AFC West preview: Chargers clear fave to win division

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AFC West preview: Chargers clear fave to win division

One team ticked off its best defensive player by having the gall to draft someone at his position.

Another team fired a coaching legend and replaced him with a 32-year-old who has gotten everyone angry.

Yet another said good-bye to its angry Hall of Fame tight end.

And we haven?t even gotten to Al Davis yet.

Welcome to the AFC West, where turmoil and mediocrity are held in high esteem and a .500 record might get you into the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs

Projected win total: 6

Prediction: Under (-110)

All eyes will be on Matt Cassel, and it will probably be mid-season, or even next season, before the Chiefs know if they got a legit franchise quarterback or merely someone who overachieved with great receivers and a veteran offensive line last season in New England.

Some think Cassel may eventually become KC?s best QB since Len Dawson, but no one with that opinion paid much attention to last year?s offensive line. The Chiefs went defense first in the draft, so the offensive line will be pretty much patched together again, and that means Cassel will go down early, often and hard. Maybe new coach Todd Haley can resurrect the movable pocket offense that Hank Stram implemented when he had Dawson in the 1960s.

This is actually sets up pretty well for Haley, who greased the Cardinals? powerful offense last year. The Chiefs played a ton of rookies last season, as evidenced by their 2-14 record, and those guys should be somewhat improved even absent star tight end Tony Gonzalez (traded to Atlanta). Perpetually angry Larry Johnson somehow managed 4.5 yards a carry last season between accusations of assaulting women at Kansas City nightspots. Who knew KC even had nightspots?

Surprising stat: The Chiefs averaged more than 21 points a game after Tyler Thigpen took over at quarterback in Week 8. In games Thigpen didn?t start, KC averaged 10 points a game.

Denver Broncos

Projected win total: 7

Prediction: Under (-120)

Josh McDaniels, replacing Mike Shanahan, must feel like a guy who opens a bar on a beach in Indonesia the day before the tsunami hits.

He gets a dream job and starts trying to improve the team, then his franchise quarterback goes diva on him and shoots his way out of town. Not to be undone, his best receiver, Brandon Marshall, decides he too wants to be part of the team?s massive roster overhaul and demands both a trade and more money, though not in that order.

Welcome to Mile High, Josh. Give the Broncos credit, though. The team?s owner, Pat Bowlen, has stood behind the new coach as one whack-job player after another bellies up to the bar and makes demands.

The offense, led by incoming QB Kyle Orton, better be decent, because the defense will have its share of problems this season as it moves to a 3-4. Champ Bailey is still lights-out at one corner, but the team raised some eyebrows when it cut CB Dre Bly in a salary dump.

Denver better get things in order quickly ? the Broncos open with three turkeys (Cincinnati, Cleveland and Oakland) ? before embarking on one of the most difficult five-game stretches in NFL history (Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore and Pittsburgh).

Surprising stat: In the season-crushing 30-23 December loss to Buffalo at home, the Bronco defense gave up scores on five straight Bills possessions.

Oakland Raiders

Projected win total: 6

Prediction: Over (-120)

It?s easy to make fun of Al Davis and the Oakland Raiders. So let?s do it.
Any team that finds a way to lose 72 games in a six-year period has to have issues beyond a micro-managing owner who may or may not think that Daryle Lamonica is still the starting quarterback.

The Raiders are coming off a five-win 2008 season, which is the most games that they have won since 2002. Their top draft choice, wideout Darrius Heyward-Bey, is already dealing with hamstring issues, starting QB JaMarcus Russell has looked unproductive (and a few pounds overweight) in OTAs and the top free agent signing (LB Greg Ellis, from Dallas) brings tired legs and a reputation for whining.

What else is new?

The first priority for coach Tom Cable is to shoot some adrenaline into a passing game that was easily the worst (148 yards per game) in the NFL last season. Running back Darren McFadden looks like he?s not far from being an impact player, but, for some reason, Cable never warmed up to the kid.

On the plus side, the defense was half-decent last season and should be steady, especially against struggling offenses in Kansas City and Denver. Washington and Cincinnati are also on the schedule.

Surprising stat: Over players won only three times on Oakland games last season and just once in the first 14 games. (There were two pushes.)

San Diego Chargers

Projected win total: 9.5

Prediction: Over (-150)

The problem with the Chargers is that these guys don?t handle adversity too well. They had to take belt buckles away from LaDainian Tomlinson after a tough playoff loss in New England a few years back and All-Pro Shawne Merriman went over the edge when the team used its first-round pick to take an edge pass rusher (Larry English).

These guys need to chill and get down to football, which they?re actually pretty good at.

SD?s defense took three months to recover from the loss of Merriman and the Ed Hochili Week 2 fiasco. But with a fresh start and three dysfunctional division opponents, the Chargers should have little trouble this season, and should cover 9.5 wins before their annual playoff flameout. Don?t forget that these guys made the playoffs (and even beat Indianapolis) last season with a non-existent pass defense.

Philip Rivers has a top-five arm if not a top-five brain, and that?s more than enough to carry the Chargers into the playoffs until the real bullets start flying.

Surprising stat: Nate Kaeding connected on 27 of 32 field goal tries last season and has made more than 80 percent of his attempts for five straight years.

 

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NFL divisional preview: Will the Cards soar again?

NFL divisional preview: Will the Cards soar again?

NFL divisional preview: Will the Cards soar again?

For a division that produced the conference champion, there was a lot of miserable football played by the NFC West last season.

Minus the 12 games that Arizona, San Francisco, St. Louis and Seattle played among each other, the West was a combined 10-30.

People who love to attend fires and gawk at the site of train wrecks were focused on Detroit?s run at a perfect 0-16 season and were able to avoid looking at the carnage taking place in Seattle and St. Louis.

It wasn?t pretty.

The Cardinals were left standing when their three division rivals each took a step back, then got hot in the playoffs and nearly stole the Super Bowl.

Let?s take a peek at how the division looks heading into September:

St. Louis Rams

Projected win total: 5

Prediction: Over

If nothing else, new coach Steve Spagnuolo will have the defense on its toes rather than sitting back on its heels like the 3-13 team did in 2007 and last year?s 2-14 group did.

Spagnuolo had great success pressuring opposing quarterbacks when he was the defensive coordinator for the Giants and will likely try to put similar heat on QBs this season.

There is concern in St. Louis that Spagnuolo will overplay his hand in his first year, pressuring from everywhere to cover up an overall weak defense and allowing the secondary to be picked apart in the process.

The Rams worked hard to get the overall No. 2 draft pick right and with OT Jason Smith of Baylor they don?t appear to have screwed it up. Smith, replacing All-Pro Orlando Pace, will help protect whatever is left of Marc Bulger?s career and hopefully open enough holes for Steven Jackson to remain one of the league top running backs for at least a few more years.

Jackson?s durability might start to become a factor, as he?s missed 25 percent (eight) of the team?s games over the past two seasons.

The Rams haven?t had a winning season since going 12-4 in 2003 and Spagnuolo hasn?t even begun to firm up the depth chart. The waiver wire will be scrutinized right up until opening day, but it won?t be just the players coming and going. The team is up for sale, and while very unlikely, it hasn?t been possible to completely beat back rumors of a move to Los Angeles.

Stat you should know: St. Louis quarterbacks have been sacked 97 times over the past two seasons.

San Francisco 49ers

Projected win total: 7.5

Prediction: Under

The entire city seems split on former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith and whether he can ever be anything more than an average NFL quarterback. Actually, after stumbling for three years Smith?s ineffectiveness and injuries, the 49ers might even accept average at this point.

But you can?t blame Smith ? out for all of 2008 after shoulder surgery -- entirely for the QB mess.

There have been a slew of coaching changes in the Bay Area since Smith arrived. Throw in an average O-line and a ho-hum group of receivers, and you get a team that was fortunate to get within a sniff (7-9) of .500 last season.

Smith and Shaun Hill will probably go to the third exhibition game before one wins (or loses) the starting job. Hill actually earned some cred last year by leading the team to wins in the final two games, and finished with a higher QB rating than Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Jay Cutler and Ben Roethlisberger.

The Niners actually have a decent defense, which automatically gives them an advantage in a division that gave up more points than any other in the NFL last season. Losing Walt Harris for the season (knee) was quickly remedied by the signing of Dre? Bly, who was a Denver salary cap dump.

Stat you should know: The Niners finished over .500 (5-4) after Mike Singletary took over as head coach.

Seattle Seahawks

Projected win total: 7.5

Prediction: over

Four straight division titles, a Super Bowl berth and then there was the 2008 fiasco. The Seahawks at least have a healthier Matt Hasselbeck as they try to dig out from the rubble of last season?s 4-12 fiasco. Hasselbeck was shelved early last season after suffering injuries from his head to his leg.

Working against Hasselbeck and new coach Jim Mora is the fact that the Seahawk roster is getting long in the tooth and needs replenishing. The team drafted help at linebacker, taking Aaron Curry to help shore up a defense that gave up way too many yards a game (378, ranking 30th).

Things started to go south last season when the Giants lifted their legs on the Seahawks and beat Seattle by 38 in Week 5. That launched a 1-8 stretch and basically called a halt to competitive pro football in the Pacific Northwest. But the first six games this coming season are manageable, especially if the defense steps up even a bit and the wide receivers stay healthy. A functional Deion Branch paired with newcomer T.J. Houshmanzdadeh represents an upgrade over the 2008 wideouts.

Stat you should know: The Seahawks were the only team in the NFL to give up more than 4,000 passing yards last season.

Arizona Cardinals

Projected win total: 9

Prediction: over

In the NBA and NHL, mediocre teams that make the playoffs are courteous enough to bow out early and leave the stage to the stars.

In the NFL average teams aren?t supposed to even make the playoffs, let alone get to the Super Bowl and almost win.

But the door looks wide hope again for Arizona in a division which doesn?t appear to have gotten appreciably better.

Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald are back and Anquan Boldin will cave in and return now that he?s dumped agent Drew Rosenhaus. With Edgerrin James out of the picture, ?Zona spent its first-round draft choice on Ohio State RB Chris Wells.

The Cardinals have to realize that the chances of drawing an inside straight again are pretty slim, and that any team that gives up close to four touchdowns a game is not likely to be playing many games in January. But with the Niners, Seahawks and Rams as competition, the division winner will most likely reside in the desert again, assuming nothing debilitating happens to Kurt Warner, who turns 39 next week.

Stat you should know: The Cardinals gave up more points than all but four teams and covered the over more times (11) than any other team in the league last season.

 

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AFC East Preview

AFC East Preview

AFC East Preview

Q: How wacky of a season was it in the AFC East Division last year?

A: A one-win team (Miami) the previous year won the division while another team (New England) managed 11-wins, yet saw its five-year playoff skein snapped.

Such is life in the AFC East, where Bill Parcells? presence paid huge dividends for the Dolphins while Tom Brady?s injury left a lasting impression that Patriots? fans would soon like to forget.

The story didn?t end there. Brett Favre came and went as the Jets crashed and burned, while the Bills played in triplicate for the third straight season.

As a result numerous changes occurred during the off-season landscape inside this tumultuous division.

Here is my take of teams in the AFC EAST DIVISION for the 2009 season. Coming up next: the AFC NORTH DIVISION. Enjoy?

AFC EAST

BUFFALO
Team Theme ? 7 UP
A third-straight 7-9 season (a 2-8 finish washed out a promising 5-1 start) under Dick Jauron left the Bills more frustrated than ever last year and looking for a ray of sunshine. Jauron hopes last year?s solid offensive and defensive improvement will help move his team into the winner?s circle in 2009. Jauron needs to pay more attention to business within the division, where he was egged last year. Interestingly, Buffalo will tackle only three foes that sported losing records last season while facing the league?s sixth toughest schedule his year. The addition of WR Terrell Owens will either make or break this team. TO?s skills may be diminishing but he is a major home-run target for QB Trent Edwards. With RB Marshawn Lynch filling out the backfield, the Bills possess an offense that will test even the best of the NFL defenses. Get ready for the TO show.
PLAY ON: at New England (9/13)



MIAMI
Team Theme ? MIAMI NICE
What sort of price does a 1-15 team pay for selling out its soul in return for an 11-5 playoff squad? Plenty. Ask the Miami Dolphins. For openers, the Fins will take on the toughest schedule in the NFL in 2009. Included are games against the always-tough AFC and NFC South divisions plus a season finale against the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. Last year Miami faced a total of four teams that had winning records the previous season. This year that total ratchets to ten. In fact, only two opponents on this year?s slate had losing records in 2008. In addition, Miami must overcome the stigma of being the second team in NFL history to record a 10-game improvement from one season to the next. Cleveland was anointed the rags-to-riches team in 2008 and then fell flat on their face. With seven wins by seven or less points last season, look for Miami to complete the sale this year.
PLAY AGAINST: as home favorites vs. NY Jets (10/12) - *KEY

NEW ENGLAND
Team Theme ? WEIGHT AND SEE
After assessing the NFL draft and a busy season of free agent acquisitions, the team that improved the most from last season to this has to be the Patriots. Not because of the draft or free agent signings, but because of the return of Tom Brady. If you feel otherwise, take a look a New England?s numbers last season. They were good by most standards, but not good enough to extend a five-year streak of making the playoffs. Some say missing out on the post-season was a consequence of the ?Super Bowl Loser? jinx. We say rubbish. Consider this: last year the Pats laid an average 4.5 points per contest. In 2007 they laid an average 13.5 points. That?s a loss of nine points per game net difference, or the kind of weight most of us would be thrilled to shed. With only one back-to-back road trip, the Pats will be lying in wait for a lot of teams this year.
PLAY ON: vs. NY Jets (9/20) - *KEY if Jets off win

NY JETS
Team Theme ? CRASH LANDING
If we were air traffic controllers reading flight patterns, we?d say there is a rocky voyage in store for the Jets in 2009. We base that prediction on New York?s win-loss index in which every winning season has been immediately followed by a losing effort since 2003. Noting the flawed blueprint, Eric Mangini was dispatched in favor of Rex Ryan, DC with the upstart Ravens last season. Ryan?s infatuation with rookie QB Joe Flacco was evident when the Jets traded up in the draft to select QB Mark Sanchez with the fifth pick. New York is hoping the same rookie-coach, rookie-quarterback combination that was a hit with Atlanta and Baltimore last year is more of an NFL trend than an aberration. We feel it was more the latter than the former. With Brett no longer piloting the Jet, and Mangini making new brownies in Cleveland, the fasten seat belt sign is lit.
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Carolina (11/29)

 

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NFC South preview: Football's best division?

NFC South preview: Football's best division?

NFC South preview: Football's best division?

You can make a cogent case for the NFC South being the best overall division in the NFL.

After two somewhat down years, the South produced three winning teams, two wild-card playoff teams, and an overall record of 40-24 that was better than any of the other seven divisions last season. And New Orleans, the division bottom-feeder at 8-8, was only four possessions away from a 12-4 record.

The South has the league?s most prolific quarterback (Drew Brees), the best young quarterback (Matt Ryan) and a Top-5 space shot (Jeremy Shockey). The coaching is excellent if anonymous and three of the four teams have the capability of making a Cardinal-style run deep into the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers


Projected win total: 6.5 (beted.com)
Prediction: Under (-110)

If there?s one potential toxic waste dump in the division, it?s here. The Bucs have made the decision to start over. Jon Gruden was let go after last season?s four-loss December collapse, including a home to loss Oakland in which the Bucs gave up 17 points in the final period.




NFC West preview

Can the Arizona Cardinals hold their claim to the NFC West?

AFC West preview

Is the AFC West the San Diego Chargers' division to lose?

Five defenses to watch

These NFL teams are going through defensive transitions.

New coach Raheem Lewis cleaned out a slew of veterans, including linebackers Derrick Brooks and Cato June, and RB Warrick Dunn. Quarterback Jeff Garcia was also bid adieu. That set off yet another wild scramble for the starting job, and Luke McCown, Josh Freeman, Josh Johnson and Byron Leftwich are battling it out.

Lewis figures it will take a few years to straighten things out and that?s probably as much time as he has. There aren?t many playmakers on this team and that probably explains why there has been talk that the Bucs are considering biting the bullet and making a run at WR Plaxico Burress.

There are even rumors that Michael Vick might be a decent fit into an offense that scored the fewest points in the division last season and is the odds-on favorite to do that again. Burress and Vick would fit right in on a team that signed Kellen Winslow Jr. in the offseason.

Surprising stat: Last season?s six playoff teams, plus 11-5 New England, gave up more yards per game than Tampa Bay did (306).

Carolina Panthers

Projected win total: 8.5 (beted.com)
Prediction: Over (+100)

John Fox is a smart guy and the Panthers are lucky to have him as head coach. But will someone please explain why a team that was mercilessly running the ball down the throats of every opponent on the schedule does a 180 in the playoffs and decides to let erratic Jake Delhomme determine whether or not you play for the conference championship the following week? Instead of Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams ramming the ball at a shaky Arizona defense 30 times, Delhomme spit the bit with five interceptions and a lost fumble.

So what?s in store for Carolina after that fiasco? Probably not 12-4 again, but the Panthers have enough talent to contend for a playoff spot. They?ll definitely run the ball behind Stewart (recovering from a foot injury) and Williams, but a playoff spot could ride on whether the Panthers improve defensively.

Fox used his first three draft picks on defenders (DE Everette Brown, CB Sherrod Martin and DT Corey Irvin), and a big weight was lifted when Julius Peppers signed an offer sheet to return this season.

New defensive coordinator Ron Meeks, coming over from Indianapolis, will have to get things in order quickly. The Panthers open at home against Philadelphia, then travel to Atlanta and Dallas, beginning a stretch in which they play five of seven games on the road.

Surprising stat: In the playoff loss to Arizona, the Panthers had the ball only 20 of 60 minutes, and Jake Delhomme?s first-half quarterback rating was 13.9.

Atlanta Falcons

Projected win total: 8.5 (beted.com)
Prediction: Over (-110)

Who are you and what have you done with the Atlanta Falcons? These guys are no longer bottom feeders. There is talent on offense (Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez) and defense (John Abraham, Mike Peterson). A team stained by Michael Vick was expected to start yet another rebuilding process, yet now sits among the NFL?s best.

One need after another has been met. Turner gained 1,699 yards last season and made the Falcons the second-best team on the ground. That opened things up for rookie QB Matt Ryan, who tossed for 3,440 yards (only 11 interceptions) and an 87.7 rating. The terrific offense in turn helped buy some time for management to shore up what was a mediocre defense.

Ryan threw only 30 passes to tight ends last season, but that will change this season as Gonzalez comes on board. The future Hall of Famer will add yet another weapon to the offense.

The defense never hit highway speed in 2008, even against some mediocre offenses. Defensive end John Abraham is solid, but at 31 is teeing up on the back nine. The Falcons need a breakout year from 2007 top draft choice Jamaal Anderson. Veteran Mike Peterson comes over from Jacksonville, where he was losing playing time.

Surprising stat: The Falcons were 1-5 over/under in games played on grass last season.

New Orleans Saints

Projected win total: 9 (beted.com)
Prediction: Over (-110)

The Saints need to get better ? a lot better. Any team that leads the NFL in scoring and finishes 8-8 and in last place in the division has defensive troubles everywhere. With New Orleans, it starts in the secondary. The Saints picked off only 13 passes in 2008 and were one of only four teams without a defensive touchdown, leading to the signing of standout safety Darren Sharper. Sharper will be one of several new faces in the defensive backfield. Anthony Hargrove was signed to add some juice to the defensive line.

The only offensive concern coach Sean Payton has is determining the whereabouts of TE Jeremy Shockey. The Saints rolled the dice on Shockey last year, forfeiting second and fifth-round draft choices. Shockey responded by underachieving amid a series of injuries. He rehabbed in his usual spot ? the pool at the Hard Rock Casino in Las Vegas ? while the rest of the team was going through OTAs, and it was hardly his fault if he got dehydrated and hospitalized.

Despite Shockey?s shenanigans, QB Drew Brees should again put up huge numbers. Reggie Bush may not be the player everyone figured on coming out of college, but he?s a Grade-A NFL player. The Saints should win nine, could win 10 or 11, and should easily leapfrog past Tampa Bay and into contention in the South.

Surprising stat: Five of New Orleans?s eight losses last season were by a total of 15 points.

 

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gil brandt, former cowboy executive & a sharp guy picks the raider's as a dark horse to win the west....

 

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gil brandt, former cowboy executive & a sharp guy picks the raider's as a dark horse to win the west....

WOW ! :00hour

 

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AFC South preview: Division no longer the Colts to lose

AFC South preview: Division no longer the Colts to lose

AFC South preview: Division no longer the Colts to lose

The door may be opening just a crack in the AFC South.

Until last year the Colts had pretty much had their way for the previous six seasons. Tennessee?s 10-0 start and 13-3 record relegated Indianapolis to wild-card status and both teams? abrupt first-round playoff exits might have provided a harbinger of things to come in 2009.

The Colts and Titans combined for 25 victories last season, the most prolific 1-2 punch in any division if the NFL. Similar success for Indy and Tennessee are extremely unlikely this season.

Houston (8-8) has started knocking louder on the door and appears to have the talent to make a run at a wild card spot. Jacksonville is dumping veterans and starting over.

Tennessee Titans

Projected win total: 9 (beted.com)
Prediction: Under (+110)

From 13 wins last season to a projected nine is a severe drop, even if the +110 on the under cushions the fall. But nothing seems to have gone right for this team since it clinched the best-overall record. A shutout loss to Indianapolis in Week 17 was followed two weeks later by a playoff-elimination loss to Baltimore, which was followed by the loss of defensive beast Albert Haynesworth, which was followed a few months later by the shocking death of former quarterback Steve McNair.

Jeff Fisher needs to reverse the negative momentum, and it won?t be easy. The defense dominated so many games last year that quarterback Kerry Collins had to just not lose games, and the Titans ran off 10 straight wins to start the season. Tennessee will again look to pound the ball in its risk-averse offense, with Chris Johnson getting 60 to 65 percent of the carries. LenDale White, who ate himself out of the starting job last season, supposedly is in shape and motivated this season.

The defense which held teams to less than 15 points a game last season has some age issues. Kyle Vanden Bosch and Jevon Kearse both are on the bad side of 30, as is LB Keith Bullock. Status quo play from those three at those ages would be too much to ask for.

Surprising stat: Kerry Collins threw only seven interceptions last season. In the other three years in which he was a starter (2003 with the Giants and 2004 and ?05 with Oakland), he had a combined total of 54 interceptions.

Indianapolis Colts

Projected win total: 10 (beted.com)
Prediction: 10

First off, don?t be concerned about Peyton Manning. It took him a while to recover from knee surgery, but the numbers he put up in the final nine games (16 TDs, 3 INTs) speak for themselves. Despite a new coach, Manning will be Manning. But Indy needs to do some patching.

Joseph Addai?s numbers have diminished for two seasons and the Colts are so concerned they spent a first-round pick on RB Donald Brown. The O-line spent so much time protecting Manning that it forgot how to run-block. Everything came to a head in the playoff loss to San Diego, when Manning threw for 300 yards but Indy could run the ball for only 65 (to SD?s 167) and scored only 17 points.

Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney get after the quarterback pretty well, but Indy historically hasn?t had much size in its defensive line. The Colts hope to repair that pothole with the drafting of DTs Fila Moala and Terrance Taylor. The linebackers and defensive backfield kept Indy in game after game last season, and will probably have to do it again this season. The special teams play might have been the worst in the NFL last season, and even mediocre in 2009 will be an upgrade.

Surprising stat: The Colts had a much different over/under record on grass (5-2) than on artificial turf (3-6) last season.

Houston Texans

Projected win total: 8.5 (beted.com)
Prediction: Over (+120)

Like U.S. soccer, the Texans seem to always be about the future. But that may be about to end, assuming things break right and they can step things up a notch or two defensively.

Mario Williams is the real deal at one DE spot, and run-stopping free agent signing Antonio Smith should make the D-line more than adequate. DeMeco Ryans could be the most underrated linebacker in the NFL, but the secondary has to get better. Cato June was added in the offseason, and will get rotation time if he doesn?t enough energy left to start.

Offensively, there are more than enough playmakers. Assuming Matt Schaub stays healthy (it?s been an issue), he?s easily the second-best QB in the division and may be Top 5 in the AFC. Schaub threw for 3,043 yards last season, about half of them to top-flight WR Andre Johnson. Wideout Kevin Walter gets lots of 1-on-1 coverage on the other side, and Steve Slaton (1,282 yards rushing, 377 receiving and 10 TDs) has come out of nowhere and emerged as an elite back.

The schedule sets up nicely for the Texans. Besides the same teams that all AFC South teams play, Houston has matchups with Oakland and Cincinnati.

Surprising stats: The Texans covered the spread in six of their final seven games last season. Also, in every game last season the over number was 40 or above.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected win total: 8 (beted.com)
Prediction: Under (+100)

If you?re thinking about taking this over, can you explain how a team that wins five games in 2008, then lets go some of its best players and is clearly rebuilding, gets to nine wins playing in a division that includes Indianapolis and Tennessee?

Jack Del Rio is a terrific coach and has done a great job in a tough division, but things are happening in Jacksonville, and not a lot of them are good.

Two offensive linchpins ? QB David Garrard and RB Maurice Jones-Drew ? both slipped a bit in 2008 from the previous year as they struggled behind a poor offensive line. Garrard had 15 TDs and 13 INTs, but spent a lot of time on his back (42 sacks). Jones-Drew?s average per carry dropped from 4.6 to 4.2.

Desperate for thrust up front, the Jags signed veteran Tra Thomas from the Eagles and spent two high draft picks on the O-line. They also hope incoming WR Torry Holt can stretch opposing defenses.

The defense was average last season and there haven?t been any major upgrades. The only significant development has been Del Rio?s calling out his best defender, John Henderson, for missing OTA time.

There were reports that veterans tuned out Del Rio last season, and the team has responded by dumping a couple of popular players, RB Fred Taylor and LB Mike Peterson.

On top of everything, the fan base appears demoralized and there are reports that season ticket sales are so small that home games will be blacked out.

Surprising stat: Jacksonville lost six of its last seven last season. In those losses the Jags lost by an average of 12 points, and they only once finished within seven points of their opponent.

 

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AFC North Preview

AFC North Preview

AFC North Preview

Often looked upon as a mediocre division, the frigid AFC North is home to three of the last eight Super Bowl winners.

It?s also where residing teams are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS on the conference playoff road outside the North since the division realignment in 2002.

Check out conditions in the AFC North before dipping your toes in the water this season. You might be surprised at what you find.

A new coach, a defending Super Bowl champion, and a Pro Bowl quarterback on the mend add plenty of intrigue to an already intriguing division.

Here is my take of teams in the AFC NORTH DIVISION for 2009.

BALTIMORE
Team Theme ? SOFT SHELL CRABS
Another first-year coach, in tandem with another rookie QB, took his team directly to the playoffs last year when John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco piloted the Ravens to an 8-win increase to tie the Falcons for most improved honors in the league. We believe Baltimore, like Atlanta, will take a step back in 2009, if not on the scoreboard, then in the ATS wars. You simply don?t pick up 19 net-pointspread wins from one season to the next without paying the price. Because of that sudden success, the Ravens will be favored more often this year than last and that is almost always a tough-shell to crack for teams that go from ?loser-to-winner? in one season. A softer, aging defense may pay the price behind new defensive coordinator Greg Mattison, the DC with the Florida Gators last season. Look for the Sophomore Jinx to hit Crabtown in 2009.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Green Bay (12/7)





CINCINNATI
Team Theme ? OCHO STINKO
It?s the TO?s and the Ocho?s of the professional football world that drag the integrity of the NFL game to the street level of pimps gone bad. If you disagree, check the win-lost record of the saps that sign their paycheck and report back. Despite the observation, the Bengals hope to be a team on the rise in 2009. Pro Bowl QB Carson Palmer is back and that, in itself, is big news for Cincinnati. It?s the Miami Herald?s Armando Salguero?s contention that Palmer carried the Bengals when he was healthy and the defense was lousy. This year, the defense has improved and, as a result, there is a new attitude on the team. ?Definitely, by far, it?s been the best off-season program since I?ve been here. Everyone (other than Ocho Cinco) has been here to work and that has been great for us,? says Palmer. We?re not casting aspersions. You draw the parallel.
PLAY ON: vs. Detroit (12/6)

CLEVELAND
Team Theme ? PUNCH DRUNK
The Browns were the classic case of a rags-to-riches team last season and they paid the price. Off a champagne-high in 2007, the NFL rewarded the high-scoring Kardiac Kids last year by featuring them in five nationally televised contests. Reality settled in and Romeo Crennel and his 24-40 record was shipped out. As a result, Eric Mangini, former New York Jets coach and Cleveland Browns ball boy, returns home to clean up the mess. Mangini is another in a long line of Bill Belichick students and appears to be a good fit for a program looking to regain its identity. He will need to address an offense that lost its punch and a defense that has become a punching bag. Not a good combination, to say the least. The Leatherheads will be bobbing and weaving until December, when they play half of their home games of the season from that point forward. Duck!
PLAY ON: as a dog vs. San Diego (12/6)

PITTSBURGH
Team Theme - SIXBURGH
Mike Tomlin gets it. Like his predecessor, Bill Cowher, Tomlin knows both the importance or playing tough defense (The Steeler "D" has allowed just 256 YPG under Tomlin) and the significance of winning division games (Pittsburgh is 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS vs division foes the last two years). Those numbers are the main reason why the Black-and-Gold picked up its sixth Super Bowl title last year despite facing the most difficult schedule in the league. Surprisingly, despite their crowning moment last year, the Steelers will take on the fourth-softest schedule in 2009. A minor cause of concern is a declining offense, one that has slipped each season behind Tomlin. On a larger scale, the weight of being a defending Super Bowl champion can be heavy. Mixed with Pitt?s 7-14 ATS mark against teams that currently reside in the NFC North division, we don?t for see a 7th heaven of the Steelers this year.
PLAY ON: as favorites vs. Chicago (9/20)

 

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AFC South Preview

AFC South Preview

AFC South Preview


Thought by many to be the toughest division in the NFL, the AFC South has fielded only two teams that have suffered a losing record the last three years.

As a result these teams are 23-10 SU and 24-9 ATS as non-division dogs of less than six points in that span, including 7-0 SU and ATS last season.

Will the South rise again in 2009? Stay tuned.

Here is my take of teams in the AFC SOUTH DIVISION for 2009.

AFC SOUTH

HOUSTON
Team Theme ? KNOCK, KNOCK
It's been seven years without a winning season for the Houston Texans. So, who's counting? The fans of the franchise have not panicked - not since the hiring of Gary Kubiak in 2006. That?s because Kubiak has the Texans knocking on the door with 8-8 seasons each of the last two years. Confidence comes from knowing the offense has improved each and every year under Kubiak?s command. The Cowpokes are 15-6 SU and 17-4 ATS under Kubiak in games in which they?ve managed to score 23 or more points. Heck, Houston even managed to win three games in a row (and then four) for the first time in franchise history last season. If there has been a knock on the Texan's play under Coach ?K?, it's been their lack of success within the division. Long the doormat of the AFC South, Houston has only six wins in its last 18 division games but, then again, who's counting?
PLAY ON: as a home dog vs. Tennessee (11/23)





INDIANAPOLIS
Team Theme ? ALL IN THE FAMILY
Only one team in NFL history can lay claim to the fact they have won a dozen or more games six years in a row. In addition, only one team in the league has made an appearance in the playoffs each of the last seven years. We?re speaking, of course, about Indianapolis. For a team that enjoyed all that success, its off-season was filled with transition. Gone is future Hall of Fame head coach Tony Dungy, his offensive and defensive coordinators, and the offensive line coach. To compensate for the losses, the team promoted from within the organization, naming Dungy's assistant, Jim Caldwell the new boss, while assigning job duties to other former assistants. If the Colts are going to extend the numbers noted above they will need to shore up the weakest rushing offense in the league. It?s a good thing this is still Peyton?s place.
PLAY ON: vs. Denver (12/13)

JACKSONVILLE
Team Theme ?JACK IN THE BOX
So much for being labeled a ?wise guy? team last year. Jacksonville?s fall from grace resulted in a seven-game decline from 2007 to 2008. After the dust finally settled, the Jaguars logged SU losses as favorites on six different occasions, the most in the NFL last season. To add insult to injury, Jacksonville failed to land a single player on the Pro Bowl team for the first time since its inaugural year in 1995. The main culprit was cluster injuries to the offensive line, an issue that was addressed during the off-season. This much we know? head coach Jack Del Rio does not take to losing very well. Only twice did he fail to produce a winning record as a head coach in the NFL. He followed both of those losing years with winning efforts going 21-13 SU and 22-12 ATS, including an impressive 17-5 SU and ATS against non-division foes. One might be ?wise? to follow that trend this year.
PLAY ON: as a road dog vs. Houston (9/27)

TENNESSEE
Team Theme ? OPEN WIDE
There are losses and then there are big losses. The loss of Pro Bowl DT Albert Haynesworth is a mighty big loss for the Titans. As astutely pointed out by Matty B. in this year?s NFL preview on these pages, Tennessee was 28-11 with the big man in the lineup and only 3-7 without him. Couple Haynesworth?s departure with the loss of DC Jim Schwartz to the Detroit Lions and we?re talking about some big holes to fill. The other cause for concern is relying on the creaky arm of Kerry Collins for a second-straight season. Our best guess is Vince Young will likely resurface before Collins digests any more liquid remedy from the fountain of youth. It?s tough fading one of our favorite coaches in the NFL, but unless Jeff Fisher can fill a big hollow space on defense, we?re not interested in drilling for winners until we?re comfortable the cavity has been filled.
PLAY AGAINST: at Jacksonville (10/4)

 

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NFC North predictions

NFC North predictions

NFC North predictions

Timing is everything.

Minnesota and Chicago entered the final week of last season at 9-6, each needing a win to get into the playoffs. The Bears ran up against a motivated Houston team, and lost; the Vikings faced a bored Giants club that was resting some starters, and won.

The result: Minnesota in, Chicago out. That simple.

Fast forward to 2009, and it looks like a three-horse race in a division that is unlikely to provide a wild-card entry, giving every one of the 12 division games playoff significance.

Minnesota Vikings

Projected win total: 8.5

Prediction: Under (with Favre) Over (without Favre)

Ok, Brett. We love you. You?re great. No one was ever better. You the man. We?ll name first-born sons after you.

Now will you go away?

Do you really think things would have been different with Favre, and not Tavaris Jackson, under center in that playoff game against the Eagles last January? Then you need to review tapes of the final five games that the Jets played in 2008, or the Packers? final (playoff) game in 2007.

Will Favre be happy handing off to Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor 30 times, and completing 8 to 10 passes in a 14-10 victory?

Uh, no.

Besides Favre, much of the Vikings off-field drama has centered on the four-game suspensions for defensive linemen Pat Williams and Kevin Williams. They?re fighting the suspensions in court (Roger Goodell must love that). The two D-tackles won?t be suspended anytime soon thanks to a resent ruling from Judge Gary Larson.

Rookie wideout Percy Harvin is off to a great start. In February Harvin tested positive for marijuana at the scouting combine, then followed that up by missing the league rookie symposium and Vikings rookie camp due to illness. He should fit right in well with the Vikes.

Surprising stat: Despite Minny's struggle passing the ball, the club still completed 12 plays of 40 yards or more through the air, good for fourth best in the league.

Chicago Bears

Projected win total: 8.5

Prediction: Over

Poor Jay Cutler. He shoots his way out of Denver, is treated like a pharaoh as he struts into Chicago, and is still only the No. 2 diva in a division, behind Favre.

But Cutler has excited the masses in Chicago, who look at the Bears roster that has halfway decent talent and an NFC North division that is eminently winnable.

Forget that Cutler was the architect of that monumental collapse that cost the Broncos a playoff spot last season, or that he had his fingers crossed behind his back when he said that no, he actually didn?t ask to be traded. None of that matters to Bears fans, who envision Cutler firing passes all over Soldier Field.

Cutler?s receivers (Greg Olsen, Devin Hester, Earl Bennett) could be the worst group in the entire league. Any success Cutler has throwing should make things easier for running back Matt Forte, who stayed healthy all last season and finished seventh in the league in rushing.

Defensively, the Bears have issues. Tommie Harris is a stud tackle, but could use some help on a D-Line that needs to get to the quarterback more. Brian Urlacher may not be at 100 percent after neck surgery and Lance Briggs may be the best LB on the team.

Problems accelerate away from the line of scrimmage, though, and lots of eyes will be on the secondary. Only San Diego and Seattle gave up more passing yards last season.

Surprising stat: Three times last season Matt Forte rushed for more than 100 yards in a game. All were on artificial turf (Indianapolis, Detroit and St. Louis).

Green Bay Packers

Projected win total: 8.5

Prediction: Under

When your team has enough offensive juice to put up 419 points in a season and still doesn?t get a sniff of the playoffs, even Bud Selig could tell you where the fault lies.

To cure its defensive problems the Packers hired Dom Capers away from the Patriots. Capers plans to move the Pack to a 3-4 defense, using first-round draft choices on DT B.J. Raji and LB Clay Matthews. The 3-4 will also enable LB A.J. Hawk to run wilder and make plays.

How fast GB?s young defense can make the adjustment will probably determine whether or not the Pack can get to 9-7 or 10-6 and into the upper echelon of the North.

Assuming halfway decent health, Aaron Rogers can be plugged in at QB for the next decade. Rogers was easily the best QB in the division last season, and his numbers (4,308 yards, 28 TDs, 13 INTs and 63 percent completion average) pretty much were what GB got out of Favre in 2007, without the drama.

The under is the play here only under the assumption that it will take time to adjust to the new defensive formation.

Surprising stat: The Packers were 3-7 ATS in non-NFC North games last season.

Detroit Lions

Projected win total: 4.5

Prediction: Under

It all starts (and perhaps ends) with protecting the quarterback, be it Daunte Culpepper or Matthew Stafford.

If new coach Jim Schwartz likes what he sees from the offensive line halfway through the exhibition season, chances seem good that the Lions will see what they have in Stafford. If not, Culpepper draws the short straw and will have the opportunity to get ripped to shreds.

Assuming Stafford moves right in, the Lions will probably shrink the playbook and keep it basic until the game starts to slow down, in much the same way the Steelers did when Ben Roethlisberger was a rookie.

Lions fans fantasizing about a vertical offense centered around Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson will have to wait until the line and the running game get sorted.

The Lions have made a few moves to improve a defense that has progressively given up more points in each of the last four years, maxing out at 517 (33-plus per game) last season.

Linebackers Larry Foote and Julian Peterson, plus cornerback Philip Buchanan, are newcomers and will hopefully make the Lions D strong enough so thousands will not vomit their turkey dinners on Thanksgiving afternoon.

Surprising stat: The Lions won all of their exhibition games last season.

 

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AFC West Preview

AFC West Preview

AFC West Preview

Three new coaches went camping for the first time with teams in the new-look AFC WEST DIVISION this summer. Not surprisingly, none of who are expected to produce winning seasons in 2009. Welcome to the mild, mild West.

By deduction, that leaves San Diego as the team to beat in the AFC West this season. All Norv Turner needs to do is keep his team alive and in contention to December, where the Chargers are riding a 14 game win streak the final month of the season.

Can the Broncos bounce back after last year?s fatal collapse? Will the Chiefs finally find their way to the warpath? Are the Raiders finally ready to rumble?

Here is my take of teams in the AFC WEST DIVISION for 2009.

DENVER
Team Theme ? TICK TICK TICK
The warning signs were there. After averaging more than 11 wins per season from 2003-05, the Broncos fed on a diet of 8 wins per season the last three years, all non-playoff campaigns. To confirm the depths to which Denver had fallen, take note of its 14-33-1 ATS mark the last three seasons which, hands down, was the worst in the league. Thus, it was no surprise when Pat Bowlen parted ways with Mike Shanahan after a 14-year marriage. Josh McDaniels - another Bill Belichick disciple - takes the reins amid consternation of Bronco fans. That resulted when McDaniels told Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler to hit the bricks and settled instead on Kyle Orton via a trade that left most NFL pundits scratching their heads. We?ll see if doing things in a hard-headed manner makes McDaniels a guru or a goner, ala Lane Kiffin, the ex-Raiders coach. He?s on the clock.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Washington (11/15)


KANSAS CITY
Team Theme ? HALEY?S COMET
Another head coach debuts in the NFL this season when Todd Haley, the offensive coordinator with the Arizona Cardinals the past two seasons, takes over for Herm Edwards in Kansas City. The Chiefs went a franchise-worst 2-14 last season and have won only 2 of their last 25 games, equaling Detroit for ineptness over the same span. GM Scott Pioli, who worked with Haley when they teamed up with the NY Jets, made a major move when he acquired Pro Bowl QB Matt Cassel from the Patriots. Cassel assumes command of the youngest offense in the league, one that actually improved 23 YPG last season. Truth be known, it?s the defense that will determine the bottom-line for the Chiefs in 2009. We?ll know more about what kind of a show this team can put on real quick, early on, when they it takes on Baltimore, San Diego and the entire NFC East before its open date on Week Eight. Whew!
PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. Cleveland (12/20)

OAKLAND
Team Theme ? BLACK HOLE
If Al Davis owned a casino in Las Vegas it would be boarded up and cited for mismanagement by the city. How else can you explain the Raiders fall from grace? It hardly seems possible, but it was just six years ago that Oakland lost as a favorite to Tampa Bay in SBXXXVII. Since then the Black and Silver have gone 24-72 SU and 33-62-1 ATS. In the process, Davis has pointed the finger of blame at five different head coaches, all of whom have been sucked up and spit out by that black hole in Oakland. Further evidence of Davis? ineptitude was in this year?s NFL draft when he selected Darrius Heyward-Bey, a speed burning WR, ahead of Pro Bowl-caliber WR Michael Crabtree. Intelligence is obviously not a pre-requisite for NFL ownership. Off an inside-out effort last season (win-loss record up; stats down), expect the Raiders to be like a black hole when the playoffs come around - Invisible!"
PLAY AGAINST: as favorites vs. NY Jets (10/25)

SAN DIEGO
Team Theme ? CALLING THE TURNer
To their credit, the Chargers willed themselves into the playoffs with a furious four-game push to conclude the campaign last year. In the process they became the first team in the NFL since 1955 to start a season 4-8 and make the playoffs. Were it not for four leads lost in the final 24 seconds, the path would have been easier. It?s also probably safe to say that had LB Shawn Merriman, the best defensive player in the AFC, not gone down with a season-ending injury early in the year, none of this tale would have been spun. Through it all, San Diego head coach Norv Turner managed to stave off a visit from the dreaded pink-slip man. Granted, Turner continues to own some hideous spread records as a head coach in this league (i.e. - 0-5 ATS as double-digit division chalk), but he?s got every one in this sun-drenched city convinced the Chargers are about to make a move in 2009.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. Oakland (9/14)

 

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AFC North is Pittsburgh's to lose

AFC North is Pittsburgh's to lose

AFC North is Pittsburgh's to lose

If you?re an Ohio football fan and you?re sick and tired of the Bengals and Browns playing Baltic and Mediterranean to Pittsburgh?s Boardwalk and Baltimore?s Park Place, the chances are real good that come January you will be even sicker and more tired.

The Ravens and Super Bowl-champ Steelers went 10-2 in the AFC North last season and were a combined 8-0 in the division against the Brownies and Bengals. Cleveland and Cincinnati split against each other in 2008, accounting for their combined two division wins.

Not much has changed, although there are stirrings in Cincinnati as Carson Palmer finally begins a season at near 100 percent.


Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected win total: 10.5

Prediction: Over

First, the good news. At last check Ben Roethlisberger was still in one piece, which is a bit of a surprise considering he has been sacked about 140 times over the last three seasons. No wonder he shrugged off that motorcycle accident.

All of the sack time was courtesy of a very loose offensive line on a team that got hot at the right time and went on to win the Super Bowl.

After the season the Steelers knew they had to make a few moves up front, and cut loose OL Marvel Smith and Kendall Simmons, both of whom will be replaced in-house (Pittsburgh doesn?t do free agency).

Willie Parker has been a horse in the backfield, but the Steelers figure to follow a lot of teams into the two-back system, especially if Rashard Mendenhall (hurt all last season) can produce the way they hope.

Whatever warts that surfaced when the Steelers had the ball last year were pruned away by the league?s best defense, which returns pretty much intact this September. Bloggers in western Pennsylvania can talk about lack of depth in the Front 7, but that?s nitpicking.

Even if Pittsburgh doesn?t replicate the 2008 defense which held opponents to 80 rushing yards, 277 yards overall and less than 14 points a game, it should still be enough to bail out the offense and produce a double-digit win total. The Steelers locked up defensive player of the year James Harrison for six years ($51 million), and they?ll be content to fill in around him with drafted talent.

Surprising stat: The Steelers scored just about a touchdown more in playoff games last season than they did in the regular season.

Baltimore Ravens

Projected win total: 8.5

Prediction: Over

From late October on the Ravens were the best cover team in the NFL. Starting with an Oct. 19 spanking of the Dolphins in Miami, Baltimore covered the number 10 of 12 times before the train stalled in the AFC Championship Game in Pittsburgh.

That basically sums up Baltimore?s annual problem of being a very good team in a division which also houses the league?s best team.

The Ravens tend to not make dramatic offseason moves, and the spring/summer of ?09 is no different. Gone are defensive coordinator Rex Reed, LB Bart Scott, and retired wideout Derrick Mason and placekicker Matt Stover.

The replacements are no-namers, but second-year coach John Harbaugh is hardly concerned. What he has left is surely good enough to beat back the Bengals and Browns, and challenge for a wild-card spot again.

At M&T Bank Stadium it starts and ends with defense, specifically the linebacking group that includes Ray Lewis and the recently re-signed Terrell Suggs. The defense created so much mayhem for opposing quarterbacks that the Ravens led the league in interceptions, with 26. Safety Ed Reed had nine on his own.

Second-year QB Joe Flacco will be allowed to free-lance a bit more, but the 2009 Ravens? offense will be run-oriented and focused on limiting mistakes. Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Le?Ron McClain all figured to get their share of carries.

Surprising stat: Joe Flacco?s passing accuracy improved by nearly 10 percentage points in the second halves of games last season -- 65 percent, to 55 percent in the first halfves.

Cincinnati Bengals

Projected win total: 6.5

Prediction: Over

Are things slooooooooowly starting to turn in Cincinnati? The Bengals open training camp in the next few days with a healthy quarterback, a pair of A-1 wide receivers, a couple of solid free agent signees, and draft choices that everyone seems to like.

To make a serious playoff run, strange things would have to happen to several AFC teams ahead of them in the AFC pecking order, but optimism seems to be taking hold in Cincy after two years spent drawing dead.

The signing of WR Lavernaeus Coles more than replaces the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and maintains balance at the position. It also gives QB Carson Palmer a clutch receiver who will not have a mid-game or mid-season meltdown the way Chad Ochocinco annually does.

The Bengals are enthused about the free agent additions of safety Roy Williams and DL Tank Johnson, both plucked from Dallas, and their two top draft choices, tackle Andre Smith and linebacker Ray Maualuga, both should play right away.

Surprising stat: The Bengals scored fewer than 20 points in nine of their last 11 games and finished the 2008 season with four straight unders.

Cleveland Browns

Projected win total: 7

Prediction: Under

Eric Mangini.

Eric Mangini???

The Browns jumped quickly to hire Mangini, though thousands of fans in the Cleveland area would love to know what in Mangini?s past is evidence that he can turn around one of the few NFL franchises that has yet to play in a Super Bowl.

Whatever. Mangini now has the keys to the car, and he inherits a slew of problems, not the least of which is figuring out a way to get the Browns into the end zone every now and then.

Cleveland went the last six games of the 2008 season without an offensive touchdown, which is one of the five warning signs that your team stinks.

Brady Quinn has done little over the past two seasons to prove that he can move the team, but he?ll start this year and Derek Anderson will be the league?s most expensive backup QB.

TE Kellen Winslow has departed and can do his best to wreck the Tampa Bay locker room, but Braylon Edwards returns and will hopefully avoid leading the league in dropped passes again this season.

The franchise does have some talent. Shaun Rogers is a top-tier nose tackle, and D?Qwell Jackson is a tacking machine at the linebacker position.

Surprising stat: The Browns have lost to the Steelers 11 straight times.

 

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NFC East Preview

NFC East Preview

NFC East Preview

Hands down the toughest division in the NFC, and arguably in the entire NFL, the NFC EAST is home to the best defensive brand of football in the league.

The division completed a ?grand slam? of sorts in 2008 when all four residents ended the season with sub 300-yard defenses.

To further enhance their stance, a message was sent to the rest of the league when all four teams shored up their stop-units in the off-season.

Now, provided they don?t beat each other to a pulp, the NFC EAST will be out to live up to the adage that defense wins football games in the NFL.

Here is my take of teams in the NFC EAST for 2009. ?

NFC EAST

DALLAS
Team Theme ? POST TURKEY TRAUMA
Jerry Jones? new billion-dollar palace will serve as the playground for the most overrated team in the NFL. While the Cowboys have enjoyed four winning seasons in a row, they have been a resounding disappointment the last dozen years. In that span, the scorecard shows ?America?s Team? is seven games under .500 (95-102) in all games, including 30-53 SU and 29-50-4 ATS against winning opposition. It all goes hand in hand with Dallas? disappearing act in the playoffs. One glance at the Cowboys? post-Thanksgiving schedule (Giants, Chargers, Saints, Redskins and Eagles) tells us all we need to know about their prospects in 2009. The last time Dallas posted a winning record in games from December out was in 1996. Like we say every year, if Jones had anyone else overseeing this operation he would have fired him long ago.
PLAY AGAINST: vs. San Diego (12/13)



NY GIANTS
Team Theme - THE G-SPOT
Through it all, despite a frustrating 1-4 finish, the defending Super Bowl champions enjoyed a solid season in 2008. While somehow managing their way through the Plaxico Burress distractions, and shaking off the added weight that usually accompanies defending champions, the Giants managed a trim and healthy 12-5 SU and ATS record. Better yet, they improved their numbers on both sides of the ball from their Super Bowl season. To top it off, a strong draft figures to fortify the ranks, making the G-Men deeper this year than at any time under head coach Tom Coughlin. A tricky three-game road trek early in the season would be a problem for most teams. Not for this road warrior, who is 14-3 SU and 15-2 ATS in its last seventeen road games. While it?s true that only two opponents on this year?s schedule suffered losing seasons last year, we look for Big Blue to rise to the occasion and beat the spot in 2009.
PLAY ON: as a road dog vs. Philadelphia (11/1)

PHILADELPHIA
Team Theme ? POCKET ACES
For a team that was upended as road favorites the NFC title game last year, the Eagles made significant moves during the off-season, signaling an ?all-in? move for the 2009 season ahead. The addition of key veteran players such at LT Jason Peters, RT Stacy Adams and CB Ellis Hobbs was a coup. However, it didn?t stop there. Philadelphia cleaned up in the NFL draft, landing WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy to cement a terrific off-season of key acquisitions. The onus now falls squarely on the shoulders of head coach Andy Reid and QB Donovan McNabb who, in tandem, have won ten playoff games in ten years. Sure, they have had some bad flops along the way but as a pair, Reid and McNabb have made it to the final table (read: playoffs) more often than not. Here?s hoping the river flows their way and that they get the winning bracelet they so richly deserve.
PLAY ON: vs. Washington (10/26) - *KEY off a win of 6 > points

WASHINGTON
Team Theme ? HOG TIED
Last year, Jim Zorn became the eighth-straight Redskin coach to fail to record a winning season in his first season at the helm with Washington. A tantalizing 4-1 start last season titillated owner Daniel Snyder?s championship fantasy but, when push came to shove, the Redskins ended the year with a record worse than any of their NFC East division rivals and were home alone for the playoffs. That prompted the Boss Hog to empty the coffers when he signed the NFL?s best defensive force in Albert Haynesworth. The Skins then selected DE Brian Orapko from Texas in the first-round of the NFL draft and three additional defensive reinforcements with their next three picks. A new message was sent. If you are going to beat teams in the toughest division in the league, you will need to tie them down and do it with defense. The new-look Hogs got the memo.
PLAY AGAINST: as a road dog vs. Dallas (11/22)

 

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Football is the focus in the NFC East

Football is the focus in the NFC East

Football is the focus in the NFC East


The NFC East used to be so much fun.

-Donovan McNabb battling Terrell Owens.

-Terrell Owens vs. Tony Romo/Jason Witten.

-Romo and Jessica Simpson.

-The Giants locker room and union vs. Tom Coughlin.

-Jerry Jones?s face vs. gravity.

There?s still potential, but the offseason so far has been mostly about football, and that?s a little disappointing.

New York Giants

Projected win total: 10

Prediction: Push

How it must eat at Coughlin?s stomach lining that the East Rutherfords were 11-1 before whack job Plaxico Burress inadvertently shot up that nightclub, and 2-4 (including a playoff loss) after he was suspended.

The Giants haven?t done much to replace Burress except for rolling the dice on wideout draftee Hakeem Nicks, and if they go into the season without making a move (Anquan Boldin?) for a deep threat, how will it affect the powerful running game provided by Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw?

Giants fans spent all spring and most of what has passed for summer in the Northeast re-living the playoff loss to the Eagles in which NY got inside the Eagles 20 five times and settled for a total of nine points.

Defensively there are few issues. After dominating the Patriots in the Super Bowl two years ago, the defensive line will never pay for another drink in Manhattan, and the linebackers and cornerbacks are also solid. The Giants should have a huge edge when they go out of the division and face the finesse teams in the AFC West and NFC South.

Surprising stat: The same five players on the offensive line have started every game for two straight years, a large factor in NY having four 1,000-yard rushers over the last three seasons.

Philadelphia Eagles

Projected win total: 9.5

Prediction: Under

You move ahead or you lose ground in the NFL, and with that in mind the Eagles revamped much of an offensive line that wasn?t that bad but was getting a little stale.

Jason Peters, whose career stalled last season, is the key addition, replacing veteran Tra Thomas. The line will get time for on-the-job-training because the early-season schedule is dotted with Tampa Bays, Kansas Citys and Oaklands before the NFC East heavy lifting starts in late October, and the Eagles always seem to close the deal with great play in December.

For an easy-going nice guy, Donovan McNabb has had a turbulent career in Philadelphia, though to be fair every good athlete?s Philadelphia career seems turbulent. Coach Andy Reid called him the best QB in the league in the euphoria immediately after their playoff win over the Giants, a curious statement considering that only a month and a half earlier Reid had benched McNabb.

Fortunately McNabb got the message and was a better QB from that point on, and Reid won?t have to do anything similar this season.

Brian Westbrook returns as the featured back but will be 30 (gulp) when the season starts and his injury history indicates he could be experiencing death by a thousand cuts.

Surprising stat: The Eagles defense knew how to get off the field last season ? Philly was second in the league, allowing opponents to convert only 32 percent of third-down plays.

Dallas Cowboys

Projected win total: 9

Prediction: Under

Forget the cheerleaders (if you can). Lacking a heart, this team?s symbol should be the Tin Man from the Wizard of Oz. The notorious front-runners kick butt in September and October, then start a slow fade before falling apart at the first sign of trouble in December.

Wade Phillips has eight years experience as head coach, but of his teams? 70 victories, none have come in the playoffs. Phillips promises no more good-uncle Mr. Nice Guy as he tries to put the toothpaste back in the tube and re-gain control of the locker room, but everyone knows he probably won?t make it to November if the Boys start 2-4.

In the offseason Dallas favored addition by subtraction, allowing Owens and DL Chris Canty to walk, and they might have caught a big break when Romo broke up with bad-luck famehound Jessica Simpson early in July.

With a suspect defense, a lot depends on Romo?s ability to move the team, and watching him run around is fun, but has also led to him turning over the ball almost twice a game over the past two seasons. Roy Williams takes over as No. 1 wideout, but Romo will go to TE Jason Witten more than ever.

If running back Felix Jones (injured last season) can hold up his end of the bargain, he?ll get some carries behind lead dog Marion Barber.

Interesting stat: The Cowboys haven?t had a winning record in the month of December since 1996. Since 1997 Dallas?s December record is 19-31.

Washington Redskins

Projected win total: 8.5

Prediction: Under

Pity the confused Washington sports fans. The Nationals stink because they?re cheap and the Redskins stink because they pay their players too much.

After last year?s collapse (6-2 start, 2-6 finish) the Redskins responded the only way they know how ? raiding Dan Snyder?s checkbook.

Pocket-collapser Albert Haynesworth signed on the first day of free agency, and even if he isn?t 100 percent motivated, he?ll help a defense that was pretty good last season. There is no shortage of defense lawyers in the D.C. area, and if history is any guide Haynesworth will keep food on their tables.

The big problem is on offense, where coach Jim Zorn doesn?t really trust QB Jason Campbell but needs Campbell to succeed to insure job security for both of them. Campbell?s low-risk offense was OK in the first half of the season, but when defenses knew that Campbell wouldn?t throw deep, the entire offense sputtered. Clinton Portis, who gained 5.0 yards a carry in the club?s first eight games, but only 3.5 in the second half.

Interesting stat: Campbell?s QB rating for games 1-8 was 115, and for games 9-16 it was only 71.

 

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AFC North First Look

AFC North First Look

AFC North First Look
July 29, 2009


The Pittsburgh Steelers are ready to defend their AFC North crown but watch out for the Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are a surprising +400 to win the division as Carson Palmer returns and the defense continues to make strides.


Pittsburgh Steelers

2009 Odds: -240 to win AFC North, +500 AFC, +1000 Super Bowl
2009 Over/Under in Wins: 10.5
2008 Record 12-4 (22nd ranked offense, 1st defense)

Pittsburgh is on top of the world as defending champs, but it?s certainly hard to repeat and now quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has to deal with a sexual assault case. One thing that would help is getting the running game to be more consistent as they dipped from 3rd in 2007 to 23rd last year. A healthy Rashard Mendehall should help.

The top-ranked Steelers defense isn?t likely to slip much despite a little age on the line. That?s because the linebackers may be tops in the NFL, led by a re-signed James Harrison. The cornerbacks are also underrated although they?re helped by the pass rush. Overall, Pittsburgh returns almost all their starters from a year ago and they?ll make a run with their easy schedule.

Baltimore Ravens

2009 Odds: +350 to win AFC North, +900 AFC, +2000 Super Bowl
2009 Over/Under in Wins: 8.5
2008 Record 11-5 (18th ranked offense, 2nd defense)


Oddsmakers expect Baltimore to take a step back with an Over/Under Win Total of 8.5 after winning 11 games last year. The dip shouldn?t come on offense where second year quarterback Joe Flacco should improve even if receiver Derrick Mason stays retired. The league?s 4th ranked rushing attack should also stay strong.

The defense is where the Ravens could decline after losing coordinator Rex Ryan and players Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard, all to the Jets. They did re-sign linebackers Ray Lewis and Terrell Suggs and signed cornerback Domonique Foxworth to replace Chris McAlister, but new coordinator Greg Mattison has huge shoes to fill.

Cincinnati Bengals

2009 Odds: +400 to win AFC North, +3000 AFC, +6000 Super Bowl
2009 Over/Under in Wins: 6.5
2008 Record 4-11-1 (32nd ranked offense, 12th defense)

There is optimism in the ?Queen City? as quarterback Carson Palmer is back and healthy and that means there?s no way this offense is last in the league again. There are three new starters on the o-line but their talent at running back (Cedric Benson) and wide receiver (Chad Ochocinco, Laveranues Coles) should thrive if the line holds up.

The Bengals defense was quietly ranked 12th in the NFL in total yards and they did it without getting to the quarterback (30th in sacks). D-coordinator Mike Zimmer is hoping that adding veteran Tank Johnson at defensive tackle and Roy Williams at safety will allow him to open up the defense more to create pressure. If it does, then Cincy could surprise with their Win Total.

Cleveland Browns

2009 Odds: +1200 to win AFC North, +4000 AFC, +7500 Super Bowl
2009 Over/Under in Wins: 6.5
2008 Record 4-12 (31st ranked offense, 26th defense)

The other Ohio team is looking for a fresh start with Eric Mangini as coach, and he?s looking to put his Jets? experience behind him. The big question is at quarterback where Brady Quinn has the slight edge over Derek Anderson. That situation needs to be resolved soon as they need an identity with tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. gone and receiver Braylon Edwards coming off a poor season.

Defense is where Mangini made his mark as an assistant and he brought over the respected Rob Ryan from Oakland. Mangini has added a bunch of former Jets defenders who know what he?s trying to accomplish. However, Cleveland still needs playmakers to step up and there is going to be an adjustment period with so many moving pieces. Expect Cleveland in the AFC North basement with the 6.5 Win Total in jeopardy.

 

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AFC East breakdown

AFC East breakdown

AFC East breakdown
July 28, 2009


The New England Patriots are the heavy favorites to win the AFC East

But while the Pats seem a cut above on paper, the Jets, Dolphins and Bills are so even that their odds are almost identical.


New England Patriots


2009 Odds: -600 to win AFC East, +220 AFC, +450 Super Bowl
2009 Over/Under in Wins: 11.5
2008 Record 11-5 (5th ranked offense, 10th defense)

Tom Brady is back from his knee surgery and he joins an impressive array of offensive talent that has added veteran running back Fred Taylor and receiver Joey Galloway. There is major fear that Matt Cassel is no longer around if Brady gets hurt, but Cassel came out of nowhere last year and the same could be true for current backup Kevin O?Connell.

The defense has two big question marks, the secondary and outside linebacker. The starting corners could both be new with Leigh Bodden and Shawn Springs while the safeties have to permanently adjust to life without Rodney Harrison. Jason Taylor was supposed to fill an outside linebacker role which will now likely go to Pierre Woods. Whether this defense is championship caliber is a major question mark.

New York Jets

2009 Odds: +800 to win AFC East, +2000 AFC, +4000 Super Bowl
2009 Over/Under in Wins: 7
2008 Record 9-7 (16th ranked offense, 16th defense)

The Jets managed to blow an 8-3 start last year and finish 9-7. The running game will be the offensive strength behind their excellent offensive line, but how many points will they score with rookie Mark Sanchez at quarterback and a questionable receiving corps? That should be keeping new coach Rex Ryan up at night, but probably won?t be with his bravado.

The attacking defensive system that Ryan is bringing from Baltimore is what is exciting Jets? fans the most. There?s a lot of talent on that side of the ball even with Calvin Pace suspended for four games, but it may take some time to jell even with Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard joining Ryan from Baltimore. Look for a solid season from Ryan?s squad but for the team to really make noise in 2010.

Miami Dolphins

2009 Odds: +800 to win AFC East, +2500 AFC, +5000 Super Bowl
2009 Over/Under in Wins: 7
2008 Record 11-5 (12th ranked offense, 15th defense)

Miami is not getting a lot of respect at their current odds, but the feeling is they snuck up people last year and will go back down to Earth with the Patriots? Brady back. The offense should be solid but unspectacular again with Chad Pennington at quarterback and their running game, but they?re going to need to pull out a bunch of close games once again.

The Dolphins defense was 5th against the run last year and 25th against the pass, so they added a couple of corners early in the draft with Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. Jason Taylor was added to help Joey Porter rush the passer, but both players are getting up there. Miami will be playing more potent offenses this year with their tough schedule, but don?t discount Coach Tony Sparano and the rest of the Bill Parcels braintrust.

Buffalo Bills

2009 Odds: +800 to win AFC East, +2500 AFC, +5000 Super Bowl
2009 Over/Under in Wins: 7.5
2008 Record 7-9 (25th ranked offense, 14th defense)

Buffalo is suddenly a hot team in the league due to the acquisition of Terrell Owens. And while he does present a good one-two punch with Lee Evans, quarterback Trent Edwards has to deal with a very suspect offensive line and a running game missing the suspended Marshawn Lynch for the first four games.

The Bills defense made good strides last year going from 31st to 14th in yards allowed and they did it without creating a lot of sacks and turnovers. Aaron Maybin was drafted with the 11th overall pick to get to the quarterback and they also have a healthy Aaron Schobel returning at defensive end. If the defense continues to improve, Buffalo should go Over the 7.5 Win Total.

 

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Bettors Like The East

Bettors Like The East

Bettors Like The East
July 29, 2009

By SPORTSBETTING.COM

NFC East Betting Preview

Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn?t and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football. As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.

The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.

Hell, there?s a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).

But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.


Sports bettors and the online sportsbooks have both acknowledged the NFC East?s dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.

Looking over the NFL Odds at SPORTSBETTING.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:

Dallas Cowboys - 7-1
Philadelphia Eagles - 13-2
New York Giants - 9-2

Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).

You can check all the NFL Odds

SPORTSBETTING.com has been seeing steady wagering action on the future odds, with an increase the last week or so with the NFL camps set to open.

Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.

So far, the New York Giants are the bettors favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.

And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.

They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.

Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.

But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.

Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.

Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven?t really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.

Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.

Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?

Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.

In the Giants? last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.

Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.

Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won?t do.

The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.

The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.

 

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AFC Predictions

AFC Predictions

AFC Predictions
July 29, 2009

AFC EAST: New England, Buffalo, Miami, New York

Most teams that lose a franchise QB minutes into the season would spiral into a disastrous season but the New England Patriots went 11-5 last season and in most years would have still made the playoffs. This year the Patriots will benefit by playing a second place schedule that should provide a lot of opportunities for wins. The health of Tom Brady will be critical but the track record of this organization is remarkable even with the loss of some key people in the management and coaching staff. The Patriots will not only be the team to beat in this division but likely the Super Bowl favorites.

After three straight mediocre 7-9 seasons the Buffalo Bills needed to do something drastic to either take the next step or implode and start over. With the signing of Terrell Owens the Bills took that exact type of gamble and odds are that it will payoff in a playoff run or be a disaster that runs coach Jauron out of town. One thing is for certain, the Bills have instantly become a more interesting team that will get a lot more attention. Buffalo gets to play a fourth place schedule but with this division facing the AFC and NFC South divisions there will be depressed records and limited chance for a wild card spot out of the East.


The Miami Dolphins may have improved a little too quickly. After going 1-15 in 2007, the Dolphins stormed to a 11-5 season and a division title. This season the schedule will be much tougher and Miami will not surprise anyone. Miami won seven games by seven points or less last year and a drop in the standings is very likely this season. There are some nice pieces in place for the Dolphins but things should turn for the worse in 2009.

Rex Ryan takes over for the New York Jets and although a couple of teams that went with new coaches and new QBs had success last season the Jets will have a hard time making that same transition. The Jets will face playoff teams each of the first four games of the season and if rookie QB Mark Sanchez is starting right away it could be a long opening month that could cripple the team for the remainder of the season. The Jets might not know what they had until it is gone.

AFC NORTH: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland Despite facing a tough schedule last season the Pittsburgh Steelers went 12-4 and carried that momentum all the way to a Super Bowl title. The Steelers have owned this division under Coach Tomlin and there is little reason to suggest that Pittsburgh will be seriously challenged on top of the North this year. The offense did not post great numbers last season and the defense will need to fill some gaps but Pittsburgh will still catch a favorable schedule facing the AFC West and the NFC North so a return playoff trip is very likely. Pittsburgh?s defensive formula has worked well and the Steelers should be very tough to score on again.

Predicting success for the Cincinnati Bengals is problematic as they have dealt with a lot of injuries and they seem to attract controversial players that can cause locker room issues. Still if QB Carson Palmer can stay healthy the Bengals should have the most explosive offense in this division. The defense should actually be respectable for the Bengals as this team played well late last season, closing with three straight wins. The schedule should also provide many more opportunities for wins. Look for Cincinnati to be a wild card contender with a greatly improved record in 2009.

Last season the Baltimore Ravens were a great success story but there are many reasons to expect a big fall this year. A second place schedule brings the Ravens New England and Indianapolis on the schedule, which no one else in the division plays and the Ravens also got tougher draws compared to the other squads in this division, playing on the road at Minnesota, Green Bay, and San Diego. Baltimore?s defense continues to age and QB Joe Flacco had a lot of mistakes that were covered up by the defense creating turnovers and big plays.

Another new beginning starts for the Cleveland Browns as Eric Mangini takes over. The Browns defense was terrible last season and the offense failed to top eleven points in ten games. Looking at the statistics it is hard to believe this team won four games last year and getting to four this season would be a great accomplishment as the first half schedule is absolutely brutal.

NFC SOUTH: Jacksonville, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Houston The AFC South should be far and away the best division in the AFC and getting three playoff teams out of this group would not be a surprise. Expect a very tight race and perhaps a surprise winner as the Jacksonville Jaguars could really make a move this season. The Jaguars were a trendy Super Bowl pick last season but lost seven games by ten points or less and completely fell apart in the second half. The offensive line was riddled with injuries and that weakness was addressed significantly this off-season. This is a team that has won twelve games twice in the last four years and a significant bounce back should be in order as they catch by far the most favorable schedule of the four teams in this division.

There will be a lot of big changes for the Indianapolis Colts this season but as long as QB Peyton Manning is involved the Colts should be a playoff contender. Indianapolis has won at least twelve games for six consecutive years and this should be a smoother coaching change transition than many others as it was expected and planned for. The Colts should remain a very competitive team this will be a team that oddsmakers and gamblers may have a tough time figuring out for a while. Recall last season Indianapolis started 3-4 and yet still rallied for a playoff spot so this is a tough team to count out.

The Tennessee Titans went 13-3 last season to earn the AFC?s top seed but the Titans faded at the wrong time and saw a quick exit from the playoffs. Losing DT Haynesworth is significant and the QB situation will remain a bit murky although Kerry Collins delivered a great season last year. Coach Jeff Fisher has continually proven to be one of the best and the Titans often have over achieved but there should be a drop in the win column in Nashville this season.

The Houston Texans are going to be a very trendy playoff pick but this team has been .500 each of the last two years and making the jump in this division will be very difficult. Five of Houston?s wins came by seven points or less last season and the defense has never been as good statistically as the personnel suggest it should be. QB Matt Schaub has not stayed healthy and will still be the weakest and least experienced QB in this division. Houston will be good, but that may not mean playoffs.

NFC WEST: San Diego, Oakland, Denver, Kansas City Predicting the San Diego Chargers to win this division seemed like a no-brainer last season but it was not until the final game that the Chargers got back into first place. The Chargers had several losses that were tough to swallow last season but in the playoffs they showed they can still play with anyone. There are some nagging injury concerns and a tough schedule draw with the NFC East teams but San Diego appears to be clearly the top team in this division and if they take care of business in division play, they could feature one of the better records in the AFC. If San Diego does not win this division, expect changes to be made as they have by far the best talent.

The Oakland Raiders continue to be a popular punch line but in reality this is an intriguing team that should be respectable this season. For the most part the Raiders played very good defense last season and that should be the case again this year which can keep them in games. Between an improving JaMarcus Russell and Jeff Garcia, QB play should the best it has been in years and Oakland has a lot of young talent at the skill positions. Given all the distractions last season Oakland still won five games last year and this is a team that can probably get close to .500 and at least shake off some of the negative attention.

The Denver Broncos made a big and controversial move in letting go of Mike Shanahan after last season and his replacement Josh McDaniels has not had an encouraging start as his QB and most recognizable player forced his way out. McDaniels could be given little patience and he inherits a Denver team that was fortunate to finish 8-8 last year. Expectations will be high and there is simply not a great deal of play-makers and the defense was a complete disaster last season. Things could get worse before they get better in Denver.

There is a lot of interest in the big changes for the Kansas City Chiefs. Unfortunately a slow start should be expected with a killer schedule in first half of the season. Given the transition, a very tough start should be expected but this is a team heading in the right direction although it may not look that way until late in the season. The Chiefs were more competitive than the 2-14 record indicates but this is still a team starting over.

 

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Upset in the AFC South?

Upset in the AFC South?

Upset in the AFC South?
July 31, 2009


The Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans are still the favorites in the AFC South but can the Houston Texans finally make their move?

has released all the odds and this division is as close as any time in recent memory with Houston getting lots of betting support.



Indianapolis Colts

2009 Odds: +160 to win AFC South, +600 AFC
2009 Over/Under in Wins: 10
2008 Record 12-4 (15th ranked offense, 11th defense)

Coach Tony Dungy has finally lived up to his promise to retire and the reigns have been handed over to Jim Caldwell. Caldwell will have to address an offense that dropped from 5th in 2007 to 15th last year due to a running game that was 31st overall. The team is hoping a healthy offensive line and rookie runner Donald Brown can improve those figures.

On the defensive side of the ball, Indy continued to have problems stopping the run at 122.9 yards allowed per game. The run game also haunted them in their home playoff loss to San Diego so they drafted tackle Fili Moala to help fill the void. Overall, the Colts will always be dangerous with Peyton Manning and company, but they?re as vulnerable as they?ve been in years.

Tennessee Titans

2009 Odds: +225 to win AFC South, +900 AFC
2009 Over/Under in Wins: 9
2008 Record 13-3 (21st ranked offense, 7th defense)





Tennessee won 13 games last year but have an Over/Under Win Total of just nine this season. Can someone say disrespected? A big reason is that few believe quarterback Kerry Collins can duplicate his success from last year. Collins didn?t throw for a lot of yards but he managed the game well with only seven interceptions. Collins will have more pressure on him as teams stack the run and force him to beat them.

The Titans defense received one of the big blows of the off-season with the loss of Albert Haynesworth. Their run defense was ranked 6th last year and while they have some decent replacements, none can disrupt an offense like ?Big Albert?. It?s going to take another great effort from Coach Jeff Fisher to get this squad back to double-digit wins again.

Houston Texans

2009 Odds: +350 to win AFC South, +1500 AFC
2009 Over/Under in Wins: 8.5
2008 Record 8-8 (3rd ranked offense, 22nd defense)

Houston is a trendy pick again after finishing 8-8 the last two years, and finishing 5-1 to end last season. The offense ranked 3rd in the NFL in total yards although that only translated to 17th in points, so they need to do a better job scoring touchdowns. Having quarterback Matt Schaub healthy for a full season would certainly help.

The Texans defense slipped to 22nd last year and they?re still trying to find the formula to make them a playoff team. Antonio Smith was signed from Arizona to play tackle in the 3-4 and rookie OLB Connor Barwin is an athletic freak who will help with the 25th ranked pass rush. Another rookie, Brian Cushing will start at linebacker but they do need to resolve the cornerback position as an unhappy Dunta Robinson is sitting out.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2009 Odds: +350 to win AFC South, +1500 AFC
2009 Over/Under in Wins: 8
2008 Record 5-11 (20th ranked offense, 17th defense)

Jacksonville went from 11-5 in 2007 to just 5-11 last year. A big reason was the once dominating running game became mediocre and quarterback David Garrard struggled with a decimated offensive line. Garrard?s play should improve with a revamped o-line, but the wide receivers are weak. Maurice Jones-Drew will also have to carry the running back load with Fred Taylor gone to New England.

With the offense looking mediocre at best, the defense will need to step up. The problem is they don?t have as many standout players as they?ve had in prior years. On paper, the Jags look like the bottom dwellers of the AFC South although it?s hard to believe they?ll be as bad as their record last season.

 

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Jags poised to rebound

Jags poised to rebound

Jags poised to rebound
2009 Jacksonville Jaguars Preview



Every season a team comes from relative obscurity to have a great season and make a playoff run. In 2009 that team could be the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars slipped to an awful 5-11 last year but they made some nice off-season moves and could be poised to jump right back into the playoffs this season. Jacksonville is considered a longshot which makes them a nice value in NFL odds to win the Super Bowl as they are listed at 45-1.


The Jaguars really cleaned house in the off-season. They got rid of Fred Taylor, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones, Mike Peterson, Khalif Barnes, Paul Spicer, Jerry Porter, Drayton Florence and Gerald Sensabaughnees. What could also help the Jaguars make a big improvement this season is the pressure on head coach Jack Del Rio. The Jaguars also have a new defensive coordinator as Gregg Williams is gone, replaced by Mel Tucker.




The Jaguars finally did something about their poor receiving corps by getting Torry Holt in the off-season. He immediately makes their offense a lot better. He gives quarterback David Garrard the receiver he has needed for years. This is a make or break season for Garrard so the heat is on in Jacksonville. The Jags still have a very good running game led by Maurice Jones-Drew. He is a great runner and receiver and is the key player on offense. He led NFL running backs in receiving yards last year. Receivers looking to get playing time alongside Holt are Mike Walker, Troy Williamson and rookies Mike Thomas and Jarett Dillard. Mercedes Lewis is a solid tight end. The offensive line should be a lot better in 2009. Three starters are back from injuries and the Jags took Eugene Monroe out of Virginia at #8 in the draft and they also got Eben Britton of Arizona. The team also signed free agent tackle Tra Thomas. Jacksonville is going to be a lot better on offense in 2009 with a healthy and talented offensive line.



The defense is a question mark for the Jags. Tackles John Henderson and Rob Meier are okay but nothing special while ends Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves don?t excite you either. The linebackers are solid even without Peterson. Daryl Smith could be a start while Clint Ingram and Justin Durant should be in the mix. The secondary is led by cornerback Rashean Mathis who is back from injury. The problem for the Jags is they don?t have much behind him. They are hoping draft pick Derek Cox can step in and play this year. They also picked up safety Sean Considine from the Eagles and they added Gerald Alexander and Marlon McCree. The Jaguars have a great kicker in Josh Scobee while Steve Weatherford is a solid punter.



The Jaguars should be vastly improved in 2009 and are a team that could go from 5-11 into the NFL odds playoffs this season.