A Theory (So. Ill.)

[Nolan Dalla]

This theory is nothing new, but I'm launching it anyway. I offer this merely as a point of discussion. I'd certainly like to see some feedback on this from anyone who wants to chime in.

First, I have not read any of the other threads on this game yet, so it might have already been covered. If so, then sorry for the redundance.

The SOUTHERN ILLINOIS game tonight was very mysterious. The line was SOUTHERN ILLINOIS +2.5 here locally.

I woke up and saw a few people whom I respect had e-mailed me touts on SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. Then, I also received several trash e-mails promising a lock tonight from the services, which as it turned out was SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. Of course, I do not subscribe to any services, but I later found out SOUTHERN ILLINOIS was the play. It seemed everyone in the universe was touting SOUTHERN ILLINOIS tonight. Unfortunately, I am on just about every sucker list on the Internet to receive these trash mails, and I normally erase them all instantly, but I could not help but see that several touts were on SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

I fell for the trap and bet them, albeit for a small amount (I bet 9 games tonight, so it was just one ticket) -- no big deal.

What I later realized is that the line NEVER moved once (to my knowledge). I find it odd that everyone south of the north poll was on SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, yet the line never moved. Were the sportbooks "taking a stand" on this game, or was there something more sinister here -- an intentional effort on behalf on whales/big bettors to get loads down on CREIGHTON, and giving out false information ont he other side to balance the books with "stupid" money.

I suspect this goes on in certain games, especially college basketball.

Any thoughts and ideas from others as to whether this orchestrated disinformation campaign is a reality, or simply a figment of the imagination?

By the way, CREIGHTON won by 24. SOUTHERN ILLINOIS was a horrendous pick, especially considering this was touted as such a quality pick.

PS -- I did not watch the game and have no knowledge of what happened other than looking at the final score.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[FATMAN]

Nolan I watched the game and so. ill was hurendous:scared

They shot 16% in the 1st half, the score was 42-16
Thank goodness I laid off this one!!
You were right about everybody and their mother being on so. ill
One of these days we'll learn that when everybody is on 1 squad it just ain't happening!!!!:nono:

 

[gardenweasel]

nolan

nolan

that is an excellent observation...i haven`t hooped much this year,but i follow the board....it seems in some instances that certain games seems to have a life of their own.....they seem to be snowballs rolling down the side of a slope of a hill(all due respect to the temptations).......i sometimes wonder if there`s some sort of conspiritorial agenda alive to herd the lambs in a certain direction....and then,when it seems everyone leans a certain way,no line movement...it honestly does make you wonder......:shrug:

 

[Junior44]

I think you've been watching too many episodes of the X-Files. Southern Illinois is a quality team that simply had a bad night shooting the basketball. There was no conspiracy involving the nasty "touts" and the "whales".

 

[Nolan Dalla]

JUNIOR44 wrote:

"I think you've been watching too many episodes of the X-Files. "

REPLY: I do NOT watch the "X-Files." In fact, I have never watched a single episode of the show. I don't even watch TV anymore -- it's a big waste of time.

While I do appreciate your reply, it's not witch hunting to speculate on the possiblity of orchestrated outcomes. I did not suggest the game was fixed, but I was puzzled why the line never moved on this game, despite the entire world being on SO. ILL. That's a legitimate question, one which is difficult to answer.

If history has taught us anything is is that MONEY makes people do unorthodox things. It's certainly not beyond the rhelm of possibility for a betting syndicate to put a series of large bets down, and then (here's where the more implausible part comes in) create a campaign of disinformation. It happens in politics and business ALL THE TIME. Hoinestly -- do you for a second think GAMBLING is immune from these practices?

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[Innavation]

Creighton had just won there previous 2 tournament games by 1 laying double digits in both contests. Last week they lost S.Illinois laying 1 on the road. S.Illinois has a good home record--and were recieving 1. Now on a neurtal court they were laying 3---I thought it was going to be at least 4. Granted, S.Illinois did shoot bad, but Creighton had a lot to do with that. They came out and played great defense. They hedged screens, they helped each other, they rebounded, and on offense they were under control and took open shots. Maybe the line was a tad too low.

 

[loophole]

nah, pure stage fright. i'd been playing siu throught the last couple of weeks of the season and keeping up with the local press on them. coach had really been hyping the conference tourney titles to the team., forget where they were playing, but towards the end of the season they beat one of the conference lessers to clinch a tie for the regular season title and along with it the #1 tourney seed. coach refused to let them cut down the nets saying that they had not met their goal of the conference crown. kept harping on it in the press so much you knew the players were hearing about it.. all that buildup and then when the the big game started, the bounches went the wrong way and they came unglued. college kids folding under the pressure of a big game in the national spotlight, simple as that . they got my money too.

 

[hellah10]

Iam by no means a Missouri Valley type of person...all I know about that conference is that they have 2 great programs - SIU and Creighton. The one person I know from SIU is obviously Jermaine Dearman. This guy can ball - reminds me of PJ Smith at Northern Illinois. He only had 10 points and didnt even go to the free throw line. Gotta give credit where credit is due...Creighton took away SIU's #1 player wether is was double teaming him or even triple teaming him(which they did a few times). I have watched a few SIU games and they are by no means a bad team, they simply just got outplayed and was not prepared to play against Creightons defense. The line did seem fishy....but like I said, I dont know that much about the conference.

But I always do respect Nollans perspective...and he`s right about that line...it never did move. If I wager on a game, and the line dont move -- I get reallll worried.

I was a victim of this game like many others....got screwed in the 2nd Half...but its ok, only 1 game.

Regardless of what happen tonight, Jermaine Dearman is a straight baller - and Creighton took him out of the game

 

[Doc Holiday 12]

Nolan

Nolan

Obviously everyone in this particular thread can beat this and that like a dead horse....But the bottom line is, you had GREAT insight in terms of everybody and their BROTHER was on one side in this game, and the line didn't MOVE.....All I can say is, and I challenge anyone in this thread to go back and look at circumstances similar to this game and you will see, in MOST cases
when the world is on one side, and the line DOESN'T move, you have a WINNER on the other side....I only WISH this happened more often.............GREAT call Nolan...........Doc.

 

[Wilson]

Not to nit pick here....but, the line moved from 2 1/2 to 3 points. Just in case somebody cared.

By the way....this conspiracy theory is kinda funny....no way you keep that covered up. Too many pissed off people witnessed this fiasco.

S. Illionois can suk me.

 

[ThomasJ]

Nolan
Your theroy about misinformation and dumping money on one side is I believe a syndicate type thing and it happens more often than one might believe. As for this game that were talking about I find myself quite suprised this morning that s.ill was such a big fav with bettors. Althogh I seen a few on S. Ill most of the reading I did yesterday had most of the people I respect on creighton and when I got them at gametime I had to settle for 3 and 1.5/1h. I think what were seeing here is a little confusion about who's who in the gamblig world. When I see someone saying thats a public pick, trap etc I wonder to myself don't people understand that we are the "public" and we are manipulated everyday and we just don't know it. I do this full time and I see this quite often actually and as doc h points out you usally have a winner and expierience has taught me to wait till the last second to make your bet on these games that don't move. The line stayed the same because the book did take a stand and we all know the rest.
Tom

 

[goldcupsports]

I will say this Creighton IMHO is one of the most over rated teams in the top 25. I can't wait to see who they are matched up against in the FIrst Round of the tourney. This team is not top 25.

 

[the_fix_is_on]

Southern Ill couldn't throw the ball in the ocean in the first half. I mean some of the 'throws' they took weren't even close. Throw is the better word for what SI was doing. To call them 'shots' is an insult to a real shot.
If I say the 'fix was on', it sounds like sour grapes. But to watch that game, knowing the background info, there seems to be no other conclusion. With all of the "average Joe" action on Southern Ill, and the line barely budging sure looks suspicious. But how could the 'Whales' be sure that SI wouldn't cover? Only if they knew the outcome in advance.
I've been telling a friend of mine that these services are employed by the casinos, but he doesn't believe me. He made two big bets last night. . . one on Southern Ill, and the other on Dallas in the NBA. Both were touts from his sports service. Go figure.

 

[iuod]

i attend southern's games (i live 17 miles from carbondale)--i was horrified and dismayed at last night's game--we had been terrific the last four weeks--we have had two awful games this year--both on the Savvis court in st. louis--we only scored 13 points against st. louis u in the first half--it was an absolutely horrifying rerun------to the discussion-- i was really surprised that the line did not move-- i thought southern would win by 8 to 12 points--when the line did not move, i should have realized siu was in trouble----many times this year i have watched a game where everyone was on the same side and the line did not move---a vast majority of the time it seemed the anti-public team covered-----i'm in mourning---i hope we still get a bid

 

[pistol229]

Don't know of history on this but have to piggy-back Innavation in that CRE was laying DD in the first two and didn't cover in either.

I bet if someone went back to look at this over the last 10 years you would find that rarely did a team win all 3 (or 4) games in a tourney as a fave and not cover one of them. On second thought, i doubt anyone who played foure games would have been a fave in all of them.

Consider that CRE played like ass in both games and shot poorly in both as well and were coming off a loss to the same opponent the week before and this blowout is not shocking at all.

 

[Hoops]

Creighton isn't overrated. Top 25 rankings don't mean that much, but they certainly belong there. They didn't lose at home or on a neutral court all season. Beat Notre Dame earlier in the season when ND was playing their best basketball...week or two later ND smoked Marquette by 20, then beat Maryland and Texas on consecutive days. Beat a good BYU team and waxed a decent Tenn Tech team by 31. Lost at Xavier by 2. This is a very good team with a very good tournament pedigree.

 

[Doc Holiday 12]

Thomas J

Thomas J

Well said..............................Doc

 

[JOE IN NY]

After someone read your post they Emailed this article to me. I cut off the casino names and the handicappers names. I didn?t want to advertise for anyone nor did I want to piss anyone off. But some good reading here.

As many of you know, the sports handicapping industry is as corrupt and dishonest as any industry in America. But what I am about to tell you will make even the most skeptical of you shake your head in disgust about the methods of SCAMdicappers...
Many of you have followed my service for quite some time now and we have received emails on several occasions asking when I will have a sportsbook that I am willing to refer our members to. I was amazed at how many of you still use a street book.
After flying to Costa Rica, Canada, and Europe, I finally found a few sportsbooks that are worthy of my endorsement. But here is what took so long:
When finding a solid sportsbook that I would be willing to refer my members to my #1 objective was finding a book that met all of the following criteria:
A - Significant financial backing that ensured everyone would be paid no matter what the amount.
B - A staff with sufficient customer service representatives that were knowledgeable, kind, and easy to speak with.
C - Ability to process and deliver prompt payouts within 24 hours of a members request to be paid.
These were the requirements I thought were essential before even discussing a financial agreement with a sportsbook. Once those needs were met, I was shocked and disgusted with what I found out.
You have all visited other sports handicapping sites all over the internet that advertise every sportsbook you could ever imagine. I know I have. I thought they were paid like any other site on the internet which usually is per impression or per click through from a banner. NOT WITH SCAMDICAPPERS!
Every time a scamdicapping site refers you to a sportsbook, THEY RECEIVE 25-40% OF WHAT YOU LOSE AT THAT SPORTSBOOK! Not what you win or what you deposit, 25-40% OF WHAT YOU LOSE! STRAIGHT COMMISSION! They track the ID from your computer once you click through even ONCE from one of those sites.
Is that not the most unethical thing you have ever heard? You pay someone to help you win with sports investing, and they couldn't care less if you win or not. In fact, they make FAR MORE money if the picks they give you LOSE!!!
I am not here to drop any specific names or bad mouth any other services, there would be far too many to name, but let me tell you what the handicapping services that I talked to told me:
"It is the best possible situation for a service. If we win for the members, they keep coming back and paying us more for new picks. That is why we try to win. Eventually, everyone loses. It is just a matter of time. We just try to win as much as possible while we can with the client so that they purchase as many picks as possible before they finally lose all the money in the account. Once they lose, we still get 25-40% of whatever they lost. So we made money with the picks they bought from us, and then we made even more with the money they lost with the book."
Our upfront approach and honesty have already ruffled a lot of feathers in this industry. I am anxious to see what kind of response we get once this information is out in the open!
As you all know, this service is based on its honesty, integrity, and ability to obtain the best information available to handicap games. There is no way I could have accepted a deal that offered money for what my members lost. As profitable as it may be for other services, there is not a chance in hell (excuse my French, but this really does have me fired up) that I would ever agree to anything like that.
The sad thing is, with most books, that was the only offer for an affiliation. Basically, they wanted me to tell them that I would intentionally lose money for my members and I would be paid a great commission. Let's just say our conversations didn't end well.
Then, I found a handful of honest books with the funding, customer service, quick payouts, and an advertising agreement I could not only live with, but help my members win with! These are books that are not even affiliated with each other!
No other business is willing to give you every detail of their advertising or commission agreements. At least none that will tell you the truth. But here is the agreement that I was able to negotiate with the books I have chosen:
My service will receive 1% of every dollar PLAYED by the members that I refer to That means for every $50 you bet, my service makes a whopping $0.50 or $0.25.
Obviously, the more money you win, the more often you will be able to bet. The more you continue to bet, the more money we all make.
Let's say you are a dollar player ($100 a game) and you deposit $1000. If you were to play 10 or our regular 1-unit plays in a week and we have an average week at 6-4. You would win $600 and lose $440 for a +$160 profit. Most SCAMdicappers would be angry because they would make nothing from their sportsbook.
You will have just played $1000 worth of bets and I will have made enough to buy a McDonald's Happy Meal at $10. But that money means nothing to me. The $160 that you made is what I care about. Trust me when I say that for every $100 you bet, my own personal money is on that game and normally 50-100 times the amount. I play every selection I release to you. If my own money is not on a pick, you will not see it released to our members.
THE BOTTOM LINE: The more winners I provide you, the more money you make. The more money you make, the better I feel (and it obviously means I am doing well myself with the picks).
I will always win money with sports investing just by playing my own picks. That is not an issue. I want you to reap the rewards of playing our winning selections. The key: It is not a short term, get rich quick scheme! You need to use our money management system that has made me one of the most wealthy professional sports gamblers in America. Our PLATINUM MEMBERS realize this and have been making some of the biggest profits they have ever seen in their lives. I want everyone to be able to accomplish this.
BUT, I realize that not everyone is a dime player and not everyone can afford to pay over $3000 for a PLATINUM MEMBERSHIP. That is why I want to do something to help everyone this football season. I feel like I need to earn your respect and trust after finding out even more disturbing facts about this industry. I want to earn your trust and I also want to make you money. If you give me the chance, I will do both of those things.

 

[zoomer]

Joe,
Hope you aren't buying that crap. "doing something for people"
"Platinum " selections. LOL

 

[worm44]

huh?:shrug: