A rarity....

[Sun Tzu]

I generally never bet on Texas games unless it is against them, I love the General, and I dont bet against Tech at home. But the Horns will win tomorrow. Not sure what others think, but I was stunned Tech wasnt favored.


And it doesnt hurt that at every gambling site I know of every single poster has Tech.

 

[fla]

I know what you mean. Tech as a home dog (or at least they were) looks too good.

 

[vyrus858]

I just cant believe everyone is on tech, I just almost am positive this is a lost wager lol...Well see what happens, but seems FAR to suspicious

 

[Felonious Monk]

I just cant believe everyone is on tech

why WOULDN'T people jump on a good home dog?

 

[fla]

That is the truth and that is the point. I think Texas was a 1' point favorite at Mizzou. It doesn't make sense that they opened the same way at Tech.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Well 1 they arent the dog right now. 2 if the line is too good to be true it probably is. 3, almost without fail, whenever is on one side, they lose. 4, if you are one to consider the "line" in making a play, the line tells you the play is Texas. It was absolutely begging for Tech money. I wouldnt have even considered playing Texas if the line had been what i had expected. On paper there is no doubt Tech looks like a great play, which makes the line even more suspicious.

 

[fla]

:iagree:

 

[Felonious Monk]

like I mentioned in another thread, I think Vegas opened the line with Texas favored because of the Tomaszek uncertainty and Texas owning the series lately, anticipating money to come in on the Horns.

I don't always believe in the myth where a highly regarded team fails to cover more often than not. Our resident member "MR. LOCK" proved that theory unavailing when his "Costanza" plays resulted in a losing cause.

Arguments can be made for taking either team. I doubt we'll see a blowout here as it should come down to the wire. I really don't see where all of the paranoia is coming from out of some posters. This is not a trap game.

 

[Cie]

I doubt we'll see a blowout here as it should come down to the wire.

Agreed, this should be a great game to watch. I took the horn's because I feel they are the deeper and more balanced unit. On paper it seems like they should have their way on the glass.

GL:weed:

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Sun Tzu - I agree that when a line looks too good to be true it probably is, but I just don't think that's the case here. I think whenever you see a line that looks really suspicious to you, you're first instinct shouldn't be to jump on the other side, but instead see if there are some factors you haven't considered as to why this line would be set where it's at. I had to look twice at this line, but once I read that Tomaszek was questionable tonight and also saw that Texas has owned this series (going 9-1 in the last 10) this line seems absolutely spot on. With a healthy Tomaszek this line probably jumps to 4, which is right where it should be.

Not saying that you're wrong to pick Texas but IMO this does not qualify as one of those times where you should be making a decision based on the line being different than what you expect.

Also, there is by no means overwhelming support on Tech tonight. Last consensus site I checked had 65% on Tech and 35% on Texas. Sure it's a solid consensus play but it's still a far cry from a 78%-22% split we saw last week with the UNC-FSU game.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Maybe Tom... will have the game of his life, but Tech is Emmitt and 4 other people. If people cap this game based on that guy, who will undoubtedly end up in serious fould trouble as he is Tech's only post "presence" is making a serious mistake.

In any event, I may well turn out to be wrong. I have lost a posted Big 12 game yet as I am pretty choosy, but maybe I am due. But I follow these 2 teams very closely so while the line is a factor in my pick it isnt the only one.

 

[CAP5]

I agree with Felonious Monk, this isn't a trap game. Texas is favored due to its recent success against Texas Tech. As far as public teams go, Texas is right up there at the top of the list. Definitely a more public program than Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will win tonight!

GL

 

[johnnyonthespot]

OK, now I'm confused. You say that this game should not be capped based on Tomaszek, but then you say that he is Tech's only post presence. If that is true (and it pretty much is) then isn't it a pretty BIG capping factor when a team might be without it's only post player?

 

[NySportsfan]

Sun Tzu, I couldnt agree more. I tend to like betting road teams better, especially games around pick em or dogs of a few points, usually that means that if on a neutral court, the road team would be fav, but line is only equal b/c of home court, so I like getting the more talented club. Texas Tech is 15-2, but getting a point, or around even? Something stinks, I know you cant always go by traps, but I'll take my chances with Texas, wont be a real large bet as I dont love big mondays, but an average one I think is warranted, It's also regression to the mean, Texas Tech is not a 15-2 team, I just dont think they can withstand that pace, just my 2 cents, I usually dont post about games but I felt like giving my opinion

Mike

 

[c note]

the line move confuses me some.....pinnacle has now moved the line to ttech -1.5.....i know how sharp pinnacle is....line move makes me think a little bit....texas seems like the right play.....now a 3pt swing from one of the sharpest books out there :shrug: