In today's report, I listed the following play:
MIAMI -6 vs. NY KNICKS (BEST BET)
Heat seemed to go through the motions last night at Philadelphia, perhaps looking ahead to tonight's home matchup with their rivals. Heat have played very good ball the last two months, compiling a 17-9 SU record since Jan. 1. Miami is now seeking a playoff spot and could be dangerous in a very weak Eastern Conference. They face one of the NBA's worst road teams here, as New York is just 6-19 SU on the road this season. Knicks were also hammered at home by the Heat on Feb. 3, losing 94-83. Heat are coming off a loss and won't take New York lightly at home. Look for Miami to shut down New York's anemic offense and cover this reasonable number.
Adding one more play. This jumped off the sheet at me when I saw the total this morning:
MEMPHIS / UTAH UNDER 186
Average total between these two teams the last five seasons has been 187....with 9 OVERS and 16 UNDERS. This is one trend where historical data applies, since Jazz and Grizzlies have consistently been at opposite ends of the Western Conference. Last 7 matchups (dating back to 2000 regular season), point totals have gone as follows: 166 (Feb 5), 192, 165, 184, 174, 185, and 159 (NOTE: The 192 was a double OT game). We get the added chance that at least one, if not both teams could be fatigued tonight -- Utah playing first game back after 9-game road trip (usually a sluggish first game back situation), and Memphis playing it's 3rd game in 4 nights, with a road game tomorrow. Expect Memphis to use its bench quite a bit and shoot its customary 40 percent. Even assuming Utah comes up big (they should cover here), there's less chance of fouls being a factor and a good possibility that the second half both teams will just go through the motions. Here's a thought: If Memphis could only manage 91 points against the dreadful Dallas defense two nights ago, how are they going to come up with that number tonight? Utah plays tempo according to its opponent -- runs with teams like SAC, but is generally more conservative versus regular opponents. Jazz 98 Grizzlies 82 sounds about right.
-- Nolan Dalla
MIAMI -6 vs. NY KNICKS (BEST BET)
Heat seemed to go through the motions last night at Philadelphia, perhaps looking ahead to tonight's home matchup with their rivals. Heat have played very good ball the last two months, compiling a 17-9 SU record since Jan. 1. Miami is now seeking a playoff spot and could be dangerous in a very weak Eastern Conference. They face one of the NBA's worst road teams here, as New York is just 6-19 SU on the road this season. Knicks were also hammered at home by the Heat on Feb. 3, losing 94-83. Heat are coming off a loss and won't take New York lightly at home. Look for Miami to shut down New York's anemic offense and cover this reasonable number.
Adding one more play. This jumped off the sheet at me when I saw the total this morning:
MEMPHIS / UTAH UNDER 186
Average total between these two teams the last five seasons has been 187....with 9 OVERS and 16 UNDERS. This is one trend where historical data applies, since Jazz and Grizzlies have consistently been at opposite ends of the Western Conference. Last 7 matchups (dating back to 2000 regular season), point totals have gone as follows: 166 (Feb 5), 192, 165, 184, 174, 185, and 159 (NOTE: The 192 was a double OT game). We get the added chance that at least one, if not both teams could be fatigued tonight -- Utah playing first game back after 9-game road trip (usually a sluggish first game back situation), and Memphis playing it's 3rd game in 4 nights, with a road game tomorrow. Expect Memphis to use its bench quite a bit and shoot its customary 40 percent. Even assuming Utah comes up big (they should cover here), there's less chance of fouls being a factor and a good possibility that the second half both teams will just go through the motions. Here's a thought: If Memphis could only manage 91 points against the dreadful Dallas defense two nights ago, how are they going to come up with that number tonight? Utah plays tempo according to its opponent -- runs with teams like SAC, but is generally more conservative versus regular opponents. Jazz 98 Grizzlies 82 sounds about right.
-- Nolan Dalla
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