AFC continued
AFC South
Houston Texans
This is a team ready to make a move, but they're in a very tough division. Defense is where they needed help, and they got it with their first two picks, both first rounders in the draft. Both guys were sort of unknowns, but cornerback Dunta Robinson and linebacker Jason Babin are both very good, and I see Babin being a Kevin Greene-type of player on and off the field, which will affect the team positively. The Texans also improved their defense with the addition of defensive tackle Robaire Smith. Offensively, there's a lot to be excited about. Quarterback David Carr has shown improvement and receiver Andre Johnson should have a good year. The signing of right tackle Todd Wade will definitely help them. Their running back, Domanick Davis, was a surprise in 2003 and needs to remain a key part of the offense if the team plans on scoring lots of points. This is a very well-run organization with great ownership. They'll be better than their 5-11 last year, but the question is if they will win enough games to qualify for the playoffs.
Indianapolis Colts
You already know what this team has that makes them so special: Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James. That trio makes the headlines, but there are other factors that favor the Colts. Their offensive line is very good, and the return of tight end Dallas Clark should help the offense spread defenses thin. Remember, this is a tight end-oriented team, and Manning likes to find those big targets. They also have excellent special teams thanks to their punter, Hunter Smith, and placekicker, Mike Vanderjagt. The Colts need to stop the run and continue to be on the plus side of the turnover department. The Colts do not have a favorable schedule to start the season -- at New England, then at Tennessee before hosting Green Bay then going to Jacksonville. If they can survive that, they'll be looking good.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Here's another up-and-coming team in an up-and-coming division. The Jaguars have a young quarterback in Byron Leftwich and a very good, underrated offensive line. Both of those factors should contribute to running back Fred Taylor, who needs to be at least as good as he was last year while avoiding injuries. In addition, if first-round draft pick Reggie Williams can step right in at wide receiver and be counted on, the offense will be dangerous. The Jaguars defense got a real boost from the free-agent market by signing safety Deon Grant and bringing back veteran end Tony Brackens. They really have a good defensive line, which is the first part in building a good defensive unit. They play games at Minnesota and at Green Bay late in the year, which could make or break their season.
Tennessee Titans
Head coach Jeff Fisher always does a great coaching job with his team, and he's really one of the most underrated coaches in the NFL. He gets his guys to play well when they're hurt, and he gets his guys to win on the road. Speaking of underrated, the Titans will still have Steve McNair and Eddie George as their primary skill-position stars in 2004. McNair was the NFL's co-MVP on offense last year and is a threat with his arm and feet at quarterback. George needs to have a year better than the last couple of years if he wants to provide the Titans with a sound running game. Tennessee had cap problems and lost some veteran starters, primarily defensive linemen Jevon Kearse and Robaire Smith. But the Titans spent eight draft picks on defense, including four of their first six picks on defensive linemen. The challenge for the Titans lies in a chunk of their schedule where they're on the road for three consecutive weeks -- all against division rivals beginning Nov. 21. If they're thinking playoffs, they need to have a good record before then and win at least two of those three games. The good news is that the Titans are very good on the road -- 42-30 over the last nine seasons.
AFC West
Denver Broncos
This is a tough team to figure out. They have a lot of talent but haven't met expectations the past few years, and there's no guarantee that will be any different this year. The team traded Clinton Portis for cornerback Champ Bailey and there's questions abound on who will replace Portis at running back. They also lost Shannon Sharpe to retirement, and his spot needs to be filled. Last year's No. 1 pick, George Foster, will be asked to step in and play right tackle, and receiver Ashley Lelie, who was the team's No. 1 pick in 2002, needs to have a big year. So what's right with Denver? Well, they run a running back-friendly scheme, and with Quentin Griffin, newcomer Garrison Hearst and rookie Tatum Bell in house, someone should emerge. They also drafted well defensively, specifically taking linebacker D.J. Williams in the first round. He should help that defense a lot. The defensive line should come into play, but the unti will have to overcome the loss of free agent Bert Berry, who had 11? last season. With the addition of Bailey, the Broncos now have three very good cornerbacks, and that should come into play when they take on their pass-oriented division rivals. They open at home against Kansas City and close at home against Indianapolis -- two tough games.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs probably made fewer changes than anyone else in the league. Their biggest loss was offensive tackle John Tait, and their biggest gain was his replacement, John Welbourn, whom they traded for from Philadelphia during the draft. The Chiefs had the second-best record in 2003 at 13-3, scored 484 points, was plus-14 in turnovers and won all their regular-season home games, but they couldn't advance past the second round of the playoffs. As a matter of fact, the Chiefs have lost their last three playoff games at home. They need to figure out a way to stop the run, something that may have been partially solved with the drafting of defensive tackle Junior Siavii, the team's top draft pick this year. Hopefully he will help Kansas City improve from their 30th overall ranking in run defense. This is a team that is better at home than on the road, and they play Carolina, New England and Indianapolis at home in 2004 -- three games that the Chiefs have a good chance of winning because they're at Arrowhead.
Oakland Raiders
Oakland did a great job in the offseason to improve their team, primarily through free agency. Quarterback Kerry Collins, assuming he starts, will have a good year, defensive linemen Warren Sapp and Ted Washington are sure to improve the defense, linebacker Danny Clark should help the front seven, and offensive lineman Ron Stone can help anchor a recovering offensive line. Also helping that offensive line is first-round pick (No. 2 overall) Robert Gallery, who will be a star on that team. But their best additions may have been made on the sidelines with Norv Turner becoming the head coach, Rob Ryan the defensive coordinator (he should do some good things) and Jimmy Raye the offensive coordinator. Already they are laying the groundwork for a successful season. In fact, one of the "surprises" they may have in store is wide receiver Doug Gabriel, a fifth-round pick in the 2003 draft. Gabriel may actually unseat Jerry Rice as a starter. The Raiders will have to play at Carolina and Indianapolis, but their biggest game comes early when Jon Gruden and the Bucs come to the Black Hole on Sept. 26.
San Diego Chargers
There's no doubt in my mind that they have the best running back in the NFL today in LaDainian Tomlinson. He had 1,600-plus rushing yards, 100 receptions and 17 total touchdowns in 2003 and will again be San Diego's primary offensive weapon. But who will his quarterback be? Since 1987, the Chargers have had 18 different starting quarterbacks. That streak could end soon since the team acquired rookie quarterback Philip Rivers in the 2004 draft. If incumbent quarterback Drew Brees starts off slowly, Rivers could pull a "Lou Gehrig" and replace him for good. Question marks remain among the receivers, and the offensive line needs to improve, but this is a team clearly interested in getting younger after purging 11 veterans from the 2003 roster. They also have a new defensive coordinator in Wade Phillips, a former head coach with a successful track record. Like Kansas City, the Chargers drafted an interesting prospect to help their defensive line. Igor Olshansky has limited football experience, but he's so strong and athletic that he could play anywhere along the D-line. The Chargers have back-to-back road games on three separate occasions in 2004, including two where they fly across most of the country in consecutive weeks. Head coach Marty Schottenheimer will earn his frequent flyer miles this year.
