St +10.5
I am grabbing this one from the Pac 10, which is not exactly my neighborhood. Still, I think the Sun Devils will keep this one very respectable. If I knew the teams a little better, this one would probably be rated higher.

5* NCSt/M'land under 44
A rare totals play for me.

7* Teaser: UAB +1, over 52.5
One of my same-game teasers is what I have for Friday's game so far. I feel the teaser is very strong. Meanwhile, I'll be back later with another play or two on tonight's game.
 

NY Reb

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All Saturday's plays:

10* Utah -19

10* Georgia -22.5

10* South Carolina -12.5

7* Alabama -7

7* Ole Miss +10

7* Auburn -13

7* Wisconsin +7

7* Oklahoma -20

7* Memphis -23

5* Arizona St +10.5

5* NCSt/M'Land under 44

5* Teaser: Clemson -15.5, over 48.5
 

NY Reb

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Thanks, ahhruff. Hope you enjoy a great weekend.

More same-game teasers:

7* South Carolina -6, under 50.5

7* Ole Miss +17, over 44

7* NC State +9, under 51.5
 

ahhruff

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Great day today Reb!!! Only a matter of time until a capper of your ability got back on track. Finish the 2nd half of the season out strong.
 
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