AFC South Champion - Bet analysis

[GM]

Looking for some input here on a bet I am considering:

Odds to win the AFC South Division:
Indianapolis: 2/3
Jacksonville: 11/5
Tennessee: 3/1
Houston: 300/1

No, I'm not considering betting Houston.

And I really don't think Tennessee has a legit shot either. So, first question...does anyone out there think the Titans DO have a legit chance at the division crown? 'Cause that would screw up everything.

Ok, looking at Indy and Jax...Indy is a game ahead at the moment. Indy also has the tie-breaker (for the moment) by virtue of their win @ Jax by 3 points. But that could change as they meet again this year.

Common remaining opponents / same venues:
Both host Houston and Tennessee.

Common remaining opponents / different venues:
Indy hosts NYG and Dal, and plays @ Wash and @ Clev.
Jax is @ NYG and @ Dal, and hosts Wash and Clev.

Differing opponents:
Indy has road games @ Philly, @ Denver and @ Tenn.
Jax hosts Pitt, and has road games @ Hou and @ Cin.

Head-to-head:
Jax plays @ Indy in Week 17.

Given all of that, the main difference is those differing opponents. And Jax ~appears~ to have it much easier.

And to top it off, if these two teams are tied after Week 16 (and Tenn is not in the picture), you could hedge with a ML bet on Indy in the final week when they meet head on.

So...would you bet Jacksonville @ 11/5? Keep in mind the tie-breaker situation, hedging possibilities, etc.

Thanks in advance for your input.

 

[Dizzayton]

I think titans have a shot, why not this division is soft. If Tenn can put it together they have a decent shot. I would favor JAX definitely. NO WAY INDY wins it, look for their record to drop over the next few weeks, i think Skins will beat them.

 

[Roger]

I really like the titans to bounce back from a rough start to make a serious run in this division...no doubt the jags will be the team to beat...Indy looked pitiful!

 

[TheShrimp]

Re: AFC South Champion - Bet analysis

Common remaining opponents / same venues:
Both host Houston and Tennessee.

***call it a wash

Common remaining opponents / different venues:
Indy hosts NYG and Dal, and plays @ Wash and @ Clev.
Jax is @ NYG and @ Dal, and hosts Wash and Clev.

***I think 3-1 for INDY and 2-2 for JAX are probably the most likely results of this. Put Indy 2 games up at this point.

Differing opponents:
Indy has road games @ Philly, @ Denver and @ Tenn.
Jax hosts Pitt, and has road games @ Hou and @ Cin.

***Indy 1-2. Jax 2-1. They're tied. For argument sake, put INDY at 0-3, JAX at 3-0 here. Jax is 1 game up going into...

Head-to-head:
Jax plays @ Indy in Week 17.

***Gotta give it to INDY. They're tied up with indy having the tie breaker.

Given all of that, the main difference is those differing opponents. And Jax ~appears~ to have it much easier.

And to top it off, if these two teams are tied after Week 16 (and Tenn is not in the picture), you could hedge with a ML bet on Indy in the final week when they meet head on.

***yes, if you want. Indy might be more than an 11/5 ML fave in such a matchup, though. Even 4 pt faves are usually -200. 5 pt faves are more like -225. 7 pt faves are around -300.

So...would you bet Jacksonville @ 11/5? Keep in mind the tie-breaker situation, hedging possibilities, etc.

***Of course, given all that I said, you're getting better than 2-1 here. Indy doesn't always look that good, but J-ville has their problems too. They're playing above expectations, but that doesn't mean they're playing great. I do think Tenn has a shot.

***Anyway, given all that I don't think 11/5 looks like a gift, but if you want to make the bet and follow it as the season progresses, I don't think it's too bad either. If you do make it, make it now because it will only get worse after this weekend.

 

[Blitz]

Differing opponents:
Indy has road games @ Philly, @ Denver and @ Tenn.
Jax hosts Pitt, and has road games @ Hou and @ Cin.

Big edge here for Jax... :shrug:

 

[3fingerstony]

Titans just aren't the team they were a couple years ago & don't have the depth to overcome the injuries that occur this time of year.
Indy isn't showing a lot of defensive improvement so far with Dungy in town, but he does seem to have had an affect on their offense, UNFORTUNATELY! (I had the OVER on Monday.)
ANyway, Jags & Colts should go down to Week 17. Depending on injuries from now until then, I'd like Jags. Dungy teams DO NOT win games that matter. Lack of emotion, imagination, or whatever you want to call it, & as you say, you can always 'hedge' with INDY when the time comes.
Good Luck