afc championship game thoughts and questions .......

gman2

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* steelers won the first meeting on the same field. yet are getting points in the rematch

pittsburgh knows they can beat this team. patriots didnt have dillon that game, but as on objective observer, it wouldnt have mattered. steelers dominated every phase of that game.

* isnt it somewhat telling that a 15-1 team is a home underdog in the afc title game?

this is whats most glaring to me. all this talk about the public on the pats because of this past sundays games. well one thing i know for sure is that there are a helluva lotta people that will be awfully tempted to grab 3 points with a team who not only is 15-1, not only playing at HOME, and on a long winning steak, but who also beat this pats soundly in late october. for every novice bettor who is laying 3 with the pats because of what he saw last sunday, theres gonna be a novice bettor thinking hes stealing money by grabbing 3 points with a 15-1 home team.

* belichick vs. cowher

one coach chokes in big games, especially in the afc championship round.

the other has proven that he can win the big game time and again.

have said it before, but found it still interesting. lots of pittsburgh transplants living in the area here have little faith that steelers wont choke in the afc title game again. it almost seems like theyre resigning themselves to that happening.

brady vs. roethlisberger

obviously, im a roethlisberger fan. but again on sunday, brady showed why he is the better quarterback than manning. would the result have been different in indy? im not sure, but certainly there would have been more points scored. the fact remains, however, that peyton manning couldnt lead his team into the endzone once. all the excuses cant make up for that fact. brady didnt do anything spectacular, but when the chips were down, he did it again. i dont think this is gonna be a qb battle, because pittsburgh is gonna try and control it on the ground. but still damn near impossible to go against brady with a rookie qb. but to his credit, roethlisberger is incredibly poised so hes not going to win or lose the game for pittsburgh. he should manage it well, although im sure he will see a ton of new looks from the pats D

all told, id be really surprised if pittsburgh performs poorly again and looks as bad as they did saturday. thats not gonna happen. theyre much better than that. new england has looked beatable at times on the road this season.

but i find it awfully tough to lay down money against new england with the super bowl on the line....especially when youre laying it down with bill cowher.
 

CWood97

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gman, I agree with everything you say, and I rarely bet against Brady and Belichick. However, I don't see any difference in this game than the last one, except for Dillon. And if last week reminded us of anything, its that you bet teams and not players. The only way to beat the Pats is to line up and punch em in the mouth (or get incredibly lucky like Miami). Pittsburgh did it on 10/31 and I think they can/will do it again.
 

vyrus858

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Guys, this is probably one of the toughest game to handicapp all year...ALl in all i reccomend a small to normal sized wager on this game, because it will ALL come down to whether Ben will step up his game like he has proven he can and whether Dillon will get the 120+ yards to keep the ball away from Pitt...Hope we hit this guys, all in all I see this line being entirley based on Bens peformance last week AND Bellichiks defensive genius after he gets a taste of a team once
 

Hindsite

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I guess Porter's three sacks and manhandling of Matt Light didn't have a part in causing that ???? He struggles against speed rushers....

Are you saying Brady just gave it up, or was it the Steelers D making plays.....

If anyone can figure out the 3-4 schemes it is Dick ******. He created the zone blitz. Ben will be ready!

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=inth...v=tsn&type=lgns
 
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AR182

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gman2 quote:" but to his credit, roethlisberger is incredibly poised so hes not going to win or lose the game for pittsburgh. he should manage it well, although im sure he will see a ton of new looks from the pats D"


i disagree with you.....rothlisberger did not look poised saturday vs. the jets....he threw short on numerous passes & threw into double, triple, & even quadruple coverages.....& if it wasn't for the jets kicker choking....his int almost cost them the game.

as a matter of fact ben has looked like a rookie for the last few weeks of the season......

that said, i haven't decided yet what side i'm taking....lppking hard at the unders
 

ocelot

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gman I/m with you...and what are the chances ANY team is going to beat NE twice in the same year?

This is the easy game. Its the NFC game that is the tough call in my opinion.
 
S

S-Love

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hawkeye said:
I think QB adn the kicking game will be the difference--NE has better QB-but who has the better kicking game?

If you mean FG kickers, there probably aren't many better clutch and/or better foul weather kickers than Vinatieri. That said however, Heinz field is one of the worst stadiums in league for kickers...Belichick referenced it in his weekly local radio interview today...said Heinz field has pretty bad footing and cross-winds, particularly at the open end of the stadium. Anything outside 40 yards becomes iffy.
 

gardenweasel

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it`s gonna be a very physical game........and the roethlisberger factor is the one variable that is scaring me in this one.....that and the coaching mismatch.....


still,i like physical clubs vs the pats...and pittsburgh may be the most physical club in the league....you won`t see the time of possesion differential in this game...like we saw vs the colts....

when a team gives up an offensive and defensive td in a ballgame....and still wins,it`s pretty amazing...even though,imo,the jets gave the game away with edwards` conservatism in the late going...

no bag shot here.....that`s why i`m teasing pitt and the under...and it`s still a tough wager.....i think the steeler secondary can be had...

trying to get a line on the weather....
 

lenniethelock

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this is going to be my biggest bet of the year pitt+3.i live 45 min.from pitt,and grew up hateing the steelers as long as i can remember.but i do always have a good read on this team.i know the line really makes you think long and hard but trust me they got there shit game out of the way,and the pats i believe will have a small letdown.playing pitt+3,under 36,and pounding the steelers on the ml+130. gl and follow pitt as they again capture the world championship.
 
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