A Total and More

[eztds]

At first glance I thought the total in tonight's Wash/GS game was low by the standards of the last 9 GS points allowed:

117
110
115
121
107
95
109
109
116 = an average of 111 pts allowed per game

AND

with Wash allowing

95
98
96
104
98
99
95
90
102 = an average of 97' pts points per game

one might conclude this one goes over due to a lack of defense on both sides of the ball!!!

ALSO

GS is scoring above seasonal average in the last 5:

100
102
101
96
105 = 101 average (their sea. aver. is 96')

Again....pointing toward the over.

BUT AFTER FURTHER INVESTIGATION

Wash seems to be struggling with offense in their last 5 and on this West Coast trip:

80 vs. Port and Rip with 8 pts
103 Vs. Sea but that was with a 34 pt Sea defensive melt down in the 4th
75 vs. LAC
99
91 = 89' average (their sea. aver is 92)

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SO

-Ya have both teams giving up big point, one team scoring 4' points above seasonal average and the other scoring 3' below seasonal average.

-Last meeting on Nov. 9 was a 109-100 GS win in Wash and well over the 201 total of tonight.

-To me the decision comes down to------> who's NOT playing in tonight's game......no MJ (injured) and no Fortson (suspended for flagrant tally post'n up Shaq). Last meeting between these teams MJ had 32 and Fortson 16 of the 209 total.

-Yes, Murphy managed 13 points replacing Fortson last game BUT that was against the Mavs who don't care if the opposition scores. Murphy will have trouble getting 13 against a better defense.

-These factors....plus....a Wiz team that has stuggled for points on this West Coast trip has me on the U 201. Hope'n GS can play a LITTLE bit of defense and this one should "cash".

-This play is against the trends:

*over is 8-1-1 in the past 10 Wash/GS games

*over is 11-4 in GS last 15

Should Rip be off tonight....the heck with the trends....I think we'll have a winner. Expect the Wiz have begun doubting themselves without MJ as Rip feels the weight of carring the team.

Also, tonight's absence of Fortson's 11' pts/gm average for GS will bring this one in regardless of the past trends.

In other action:

Like'n Det -5 <-----Tonight Den has.......no Hardaway who dislikes TV monitors and a hobbled McDyess who'll see limited (if any) minutes. Those 2 issues along with the Feb. 13 trades to Dallas has left Den a bankrupt offensive unit!!

Course Det can go into a scoring funk at any point during the game and that makes me like the u 187' here as well.

The final offering among tonight's games comes in the Port/Bost affair. Like'n the o 195 as the Celts seem to be scoring well and Port is currently a "hot" team. See a close game right down to the wire as both teams chase each other until the final horn!

Recapp'n tonight's plays:

Port/Bost o 195

Det -5

Det/Den u 187'

Wash/GS u 201

GLTA MadJackers!!!

116-73-2...YTD ez

 

[eztds]

Well now........this is scary!!

Well now........this is scary!!

Just went to OLY and placed the plays:

Got 3 of them a 1/2 a point better.....aahhoo gsp.....I sure hate it when Vegas helps me out.

BUT

Stick'n with these as played:

Port/Bost o 194'

Det -4'

Det/Den u 187'

Wash/GS u 201'

GL ez

 

[eztds]

Just realized........no "pushes" tonight!!!

Just realized........no "pushes" tonight!!!

It's "winnah" or "bust" in a 4 round duel!

Warfare at its finest tonight, "Ask'n for no quarter...and...none will be given!!

Feel like "kill'n" da man tonight! ez

 

[thunderdoll]

You guys are trying your hardest to change my mind. I still can't see the under in the GS/Wash game.
The point totals you posted point to the number being low.
Since Michael has been out Washington has picked up the pace and become a running team. That is not to say that they are any good at it just that they like to run.
Neither team plays good defense.
I respect you guys opinions and for now I am making this a NO PLAY while I give it more thought.

Good luck on your plays

 

[eztds]

TD

TD

At first glance I liked the OVER when this line came out.....but.....after some futher capp'n had that "pit in the stomach" feeling as I:

1. Saw Rip's total in the last game at Port.

2. Remembered that Fortson will be out tonight.

3. Recognized that in the Wiz's last 5 they are 3' points below seasonal average.

4. Thought about whether I wanted to rely on an offensively tired act'n Wiz team play'n their 4th West Coast game in 5 days. (With 4 more road games yet to go before they get back to Wash.....WOW!)

5. Therefore, even if you say GS is allowing 111 pt/gm average in their last 9.....will Wash be able to drain 'em tonight???

6. To me Rip is the key.....and to a lesser extent Lue. Do they have "shooting" legs tonight EVEN if it does become a track meet??

I normally give more credence to those "pit in the stomach" feelings than I do my first impulses on a play. GL....whatever you do. ez

 

[eztds]

P.S.

P.S.

The Wiz's seasonal average with MJ's help is only 92 pts/gm.

Since they are 3' below that in their last 5 games....they are hitting an an 89' pt/gm clip.

Therefore, even if they get back their seasonal average of 92 tonight.....will GS be able to score 109' without Fortson????

201'(o/u total) - 92 (Wiz seasonal average) = 109'

Just something else to ponder. ez

 

[TJBELL]

EZ and the gang, great stats on the 1 game total!! my eyes are damn sore from reading this whole thread!

took the under 200.5 FWIW. good luck guys!!!!!!!!!

 

[wigs]

ez, got another prop that i'd like a commentary on if you get the time b/c i like this bet but dont dabble in nba too much so i'd like to get some feedback from ya..got a prop for the highest LOSING score of the day in the nba, over or under 104.5....like the under here, looking at the games on the card, i guess golden state is the one game that looks like it could surpass this but det/den shouldnt be close to it, nor do i see bos/por cha/mil or hou/la getting this high- not gonna go nuts on this play, but just wanted your thoughts. thanks!!!

 

[eztds]

Wigs.............

Wigs.............

I'd play the u 104' for tonight's losing score:

-Even with MJ last November the Wiz only made it to 100. IMHO GS wasn't play'n any better defense back then....than they are currently. :shrug:

However.....

-What scares me more about the play would be an OT in either the Wash/GS or Port/Bost games. That would be the death of your play should OT occur in one of those two games. As I said earlier, that Port/Bost game could play right down to the horn.

Course an OT in the Wash/GS and I'm screwed too!

GLTY wigs....if ya play it.

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GL to us tonight TJBELL......sorry I hurt your eyes with all the stats! I was on the other side of this play....until I scoped out at the numbers.

Usually.....when I don't follow the numbers....I get my fanny in a crack! ez

 

[wigs]

ez thanks for responding, will make a small play on this one and hope for no OTs and some D out in oakland, just some D or maybe a few more missed shots and a wash team hungry for a win, perhaps slowing it down a little more--good luck tonight

 

[eztds]

wigs........

wigs........

Collins had a real stressed out look on his face at Portland the other night.

I think this whole Wiz team sees this season slipping away before MJ returns and can get back into a playing groove!

Creating.........P-R-E-S-U-R-E

Collins has 4 more games on the road with this young team before they get some homecookin. I think he senses a slide before this horrible and untimely road trip comes to an end.

Hope'n that "sinking" feeling goes into every Wiz shot that goes up tonight. ez

 

[Dragon]

ez-

It's nice to see you around. Our friend Spock said to say "hello" to you. He has been having some problems retrieving cash from firepay and refuses to fund his account until the problem is resolved. I can't blame him. Good luck on your plays. Hope you will hang out for some HT action.

 

[wigs]

oh well ez, looks like the f'n track meet in charlotte is going to kill this one early, back to the grind

 

[thunderdoll]

EZ, Nice call on the over- under. Thanks for talking me out of the over. Good handicapping!

 

[TJBELL]

EZ, sweet!!! will take any win we can get!!

let's do it again 2nite!

ps: thanks Raymond

 

[eztds]

wigs.............

wigs.............

What the heck happened with that Mil/Char under 104' for the loser???? Mil left the defense in the lockeroom after HT.....that 3rd period cost the Bucks---->who suck.

I woulda never considered that game as the one that woulda blind-sided ya.

Frustrating when all the other games covered on the play for ya. But like ya said....."back to the grind".

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TD & TJ

Thanks for the replies.......it looked bad in 1H as Murphy went on a terror with 7. Collins finally got him shut down in 2H and Murphy ended the game with 8.

Rip was "off" just enough with 17 points to allow us the cover.

Some could call the Wash/GS u 201 "luck".....but it was just as "unlucky" that Port/Bost couldn't muster 87 points during 2H (after a 107 point 1H). Celts tried to match Port's 3 ball in 2H and failed miserably.

When "west" meets "east" in the NBA.....the "west" has the upper hand........with minor exceptions!

Such is life my friends......win some and lose some. ez