7-2-1 in own thread.
17-11-1 since first posting in Rd. 10.
As I said last week, stats a bit pointless as far as Geelong are concerned. Best at just about everything, but also skewed a fair bit by the Richmond game still.
Doggies have won 7 of last 11 v. Geelong...
One of those wins was by a single point last season as 1.75 favs (Geelong).
The Cats' last big wins were by 35 and 46 as ~1.30 favs but interestingly lost by 35 in 2005 as 1.20 favs.
...because as good as the Geelong D is, the Bulldogs are the one team that can break them.
Why? Because they have no big, set targets. Johnson, Robbins, Hahn...even Murphy make Harley fairly useless, Scarlett far less effective, but they can outmark the smaller, quicker guys like Wojinsci.
Because the Dogs forward line is pretty consistant, the teams that can limit the Doggies supply worry them the most (Syd, WC, St. K, Crows)...but Geelong allow 50 I50' per game in the Dome this season, relying on their dominance at either end.
Of course, having said all that, Geelong had 3 more I50s and the same amount of shots in Rd. 1...
Cats dese to be solid favs, but reasable chance of a close one.
One I'm steering well clear of.
(But if we get up, top 4 spot beckons!! :00hour )
Hoping to get Collingwood -15.5 or better...
Mind you 1.40 looks reasonable anyway.
Last 5 games, Essendon have allowed 59 I50's (-9), 31 shots @ ~120ppg!
Pies have second best D in that time (2.32), and have 3 more shots per game, just bad kicking has made them look closer games than they really were.
Collingwood had 16 more I50's! and more shots on ANZAC day...Clement and Presti both played...but Wakelin didn't, and Davey kicked 3 for the Bombers.
Collingwood should win, and yeah, 1.40 looks about right really.
Freo upset??...anyone??...Both teams av. +2 I50's in their last 5...even at home, Crows haven't been great. Just +1 I50 and actually av. 1 less shot for the season!
Freo's problem on the road has been their terrible D (Actually, only Carlton and Port worse in last 5), but can Crows score?..esp. if Ricciuto doesn't come up.
Rutten also in some doubt.
Freo won by a point at home this season, but 4 more I5's, 6 more shots...
If we discount the final last year (which Freo were always going to get smashed in!) Dockers haven't lost any of the last 7 meetings by more than 11...inc. winning 2 of the last 3 @ AAMI as big 'dogs.
Gunna be embarrassingly tempted by +16.5 or so!
[Since I first wrote this the Freo coach has resigned and Mark Harvey will take over for this week at least.
Should be a very good thing!]
Hawthorn @ 1.85 looks good. Besides a host of other stats, it is 2nd v. 11th on the ladder after all.
Still, should be aother low scoring slug fest, despite all the talk about not repeating last meeting's 72-44 game.
The 2 BEST defensive mid-fields in the last 5 games...Hawks allow just 44 I50's (+12), Saints 46 (equal with Geelong...+6)...attack and defense numbers remarkably similar...
St. Kilda's attack and defense both improve significantly in the dome, but Hawthorn's numbers are better still if we take out their interstate games.
Total will be interesting...the under seems the obvious play, but I show at least 172 points, so depending on the number...
West Coast have fallen apart, but how many of their players do they get back this week? Judd looks shot, but looks like playing. Cousins looks like playing, Stenglein, Hanson can't be far away.
Don't really want to get involved in a side...again, the under is the obvious play, but the books will know it.
Carlton allowing 36 shots in their last 5!!! You'd have to think they are no chance to win, but taking Brisbane @ 1.15 doesn't interest me at all.
They've won 3 of the last 6 meetings by 15 or less as BIG favs. Don't really care!
Port have won 8 of last 10 meetings, inc. 40 points at home this year...they've won 7 of 10 @ MCG, inc. 2/2 this year, but 1.30 is a bit tight.
Their D is just not good enough to give big spreads, and I think they can give 14 at the most here...
...not interested...although an over could be on the cards @ 195ish?
Kangas win. -15.5 hopefully. Melbourne look to have thrown it in for the season. Pumped last week. Beat a god-awful Carlton on the scoreboard only (less shots, less I50's), the big Daniher night v. Essendon, pumped by Richmond, and 2 wins in which they were also statistically well beaten!
Davey out.
They lost by just a point first meeting, but 11 less I50's and 5 less shots in that one too!!
Kangas still yet to lose to a team outside the 8.
Def. ML, hopefully can get the spread too.
So, plays so far:
Collingwood/Kangaroos ML double (1.90)
Freo +18.5 (1.91)
Will wait with interest for some totals...
Good luck all
17-11-1 since first posting in Rd. 10.
As I said last week, stats a bit pointless as far as Geelong are concerned. Best at just about everything, but also skewed a fair bit by the Richmond game still.
Doggies have won 7 of last 11 v. Geelong...
One of those wins was by a single point last season as 1.75 favs (Geelong).
The Cats' last big wins were by 35 and 46 as ~1.30 favs but interestingly lost by 35 in 2005 as 1.20 favs.
...because as good as the Geelong D is, the Bulldogs are the one team that can break them.
Why? Because they have no big, set targets. Johnson, Robbins, Hahn...even Murphy make Harley fairly useless, Scarlett far less effective, but they can outmark the smaller, quicker guys like Wojinsci.
Because the Dogs forward line is pretty consistant, the teams that can limit the Doggies supply worry them the most (Syd, WC, St. K, Crows)...but Geelong allow 50 I50' per game in the Dome this season, relying on their dominance at either end.
Of course, having said all that, Geelong had 3 more I50s and the same amount of shots in Rd. 1...
Cats dese to be solid favs, but reasable chance of a close one.
One I'm steering well clear of.
(But if we get up, top 4 spot beckons!! :00hour )
Hoping to get Collingwood -15.5 or better...
Mind you 1.40 looks reasonable anyway.
Last 5 games, Essendon have allowed 59 I50's (-9), 31 shots @ ~120ppg!
Pies have second best D in that time (2.32), and have 3 more shots per game, just bad kicking has made them look closer games than they really were.
Collingwood had 16 more I50's! and more shots on ANZAC day...Clement and Presti both played...but Wakelin didn't, and Davey kicked 3 for the Bombers.
Collingwood should win, and yeah, 1.40 looks about right really.
Freo upset??...anyone??...Both teams av. +2 I50's in their last 5...even at home, Crows haven't been great. Just +1 I50 and actually av. 1 less shot for the season!
Freo's problem on the road has been their terrible D (Actually, only Carlton and Port worse in last 5), but can Crows score?..esp. if Ricciuto doesn't come up.
Rutten also in some doubt.
Freo won by a point at home this season, but 4 more I5's, 6 more shots...
If we discount the final last year (which Freo were always going to get smashed in!) Dockers haven't lost any of the last 7 meetings by more than 11...inc. winning 2 of the last 3 @ AAMI as big 'dogs.
Gunna be embarrassingly tempted by +16.5 or so!
[Since I first wrote this the Freo coach has resigned and Mark Harvey will take over for this week at least.
Should be a very good thing!]
Hawthorn @ 1.85 looks good. Besides a host of other stats, it is 2nd v. 11th on the ladder after all.
Still, should be aother low scoring slug fest, despite all the talk about not repeating last meeting's 72-44 game.
The 2 BEST defensive mid-fields in the last 5 games...Hawks allow just 44 I50's (+12), Saints 46 (equal with Geelong...+6)...attack and defense numbers remarkably similar...
St. Kilda's attack and defense both improve significantly in the dome, but Hawthorn's numbers are better still if we take out their interstate games.
Total will be interesting...the under seems the obvious play, but I show at least 172 points, so depending on the number...
West Coast have fallen apart, but how many of their players do they get back this week? Judd looks shot, but looks like playing. Cousins looks like playing, Stenglein, Hanson can't be far away.
Don't really want to get involved in a side...again, the under is the obvious play, but the books will know it.
Carlton allowing 36 shots in their last 5!!! You'd have to think they are no chance to win, but taking Brisbane @ 1.15 doesn't interest me at all.
They've won 3 of the last 6 meetings by 15 or less as BIG favs. Don't really care!
Port have won 8 of last 10 meetings, inc. 40 points at home this year...they've won 7 of 10 @ MCG, inc. 2/2 this year, but 1.30 is a bit tight.
Their D is just not good enough to give big spreads, and I think they can give 14 at the most here...
...not interested...although an over could be on the cards @ 195ish?
Kangas win. -15.5 hopefully. Melbourne look to have thrown it in for the season. Pumped last week. Beat a god-awful Carlton on the scoreboard only (less shots, less I50's), the big Daniher night v. Essendon, pumped by Richmond, and 2 wins in which they were also statistically well beaten!
Davey out.
They lost by just a point first meeting, but 11 less I50's and 5 less shots in that one too!!
Kangas still yet to lose to a team outside the 8.
Def. ML, hopefully can get the spread too.
So, plays so far:
Collingwood/Kangaroos ML double (1.90)
Freo +18.5 (1.91)
Will wait with interest for some totals...
Good luck all
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