A Sneak Peek At CFB 2018 News/Views/Highlights !

[Cnotes53]

Fresno State Breakdown
July 31, 2018

Jeff Tedford finished ninth in last season?s voting for National Coach of the Year by the Associated Press. Truth be told, the job he did at Fresno State was as good any other work done at any school in the country.

Tedford transferred from Cerritos College to Fresno State as a player in 1981. After a pair of seasons as the starting QB, he held the school?s record for career passing yards (4,872) and touchdown passes (35).

Tedford returned to his alma mater last year after the Bulldogs went 3-9 in 2015 and 1-11 in 2016. All the new head coach did was guide a nine-win turnaround when Fresno State went 10-4 straight up and cashed tickets at a lucrative 10-2-2 against-the-spread clip. Tedford?s team won the Mountain West Conference?s West Division by going 7-1 in league play.

Fresno State lost merely 14 lettermen and returns eight starters on offense and seven on defense. Let?s also remember that two of the Bulldogs? four losses came in back-to-back games at top-ranked Alabama and at sixth-ranked Washington in Weeks 2 and 3. They covered the spread as huge underdogs in both instances.

After beating Boise State 28-17 as a seven-point home underdog in its regular-season finale, Fresno State had to travel to the smurf turf to face the Broncos again the next week in the MWC Championship Game. Tedford?s team dropped a 17-14 decision to BSU, but it took the cash as a nine-point road underdog.

Fresno State finished the year on the right note by capturing a 33-27 win over Houston as a two-point underdog at the Hawai?i Bowl. The Bulldogs went 6-0 ATS with three outright wins as ?dogs last season.

Marcus McMaryion started seven games at quarterback for Gary Andersen at Oregon State during the 2015 and ?16 campaigns. When Andersen quit on the Beavers, McMaryion decided to transfer. He took over the starting job in Week 4 and never let go of it.

McMaryion went 9-2 in his 11 starts, throwing for 2,726 yards with a 14/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He completed 62.1 percent of his throws and had a QB Rating of 137.7. He also showed mobility by rushing for 302 yards and four TDs with a 5.3 yards-per-carry average.

McMaryion loses second-leading wide receiver Da?Mari Scott (57 catches for 566 yards and one TD), but eight players who had 11 receptions or more are back. Senior WR KeeSean Johnson was a first-team All-MWC selection last season when he hauled in 77 receptions for 1,013 yards and eight TDs. Phil Steele?s preseason magazine ranks Johnson No. 72 among the nation?s best WRs eligible for the 2019 NFL Draft.

Senior WR Jamire Jordan has 33 career starts to his credit. Steele has him as a preseason second-team All-MWC pick after making 27 catches for 562 yards and three TDs in ?17. Junior TE Jared Rice is also a preseason second-team All-MWC selection in Steele?s mag. Rice had 22 receptions for 388 yards and two TDs last year. The wideout group also adds WR Michiah Quick, a former four-star recruit for Oklahoma who started four games for the Sooners over three years before electing to leave as a grad transfer.

Fresno State brings back its top three RBs, including last season?s leading rusher. That would be sophomore Jordan Mims, who ran for 627 yards and six TDs with a 4.2 YPC average as a freshman. Junior Josh Hokit produced 583 rushing yards and seven TDs with a 4.6 YPC average, while sophomore Ronnie Rivers ran for 480 yards and five TDs with a 4.8 YPC average. This trio of RBs in joined by Romello Harris, a transfer from Washington St. who sat out last season.

Steele?s Unit Rankings for the MWC has the Bulldogs ranked No. 2 at the QB position, No. 6 at RB, No. 1 at WR and No. 6 on the offensive line. As for the defense, it?s ranked No. 8 on the defensive line, No. 2 at the LB position and No. 3 in the secondary. They?re tabbed eighth on special teams and fourth in team chemistry.

Tedford?s defensive coordinator from last year, Orlondo Steinauer, went back to coach in the CFL where he was prior to coming to Fresno. His replacement is Bert Watts, who was the LBs coach here in ?17 and was the DC at UC Davis from 2013-16 after serving as a Denver Broncos assistant in ?12.

Watts inherits a defense that returns its top seven tacklers from a unit that allowed only 17.9 points per game. Junior Jeffrey Allison garnered first-team All-MWC honors by recording 126 tackles, the third-most in the league. Allison also contributed 3.5 tackles for loss, three passes broken up, two sacks, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery.

Five other Fresno State defensive players made Steele?s preseason All-MWC squads. LB George Helmuth and DB Jaron Bryant are second-team picks, DB Juju Hughes and Mike Bell are third-team selections and LB James Bailey is a fourth-teamer. Punter Blake Cusick is a fourth-team All-MWC selection as well.

Helmuth, a senior, had 89 tackles, four sacks, four TFL?s, five QB hurries, one PBU and one forced fumble last year. Bryant produced 67 tackles, seven PBU, four interceptions, two pick-sixes, 2.5 TFL?s and one forced fumble.

Fresno State?s season win total is eight flat (-110 either way) at both The Westgate SuperBook and the South Point Hotel in Las Vegas. 5Dimes.eu has Tedford?s bunch with the second-shortest odds (+595, risk $100 to win $595) to win the MWC Championship Game behind only Boise State, the -173 ?chalk.? The Bulldogs are 2,000/1 longshots to win the College Football Playoff at the offshore website.

5Dimes.eu has Fresno State listed as a 12.5-point road underdog in its Friday night trip to Bronco Stadium to face BSU on Nov. 9. Not only will the Bulldogs be playing on the road on a short week, they?ll also be in a back-to-back road spot and on the road for the third time in four weeks. 5Dimes.eu has Fresno State installed as a two-point home favorite vs. San Diego State on Nov. 17 in a game that?ll almost certainly decide the MWC?s West Division.

Fresno State will most likely be favored in nine of its 12 regular-season games. In addition to the road assignment in Boise, the Bulldogs will probably be underdogs in consecutive road tilts at Minnesota and at UCLA in Weeks 2 and 3. However, it won?t be a shocker if they win either of these contests. Both Power Five schools are off losing seasons and will be breaking in new starting QBs.

There?s another tough non-conference game on the slate at home vs. Toledo on Sept. 29. Fresno State will have the benefit of two weeks to prepare for the Rockets, who throttled the 1-11 Bulldogs by a 52-17 count at The Glass Bowl in 2016.

Toledo is one of the MAC?s top programs and has one of the country?s top group of WRs, but it must replace the school?s all-time leading passer in Logan Woodside (10,514 yards). The Rockets, who finished 11-3 last season, will have a new starting QB who will be making his first career road start at Fresno State.

There are three additional spots that could present danger for Tedford?s squad. Fresno State play at Nevada on Oct. 6 and hosts Wyoming on Oct. 13. The Bulldogs will be favored in both instances, but those aren?t layups. A Nov. 3 trip to Sam Boyd Stadium to play at UNLV is a vintage look-ahead situation, and Tony Sanchez will have his best team since getting hired by the Rebels. They have the league?s best RB in Lexington Thomas and one of the conference?s top signal callers in Armani Rogers.

Nevertheless, I think Fresno State will prevail against the Wolf Pack, Cowboys and Rebels. Again, the Bulldogs can certainly pull an upset out of their three toughest road games at Minnesota, at UCLA and at BSU, and I think they win their other nine games.

Prediction: I like to have a 1.5-game cushion between my prediction for a team and its season win total. I?m only calling for Fresno State to go 9-3, but I?ll still suggest a 1.5-unit play on the Bulldogs to go ?over? eight victories.

**B.E.?s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Steele has Fresno State at No. 24 in the nation in his Experience Rankings.

-- Steele has Fresno State at No. 57 in the country in his Preseason Power Rankings. He predicts the Bulldogs to finish the year at No. 41 in the nation. They?ll face Colorado in the Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium, according to Steele?s Bowl Projections.

-- After limping to a 2-10 spread record as a road underdog in 2015 and ?16, Fresno State went 4-0 ATS as a road underdog last season.

-- Steele has the Bulldogs? schedule ranked as the eighth-toughest among MWC teams and No. 98 out of 130 FBS schools.

-- In Steele?s National Unit Rankings, Fresno State is No. 55 at the QB position, No. 26 at WR, No. 32 at LB and No. 47 in the secondary.

-- Fresno State finished 2017 at +1,013 in total yards against its 14 opponents and was plus eight in turnover margin.

-- Fresno State had lost six straight bowl games before knocking off Houston in Honolulu last year. The Bulldogs hadn?t won a postseason game since defeating Ga. Tech at the 2007 Humanitarian Bowl on the smurf turf in Boise.

-- In 2019, Fresno State plays at USC and Minnesota comes to Bulldog Stadium. The Bulldogs play at Colorado and at Texas A&M in 2020 and then in ?21, they play at Oregon and at UCLA. They?re at USC again in ?22 and ?25 and get to host Oregon State in ?22 before travelling to Corvallis in ?24.

 

[Cnotes53]

Clemson controls ACC, are national elite
July 31, 2018

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) Dabo Swinney has built Clemson into an every-year power with regular College Football Playoff appearances and a recent national championship. None of that could've happened without first asserting unquestioned control of the Atlantic Coast Conference.

The Tigers open practice this week as the overwhelming favorite to become the first team to win four straight ACC titles since Florida State's romp through the 1990s. They also could become only the second power-conference team to win four straight league championship games.

''I didn't sit back and say, `Well we're Clemson and we're going to go out there and everybody's going to try to catch us,''' Swinney said during the ACC Kickoff preseason media days. ''But I definitely envisioned Clemson being one of the best programs in the country, and I envisioned this league growing and becoming one of the most dominant leagues in the country.''

Indeed, the Tigers' rise helped the ACC climb onto level footing with its touted Southeastern Conference neighbor.

It wasn't long ago that Clemson was chasing Florida State in the ACC's power-heavy Atlantic Division . The Seminoles won three straight ACC titles from 2012-14 while going 26-1 against league teams - 3-0 against Clemson - and winning a national championship in the final BCS season of 2013. But the Tigers followed that with their own impressive run, giving the league a sustained stretch of top-flight success while putting the ACC alongside the SEC as the only leagues to reach all four playoffs.

Clemson is 25-2 against ACC teams in the past three seasons, with 18 wins by double-digit margins. The losses at home against Pittsburgh in 2016 and at Syracuse last year came by a combined four points. And last year's 38-3 rout of then-No. 7 Miami made Clemson only the fifth team to win at least three straight power-conference championship games since the SEC held the first in 1992, a group featuring FSU, Alabama in the SEC (2014-16) and Oklahoma in the Big 12 (2006-08).

Another December crown in Charlotte would allow Clemson to join Steve Spurrier's Florida teams in the SEC (1993-96) as the only power-conference schools to win four straight league title games.

''It all goes together: their budgets are elite, their facilities are elite and they're able to recruit and attract the elite players,'' said Boston College coach Steve Addazio, whose Eagles face the Tigers annually in the Atlantic. ''So they're a `Have' - that's the best way I can say it.''

Clemson is on the verge of the ACC's longest reign since Bobby Bowden's Seminoles arrived in 1992 and won at least a share of the title for nine straight seasons, going 70-2 in the nine-team league.

John Swofford got a close look at those Seminoles, first as a competitor as North Carolina's athletics director before becoming ACC commissioner in 1997. He told The Associated Press that Clemson's run ''does compare favorably'' because today's 14-team league ''is considerably better.''

''I don't think there's anything wrong with a league having a dominant team when that dominant team is without question a premier team nationally,'' Swofford said. ''And that's exactly what we have in Clemson.''

Yet offensive lineman Mitch Hyatt and defensive lineman Clelin Ferrell dismissed questions about a gap between Clemson and everyone else.

''I wouldn't say that,'' Ferrell said. ''You can talk about that as far as the past years, it might be a big gap. ... This 2018 team hasn't done anything. There's not really a gap as far as what we've done.''

Besides, Hyatt noted, there have been close calls. There was a hang-on-for-dear-life home win against Louisville and eventual Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson in 2016. There were one-possession margins in ACC title games against North Carolina in 2015 and Virginia Tech in 2016. And North Carolina State played Clemson within a touchdown the past two years, including a 2016 overtime road loss after missing a short winning field goal at regulation's end.

''It's just executing in the final 2 minutes of the game,'' Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren said. ''We missed a kick two years ago and had a couple of penalties (last year), and that's us, that's not them. So we've got to execute under pressure better - period.''

But Doeren's observation underlines another way the Tigers are equipped to fend off challengers. There's a big-game-tested core from playoff routs of Oklahoma and Ohio State along with unforgettable title-game thrillers against Alabama, with the Crimson Tide winning in 2015 and the Tigers claiming the rematch before Alabama won Round 3 in last year's semifinals.

Swinney isn't changing his ''you get what you earn'' approach, either, even as the Tigers keep bringing trophies home to Death Valley.

''A big thing is Coach Swinney told us not to beat ourselves,'' Hyatt said. ''We have the talent to win. We have the players, we have the coaches - we have everything we need to win.''

---

 

[Cnotes53]

Handicapping Rutgers (4)
August 1, 2018

The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have not won more than four games in a season since 2014, so it makes sense that oddsmakers have the win total for Rutgers for 2018 listed at four. The good news for Rutgers is that they have three winnable non-conference games. The bad news is that they may do well to win just one game in the Big Ten. Let?s look at the schedule for Rutgers for this season to see if they will go over or under their win total of four.

2018 Rutgers Scarlet Knights Season Win Total
Over 4 (-130)
Under 4 (+100)

2018 Rutgers Scarlet Knights Schedule Analysis

Sept. 1 Texas State

It doesn?t get any easier for Rutgers than the season opener. Texas State is ranked 127th out of 130 college teams in ESPN?s rankings. Texas State has not beaten a team from a Power 5 conference since becoming an FBS team, losing all seven games by an average score of 46-12.

Sept. 8 at Ohio State

Forget about Rutgers winning this game, as the Buckeyes have won all four previous meetings and Ohio State is considered a national title contender.

Sept. 15 at Kansas

This is a key game for Rutgers if they are to have a successful season. Rutgers won 27-14 at home in 2015, but Kansas is expected to be improved this season and the Jayhawks will believe they can win this one.

Sept. 22 Buffalo

The Scarlet Knights have won five of the six previous meetings. Buffalo is not a bad team, as they went 6-6 last season, but this is still a game that Rutgers should win at home.

Sept. 29 Indiana

The all-time series is tied 2-2. Indiana has a new starting quarterback this season in Brandon Dawkins and they are very capable of going into Rutgers and getting the win.

Oct. 6 Illinois

This is another series that is tied 2-2. The Scarlet Knights won 35-24 at Illinois last season. This is simply a must-win game for Rutgers at home. If the Scarlet Knights are to finish with at least four wins they need to already be at that number after this contest, because they may not win another game the rest of the season.

Oct. 13 at Maryland

This series is tied 4-4 and it was Rutgers winning 31-24 at home last season. Three of the four games against Maryland in Big Ten play have been decided by a TD or less.

Oct. 20 Northwestern

Rutgers has actually won all three previous meetings against Northwestern, but all of those wins were many years ago. This will be the first-ever meeting between the teams in Big Ten play.

Nov. 3 at Wisconsin

The Badgers are going to win this one at home, so it is just a matter of Rutgers getting out of this one without getting too beat up.

Nov. 10 Michigan

The Wolverines lead the all-time series 3-1. Michigan is considered a national title contender and they should have far too much for Rutgers in this one.

Nov. 17 Penn State

This is another likely loss for Rutgers. Penn State leads the all-time series 26-2. It is hard to see Rutgers being competitive in this one.

Nov. 24 at Michigan State

The losing streak at the end of the season will likely continue here, as the Spartans return 21 starters from last season.

2018 Rutger Scarlet Knights Regular Season Win Total Prediction

Rutgers is not likely to win six games and make a bowl, but they could get to four or five wins. The question is will they go over or under their win total of four games. Looking at the schedule there are three games they should win against Texas State, Buffalo and Illinois. There are two games that they could win against Kansas and Indiana. The only other game in which they might have a chance is at Maryland.

The most likely scenario for Rutgers this season has them winning exactly four games. If we were going to play the win total one way or another, we would probably lean to the under simply because there is very little margin for error for Rutgers to get to five wins.

 

[Cnotes53]

Pac-12 Season Outlook
August 1, 2018

August has officially arrived and that means we will have college football games to wager on by the end of the month. It also means that my preseason look at conferences has to speed up a bit as this week it's onto the Pac-12. You can find my previous previews on the other conferences I've already discussed:

The story of the Pac-12 in 2018 is about a lot of turnover up and down the conference. Top level QB talent in the country like Sam Darnold (USC) and Josh Rosen (UCLA) have moved onto the next level, and we've even got some old coaching faces in new places with Herm Edwards the new boss at Arizona State, and Chip Kelly the main man at UCLA.

Yet, the more things change in the Pac-12, the chances are we will see plenty of the old classics from teams in this conference once again. That means a shocking 'upset' loss in the first month by one of the higher ranked teams from this conference, a season filled with conference games where everyone beats up on everyone else and then nobody from the conference makes an appearance in the CFB Playoff, and just general parity throughout the entire conference.

Most Intriguing Pac-12 Future Bet

Anyone from the South Division not named USC to win Pac-12

If parity ends up being the name of the game in the Pac-12, a couple of things led me to the idea of backing a couple of South teams not named USC to win the Pac-12 title:

One, the Pac-12 title game is still contested between the winners of the North and South divisions, and when three of the top four teams in the odds chart ? Washington -120, Stanford +700, and Oregon +900 ? all exist in the North Division, there is already a situation where much more value exists on South programs.

USC leads the way for all the South schools at +400, but in the post Sam-Darnold era where a freshman is going to likely start for the Trojans, can you trust this program not to be a favored candidate for that shocking early season loss that kills many Pac-12 teams every year? Not only is Darnold gone, but so are the Trojans leading rusher (Ronald Jones) and #1 WR (Deontay Burnett), so USC probably has a bumpier road ahead of them then many might expect.

Secondly, let's assume USC doesn't win the Pac-12 South with all the youth they've got. Then you get a situation where you have one of Utah (+1600), Arizona (+2000), UCLA (+2500), Arizona State (+4000) or Colorado (+5000) in a one-game, winner-take-all shot against whomever comes out of the North. That opens up plenty of hedging opportunities (if wanted) or you've got basically a +1600 ML or better ticket on a one-game scenario where the point spread is likely going to end up in single-digits. That's a highly intriguing scenario for me.

Now, obviously you don't want to be betting all of them, but if you're already high on the 2018 prospects for one of these two teams, I say go ahead and fire. USC might be charging more juice (-220) for going 'over' their season win total of 7.5 compared to Utah at (+100) to go over the same number, and then you've got the season win totals for Arizona sitting at 7.5 too (-140 for 'over'). It's between those two schools ? Utah and Arizona ? for me now as for which one to fire on, but it also never hurts to wait a few weeks to see which Pac-12 South teams look like real contenders.

Best Future Bet

Washington Under 10 wins (+100)

If the Pac-12 is going to be littered with parity in 2018 like I firmly believe, it would be a mistake not to take the ?projected? best team 'under' their win total, especially when they play in the deeper of the two divisions. I can already see the bulk of the Pac-12 being bunched up wit 6-6 and 7-5 records for a handful of teams and Washington's probably going to be on the bad side of a few of those losses.

Looking at the Huskies schedule, it's not hard to find three possible losses (that would be enough to at least push this bet should they win the Pac-12 title) considering they begin the year in Atlanta against the Auburn Tigers, have road trips to Utah, UCLA and Oregon during a five-week stretch that begins in mid-September, and probably get minimal home field advantage against a team like Stanford that can use their tremendous running game to take any crowd out of a contest. There could easily be three losses for Washington in those five games alone, and that's without talking about them being on the road at Washington State for the Apple Cup in the regular season finale. Things aren't going to come easy for this team this year and asking them to get to 11 wins is just too much.

Best Season Win Total Over Bet

UCLA Over 5.5 wins (+115)

Although picking an 'over' bet in the Pac-12 was similar to trying to pick a Pac-12 South not named USC earlier, I've settled on UCLA being the best candidate for a number of reasons. For one, the +115 odds is a nice return on asking a storied program like the Bruins to play .500 football, a goal that should feel like the floor in terms of the heights boosters want Chip Kelly to restore this Bruins program too. Kelly was a splash hire meant to turn this thing around in a hurry after they had to feel like they wasted Josh Rosen's years, and we should see some instant results for UCLA.

Secondly, for all of the flaws and mistakes we saw from Chip Kelly at the NFL level, the thing is, he's always had success at the college level and there are probably multiple reasons for that. One, Kelly can go out and handpick/recruit the type of player that has the attributes needed to success in his zone blocking, ultra-fast, run-style offense. The current Bruins aren't really going to be any of ?Kelly's guys? but that doesn't mean he hasn't been molding them into shape/believers like he did at his first year in Philadelphia with the Eagles.

Secondly, Kelly's zone blocking, ultra-fast, option-style offense works it's best when there is always some sort of physical mismatch either at the point of attack or on the line somewhere. That is always more prevalent in college football where it's 18-22 year olds, some of whom are still growing/filling out/maturing. It's a lot easier to find and exploit those mismatches at the college level and Kelly is a master at finding them from his time at Oregon. That shouldn't change now that he's at UCLA and while there are still defensive concerns UCLA has this year, this should end up being a .500 football team in Year 1 under Chip Kelly.

Who plays in the Big 12 Championship Game?

Stanford vs Utah

Your guess is probably as good as mine here given all I've discussed already in this piece, but I settled on Stanford vs Utah because I believe their commitment (and talent) to both the running game and being strong defensive football teams will prove to be the difference in the chaos that this Pac-12 Conference should end up being.

Both Stanford and Utah are projected to finish 2nd in their respective divisions based on many pronositcations out there and the actual odds themselves, so it's not like I'm taking a huge leap of faith here. Stanford's got arguably the most continuity on their roster this year compared to the bulk of their peers, and Utah is a team that's got a bigger home-field advantage than most think and they get to host both Washington and USC this year in games that might determine quite a bit in terms of this prediction coming true.

But really, I wouldn't be surprised to see any sort of combination in the Pac-12 title game this year because that's how close I see it breaking overall. One bad bounce in a game, one bad injury, or one freshman star shining through the clouds through the first 4-8 weeks of the season could have this entire conference flipped on it's head. What I do know though is this; Pac-12 underdogs in conference play are probably going to end up being a really good bet in 2018 with all the parity this conference should have.

 

[Cnotes53]

BC-FBC--College Football Preview Package,ADVISORY
August 3, 2018

To help you with planning ahead of the college football season, some of our plans in coming weeks. This digest will be updated through August. For questions, please contact Dave Zelio (dzelio(at)ap.org). All times Eastern.

Adds FBC--SUMMER JOBS package for Aug. 8, FBC--ALLEN'S LAST CHANCE for Aug. 20.

TOP 25 POLL

The 2018 preseason Top 25 will be released on Monday, Aug. 20, at noon. The weekly poll will begin on Tuesday, Sept. 4, and will then be sent every Sunday at 2 p.m. through the rest of the regular season. The final poll will be sent roughly an hour after the national championship game the evening of Monday, Jan. 7. This is the 83rd year of the Top 25 poll.

PRESEASON ALL-AMERICA

The AP will release its preseason All-America team on Tuesday, Aug. 21 at noon. The first AP All-America team was selected in 1925, a decade before the first Heisman Trophy. The same expert panel of 61 sports writers and broadcasters from AP-affiliated media around the country who decide the Top 25 will select preseason All-America players for each position for first and second teams.

TEAM PREVIEWS

All team previews, written in a things-to-know style, will move on Thursday, Aug. 16. Each preview will be approximately 700 words, with photos.

CONFERENCE PREVIEWS (each approximately 800 words, with photos.

Aug. 13: SEC, Pac 12

Aug. 14: Big Ten, Atlantic Coast

Aug. 15 Big 12, Mountain West

Aug. 17: Remaining Group of Five conference previews

MAIN EVENTS

FBC--REDSHIRT RULE

Under a new NCAA rule change, football players will be able get into four games and still take a redshirt season. The shift is a boon for coaches, who are taking a whole new look at roster management. By College Football Writer Ralph D. Russo. SENT: 800 words, photos Aug. 1.

FBC--SLOWING DOWN

College football's offensive revolution is literally slowing down. For the third straight season possessions per game dropped and 2017 saw a significant drop in plays per game, which led to less scoring. The ''fast football'' craze sparked by the likes of Oregon appears to be fading. By College Football Writer Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 800 words, photos by noon Aug. 6.

FBC--YEAR OF THE DEFENSIVE LINEMAN

CHESTNUT HILL, Mass. - In college football's year of the defensive lineman, Boston College's Zach Allen is not getting the publicity of Clemson's four potential first-round draft picks, the latest Bosa harassing quarterbacks at Ohio State or Houston's Ed Oliver. But the NFL scouts are well aware of Allen, too. With an obsessive dedication to an early-to-bed-early-too-rise routine and strict diet of George Foreman Grill meals, Allen has put himself on the same level as all those former five-star prospects. By College Football Writer Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 750 words, photos by noon Aug. 9. With FBC--PICK SIX-DEFENSIVE LINEMEN.

FBC--HOW TO MAKE A SCHEDULE

Touting the strength of a schedule has become all the rage in the College Football Playoff era. Schools and conferences want to schedule to impress the selection committee, but the driving factor in most scheduling decisions is the budget. By College Football Writer Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 700 words, photos by noon Aug. 22.

SUMMER JOBS

FBC--SUMMER JOBS

College football players do not have a much of an offseason, and summer tends to be no break. Still, Arizona State's Kyle Williams has managed to take steps toward his long-term goal of becoming an orthopedic surgeon over the last two summers. Williams has been shadowing ASU's team doctor at the Mayo Clinic. By Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 700 words, photos, video by 5 a.m. Aug. 8.

FBC--SUMMER JOBS-FARMER'S WORK

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. - Penn State linebacker Koa Farmer loves crime-solving television shows like ''CSI,'' ''Law & Order'' and ''Bones.'' Last summer, he got a taste of what it's like to solve real crimes. His internship involved ride-a-longs with federal agents and Maryland police and work with forensics experts. By Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 500 words, with photos, video by 5 a.m. Aug. 8.

FBC--SUMMER JOBS-IT'S A ZOO

ST. PAUL, Minn. - Minnesota defensive linemen Winston DeLattiboudere, a junior, and Jerry Gibson, a senior, worked this summer as security guards at the Como Park Zoo and Conservatory for the city of St. Paul, a few miles from campus. One of the Gophers coaches made the connection, and they both jumped at the opportunity to feed the giraffes, high-five the kids and help keep the zoo grounds safe. By Dave Campbell. UPCOMING: 600 words, photos and video by 5 a.m. Aug. 8.

Also:

- FBC--SUMMER JOBS-DALTON'S BLOG, K-State standout lineman Dalton Risner runs a popular blog. By Dave Skretta. UPCOMING: 700 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 8.

FEATURES

FBC--ALABAMA-QB SAGA

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. - Alabama has Tua Tagovailoa, hero of the national championship game, and Jalen Hurts, who has done little but win in two seasons as starter. The defending national champion Crimson Tide's quarterback competition figures to be one of the preseason's hottest topics. Coach Nick Saban wants it to play out on the field, not in the media. By John Zenor. UPCOMING: 700 words, photos by 5 p.m. on Aug. 7.

FBC--OKLAHOMA-MILLIONAIRE MURRAY

NORMAN, Okla. - It takes a special kind of swagger to follow Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield at quarterback, and Oklahoma's Kyler Murray definitely has it. For starters, the first-round Major League Baseball draft pick has signed for nearly $5 million to play for the Oakland A's. He's fully committed to football for one year, and if he can beat out Austin Kendall for the starting job, the speedster could be one of college football's most electrifying players. By Cliff Brunt. UPCOMING: 750 words, with photos by noon Aug. 11.

FBC--MISSISSIPPI ST-MOORHEAD AND FITZ

STARKVILLE, Miss. - Joe Moorhead earned his reputation as an offensive savant after rebuilding Penn State's attack over two seasons. Now the new Mississippi State coach will try to mesh his philosophy with veteran Nick Fitzgerald, who has been one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country over the past two seasons but is coming off a gruesome leg injury in last year's Egg Bowl. By David Brandt. UPCOMING: 750 words, photos by 5 p.m. on Aug. 12.

FBC--PENN STATE-RAHNE'S CHANCE

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. - No pressure, Ricky Rahne. Penn State's new offensive coordinator takes over a unit missing star running back Saquon Barkley and the man who made it hum, Joe Moorhead. But if he can keep things rolling in State College, he could be the next hot coordinator in college football. By College Football Writer Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 750 words, photos by 5 p.m. on Aug. 13. With FBC--PICK SIX-RISING COORDINATORS.

FBC--ALLEN'S LAST CHANCE

Dakota Allen still feels this is his last chance, even after a successful return to Texas Tech following a well-documented season at an East Mississippi junior college. After being Tech's second-leading tackler as a freshman in 2015, the linebacker was involved in an off-field incident which led to him being kicked off the team and out of school. He thought his football career was over. But he spent the 2016 season with the first team featured in Netflix's ''Last Chance U'' series, then got the opportunity to return to Texas Tech. He was a team captain last season and now goes into his senior year as a preseason All-Big 12 pick. By Stephen Hawkins. UPCOMING: 800 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 20.

SENT:

FBC--NEBRASKA-BUILD IT LIKE TOM

LINCOLN, Neb. - Scott Frost's job is to return Nebraska to the place it held in the college football hierarchy two decades ago. Frost is driven by his profound respect for his mentor Tom Osborne. Frost has said repeatedly Nebraska made a mistake moving away from the methods Osborne used on and off the field to make the Cornhuskers great. His plan is to bring back that identity. By College Football Writer Eric Olson. SENT: 800 words, photos on Aug. 2.

FBC--ACC-CLEMSON'S LEAGUE

CHARLOTTE, N.C. - Dabo Swinney has built Clemson into an every-year power with regular College Football Playoff appearances and a recent national championship. None of that could've happened without first asserting unquestioned control of the Atlantic Coast Conference. The Tigers open practice this week with two league losses in three seasons and as the overwhelming favorite to become the first team to win four straight ACC titles since Florida State's romp through the 1990s. By Aaron Beard. SENT: 790 words and photos on July 31.

SHAREABLES

- FBC--PICK SIX-GROUP OF FIVE, the top teams from the so-called Group of Five conferences. By Steve Megargee. UPCOMING: 650 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 6

- FBC--PICK SIX-IMPACT TRANSFERS, the top non-quarterback transfers who are ready to play. By Genaro C. Armas. UPCOMING: 650 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 7.

- FBC--PICK SIX-AWARD HOPEFULS, our way-too-early predictions for the top player awards. By Steve Megargee. UPCOMING: 650 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 8.

- FBC--PICK SIX-BACK FROM INJURY, top players back in the mix this season after injuries. By Steve Megargee. UPCOMING: 650 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 9.

- FBC--PICK SIX-HOT SEAT COACHES, which coaches may have the most to lose this season. By Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 650 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 10.

- FBC--PICK SIX-HEISMAN DARKHORSES, the top off-the-radar possibilities for the Heisman this season. By Joe Reedy. UPCOMING: 650 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 13.

- FBC--PICK SIX-GOOD PLAYERS ON BAD TEAMS, the best of the crop stuck on teams expected to struggle. By Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 650 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 14.

- FBC--PICK SIX-IMPACT FRESHMAN, the top freshman to watch this season. By Steve Megargee. UPCOMING: 650 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 15.

- FBC--PICK SIX-PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS, the four teams we think will make the College Football Playoff. By Ralph D. Russo. UPCOMING: 650 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 16.

- FBC--PICK SIX-CRITICAL GAMES, the race to the national championship includes a bunch of tantalizing matchups. By Noah Trister. UPCOMING: 650 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 17.

- FBC--PICK SIX-REDSHIRT FRESHMAN, the top youngsters to watch this season. By Steve Megargee. UPCOMING: 650 words, photos by 5 a.m. Aug. 18.

AP TOP 25 PODCAST

The AP Top 25 podcast is published weekly on Tuesday evenings. It can be found on APNews.com and iTunes .

AP SPORTS EXTRA: PRESEASON POLL PAGE

A paginated look at the preseason Top 25 poll will be available shortly after the poll is released on Aug. 20. The AP Sports Extra pages are available in full broadsheet, half broadsheet and tabloid size (perfect for preseason football tabs). They will include space for local advertising or content. The pages will focus on the 25 teams selected by AP poll voters with emphasis on those at the very top. The pages are available at no charge to all AP Sports subscribers. Contact Barry Bedlan at bbedlan(at)ap.org for more information.

DIGITAL NEWS EXPERIENCE

All the content in this advisory will be available through the College Football Digital News Experience, an all-digital presentation focused entirely on AP's college football coverage and anchored around the marquee Top 25 poll. The site, which is responsive to all devices, is available for free and pays a revenue share to participating sites. The DNE allows for local customization of the site logo, navigation bar, highlighted teams and other features, including embeddable widgets around the poll and Latest News. Some examples: http://collegefootball.ap.org/tampabay and http://collegefootball.ap.org/newsday . Contact your local sales representative or Barry Bedlan at bbedlan(at)ap.org to take advantage of this free digital offering.

 

[Cnotes53]

Handicapping Illinois (3.5)
August 6, 2018

The Illinois Fighting Illini have been a major bust under head coach Lovie Smith, as they are 5-19 overall and just 2-16 in the Big Ten in the last two seasons. The administration is being patient with Smith and hoping that the third year is when his team starts to turn the corner.

Illinois will have a new offensive coordinator in Rod Smith, but the team is still very young and they don?t have a proven quarterback. Let?s look at the schedule for Illinois to see if they will go over or under their win total of 3.5 for the 2018 season.

2018 Illinois Fighting Illini Season Win Total
Over 3.5 (+100)
Under 3.5 (-130)

2018 Illinois Fighting Illini Schedule Analysis

Sept. 1 Kent State

If Illinois is to have any chance to get to four wins then they simply have to win their opener. The Fighting Illini are 7-2 against the MAC since 2004, including a win over Kent in 2015.

Sept. 8 Western Illinois

This should be a win for Illinois against Western Illinois. It has been all Fighting Illini against weak teams, as they are 15-0 all-time against FCS teams since 2002. It should be noted, however, that Western Illinois is expected to be vastly improved this season.

Sept. 15 USF (Soldier Field)

If the Fighting Illini are going to show improvement then this is a game they need to win. They were routed last season by the Bulls in Tampa, so this is a revenge game for the Illini.

Sept. 21 Penn State

The Big Ten opener for the Illini is at home, but Penn State is considered an elite team and this will likely be a home loss for Illinois.

Oct. 6 at Rutgers

The Scarlet Knights are just 5-22 in the Big Ten since 2014 but one of those wins was against Illinois. This game looks like a toss-up.

Oct. 13 Purdue

The Boilermakers are 5-2 in their last seven games against Illinois. It is hard to see how Illinois keeps up with the high scoring offense of Purdue, even at home.

Oct. 20 at Wisconsin

The Illini are likely to get blown out in Madison. They have not won at Wisconsin since 2002.

Oct. 27 at Maryland

This will be the first meeting between the teams in Big Ten play. The Terps are expected to be improved this season and it is hard to see Illinois going on the road and winning this one.

Nov. 3 Minnesota

The Fighting Illini are 1-5 in the last six meetings against Minnesota. The Illini are at home and the Golden Gophers are not that good, so perhaps Illinois can get a conference win.

Nov. 10 at Nebraska

The Cornhuskers have a new head coach in Scott Frost and they have a much better offense than Illinois. This looks like a road loss for the Illini.

Nov. 17 Iowa

The Hawkeyes have dominated the Illini in recent seasons, winning the last four meetings. This is a letdown spot for Iowa, but they still have a lot more talent than Illinois.

Nov. 24 at Northwestern

The Illini have lost four of the last five in this series to Northwestern. It is hard to see Illinois going on the road and winning this one against a Northwestern team that won 10 games last season.

2018 Illinois Fighting Illini Season Win Total Prediction

The third season is oftentimes when a team shows the most improvement under a new head coach. Will that be the case for Illinois under Lovie Smith? The Fighting Illini are still a very young team, but there are some games on their schedule that are winnable in 2018. Illinois should be Kent and Western Illinois, but can they win another two games to get to four wins? The best chances look to be the home games against South Florida and Minnesota and the road contest at Rutgers.

Assuming Illinois lose all of the other games on their schedule they would have to win two of those three games to get to four wins. That seems a lot to ask from a young team with a freshman quarterback, so we?ll go under the win total for Illinois in 2018.

 

[Cnotes53]

2018 Pac-12 Preview
August 6, 2018

We?re Back

According to the Pac-12, a total of 178 starters, who started at least half of his team?s games or a majority of games at a specific position, return to Pac-12 football squads in 2018. That?s out of a possible 288 (including placekickers and punters) for an average of 14.8 starters returning per team.

Among those 178 returning starters are a number of key players, including 10 first-team and 12 second-team All-Pac-12 performers. Arizona, California, and Washington each return the most with 18 starters, followed by Oregon State with 16. Washington State returns the fewest starters with 10.

Newbies

Five new coaches enter the league this season. It?s the highest number of new coaches on the sidelines in one season for the Pac-12.

UCLA?s Chip Kelly returns for his second stint in the Pac-12. Kelly posted a 46-7 record in four seasons at Oregon (2009-12) and led the Ducks to the 2010 BCS title game. Other new coaches include Arizona?s Kevin Sumlin (averaged 8.7 wins over 10 seasons), Arizona State?s Herm Edwards (last coached in the NFL from 2001-08), Oregon?s Mario Cristobal (won three national titles as a player and an assistant coach), Oregon State?s Jonathan Smith (returns to his alma mater making his head coaching debut).

Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

ARIZONA (Offense ? *7/2, Defense ? 9/1, 51 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: A NEW TATE OF MIND

As is the undoing of many a successful man, it appears Rich?s rod likely sealed his fate. Such was the case when Arizona canned Rich Rodriguez, and his ghastly $6M salary, for sexual misconduct. Enter Kevin Sumlin and his in-your-face spread playbook, custom-designed for new phenom QB Khalil Tate, who burst on the scene in October last season. After being inserted into the starting lineup, Tate recorded a run of 70 more yards in each of his first four starts while earning an unprecedented four straight Pac-12 Player of the Week awards. Safe to say, Sumlin figures to utilize Tate to the max ? much like he did with dual-threat QB Johnny Manziel at Texas A&M ? to operate the Cats? potent 3rd ranked rushing attack. ?He?s moving from being an athlete that is a quarterback, to being a quarterback that's an athlete,? said Kevin Sumlin.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Freshmen started 25.2% of all Wildcats? games last season, the 3rd most in the nation.

PLAY AGAINST: at Washington State (11/17)

ARIZONA STATE (Offense ? *8/3, Defense ? 4/1, 42 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: IN-AND-OUT BURGER

The release of contentious head coach Todd Graham was considered a stunner. However, it was surpassed in magnitude when ASU brought in long-retired and longtime NFL head coach Herm Edwards, who hasn?t coached in college in 30 years ? and owned a 54-74 record as an NFL mentor. Yeah, head scratching, to say the least. So as we see it, a 46-game winner over the past six years was replaced with a zero-game coach over the last nine years. Smells like a lobbyist struck that deal. Meanwhile, heavy attrition hit a soft front seven. Against the backdrop of a new staff, new schemes and revamped lines of scrimmage, is a schedule laced with nine bowlers. Sorry, but we don?t see this experiment lasting long.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Arizona State ranked No. 120 in passing yards allowed in 2017 after ranking dead last (No. 128) the previous two seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: at Arizona (11/24)

CALIFORNIA (Offense ? *10/3, Defense ? 7/1, 56 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: GOOD NEWS BEARS

New coach Justin Wilcox?s defense lived up to its hype as the former DC guru improved the Bears? stop-unit by 88 YPG, its best overall effort since 2011. The offense, though, slipped mightily. Through it all, Cal came up one game shy of bowl eligibility despite the fact that freshmen accounted for 20.2% of all starts last season (only six teams started more). QB Ross Bowers is the Pac-12?s leading returner in passing yardage after throwing for 3,039 yards in 2017 (flash: he?s being pushed by South Carolina transfer QB Brandon McIlwain), and the running backs are deep and talented. Operating behind all five starters returning to the offensive line should help them blossom. Two other positives: Cal finished 37th nationally in turnover margin behind all the young talent, and the Bears will take on the 5th easiest schedule of all Power 5 schools in 2018 with foes going 76-77 (.497) last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Cal held Stanford, USC, Washington and Washington State below its season average in points and total yards last season.

PLAY ON: at USC (11/10)

COLORADO (Offense ? *5/3, Defense ? 7/2, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: THIRSTING FOR MORE

Like a mirage to a water-starved victim crossing the desert, the Buffaloes? 8-2 conference effort in 2016 surely looked like the real deal. After all, they had gone a measly 3-33 in conference play the previous four seasons. And then lo and behold, a 2-7 record in Pac-12 frays last year found them free falling again, ending the season with a losing record for the 11th time in the last 12 years. Things went so sideways that Colorado had forced a turnover in each of its previous 30 home games ? the longest skein in the nation ? until they hosted USC in their final game at Boulder last year. QB Steven Montez is one of only fours starters back on offense. Pass the canteen.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Colorado is 10-2 ATS in Last Home Games, including 7-0 ATS versus sub .700 opponents.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Oregon St (10/27) ? *KEY as a favorite

OREGON (Offense ? *7/3, Defense ? 7/2, 43 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: CRYSTAL BALL DIGS CRISTOBAL

Now with its third coach in as many seasons, the Ducks will soldier on under another new head coach in Mario Cristobal, an Oregon assistant last year and former boss at Florida International. The good news is that Oregon is 37-14 since 1995 the first season under a new head coach, including 24-3 at home. Better news is the Ducks will face the easiest Power 5 schedule in 2018 according to the NCAA, as foes this season were just 65-87 (.428) last year. Aside from a strong initial recruiting class, Cristobal welcomes back junior QB Justin Herbert. The 6? 6? 225-lb future NFL signal-caller went 6-2 last season before being shut down with a shoulder injury. It?s no coincidence OU led the nation in scoring (49 PPG) when Herbert was in the lineup. It?s important to note that Cristobal is extremely well liked by the players, who campaigned for his hire after Willie Taggart bolted for Florida State.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The straight-up winner ?in the stats? is 24-1 in Oregon games the last two years, including 13-0 last season.

PASS

OREGON STATE (Offense ? 7/4, Defense ? 8/1, 45 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MAPPING OUT A NEW PLAN

After two-and-a-half years the Gary Andersen experiment is over following a 7-23 record, including a paltry 3-18 mark in Pac-12 games. Mike Riley is returning to Oregon State ? only he will be joining Jonathan Smith?s staff as assistant head coach. Riley previously was the Oregon State head coach from 2003 to 2014, and also 1997 to ?98. Riley was fired Nov. 25 as head coach at Nebraska after going 19-19 over three seasons. Smith, a former Beavers quarterback, was a graduate assistant at Oregon State under Riley in 2003. If it sounds like a well-knit Beaver connection, it is. The key to getting back on the map will be finding a way to win conference games as OSU has dropped 26 of its last 29 Pac-12 performances.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Beavers have been out-yarded in each of their last 19 away games.

PASS

STANFORD (Offense ? *9/5, Defense ? 6/1, 63 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: DOWN ON THE FARM

While Stanford returns 9 starters on offense, the fact of the matter is they lost players to 4 NFL defections, plus 16 players from the 2-deep are gone. Only seven FBS schools lost more starters from last year?s depth charts, and only four schools saw more players leave early for the NFL. Nonetheless, the Cardinal have captured four Pac-12 championship games since 2012 under David Shaw. The big story is star RB Bryce Love?s decision to return to Stanford rather than leaving early for the NFL. The Heisman Trophy hopeful fuels a resurgence of offensive starters back for the Cardinal ? sans OC Mike Bloomgren, who leaves to take over the head coaching duties at Rice. QB K.J. Costello also returns after a strong second half last year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The 405 YPG allowed by Stanford last season was the most ever under HC David Shaw.

PLAY ON: vs. USC (9/8)

UCLA (Offense ? 5/2, Defense ? 7/2, 38 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NEXT MAN UP

On the 20th anniversary of its last Pac-12 conference championship, the UCLA brass has turned its football fortunes over to Chip Kelly, the former NFL and Oregon head coach, where he went 46-7 with three conference titles and an appearance in the BCS championship game with the Ducks. The biggest task at hand is filling the shoes set by record-setting QB Josh Rosen. Rest assured, Kelly will find his man. The other concern is patching a rush defense that was the worst for a Power 5 program in nearly 20 years. Remember this on your way out: since 1965 UCLA has had six consecutive non-winning seasons. They are 50-22-1 SU the following year while producing a winning record every season. Just sayin?.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chip Kelly is 28-1 SU against sub .800 college football opponents.

PLAY AGAINST: at Arizona State (11/10)

USC (Offense ? 7/4, Defense ? 7/1, 52 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: GREEN EGGS AND SAM

True freshman QB J.T. Daniels is expected to be behind center for the defending Pac-12 champion Trojans this season, replacing redshirt sophomore Sam Darnold, who left for the NFL. The only other true freshman signal-caller to start for USC was Matt Barkley who, like Daniels, hailed from Mater Dei High School in California. Note: Daniels carried a 4.16 Grade Average and graduated after only three years in high school. Last year?s 11-win campaign was especially impressive considering USC did not have a bye week. The Trojans can thank a Red Zone Defense that ranked No. 4 in the nation, but they were also the 5th worst team the nation in Most Penalties last season. It?s a good thing that head coach Clay Helton has out-recruited every team in the conference. He loses a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,500-yard rusher and a 1,100-yard receiver. Ouch.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: USC is 16-0 SU in the Coliseum under head coach Clay Helton.

PLAY AGAINST: at UCLA (11/17)

UTAH (Offense ? *8/4, Defense ? 6/1, 55 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: WINNINGHAM U

After appearing in every College Football Playoff ranking since its inception in 2014, the Utes extended the streak through the first three weeks in 2017 before finally bowing out. It?s a testament to head coach Kyle Whittingham, the holder of the highest bowl winning percentage (.917, 11-1) of any coach in NCAA history. It was confirmed in the NFL draft this season when Utah led the Pac-12 with eight selections, tying for the third-most in the country. QB Tyler Huntley and a handful of receiving targets are back in 2018, as well as four of last year?s five starting offensive linemen. They make up 18 full-or-part time starters from last season?s bowl-winning squad. Finally, former head coach Gary Andersen is also back as a DL coach.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Head coach Kyle Whittingham is 17-4 SU against the other four Power Five conferences.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Arizona (10/12)

WASHINGTON (Offense ? *8/4, Defense ? 9/1, 55 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: LOCKED AND LOADED

Chris Petersen planted the seeds for what may the most talented squad he?ll have in his tenure at Washington. It all started in 2015 when his ?young as hell? Huskies were force-fed with plenty of playing time. All of those underclassmen are now upper classmen and as a result, U-Dub welcomes a bevy of returning starters for the 2018 season. At the helm is 4th-year senior starting QB Jake Browning, who has tossed for a school record 9,104 yards while completing over 64% of his pass attempts and accounting for 90 touchdowns. In addition, 3-years starting RB Myles Gaskin is back with 4,055 rushing yards and 49 TDs. Add a fearsome front seven on defense and the Huskies appear headed to the playoffs once again this season ? especially going up against the 4th easiest schedule of all Power 5 schools in 2018 with foes going 73-80 (.477) last season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Chris Petersen?s .816 winning percentage is the 2nd highest among all active head coaches with at least 13 years of experience.

PLAY ON: vs. Arizona State (9/22)

WASHINGTON STATE (Offense ? 4/2, Defense ? 6/1, 41 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MAKING THE BEST OF A LOUSY SITUATION

The tragic suicide of heir-apparent backup QB Tyler Hilinski in January left fractured hearts and souls in the Washington State program. He was scheduled to fill the shoes of 4-year starting QB Luke Falk, who left with a jaw-dropping 14,881 passing yards on 68.3% completions and 119 TDs. In addition WSU?s top two WRs have transferred out of the program. On the defensive side of the ball, the Cougars lose Hercules Mata?afa, who led the Pac-12 in sacks and tackles for a loss last season. Making matters worse, the OL ranked No. 126 in sacks allowed last season. Meanwhile, former Minnesota head coach Tracy Claeys is the new defensive coordinator. He reunites with Cougar defensive line coach Jeff Phelps, who coached alongside Claeys at Minnesota from 2011-16.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Cougars are 10-1 ATS as conference road dogs under Mike Leach vs. winning foes off a SUATS win.

PLAY ON: vs. California (11/3)

 

[Cnotes53]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '18: Key transfers from Big House to Bayou
August 7, 2018

Coach Jim Harbaugh couldn't pass up a chance to deliver a coy response when asked about the quarterback situation at Michigan.

Going by numbers alone, there may not be much of a contest. Mississippi transfer Shea Patterson could be the new starter behind center this season.

Out of the SEC and into the Big House - the pressure won't let up.

Patterson could be the most pivotal transfer in FBS this season. Michigan is coming off an 8-5 season in which its offense floundered under Harbaugh, a former quarterback who had a reputation for developing QBs. But the Wolverines finished 109th in the country in yards per pass attempt in 2017.

''Quarterback position, don't have any announcements to make today about that,'' Harbaugh said at Big Ten media days.

Michigan opens the season Sept. 1 at Notre Dame and if Patterson is not the quarterback that will be even bigger news than his transfer to Michigan.

Patterson played three games as a freshman in 2016 at Mississippi, passing for 880 yards and six touchdowns. Last season, Patterson played the first seven games, throwing for 2,259 yards, 17 touchdowns and nine interceptions before tearing a ligament in his right knee.

He completed about 64 percent of passes.

In April, the NCAA granted Patterson's request to waive the usually required redshirt season at his new school, making him eligible to play this year at Michigan.

''Shea Patterson went through all of spring practice with our team and got great work in there. Played really well,'' Harbaugh said.

Some other notable names at new places:

SAIVION SMITH, DB, Alabama

It's a reloading year in the secondary for the defending national champions, who must replace all four starters. Smith, a junior college transfer and former five-star LSU signee, is among the talented reinforcements. He could have an immediate impact in a defensive backfield short on experience.

JOE BURROW, QB, LSU

The former Ohio State quarterback played behind J.T. Barrett for two seasons. Burrow will compete for a starting job with the Tigers, who are installing a new offense under new coordinator Steve Ensminger and have been searching for high-level quarterback play for a while.

ANTONIO WILLIAMS, RB North Carolina

Another former Buckeye , Williams was lined up behind two stars in Columbus. The former highly touted recruit cited opportunity and family in returning to his home state. Williams played one game with six carries as a freshman, then 12 more as a reserve last year.

ALOHI GILMAN, S, Notre Dame

Gilman sat out last year after transferring from Navy, where he made 76 tackles as a freshman. A versatile defender, Gilman could provide stability at a position where the Irish struggled in 2017.

WILTON SPEIGHT, QB, UCLA

While Patterson arrived, Wilton Speight left Michigan and headed to UCLA , where he could play for new coach Chip Kelly as a graduate transfer. Speight passed for 2,538 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2016 but was sidelined after four games last fall with three broken vertebrae. He'll be in the mix to replace three-year starter Josh Rosen, who was a first-round NFL draft choice of the Arizona Cardinals.

''So you're getting a guy that's got some maturity to him and has been there, done that. He's there for a reason,'' Kelly said about Speight.

JALEN HURD, WR, Baylor

The former Tennessee Volunteer running back's transition to receiver is as notable as his school switch. Hurd was 440 yards shy of Tennessee's career rushing record when he left midway through his junior season in 2016. He's eligible for the Bears this season, when he'll play wideout.

---

EXTRA POINT

Six more transfers that could have an impact on their new teams, with former schools in parentheses.

K.J. Carta-Samuels, QB, Colorado State (Washington)

Keller Chryst, QB, Tennessee (Stanford)

Jordan Cronkrite, RB, USF (Florida)

Jonathan Hilliman, RB, Rutgers (Boston College)

J.T. Ibe, S, South Carolina (Rice)

Tre Watson, RB, Texas (California)

 

[Cnotes53]

Ole Miss Breakdown
August 8, 2018

Ole Miss enters its second season under head coach Matt Luke looking to improve on last year?s 6-6 straight-up record and 5-7 against-the-spread mark. This will be last year of probation for the Rebels, who can?t go to the SEC Championship Game or a bowl for a third straight year.

Therefore, many view Ole Miss as a non-factor for one more campaign. However, it says here that the Rebels have enough talent to play spoilers in the race to win both SEC divisions. They return eight starters on offense and seven on defense.

Most of that talent is on offense. This unit has at least a pair of future first-round picks in offensive tackle Greg Little and wide receiver A.J. Brown. Mel Kiper Jr.?s first Big Board for the 2019 Draft had Brown listed as the No. 4 overall pick with Little at No. 6.

Brown is the leader of a WR group that?s ranked No. 1 in the nation by most preseason publications, including Phil Steele?s. The junior was a second-team All-American as a true sophomore in 2017, hauling in 75 receptions for 1,252 yards and 11 touchdowns.

There are two more elite wideouts in D.K. Metcalf and DaMarkus Lodge, who had 41 catches for 698 yards and seven TDs last year. Metcalf started all 12 games in 2017, making 39 receptions for 646 yards and seven TDs, including the game-winner in the final seconds of a 37-34 victory at Kentucky.

Former QB Shea Patterson transferred to Michigan. The former five-star recruit from Texas went down with a torn ACL in a 40-24 home loss to LSU last October. Jordan Ta?amu started the last five games and distinguished himself extremely well. The senior who came to Oxford via the juco route completed 66.5 percent of his throws for 1,682 yards with an 11/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Luke also has found the QB of the future in 5-star recruit Matt Corral, a California native that arrived on campus in January and took part in spring practice. Corral was originally a Florida commit before Jim McElwain was fired and replaced by Dan Mullen.

In Steele?s preseason mag, junior tight end Dawson Knox is listed as a third-team All-SEC pick. Knox had had 24 catches for 321 yards in ?17. Brown and Little are first-team All-SEC selections, while Metcalf is a second-teamer and OG Javon Patterson joins Knox as a third-teamer.

Ole Miss averaged 32.8 points per game under first-year offensive coordinator Phil Longo, who was hired by former HC Hugh Freeze before his dismissal last summer. Longo had previously been OC in ?16 at Sam Houston State running an ?Air Raid? attack.

Steele ranks the Rebels? offensive line as the fourth-best in the SEC and the nation?s 17th-best. However, the RBs are 13th in the conference. Juco transfer RB Scottie Phillips was in for the spring and may end up as the starter. Jordan Wilkins has departed after rushing for 1,039 yards and nine TDs with a 6.5 yards-per-carry average.

D?Vaughn Pennamon ran for 227 yards and four TDs with a 4.1 YPC average last year, while Eric Swinney ran for 209 yards and three TDs with a 4.8 YPC average. However, Pennamon is currently out indefinitely with a knee injury.

As bullish as I am on the Ole Miss offense, I?m equally down on the defense, if not more so. This unit allowed 34.6 PPP in ?17. The Rebels lost their two leading tacklers and one of the SEC?s best pass rushers in Marquis Haynes, who had 7.5 sacks and five QB hurries last season. (Of course, Haynes is the stud that blindsided Alabama QB Jalen Hurts in Oxford two years ago with as perfect a hit on a QB as you?ll ever see, resulting in a scoop-and-score TD that gave Ole Miss a 24-3 lead. Alas, the Crimson Tide rallied for a 48-43 win to avoid a third straight loss to the Rebels.)

Steele?s SEC Unit Rankings reflect the challenges that second-year DC Wesley McGriff (co-DC at Auburn in ?16) faces. The defensive line is ranked 12th in the league, the LBs are 14th and the secondary is seventh.

Three Ole Miss defenders are on Steele?s preseason All-SEC teams. Junior DT Benito Jones is a second-teamer, senior CB Ken Webster is a third-team selection and junior free safety Jaylon Jones is a fourth-teamer. Benito Jones has started 14 career games in his first two seasons, recording 68 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, two sacks, seven QB hurries and one forced fumble.

Luke hit the juco trail with hopes of adding immediate help on this side of the ball. Two defensive linemen were added in Noah Jefferson and Hal Northern. Jefferson and juco LB Vernon Dasher arrived early for spring practice and Dasher is probably going to start right away.

Sportsbook.ag currently has Ole Miss with a season win total of six (?under? -150, ?over? +120).

Before looking at this year?s schedule, let?s rewind what went down in ?17. Remember, Luke replaced Freeze on an interim basis. Ole Miss started 2-0 with lopsided home victories over South Alabama (47-27) and UT-Martin (45-23), only to lose three straight road games by double-digit margins. The Rebels stopped the bleeding with a 57-35 home win over Vanderbilt to get back to .500.

Then Patterson went down in the home loss to 24th-ranked LSU. From there, Ole Miss finished 3-2 in Ta?amu?s five starts, including a 31-28 win at Mississippi State as a 15-point underdog in the Egg Bowl. This victory convinced AD Ross Bjork to give Luke the HC gig on a permanent basis.

Both defeats down the stretch were one-possession games, as the Rebels lost home games to Arkansas (38-37) and Texas A&M (31-24). They averaged 35.8 PPG with Ta?amu under center.

Luke?s squad opens the year with a tone-setting showdown with Texas Tech in Houston. As of Aug. 8, most books had the Red Raiders installed as 1.5 or two-point favorites. The other non-conference games are at home vs. Southern Illinois, Kent State and ULM.

Ole Miss draws South Carolina and Vanderbilt as its games against the SEC East. The Rebels will be in a favorable spot for a Nov. 3 home game vs. the Gamecocks, who will come to Oxford in a potential look-ahead situation (depending on the SEC East standings at the time, obviously) with a game at Florida on deck. Most important, Ole Miss has two weeks to prepare for Will Muschamp?s squad, which hosts Tennessee the prior weekend.

The spoiler role I noted earlier in both divisions is clearly referencing South Carolina in how Ole Miss can impact the race in the East. Although we don?t give the Rebels a shot against Alabama, they could give Auburn and Mississippi State trouble, especially with both of those contests at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

In its Games of the Year section, Sportsbook.ag has Ole Miss as a 10.5-point home underdog vs. Mississippi State. Some other shops have the Rebels as 22.5-point home underdogs vs. Alabama on Sept. 15.

I?m going to pass on Ole Miss?s season win total due to my lack of faith in its defense. With that said, I do believe the Rebels will win at least six games. They might wreak havoc on South Carolina?s season in early November. If Luke?s squad can win the turnover battle in home games vs. Auburn and Mississippi State, it could pull upsets in those home outings as well.

**B.E.?s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Ole Miss is ranked 60th in Steele?s preseason Power Rankings.

-- Ole Miss finished 2017 minus five in turnover margin. The Rebels were +34 on their 12 foes in total offense.

-- Steele ranks the Rebels? schedule as the 46th-toughest nationally, which is the SEC?s eighth-toughest slate.

-- Ole Miss went 3-1 ATS as a road underdog on Luke?s watch last year and is 17-8 in 25 such spots dating back to 2008.

-- Steele?s National Unit Rankings has the Rebels at No. 27 in the secondary.

-- Not one team on Ole Miss?s schedule has an open date beforehand. The regular-season finale vs. MSU falls on Thanksgiving Day.

-- Ole Miss returns 57 lettermen and lost 28.

 

[Cnotes53]

SEC Season Outlook
August 8, 2018

It's on to my final preview of the Power Five conferences for the upcoming football season and that means it's time to talk SEC. This has been the dominant conference in collegiate football for the better part of a decade now and there is a good chance nothing really changes in that regard this year.

They've got the defending champs from Alabama who are favored to repeat, a 2017 runner-up in Georgia who can't wait to get another crack at the Crimson Tide (can only be in SEC Title game), and will be in the national scene as well, along with all the usual suspects like Florida, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Missouri all looking to dethrone them.

Yet, for as elite as this conference is in terms of it's teams at the top, depth throughout the conference has taken a hit in the last year or two. Sure, Alabama and Georgia are expected to dominate much of the year and possibly get back to a National Title game, but when nearly half of your conference (six of 14 teams) have season win totals of 6.5 or lower ? basically a .500 season or not ? the likes of 'Bama and Georgia do get a few cupcakes to beat up on in conference play as well.

And while the end result may be rather predictable in the SEC (Alabama vs Georgia in SEC Title game) the path to us getting there is probably anything but predictable. But let's take a crack at it anyways.

SEC Outlook

Most Intriguing SEC Future Bet

Ole Miss Over 6.5 wins (+150)

There are plenty of heavily juiced season win total options in the SEC, but many of them are shaded towards the way you'd expect. Alabama is heavily shaded 'over' 10.5 wins, same story with Auburn at 8.5 and LSU at 6.5 wins. But the most hevaily shaded 'under' option in this conference is on the Ole Miss Rebels, and I don't necessarily agree with it.

Ole Miss takes a bit hit this year with the transfer of QB Shea Patterson, but that means Senior Jordan Ta'amu gets the job from the beginning and he did an admiral role in filling in for Patterson a year ago after he went down with injury. Ta'amu at the helm changes little in terms of offensive possibilities for this team as they could be one of the best scoring units in the conference. The numbers may not show it by year's end given all the tough defenses they'll see in this league, but when you can score points you've always got a chance to win.

Ole Miss could end up eclipsing this number thanks to some solid opportunities in the schedule. They get to host Alabama (not that they'd win that anyways), but home games against Auburn, South Carolina, and Mississippi State will likely be the ones that decide the fate of this wager. If the Rebels can squeak out a 2-1 SU mark in those contests, chances are this 'over' 6.5 wins will be a winner. That's still an awfully big 'IF' though.

Best Future Bet

Tennessee Over 5.5 wins (-130)

The Volunteers are another one of those SEC teams with win totals for 2018 hovering around the .500 mark and it's a mark I believe this team will get to this year. Settling on a QB would be the first step to achieving that goal and while it looks like the Stanford-transfer Keller Chryst will at least be the guy out of the gate ? and not a bad option at all ? I doubt HC Jeremy Pruitt has anything locked in stone at that position for the year.

Turnover in terms of the starters will be large this year for Tennessee but that may be a good thing as well. This program has sunk under the weight of lofty expectations the last few years and became a laughing stock of a program for awhile there. Pruitt and his staff are trying to rebuild this thing and a great way to get guys to believe your ?culture change methods? is to come out of the gate and produce.

Tennessee will be in tough against West Virginia for opening week, and outside of a tough three-week stretch at Georgia, at Auburn, vs Alabama) at the end of September, there are quite a few winnable games for the Volunteers. Obviously many will be quick to point out that the Vols still have to deal with Florida and that massive losing streak against the Gators, but that Florida matchup is quite winnable this year, as are the final five games of the year against South Carolina, Charlotte, Kentucky, Missouri, and Vanderbilt. That could be the six wins right there, never mind the two they should get early on against East Tennessee State and UTEP.

If this number was sitting at 6.5 it would probably be a hard pass for me, but at 5.5 and Pruitt coming over looking to instill a winning culture at Tennessee again as a former Alabama assistant is something I can believe in. It's not like we haven't seen a similar scenario play out recently right with Kirby Smart taking Georgia back to prominence as a former 'Bama assistant. Pruitt is the next guy to follow that path and it starts with a Bowl game this year.

Best Season Win Total 'Under' Bet

South Carolina Under 7.5 (-130)

If the likes of Tennessee and Ole Miss are going to rise up in the chase group of the SEC, someone's got to fall back and I'm banking it being the Gamecocks in 2018.

This is a program that finished 9-4 SU last year in a year that they probably overperformed thanks to going 6-1 SU in one-possession games (decided by 8 or less) and that's a trend that probably regresses quite a bit this year. Simply put they were probably the luckiest team in the SEC in terms of their results a year ago, and when you consider that won five of their nine games when they were point spread underdogs, including three being those one-possession contests, I don't think South Carolina gets the ball to bounce their way that much this year.

Looking at their schedule, I'm not sure where a win may come for them the final five weeks of the year outside of their non-SEC game against FCS school Chattanooga. The Gamecocks have to deal with Tennessee, Ole Miss (two programs I've already discussed), and then have Florida and Clemson to end the year too. Only the Tennessee game of those four is a home contest for South Carolina, so really where are these eight wins going to come? They've only got seven games prior to that stretch and one is against Georgia (definitely a loss).

Who plays in the SEC Championship Game?

Alabama vs Georgia

No-brainer here and really no reason to try and overthink a play like this. Last year's top two teams will be on a collision course all year long for the SEC crown barring some unforeseen circumstances (significant injuries etc) and even if neither of them lives up to the lofty national expectations both may have this year, the conference will still be theirs to play for at year's end.

 

[Cnotes53]

Handicapping Oklahoma (10)
August 8, 2018

The Oklahoma Sooners will have a new quarterback this season, as gone is Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield. Taking over will be Kyler Murray who has a big arm and who is an explosive runner. A lot is expected from Oklahoma this season, as the Sooners are considered national title contenders. Oddsmakers set the win total for Oklahoma at 10 games for this season.

Let?s look at Oklahoma?s schedule to see if they will go over or under that number.

2018 Oklahoma Sooners Regular Season Win Total
10 (over -125)
10 (under -105)

2018 Oklahoma Sooners Schedule Analysis

Week 1 ? Sept. 1 vs. Florida Atlantic

The Sooners get an interesting test in their opening game against a Florida Atlantic team that has Lane Kiffin as their head coach. The Owls will definitely be able to score, but they don?t have the defense to stop the Sooners.

Week 2 ? Sept. 8 vs. UCLA

The Sooners have to face another high-powered offense in Week 2, as Chip Kelly?s Bruins come to Norman. The best time to face the Bruins might be early before Kelly gets his system in place.

Week 3 ? Sept. 15 at Iowa State

The only game that the Sooners lost last year in the regular season was to the Cyclones so this will be a revenge game. This one is on the road, but the Sooners should roll.

Week 4 ? Sept. 22 vs. Army

This is an interesting home and home series that begins in 2018, but it should be very one-sided, as the Sooners are simply too strong for the Black Knights. The Sooners will travel to West Point in 2020.

Week 5 ? Sept. 29 vs. Baylor

The Bears gave the Sooners a big scare last season before losing 49-41. The Sooners get to play this one in Norman and they should have enough to hold off the Bears.

Week 6 ? Oct. 6 vs. Texas (Cotton Bowl - Dallas)

The Sooners held off the Longhorns last season but it wasn?t easy, as Texas rallied from a big deficit. The Longhorns are expected to be improved this season, but whether they are close enough to Oklahoma?s level if the question.

Week 8 ? Oct. 20 at TCU

If you are looking at key games for Oklahoma this season this is definitely one of them. The Sooners have won the last four meetings against TCU, but this game is on the road and it could be Oklahoma?s first loss of the season.

Week 9 ? Oct. 27 vs. Kansas State

The Wildcats nearly beat Oklahoma last season, but this game is in Norman. That should mean a win for the Sooners, but keep in mind that KSU has won two of the last three at Oklahoma.

Week 10 ? Nov. 3 at Texas Tech

The Sooners are better on both sides of the ball than Texas Tech and it is hard to see a Kliff Kingsbury team winning a big game.

Week 11 ? Nov. 10 vs. Oklahoma State

The Cowboys scored a lot of points last season against the Sooners in Stillwater and still lost. This time the game is in Norman and Oklahoma should play better defense and get the win.

Week 12 ? Nov. 17 vs. Kansas

This will be a rout, as Kansas is considered one of the worst teams in the country. It is only a matter of the final margin of victory for the Sooners.

Week 13 ? Nov. 23 at West Virginia

This game could actually be a huge one in the Big 12 if West Virginia lives up to their expectations. The Mountaineers have the best quarterback in the conference in Will Grier and they are capable of challenging the Sooners.

2018 Oklahoma Sooners Regular Season Win Total Prediction

The schedule for the Sooners in 2018 is really pretty favorable. The season probably comes down to the two road games at TCU and West Virginia. If the Sooners win all of their other games as expected that would get them to 10 wins. They would need to just win one of those other two contests to get to 11 wins and go over their win total. That seems the most likely scenario, so we?ll go over the win total for Oklahoma this season.

 

[Cnotes53]

Iowa suspends Jackson, Lattimore for opener
August 8, 2018

IOWA CITY, Iowa (AP) Iowa tackle Alaric Jackson and defensive lineman Cedrick Lattimore will be suspended for the season opener against Northern Illinois for violating team rules.

The Hawkeyes say the suspensions aren't for legal matters. But coach Kirk Ferentz says Jackson and Lattimore's issues surfaced in the late spring and both players were given guidelines to meet.

Ferentz called their response ''excellent.'' However, it apparently wasn't strong enough to avoid missing the opener.

The loss of Jackson means that Iowa will face the Huskies on Sept. 1 without either of their starting tackles. Tristan Wirfs, like Jackson a sophomore pressed into duty a year ago, is suspended for one game after being charged with drunk driving on July 29.

 

[Cnotes53]

Ole Miss Breakdown
August 8, 2018
By Brian Edwards

Ole Miss enters its second season under head coach Matt Luke looking to improve on last year?s 6-6 straight-up record and 5-7 against-the-spread mark. This will be last year of probation for the Rebels, who can?t go to the SEC Championship Game or a bowl for a third straight year.

Therefore, many view Ole Miss as a non-factor for one more campaign. However, it says here that the Rebels have enough talent to play spoilers in the race to win both SEC divisions. They return eight starters on offense and seven on defense.

Most of that talent is on offense. This unit has at least a pair of future first-round picks in offensive tackle Greg Little and wide receiver A.J. Brown. Mel Kiper Jr.?s first Big Board for the 2019 Draft had Brown listed as the No. 4 overall pick with Little at No. 6.

Brown is the leader of a WR group that?s ranked No. 1 in the nation by most preseason publications, including Phil Steele?s. The junior was a second-team All-American as a true sophomore in 2017, hauling in 75 receptions for 1,252 yards and 11 touchdowns.

There are two more elite wideouts in D.K. Metcalf and DaMarkus Lodge, who had 41 catches for 698 yards and seven TDs last year. Metcalf started all 12 games in 2017, making 39 receptions for 646 yards and seven TDs, including the game-winner in the final seconds of a 37-34 victory at Kentucky.

Former QB Shea Patterson transferred to Michigan. The former five-star recruit from Texas went down with a torn ACL in a 40-24 home loss to LSU last October. Jordan Ta?amu started the last five games and distinguished himself extremely well. The senior who came to Oxford via the juco route completed 66.5 percent of his throws for 1,682 yards with an 11/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Luke also has found the QB of the future in 5-star recruit Matt Corral, a California native that arrived on campus in January and took part in spring practice. Corral was originally a Florida commit before Jim McElwain was fired and replaced by Dan Mullen.

In Steele?s preseason mag, junior tight end Dawson Knox is listed as a third-team All-SEC pick. Knox had had 24 catches for 321 yards in ?17. Brown and Little are first-team All-SEC selections, while Metcalf is a second-teamer and OG Javon Patterson joins Knox as a third-teamer.

Ole Miss averaged 32.8 points per game under first-year offensive coordinator Phil Longo, who was hired by former HC Hugh Freeze before his dismissal last summer. Longo had previously been OC in ?16 at Sam Houston State running an ?Air Raid? attack.

Steele ranks the Rebels? offensive line as the fourth-best in the SEC and the nation?s 17th-best. However, the RBs are 13th in the conference. Juco transfer RB Scottie Phillips was in for the spring and may end up as the starter. Jordan Wilkins has departed after rushing for 1,039 yards and nine TDs with a 6.5 yards-per-carry average.

D?Vaughn Pennamon ran for 227 yards and four TDs with a 4.1 YPC average last year, while Eric Swinney ran for 209 yards and three TDs with a 4.8 YPC average. However, Pennamon is currently out indefinitely with a knee injury.

As bullish as I am on the Ole Miss offense, I?m equally down on the defense, if not more so. This unit allowed 34.6 PPP in ?17. The Rebels lost their two leading tacklers and one of the SEC?s best pass rushers in Marquis Haynes, who had 7.5 sacks and five QB hurries last season. (Of course, Haynes is the stud that blindsided Alabama QB Jalen Hurts in Oxford two years ago with as perfect a hit on a QB as you?ll ever see, resulting in a scoop-and-score TD that gave Ole Miss a 24-3 lead. Alas, the Crimson Tide rallied for a 48-43 win to avoid a third straight loss to the Rebels.)

Steele?s SEC Unit Rankings reflect the challenges that second-year DC Wesley McGriff (co-DC at Auburn in ?16) faces. The defensive line is ranked 12th in the league, the LBs are 14th and the secondary is seventh.

Three Ole Miss defenders are on Steele?s preseason All-SEC teams. Junior DT Benito Jones is a second-teamer, senior CB Ken Webster is a third-team selection and junior free safety Jaylon Jones is a fourth-teamer. Benito Jones has started 14 career games in his first two seasons, recording 68 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, two sacks, seven QB hurries and one forced fumble.

Luke hit the juco trail with hopes of adding immediate help on this side of the ball. Two defensive linemen were added in Noah Jefferson and Hal Northern. Jefferson and juco LB Vernon Dasher arrived early for spring practice and Dasher is probably going to start right away.

Sportsbook.ag currently has Ole Miss with a season win total of six (?under? -150, ?over? +120).

Before looking at this year?s schedule, let?s rewind what went down in ?17. Remember, Luke replaced Freeze on an interim basis. Ole Miss started 2-0 with lopsided home victories over South Alabama (47-27) and UT-Martin (45-23), only to lose three straight road games by double-digit margins. The Rebels stopped the bleeding with a 57-35 home win over Vanderbilt to get back to .500.

Then Patterson went down in the home loss to 24th-ranked LSU. From there, Ole Miss finished 3-2 in Ta?amu?s five starts, including a 31-28 win at Mississippi State as a 15-point underdog in the Egg Bowl. This victory convinced AD Ross Bjork to give Luke the HC gig on a permanent basis.

Both defeats down the stretch were one-possession games, as the Rebels lost home games to Arkansas (38-37) and Texas A&M (31-24). They averaged 35.8 PPG with Ta?amu under center.

Luke?s squad opens the year with a tone-setting showdown with Texas Tech in Houston. As of Aug. 8, most books had the Red Raiders installed as 1.5 or two-point favorites. The other non-conference games are at home vs. Southern Illinois, Kent State and ULM.

Ole Miss draws South Carolina and Vanderbilt as its games against the SEC East. The Rebels will be in a favorable spot for a Nov. 3 home game vs. the Gamecocks, who will come to Oxford in a potential look-ahead situation (depending on the SEC East standings at the time, obviously) with a game at Florida on deck. Most important, Ole Miss has two weeks to prepare for Will Muschamp?s squad, which hosts Tennessee the prior weekend.

The spoiler role I noted earlier in both divisions is clearly referencing South Carolina in how Ole Miss can impact the race in the East. Although we don?t give the Rebels a shot against Alabama, they could give Auburn and Mississippi State trouble, especially with both of those contests at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

In its Games of the Year section, Sportsbook.ag has Ole Miss as a 10.5-point home underdog vs. Mississippi State. Some other shops have the Rebels as 22.5-point home underdogs vs. Alabama on Sept. 15.

I?m going to pass on Ole Miss?s season win total due to my lack of faith in its defense. With that said, I do believe the Rebels will win at least six games. They might wreak havoc on South Carolina?s season in early November. If Luke?s squad can win the turnover battle in home games vs. Auburn and Mississippi State, it could pull upsets in those home outings as well.

**B.E.?s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Ole Miss is ranked 60th in Steele?s preseason Power Rankings.

-- Ole Miss finished 2017 minus five in turnover margin. The Rebels were +34 on their 12 foes in total offense.

-- Steele ranks the Rebels? schedule as the 46th-toughest nationally, which is the SEC?s eighth-toughest slate.

-- Ole Miss went 3-1 ATS as a road underdog on Luke?s watch last year and is 17-8 in 25 such spots dating back to 2008.

-- Steele?s National Unit Rankings has the Rebels at No. 27 in the secondary.

-- Not one team on Ole Miss?s schedule has an open date beforehand. The regular-season finale vs. MSU falls on Thanksgiving Day.

-- Ole Miss returns 57 lettermen and lost 28.

 

[Cnotes53]

Kentucky Breakdown
August 10, 2018
By Brian Edwards

Going into the crucial sixth season of his tenure, Mark Stoops appears to have his best overall team at Kentucky. The Wildcats, who are off a 7-6 straight-up record and a 4-9 against-the-spread ledger in 2017, return seven starters on offense and eight on defense.

UK won its first three games last season and was 5-1 going into a road assignment in Starkville. Truth be told, Stoops?s bunch should?ve been 6-0 at that point if not for gift-wrapping Florida a pair of TD passes when UK didn?t even line up a defender on a wide receiver split out wide.

The first such play came on a fourth-and-short situation from midfield late in the first half. The second came on a third-and-goal play coming out of a timeout in the final minute of a 28-27 loss, UK?s 31st in a row against the Gators. This is the longest active losing streak in an FBS rivalry.

After getting dusted 45-7 at Mississippi State, UK responded to win a 29-26 decision over Tennessee to clinch a postseason berth. However, the ?Cats gave up a TD pass in the final five seconds of a 37-34 home loss to Ole Miss. They?d bounce back to throttle Vanderbilt by a 44-21 count as 2.5-point road underdogs to improve to 7-3.

But Kentucky lost its last two regular-season games in blowout fashion at Georgia (42-13) and vs. Louisville (44-17). Then at the Music City Bowl, UK lost 24-23 to Northwestern after failing on a two-point conversion in the final minute. In other words, three gut-wrenching defeats by five combined points prevented the ?Cats from winning 10 games.

Kentucky?s roster has a slew of future NFL players, including junior RB Benny Snell, TE C.J. Conrad, OT Landon Young, OG Logan Stenberg, LB Josh Allen, LB Jordan Jones and safety Mike Edwards. Senior CBs Derrick Baity and Chris Westry are a solid duo that could play on Sundays in the future as well.

The problem for this UK team ? and for gamblers looking to form a preseason opinion or wager on its win total ? is that there?s zero experience at the QB position. The battle to take the first snap in the opener vs. Central Michigan is two-man race between Terry Wilson and Gunnar Hoak. Neither player has taken a collegiate snap.

Wilson signed with Oregon in the 2016 class before transferring after one year. He had a 26/11 touchdown-to-interception ratio at Garden City Community College in Kansas last season. 247Sports ranked Wilson as the No. 2 dual-threat QB and the No. 34 overall player in the 2018 juco class. He chose UK over offers from Baylor, Ole Miss and Indiana.

Hoak, a third-year sophomore who enrolled early before the ?16 campaign, arrived at the same time as offensive coordinator Eddie Gran and QBs coach Darin Hinshaw. Therefore, the 3-star recruit out of Dublin (OH) High School has the advantage of being in the same system for three years now.

Whoever is under center, he?ll be able to lean on one of the nation?s premier RBs in Snell, who ran for 1,333 yards and 19 touchdowns while averaging 5.1 yards per carry in ?17. Those numbers would?ve been better if not for his ejection from the Music City Bowl in the first quarter. This was one of the most utterly despicable rulings by a referee that I?ve seen in college football history. Snell garnered second-team All-SEC honors last year and is a first-team All-SEC pick in Phil Steele?s preseason magazine.

Snell will work behind an offensive line that has 60 career starts between them. This group also adds E.J. Price, a former four-star recruit to USC in ?16 who transferred to Lexington and sat out last year.

Stoops and his staff are optimistic that senior WR Dorian Baker can stay healthy. He went down with a season-ending injury in August of last year. Baker had 55 receptions for 608 yards and three TDs as a sophomore in 2015. He has 88 career catches for 1,015 yards and six TDs.

Conrad, a preseason second-team All-SEC TE in Steele?s preseason mag, has 50 career grabs for 697 yards and nine TDs. Junior Tavin Richardson and sophomore Lynn Bowden are the likely starters at WR alongside Baker. Richardson had 27 receptions for 371 yards and one TD in ?17, while Bowden had 17 catches for 210 yards.

Kentucky?s defense gave up 381, 346 and 333 rushing yards in its three defeats to close last year. This stop unit allowed an average of 28.2 points per game even though it produced the most sacks (30) since Stoops arrived.

Edwards was a first-team All-SEC choice in ?17, recording a team-best 97 tackles to go with four interceptions, three tackles for loss, one sack, one QB hurry and seven passes broken up. Steele has him as a preseason second-team All-American, while Allen is a fourth-team All-American.

Allen earned third-team All-SEC honors last year when he recorded 65 tackles, seven sacks, 3.5 TFL?s, four QB hurries, three PBU, two forced fumbles and one interception. Jones was a second-team All-SEC selection in 2016, but he missed four games and wasn?t 100 percent healthy for a few others in ?17.

During that ?16 campaign, I realized that I loved Jones as a player. His team was taking its 30th consecutive defeat to UF at The Swamp. If you?ve never been to Gainesville in mid-September, I can assure you that a sunny day makes it feel like the temperature is at least 100 degrees and even hotter sometimes. Kentucky was down 45-0 early in the fourth quarter, but the same LB kept darting into the backfield to make tackles. That UK team clearly quit on that day, but Jones didn?t take a play off. Look for this hard-nosed gamer to bounce back from an injury-riddled year in ?18.

Steele?s SEC Unit Rankings have the ?Cats at No. 14 at the QB position, No. 6 at RB, No. 13 at WR, No. 11 on the o-line, No. 13 on the d-line, No. 8 at LB, No. 8 in the secondary, No. 12 on special teams and No. 6 in chemistry.

Sportsbook.ag has UK?s win total at 5.5 (?under? -120, ?over? -110). The Wildcats, who have never made the SEC Championship Game, have 300/1 odds to win in Atlanta this year. Those same longshot odds are shared with Arkansas, and only Vanderbilt (500/1) has longer odds. 5Dimes.eu has UK with 45/1 odds to win the SEC East.

Kentucky?s non-conference schedule has three home games vs. Central Michigan, Murray St. and Middle Tennessee. The lone road assignment is the regular-season finale at U of L, where UK won 41-38 as a 27-point underdog in ?16.

UK?s draw from the SEC West is a home game vs. Mississippi State and a trip to College Station to face Texas A&M on Oct. 6. The Wildcats get their open date on Oct. 13 ahead of a home game vs. Vandy. They get four of their first five games at home.

Stoops joins LSU?s Ed Orgeron and Vandy?s Derek Mason as the SEC coaches most likely to be on the hot seat if things don?t go their way in ?18. He is 26-36 overall, 12-28 in league play and 0-2 in bowl games over five seasons at UK. A third straight postseason invite is a must and depending on how it goes down (blowout losses and/or unimpressive wins?), a 6-6 regular-season record might have Big Blue Nation calling for change.

I think Stoops needs to go 7-5 to feel comfortable about being retained. To get to seven wins, UK must sweep its three non-conference home games, beat Vanderbilt at Commonwealth Stadium and win in Knoxville. Where are the two other victories going to come from? Well, the ?Cats will be home underdogs at least three times ? vs. Mississippi State, vs. South Carolina and vs. Georgia.

As you?ll see below, Stoops hasn?t exactly thrived in home ?dog spots. The four other road games are at Florida, at Texas A&M, at Missouri and at U of L.

Unless Wilson wins the job and has a breakout year, I have a hard time seeing UK winning more than six games. The win total of 5.5 is a good number and it?s a PASS for me.

**B.E.?s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Stoops is an atrocious 3-11-2 ATS in 16 games as a home underdog at UK.

-- 5Dimes has Snell with 300/1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy. The same offshore shop has him with 27/1 odds to get invited to the Heisman Trophy presentation.

-- Steele?s position rankings of players eligible for the 2019 NFL Draft has Snell listed as the No. 3 RB. Conrad is the No. 7 TE, Young is the No. 20 OT, Stenberg is the No. 16 OG, Allen is the No. 3 OLB, Jones is the No. 23 OLB and Edwards is the No. 11 strong safety.

-- Kentucky is ranked No. 75 in Steele?s Preseason Power Rankings.

-- UK hasn?t won at Neyland Stadium since 1984. The ?Cats will have a great chance to do so on Nov. 10.

-- According to Steele?s rankings, Kentucky has the SEC?s sixth-toughest schedule and the country?s 39th-toughest slate.

-- UK took a hit when DE Denzil Ware decided to transfer to Jacksonville St. late this past spring. Ware had 47 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 2.5 TFL?s, two QB hurries, one interception and one PBU in '17.

-- In its Games of the Year section, Sportsbook has Kentucky as a 9.5-point road underdog at Louisville.

 

[Cnotes53]

2018 SEC Preview
August 12, 2018
By Marc Lawrence

SEC2018 SEC PREVIEW

Gimme 5

The SEC features 5 first-year new head coaches for the 2018 season. In fact that number actually reaches 6 if you include Ole Miss mentor Matt Luke, who is back after taking the reins on an interim basis last season following the Hugh Freeze fiasco. Jimbo Fisher (Texas A&M) leads the run with a $75 million dollar contract. In addition, Joe Moorhead (Mississippi State), Chad Morris (Arkansas), Dan Mullen (Florida) and Jeremy Pruitt (Tennessee) complete the cast.

Fast Facts

Alabama has scored more touchdowns than any team in the SEC only once under Nick Saban?s tenure ... The Crimson Tide is the only FBS school to make it to all four College Football playoffs ... Despite an average drop of 1,409 fans in 2017, the SEC has led the FBS in average attendance every year since 1998. It was the largest drop since 1983 ... Only one time since 2007 has Alabama or Auburn failed to win the SEC West division (LSU in 2011).

12th Man Tradition

In case you didn?t know, the 12th Man Tradition at Texas A&M started in 1922 when a person in the stands (a basketball player who had played some football) was called down to the bench and asked to suit up on the sideline because of the toll injuries had taken on the tea, From that time on, A&M students stand to show loyalty and a readiness to help the team if needed. And know you know the rest of the story.

Note: The numbers following each team name represents the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, along with the number of returning linemen, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback.

ALABAMA (Offense - *7/4, Defense - 3/2, 52 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ALABAMA SHAKES

Oh oh. This could get downright ugly. Tide QB Jalen Hurts won the SEC Offensive Player of the Year award as a freshman in 2016, and then threw for 2,081 yards, 17 touchdowns and one interception before he was benched in favor of freshman QB Tua Tagovailoa in the second half of the national championship game against Georgia. Tagovailoa led the Tide to a come-from-behind win and the rest is history. Suddenly, Nick Saban has a two-headed QB situation ? and that?s generally not a good thing. And then there?s the fact that the Tide was the 3rd hardest-hit team in the offseason with 5 NFL defections, 14 returning starters and 16 players from the 2-deep gone, with the wide receiving corps hurt the most. Then again, Bama?s 24.4 scoring differential last season was second-best in the nation to Penn State (24.6).

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Nick Saban is an incredible 125-14 at Alabama since 2008, including 70-10 in SEC games.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite at LSU (11/3)

ARKANSAS (Offense - 9/4, Defense - 8/2, 59 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NEW-LOOK PIGS

After losing more games than they won (29-34) behind Bret Bielema, Arkansas decided a new look was needed. One of only two Power 5 schools (out of 13 openings) to hire a Group of 5 head coach in the offseason, the Hogs welcome new head coach Chad Morris, former boss at SMU and top assistant with Clemson. He brings a new playbook with his modified spread offense, along with John Chavis, former LSU defensive coordinator, who will implement the third different defensive scheme for the Hogs in as many years. The offense returns 4 starting linemen who allowed 35 sacks last season. They will be expected to improve while adapting to Morris? new offense. The jury is still out.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Hogs have played UNDER their season win total in four of the last five seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Mississippi (10/13) - *KEY if favored

AUBURN (Offense - *6/1, Defense - 7/3, 58 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: AIRING IT OUT, PART 2

When QB Jarrett Stidham transferred in as a former 5-star recruit from Texas A&M, the Tigers would have been ecstatic knowing he would throw for 3,158 yards and 18 TDs, while defeating Alabama and winning the SEC West division title. Safe to say they were euphoric after checking both boxes last year. So what do they do for an encore? For openers, ?Air? Stidham is back but he?ll be operating without RBs Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway. In addition, four senior starting OL have departed. Thus, replicating last year?s success will be difficult. But before bailing out entirely on the new-look Tigers, keep this in mind: Over the last two regular season campaigns, the SU stats winner is 25-1 in Tigers? games. Keep in mind, though, that the Tigers have suffered at least four losses each of the last four years.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 33-1 SU at home in non-conference games since 2007.

PASS

FLORIDA (Offense - *10/5, Defense - 9/3, 53 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MISSION BBQ

New head coach Dan Mullen has handed the keys to the UF offense over to quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson, who is commissioned with igniting an offense that has been MIA since Tim Tebow?s days. The Gators? offense has not been ranked inside the Top 10 in the SEC since 2009 when Tebow was behind center. Florida finished 13th out of 14 SEC teams last season, using three different QBs. Johnson insists redshirt sophomore QB Feleipe Franks? offseason maturation has gone from the ?class to the grass? and is ready for a breakout campaign. He?s being pressed by QB Kyle Trask. After last season?s red-faced 4-win effort, the Gators are a certified ?mission team? in 2018. And in payback mode against no less than five foes, expect Mullen to turn up the flames.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Florida?s 10 assistant coaches will earn $4.74 million this season, and $5.4 million in 2019.

PLAY ON: at Florida State (11/24)

GEORGIA (Offense - *8/4, Defense - 5/2, 53 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: SMART-SIZED

After winning the SEC championship and then suffering a heartbreaking loss in the College Football Playoff title game, the Bulldogs are a team on everyone?s radar this season. Before the schedule starts, however, Kirby Smart will be tasked with replacing 17 scholarship seniors, including seven senior starters on defense and two juniors that left early for the NFL draft (read: Roquan Smith, the SEC Defensive Player of the Year). In fact, only three other FBS teams suffered a deeper degree of player losses than the Dawgs, with a total of 14 returning starters and 16 players from the 2-deep gone. The good news is QB Jake Fromm?s 24 TDs and 160.1 ranking was tops among FBS freshmen last year.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: A total of 50 freshmen have played for the Bulldogs over the past three seasons.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Florida (10/27)

KENTUCKY (Offense - 8/4, Defense - 10/3, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: TOP CATS

The Mark Stoops effect is taking hold. In 2016 and ?17, UK posted consecutive 7-win seasons, along with 4-4 records in the SEC. It?s the first time the Wildcats have won seven games and finished at least .500 in the league in consecutive seasons in 40 years. Inside those numbers is an 8-4 record in games decided by 7 points or less. The key to the success has been a recruiting effort that has landed Kentucky in the Top 50 each year under Stoops. And with it all, the Wildcats are now playing in a $120 million renovated field in front of throngs of rabid fans. It?s like they say around these parts these days ? on game day, Kroger Field often becomes the third-largest city in Kentucky. With the Wildcats starting a first-year quarterback in 2018, look for RB Benny Snell ? who owns consecutive 1,000-yard rushing seasons, to challenge for the league?s rushing title.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Kentucky is 0-8 ATS in games following an ATS win of 20 or more points under Stoops.

PLAY AGAINST: at Tennessee (11/10)

LSU (Offense - 5/3, Defense - 5/1, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ORGER GONE

Now we?re going to find out what Ed Orgeron is all about as a head coach. According to Fansided.com, from the Big Hit List of player defections, LSU?s number one cheerleader ranks #1 overall, losing 14 returning starters and 18 players from the 2-deep gone, including 6 NFL defections. In fact, only Colorado State (15) must replace more total starters than the Tigers, and only Navy (21) and UTSA (20) lost more seniors from their two-deep depth charts. After ranking 105th last year and dead last in 2016 in 4th down conversion percentage, and operating behind his third new OC is as many years, we?re guessing the Big O finds himself back in the hot seat next season. He?ll need a big year from new QB Joe Burrow, an Ohio State transfer.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Ed Orgeron is 5-20 SU as a head coach against winning SEC foes in his career.

PASS

MISSISSIPPI (Offense - 8/4, Defense - 7/2, 56 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: BORN A REBEL

Matt Luke has ties to the Ole Miss program spanning three generations. A 4-year starting center with the Rebels, Luke was thrown into the fray at the start of the season last year following the Hugh Freeze scandal. And had the Rebs not been on probation, they would have earned a bowl bid, thanks to wins in 3 of their final four games of the season. The problem this year, though, is Ole Miss must replace the most players from last year?s 2-deep roster than any team in the nation, including star QB Shea Patterson, who transferred out to Michigan. Fortunately, Luke recruited a Top 25 class in February, and over 38% of all starts last were by underclassmen.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Ole Miss is 25-2 SU and 21-6 ATS as a favorite in lined games against non-conference foes.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Mississippi State (11/22) - *KEY as a favorite

MISSISSIPPI STATE (Offense - *9/4, Defense -8/4, 49 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: WE WANT MO

The Dan Mullen era at MSU ends, and the start of the Joe Moorhead era begins. A former head coach at Fordham where he inherited a 1-10 program ? and proceeded to go 38-13 during his tenure the next four years ? Joe Mo was the OC at Penn State the past two seasons and is one of the best offensive minds in the country. Before Moorhead, PSU averaged 342 yards and 22 points per game the previous two seasons. The Lions improved to 446.5 yards and 39.5 points per game when he left. Returning star dual-threat QB Nick Fitzgerald has tossed for 4,205 yards and 36 TDs the last two seasons. WRs A.J. Brown and DK Metcalf are the league?s top receiving tandem and should surpass 20 TDs this season (Brown is the SEC?s top returning wideout). Despite a schedule filled with landmines, watch those numbers blow up this season.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Bulldog defense improved 11 points and 153 YPG last season.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Louisiana Tech (11/3)

MISSOURI (Offense - *9/5, Defense - 7/1, 51 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: TIGER BY THE TAIL

In two short seasons under head coach Barry Odom the Tigers have flexed their muscle, averaging over 30 points and 500-plus yards both years. This from a squad he inherited that owned a powder-puff offense that averaged 14 points and 281 yards. After a miserable 1-5 start to the season last year, the Tigers closed with six straight wins while scoring an average 51.3 points per games, vaulting them to their first bowl game in four years. It should be noted, though, that Mizzou went 7-0 against teams with losing records or opponents from the FCS and 0-6 against bowl teams. New OC Derek Dooley welcomes back senior QB Drew Lock, who led the FBS with 44 TD passes last season and is projected as possibly the first quarterback to be selected in this year?s NFL draft. If the defense improves at the same pace this year as last, this team could challenge for the top spot in the SEC East ? provided, of course, that they can take down bowl-caliber opposition.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Tigers are 33-8 SU and 26-11 ATS the last five years in games they manage to outgain their opponent.

PLAY ON: vs. Kentucky (10/27)

SOUTH CAROLINA (Offense - *8/3, Defense - 6/4, 55 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ALL GAS, NO BRAKES

On the heels of a 9-win season in Will Muschamp?s second year at the helm, the mantra in 2018 is ?All Gas, No Brakes?. Buoyed by a relatively small graduation class, the Gamecocks welcome a 109-man roster ? 18 more than last season. The offense is cocked-and-loaded, returning 100% of its passing yards, 98% of its rushing yards, and 80% of its receiving yards. Plus, electric senior WR Deebo Samuels returns after scoring 6 TDs in just 3 games before suffering a season-ending injury. The defense allowed just 20.7 PPG last year, its best effort since 2012. It?s worth noting that 11 players started every game last season. Five of them are back in 2018. Yes, the ?Cocks are fueled up and ready to roll.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: Seventy-percent of USC?s roster was composed of underclassmen last season.

PLAY ON: at Kentucky (9/29)

TENNESSEE (Offense - *6/2, Defense - 7/3, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: ROCKY FLOP

Behind the nation?s No. 118 red zone defense, and the first 8-loss and winless SEC season in school history, Butch Jones? fate was all but sealed. Enter new head coach Jeremy Pruitt, former defensive coordinator at Alabama, Georgia and Florida State, who has coached 41 NFL draft picks. Best of all 4 seniors with lots of playing experience anchor the defensive line. And after last year?s goose egg at home in SEC play, we?re certain Pruitt is reminded of Rocky Top?s 463-128-17 all-time mark at Neyland Stadium. Oh yeah: since 1913 the Vols have endured 10 seasons in which they failed to win 5 games. They went 63-24-10 in follow up seasons, with nary a losing year. Expect Pruitt?s debut to be a smashing success.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Vols are 7-0 SU on neutral fields since 2012. They have not played a game in North Carolina in 57 years, since 1961.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Florida (9/22)

TEXAS A&M (Offense - *8/4, Defense - 8/2, 52 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: NEW MATH

Hmm. After a 7-6 season, former A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin was dropkicked in favor of Jimbo Fisher, who enters off an identical 7-6 campaign at Florida State. Nonetheless, Fisher assumes the reins in College Station after a celebrated 8-year tenure with the Seminoles in which he won a BSC Championship, 3 ACC conference championships and 4 AP Poll Top 10 finishes. Through it all he brings an 83-23-career ledger ? as opposed to Sumlin?s 87-43-career log. In addition, new OC Darrell Dickey comes over from Memphis (No. 4 offense last season). Meanwhile, it?s worth noting that Aggie freshmen made 20.6% of all starts last season for A&M. Only four teams started more. No matter how you add it up, this looks to be a lateral move.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Aggies are 1-10-1 ATS as home in games following an ATS loss.

PASS

VANDERBILT (Offense - *7/5, Defense - 4/1, 47 Lettermen)

TEAM THEME: MASON JARRED

Knowing that Vanderbilt owns 23 losing seasons the last 26 years, it?s safe to say that head coach Derek Mason is officially on the hot seat at Vanderbilt. Averaging just 4.5 wins in four seasons on the sidelines, without a winning record in any campaign, Mason went on the offensive in the offseason when he hired four new coaches. Also looking to save Mason?s hide is senior QB Kyle Shurmer, who broke Vandy?s single-season record with 26 TD passes, and needs 3,163 passing yards and 20 touchdown passes to move ahead of Jay Cutler as the school?s all-time passing leader in each category. The departure of all-time leading rusher Ralph Webb is not good news ? not when you?re facing 9 bowl teams.

STAT YOU WILL LIKE: The Commodores are 0-17 SU and 2-15 ATS in Game Six of the season the last 17 years.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. South Carolina (9/22)

 

[Cnotes53]

Handicapping Oklahoma State (8)
August 13, 2018

The Oklahoma State Cowboys have to replace some key players on both sides of the ball for the 2018 season, but head coach Mike Gundy has turned Oklahoma State into a perennial contender and the Cowboys could be a threat in the Big 12 again this season. The schedule for the Cowboys is favorable, so Oklahoma State is not without a chance to make some noise in the conference this season. Let?s look at their win total and make a prediction.

2018 Oklahoma State Cowboys Regular Season Win Total
8 (over -111)
8 (under -109)

2018 Oklahoma State Cowboys Schedule Analysis

Week 1 ? Sept. 1 vs. Missouri State

The opener should be a cakewalk for the Cowboys, as the Bears are an FCS team. This should be a big one for Oklahoma State to start the season.

Week 2 ? Sept. 8 vs. South Alabama

The competition doesn?t get much tougher in Week 2, as the Cowboys routed the Jaguars last season by a score of 44-7. It may not be much different this time around.

Week 3 ? Sept. 15 vs. Boise State

The first test of the season for Oklahoma State comes in Week 3. The Broncos finished 11-3 last season and they are very capable of going into Stillwater and getting this win.

Week 4 ? Sept. 22 vs. Texas Tech

The Cowboys have dominated this series recently, winning each of the last nine meetings. The winning streak should be at ten after this one is over.

Week 5 ? Sept. 29 at Kansas

The Jayhawks are a bad team and even though this game is on the road the Cowboys should win it easily.

Week 6 ? Oct. 6 vs. Iowa State

The Cowboys have won six straight in this series, but it was close last year in Ames, as Oklahoma State won 49-42. It probably won?t be that close this time.

Week 7 ? Oct. 13 at Kansas State

This is one of those tricky games that will decide the season for the Cowboys. The Wildcats have won two of the last three in Manhattan against OSU.

Week 9 ? Oct. 27 vs. Texas

The Cowboys have done really well against Texas lately, winning six of the last eight meetings. The Longhorns are expected to be improved, but this game is in Stillwater.

Week 10 ? Nov. 3 at Baylor

This is a huge letdown spot for the Cowboys, as they are coming off the game against Texas and have Oklahoma next week. This is the proverbial trap game.

Week 11 ? Nov. 10 at Oklahoma

The last time these teams met they combined to score 114 points. It probably won?t be as high scoring this time around. The Cowboys have not won a game in this series since 2014.

Week 12 ? Nov. 17 vs. West Virginia

This one won?t be easy, as the Mountaineers have an excellent quarterback in Will Grier. This one could be huge for both teams in the Big 12 title race.

Week 13 ? Nov. 24 at TCU

The late season schedule for OSU is very difficult, as they finish on the road in Fort Worth. The Horned Frogs are normally very tough at home and they should get this win.

2018 Oklahoma State Cowboys Win Total Prediction

The schedule for the Cowboys is almost like two separate seasons. The early part is very easy, while the second half is brutal. The Cowboys should be 5-1 or 6-0 when they head into Manhattan to face Kansas State. There is a chance they could be 7- when they face Texas. The problem for Oklahoma State is that two of their last three games look like definitely losses and they might lose all three. If the Cowboys don?t dominate their early season schedule and go at least 6-1 they are not likely to win eight games.

Oddsmakers definitely know what they are doing with the Oklahoma State total, as the most likely scenario has the Cowboys going 8-4 and finishing with exactly eight wins. We?ll lean slightly to the under simply because the games against Kansas State and Texas look like toss-ups and OSU will probably have to win both to get to nine wins.

 

[Cnotes53]

COLLEGE FOOTBALL '18: 6 players starring for losing teams
August 14, 2018

Football being, in many ways, the ultimate team game can make it difficult for good players to shine when the players around them are ... not so good.

Stars toiling on losing teams rarely get much recognition. They almost never win the big awards or get selected to the All-America teams. Time to give some love to those overlooked players whose teams did not reach the postseason last year and might have a hard time climbing back into it in 2018.

Marquise Copeland, DT, Cincinnati

The Bearcats are in the second year of a rebuild under coach Luke Fickell, who brought in the top-ranked recruiting class in the American Athletic Conference this year. Copeland was one of the few real keepers Fickell inherited and probably the team's best player last year. The senior had 63 tackles and 3.5 sacks in 2017. Undersized at 6-foot-2 and 282 pounds, Copeland could develop into an NFL draft pick.

Eric Dungey, QB, Syracuse

Dungey has been starting for the Orange since his freshman season. The problem is he has not been finishing the seasons healthy. When healthy, Dungey is a two-way threat with athleticism and size (6-4, 228) that could draw NFL attention. He enters 2018 as the only active quarterback in FBS with at least 6,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing. The Orange have not been bowl-eligible since 2013. A full season for Dungey is a must for Syracuse to have any chance to get back, but just in case, best catch him in the regular season.

Joe Dineen, LB, Kansas

The fifth-year senior has played on teams that have won six games in four seasons. He also lost most of his 2016 season, when he was poised for a breakout as team captain, to hamstring injury. That big breakout came last season when Dineen led the nation in solo tackles per game (7.6) and set a school record with 25 tackles for loss. Yes, the Jayhawks' defense spends a lot of time on the field and that inflates some stats. But Dineen had almost twice as many tackles as any other Kansas defender. Also, deserving of a shoutout on Kansas is defensive tackle Daniel Wise (16 tackles for loss and seven sacks), who is probably an even better pro prospect than Dineen.

Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

The Bears managed just one victory in 2017, but Mims was a problem for opponents. He caught 61 passes for 1,087 yards and eight touchdowns. His three-touchdown performance against Oklahoma gave the Sooners a legitimate scare. Mims was by far Baylor's best receiver last season, but this year the Bears hope the return of senior Chris Platt from injury and the addition of Tennessee transfer Jalen Hurd, the running back-turned-receiver, gives them one of the best sets of pass-catchers in the Big 12.

Stanley Morgan Jr., WR, Nebraska

Cornhuskers fans are looking toward a hopeful future with new coach Scott Frost after going 4-8 last season under Mike Riley. There is much rebuilding to do, and Nebraska has a difficult schedule in 2018 with road games at Michigan, Ohio State and Wisconsin. A major turnaround would take a minor miracle by Frost. Morgan, though, should be one of the best receivers in the Big Ten as a senior. He caught 61 passes for 986 yards and 10 touchdowns last year.

Trey Smith, OT, Tennessee

Smith stepped into the Volunteers' starting lineup last season as a freshman and played like a veteran. He started games at guard and tackle, and during an ugly year in Knoxville, Smith's performance was a thing of beauty. The offseason provided a scare. He was treated for blood clots in his lungs. Cleared to play, Smith is a 6-foot-6, 320-pound building block for new coach Jeremy Pruitt.

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EXTRA POINT

Six more players to watch on teams that had losing records last season:

Trevon Brown, WR, East Carolina

Trevor Morris, LB, Rutgers

Steven Montez, QB, Colorado

Kyle Shurmur, QB, Vanderbilt

Lexington Thomas, RB, UNLV

Oshane Ximines, DE, Old Dominion

 

[Cnotes53]

QB Starting Props
August 13, 2018
By Bookmaker

The college football season is right around the corner, and some high-profile quarterback battles will soon find a resolution. These coaching decisions can often make or break a season, and even with spring and fall practices to evaluate, many of the choices can cause a lot of sleepless nights.

The most high-profile battle is the one going on at powerhouse Alabama. Jalen Hurts led the Crimson Tide to the national championship game a year ago, but after the team fell behind, Tua Tagovailoa came in and rallied the team to victory for the title. Both quarterbacks have returned and are competing for the starting spot, with Tagovailoa the heavy favorite to win the job.

There is a close battle at Florida State, in which Deondre Francois is aiming to hold off James Blackman. Florida has a quarterback battle in which Feleipe Franks is the favorite but is no given to be the starter.

Arkansas, LSU, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas A&M, UCLA and USC are among the other high-profile programs that are looking to replace their quarterbacks are are looking for a quarterback to seize the starting reins.

College football coaches have to make a lot of big decisions but anointing the correct starting signal-caller is among the biggest. Most of the starters should start coming into clear focus in the next couple of weeks in college football gambling.

College Football Starting Quarterback Odds - per BookMaker.eu

Alabama
Jalen Hurts +400
Tua Tagovailoa -650

Arkansas
Ty Storey +250
Cole Kelley -350

Florida
Emory Jones +878
Kyle Trask +281
Feleipe Franks -267

Florida State
Bailey Hockman +1100
James Blackman +155
Deondre Francois -160

LSU
Justin McMillan +1500
Lowell Narcisse +900
Myles Brennan +500
Joe Burrow -350

Notre Dame
Ian Book +900
Brandon Wimbush -3500

Ohio State
Tate Martell +850
Dwayne Haskins -2500

Oklahoma
Austin Kendall +700
Kyler Murray -1500

Oklahoma State
Dru Brown +1600
Spencer Sanders +650
Taylor Cornelius -750

Texas A&M
Kellen Mond +280
Nick Starkel -400

UCLA
Devon Modster +125
Wilton Speight +150
Dorian Thompson-Robinson +300

USC
Jack Sears +1100
Matt Fink +190
J.T. Daniels -200

Odds Analysis

There are a lot of big-time programs looking for their next quarterback. Alabama has the quarterback battle that has gotten national attention. Hurts spoke out in frustration recently, and while coach Nick Saban said that won?t have any effect on the competition, it seems to point toward Tagovailoa behind ahead in the battle.

UCLA has an interesting competition going on. Josh Rosen was drafted in the first round and his replacement would love to have similar success. Wilton Speight transferred from Michigan and has the most experience among the signal-callers, but doesn?t exactly fit the mold of a Chip Kelly dual threat quarterback. With that in mind, last year?s backup, Devon Modster, is the right pick and at good odds since there is no clear favorite.

Kyler Murray is in an interesting position at Oklahoma. He was drafted by the Oakland Athletics and given a big signing bonus but was allowed to return to the Sooners to play one more football season. Murray is the favorite to take over for Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield. Murray looked good in his chance to see the field in 2017 and should win the job as he is an ultra-talented player.

There could be a possible upset brewing at Florida State. Deondre Francois was the starter last season but suffered a serious injury to his patellar tendon which sidelined him for the year. He has talent but if the injury is an issue it could allow for James Blackman to grab the starting spot.

There is no reason to waste time making wagers on some of the competitions which have clear favorites. Brandon Wimbush is clearly the front-runner for the Notre Dame job but at -3500 he has tremendous odds and it doesn?t pay off anything to be correct.

Morsels of information about all of these competitions should trickle out daily at this point so keep up to date on the latest news when making the wagers in college football betting.

 

[Cnotes53]

Handicapping TCU (7.5)
August 15, 2018

The TCU Horned Frogs could take a step back this season after playing in the Big 12 Championship Game last season. The Horned Frogs lost a number of key players and oddsmakers don?t think TCU is going to be as good this season, as they set the win total for the Horned Frogs at 7.5.

Let?s look at the TCU schedule to see if they will go over or under that number.

2018 TCU Horned Frogs Regular Season Win Total
7.5 (over -120)
7.5 (under -100)

2018 TCU Horned Frogs Schedule Analysis

Week 1 ? Sept. 1 vs. Southern

The opener is a cakewalk for TCU, as Southern is no threat. They are an FCS team and an FCS team isn?t going into Fort Worth and coming out with a win. The last time Southern played a marquee team they were routed 48-6 by Georgia in 2015.

Week 2 ? Sept. 8 at SMU (Dallas)

This game will be closer than the opener, but SMU doesn?t have the defense to contain the Horned Frogs. It could be a high scoring game, as SMU has a new head coach in Sonny Dykes who is known for offense.

Week 3 ? Sept. 15 vs. Ohio State (AT&T Stadium - Arlington, Texas)

This will be a huge game for TCU as they take on the Buckeyes in Arlington. The Buckeyes are considered national title contenders, but who knows what the Urban Meyer mess is going to do to the Buckeyes.

Week 4 ? Sept. 22 at Texas

The conference opener will be interesting, as Texas is expected to be improved this season. This will be a good litmus test for both teams. TCU has not lost to Texas since 2013.

Week 5 ? Sept. 29 vs. Iowa State

The Horned Frogs will be home favorites in this game, but Iowa State won eight games last season and is no pushover. The Horned Frogs will be looking for revenge, as they lost in Ames last season.

Week 7 ? Oct. 11 vs. Texas Tech

The Horned Frogs won 27-3 at Texas Tech last season and there is no reason to think things will be any different this season, especially with this game taking place in Fort Worth.

Week 8 ? Oct. 20 vs. Oklahoma

This is a rematch of the Big 12 title game. The Sooners won both games against TCU last seasons, but this time TCU is at home and the Sooners will have a new quarterback.

Week 9 ? Oct. 27 at Kansas

The Horned Frogs rolled 43-0 at home last season. They did struggle two years ago at Lawrence, but this is still a game TCU should win easily.

Week 10 ? Nov. 3 vs. Kansas State

If the Horned Frogs are going to win eight games this season this is a game they need to win. The Wildcats are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home.

Week 11 ? Nov. 10 at West Virginia

This will be interesting, as the TCU defense will try and slow down Will Grier and the West Virginia offense. The last three meetings in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less.

Week 12 ? Nov. 17 at Baylor

The Horned Frogs pulled away last season to win 45-22. This is a dangerous game for TCU, as they are coming off the game vs. West Virginia and have OSU next week.

Week 13 ? Nov. 24 vs. Oklahoma State

The regular season finale might decide which team goes to a major bowl game and which team gets stuck playing in mid-December. The Horned Frogs are at home and they should get this win.

2018 TCU Horned Frogs Regular Season Win Total Prediction

The schedule for TCU is really favorable, as the Horned Frogs have a lot of winnable games. TCU should beat Southern, SMU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Baylor and Oklahoma State. That gets them to seven wins and they would need to win just one other game to get to eight wins. Almost all of their remaining games are winnable, so the total for the Horned Frogs may be listed too low for this season. We?ll go over the total for TCU this season.

 

[Cnotes53]

ACC - Best Bets
August 15, 2018
By Bookmaker

The Clemson Tigers have been one of the most dominant football programs in the country the past few years and more success is expected in 2018. Clemson has been tabbed the favorite to come away with the Atlantic Coast Conference title, although there are some worthy foes attempting to knock the Tigers off.

The Miami Hurricanes had an impressive year in 2017 and have the type of talent to be nationally ranked this season. The Florida State Seminoles are hoping quarterback Deondre Francois can get back up to speed after a serious injury shortened last season. The Seminoles have talent across the board and could be one of the top challengers.

The Virginia Tech Hokies are more of a longshot because they lost a lot of talent from last year?s team, but they have a solid program and there are some good players waiting in the wings. Most of the other teams are extreme longshots to win the ACC. The Louisville Cardinals were players the last couple of years but lost superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson to the NFL. His absence will send the team back to the middle of the pack as Louisville was often a one-man wrecking crew with only decent talent around him.

It would be a very notable development if teams such as the North Carolina State Wolfpack, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets or the Boston College Eagles were in contention. In the end, Clemson will clearly be the team to beat in college football gambling.

Odds To Win The ACC - per BookMaker.eu
Clemson -205
Miami +508
Florida State +562
Virginia Tech +951
Georgia Tech +3676
North Carolina State +3676
Louisville +4000
Boston College +5000
Duke +5700
Wake Forest +5700
Pittsburgh Panthers +6300
Syracuse +8500
North Carolina +12000
Virginia +23000

Odds Analysis

Clemson is going to be a very good team this year no matter what, but stellar quarterback play could lift it into the national championship conversation. Five-star freshman recruit Trevor Lawrence is vying to be the starting quarterback, although it won?t be easy to win that job against senior Kelly Bryant who obviously has much more experience. If either quarterback can consistently move the offense this season, the Tigers could be eyeing a national title. Even at these odds, they are a good bet because it is hard to figure out a way another team surpasses them in the ACC unless Clemson has unforeseen struggles or is hit hard by injuries.

Miami had a good season a year ago and expectations will be high with many key players back. However, the Hurricanes have some question marks at quarterback, and that is never a good thing. Nothing can torpedo a talented team faster than an erratic passing game, and because of that, Miami should not be the choice to win the division at these odds.

Florida State is the best choice among the second tier of options as it has a possible star quarterback and plenty of talent on both sides of the ball. North Carolina State is a worthwhile longshot gamble at these odds. They have a star quarterback in Ryan Finley and while the overall talent doesn?t match up to teams at the top, there are times a golden arm can lead a team to some upset wins.

It would be a surprise if Clemson doesn?t win this conference again because it has a fantastic defense and weapons offensively. The Tigers are so deep across the board that they must be the pick even at odds that won?t result in a huge payout. When it comes to the ACC Championship, it is best to play it safe with one of the most talented teams in the country in college football betting.

ACC Championship Odds Pick: Clemson Tigers

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