Adding a Hedge Play

[TheShrimp]

A) atl: $135 to win $100 ML
B) mon: $135 to win $100 RL

3 scenarios:
1) atl wins by 2+. You just lost $35. (A wins 100. B loses 135)
2) Mon wins. You just lost $35. (B wins 100. A loses 135)
3) Atl wins by 1. You just won $200. (A wins 100. B wins 100)

I wrote it up meaning "270 total wagered. If (A) happens, you get back $235, the $135 bet plus the $100 you won"

You must always get something back in this scheme, just like a middle. In the original scheme, you can get middled, as Nolan did last night.

Sorry if I wasn't clear.

TheShrimp

 

[taoist]

...my apologies Shrimp. my mind's in another place today.... :shrug:

...the difference to me is that in nolan's example, he's giving the book a small middle and taking both of the sides for a lower risk - lower payoff; whereas in valuist's example, he's trying to hit the small middle for a higher risk - higher payoff.

...when i say "lower risk" or "higher risk" - what i mean and probably really should say is nolan is giving the book the long shot (i.e. the chance the game will end up with the fav winning by 1 run), whereas valuist is trying to hit the long shot.

...although i haven't seen the numbers, i would tend to agree with you that games with totals at each end of the spectrum could be profitable using both systems over the long run. this is definitely a discussion that i hope that others will chime in on....

...these are the kinds of discussions that keep me coming back to Jack's Place. ...keep up the great work guys!!!

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Shrimp makes several good points worth noting.

Also, to Nighthorse's question -- I did NOT run the data for games and record the results of totals, only the opening totals for the games. I'm afraid running anything more complicated wold be very time-consuming.

One point I do want to make is you must get at least EVEN on both sides of the bet. I do not recommend laying a price over 100 to get a side in the hopes of getting back +180 or higher on the other side. What we are looking for is +135/+135 splits (or close to it) where the total is 11.5 or higher. However, the basics are the same if you want to play this across the board, just that your varience will be extremely high.

Nolan Dalla

 

[Valuist]

Shrimp--

You do make several good points. I do believe there are some instances worth trying to middle. Besides the total being low (7.5 or below), the favorite must be the home team, so they only get 8 at bats if they are ahead. A relatively weak hitting team as the favorite; preferably who's closer did not pitch the day before. Other factors like wind blowing in or having gotten into town late after a night game the previous night could definitely help. Also, certain teams just seem to play more 1-run games than others.

 

[IE]

I put a link up on the resource page which might be of help,
called Runline Helper, in the baseball table of links.

resource page

make sure to refresh page.

good luck

IE