with all due respect to jack, no clue why my college football thread with writeups was closed :shrug: but played these for saturday:
season.......6-2 (+8.4 units)
already played:
miami, ohio (-3.5) for a unit (write-up earlier in the week)
on the surface, this goes against the capping maxim of laying road chalk to a power conference team, but i think the redhawks are well justified to be laying some points here. the two teams come in with very different mindsets. northwestern is in off of a down-to-the-wire loss to air force on saturday where they flat out gave the falcons the game (cats led 21-7 going into the 4th quarter only to lose 22-21 after air force had a rushing TD, returned an interception to the house, and then eventually won it on a short field goal on a later possession). miami comes in and will be very well prepared, having a full 2 weeks off to make adjustments following their loss in iowa. roethlisberger had a tough time vs iowa (4 INTs) but facing iowa and facing northwestern are two entirely different things. northwestern has a perenially porous defense that is susceptible to the big play. with miami having 2 weeks to prepare for this one, i think this one has points galore from both teams, and miami quite honestly is a much more sound football team- even though the cats are a power conference program. also, its worth noting that northwestern is going to have to adjust to a completely different scheme from last week to this week. air force was an exclusively option team where northwestern could gear for the run every play. now they have to make a quick turnaround and scheme for a redhawk team thats probably going to throw 40-45 times. and i dont think the cats are good enough to stop miami. also, it seems like the line is telling me something here- its rare to see a mac team other than marshall lay anything on the road to a power team. roethlisberger and the redhawks bounce back and should win a high scoring game by 7-10 points.
la tech (+11) for a unit (write-up earlier in the week)
really think this is a spot where michigan state can struggle. while the spartans are scoring and moving the ball well on offense this year, their defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially against the pass- and thats latech's bread and butter. although its just 2 games in, it appears msu just doesnt have that killer instinct. they had a chance to cover both games this year, but they seem to allow teams to stick around. tech should be able to hang within a touchdown. also worth noting that michigan state has two huge games on deck and this could be a big time flat spot. this is their 3rd of three games vs inferior teams (western michigan, rutgers, and now latech) and the spartans have games with #14 notre dame and #19 iowa coming up the next two weeks. msu has never been a real "disciplined" team in terms of taking care of business and not looking ahead. i think this game will stay very close throughout.
also playing:
notre dame/michigan under 44
both teams coming off of high scoring games, but really think this one is gonna be a grind-it-out affair. notre dame doesnt enough firepower to get into a shootout with michigan. and notre dame has a tendency to play low scoring games vs elite opponents. michigan seems to be hitting on all cylinders in the first two weeks (although it has been vs inferior opponents); notre dames defense should keep the irish in the game. problem for notre dame is that i dont see them scoring more than 13 points. michigan 24-13 sounds about right.
added: 1 unit.....arizona (+12) over oregon
just a gut feeling on this one. just seems way too easy to think oregon rolls. really think its worth noting that zona gets a chance to redeem themselves on primetime tv after last weeks debacle. i cant fathom arizona playing that poorly again. conference double digit road chalk can be suicidal, and im gonna take a shot on the ugly dog here. zona players gotta sack up and show some pride.
added: 1 unit... akron over 64.5 (write-up below)
season.......6-2 (+8.4 units)
already played:
miami, ohio (-3.5) for a unit (write-up earlier in the week)
on the surface, this goes against the capping maxim of laying road chalk to a power conference team, but i think the redhawks are well justified to be laying some points here. the two teams come in with very different mindsets. northwestern is in off of a down-to-the-wire loss to air force on saturday where they flat out gave the falcons the game (cats led 21-7 going into the 4th quarter only to lose 22-21 after air force had a rushing TD, returned an interception to the house, and then eventually won it on a short field goal on a later possession). miami comes in and will be very well prepared, having a full 2 weeks off to make adjustments following their loss in iowa. roethlisberger had a tough time vs iowa (4 INTs) but facing iowa and facing northwestern are two entirely different things. northwestern has a perenially porous defense that is susceptible to the big play. with miami having 2 weeks to prepare for this one, i think this one has points galore from both teams, and miami quite honestly is a much more sound football team- even though the cats are a power conference program. also, its worth noting that northwestern is going to have to adjust to a completely different scheme from last week to this week. air force was an exclusively option team where northwestern could gear for the run every play. now they have to make a quick turnaround and scheme for a redhawk team thats probably going to throw 40-45 times. and i dont think the cats are good enough to stop miami. also, it seems like the line is telling me something here- its rare to see a mac team other than marshall lay anything on the road to a power team. roethlisberger and the redhawks bounce back and should win a high scoring game by 7-10 points.
la tech (+11) for a unit (write-up earlier in the week)
really think this is a spot where michigan state can struggle. while the spartans are scoring and moving the ball well on offense this year, their defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially against the pass- and thats latech's bread and butter. although its just 2 games in, it appears msu just doesnt have that killer instinct. they had a chance to cover both games this year, but they seem to allow teams to stick around. tech should be able to hang within a touchdown. also worth noting that michigan state has two huge games on deck and this could be a big time flat spot. this is their 3rd of three games vs inferior teams (western michigan, rutgers, and now latech) and the spartans have games with #14 notre dame and #19 iowa coming up the next two weeks. msu has never been a real "disciplined" team in terms of taking care of business and not looking ahead. i think this game will stay very close throughout.
also playing:
notre dame/michigan under 44
both teams coming off of high scoring games, but really think this one is gonna be a grind-it-out affair. notre dame doesnt enough firepower to get into a shootout with michigan. and notre dame has a tendency to play low scoring games vs elite opponents. michigan seems to be hitting on all cylinders in the first two weeks (although it has been vs inferior opponents); notre dames defense should keep the irish in the game. problem for notre dame is that i dont see them scoring more than 13 points. michigan 24-13 sounds about right.
added: 1 unit.....arizona (+12) over oregon
just a gut feeling on this one. just seems way too easy to think oregon rolls. really think its worth noting that zona gets a chance to redeem themselves on primetime tv after last weeks debacle. i cant fathom arizona playing that poorly again. conference double digit road chalk can be suicidal, and im gonna take a shot on the ugly dog here. zona players gotta sack up and show some pride.
added: 1 unit... akron over 64.5 (write-up below)
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