4-1 last week.
14-7-1 in own thread.
24-16-1 since first posting in Rd. 10.
Collingwood have dropped right off in their last 5. Gone from av'ing +0 I50's to -5, and defense has gone from 2.03 to 1.95.
Richmond habe dropped away too (if that's possible!) Scoring gone from 2.03 to 2.25, and they are allowing 3 more I50's per game.
Now, having said that, they have played the top 4 teams plus Sydney in that stretch!! Tough run!
The concern I guess, is that Collingwood are comparable to Hawthorn in both numbers and style, and the Hawks beat Richmond by 53 with 21 more I50's.
Collingwood only won by 25 in the first meeting...and Collingwood have not won a game all year by more than 33 points!
Couldn't possibly take the Pies...thinking seriously about the Tiges @ +high 30's.
Brisbane's last 5 games, they've allowed 43 I50's, a shot every 2.31, for about 57 ppg!!! Amazing. It really has been a remarkable few weeks for the Lions, winning the last 5 by an av. of more than 10 goals.
Hawthorn's midfield have been consistantly good this season, but their scoring had dropped off...maybe no coincidence that Franklin and Boyle missed games...but tough to read much into last weeks game v. a terrible Essendon.
Even with the Collingwood game, Brisbane av. just 24 shots away from home this season, so there's every chance the Hawks will try to close this game right down.
Couldn't pick a winner...although I suspect 2.20 for Brisbane is prety attractive.
Looks like a solid under at what I suspect will be a good number.
Could I take Carlton at +40ish? Don't really want to! ...but it does seem excessive.
Obviously Port rely on their forwards to win games, and they have been extremely potent lately (incluiding kicking incredibly accurately!)...definately no reason to suggest Carlton will slow them down, but they should be able to score the other way better than Port's recent opp's. (Melbourne, Richmond, Adelaide...even Essendon)
I think the spread is skewed for a few reasons...obviously people rate Port...thinking "bounce-back" etc. (neither of which I buy into!)...and also Carlton's 3 recent interstate games...all of which might I add, where under Pagan.
Still, the Freo game they actually had +4 I50's...'only' 7 less shots, so the actual result was deceptive.
At Sydney they were pumped, but again, only 12 less shots, and at Brisbane they just plain gave up!
The Blues actually won the first meeting in Melbourne...again the scoreline is a bit deceiving, but all the numbers were quite close...1 less I50, 1 less shot.
Realistically, these are two very similar teams. Should be one almighty shoot-out, and I suspect Carlton can kick a big enough score to keep it close (ish!).
Dogs win, but wouldn't want to lay any more than low 20's...esp. if Johnson sits out.
Dogs 1-39 could be a pretty logical option. Melbourne been blown away lately but by 4 in form teams....the big loss to Richmond recently sends a bit of doubt tho!
Dogs haven't won a game by 40+ all season.
I think Sydney win too, but was hoping for a better price.
St. Kilda have been very poor in games outside the dome...av just 20 shots a game at just over 66ppg...
Would probably have been on Sydney had the game been at the SCG, but the Swans haven't been great at Homebush.
The Swans stats have all been padded by playing some pretty bad teams recently too...-16 or so is just too much for me to take.
Again, looks an obvious low-scorer, but I'm sure the books will have this one covered.
Now, this is the one game I think that has been affected by last weeks results.
True to current form, the Eagles defense was again well below average last week (1.90), and a god-awful 1.70 in the last 5 games.
Not sure how they get to be 1.50 favs on the road, where they av. -3 I50's per game and av. just 24 shots per game.
Forget the game v. a (literally!) half strength Bulldogs...their form is still patchy at best.
Kangas ran into a red-hot Brisbane at home last week, but have won their last 5 at the dome, including wins over Sydney and St. Kilda as 'dogs.
WC with a strong recent head-to-head record, but these teams have met in Mebourne just ONCE since 2000!! West Coast won that game by 4 points as 1.60 favs.
+ a couple of goals looks a decent tet here...or maybe 2.50 for the Kangas if I can get it.
Geelong don't interest me @ 1.20. Had some easy games lately, and there were signs last week of some over-confidence late in the game.
Adelaide are just the type of tough, hard-bodied team that can match Geelong...having said that I'm not sure how they manage to score against this Cat D allowing a shot just every 2.50 entries in their last 5 (19 shots/game)...given the Crows so often struggle to score as it is.
Under 186...but don't like the chances one little bit!
Freo @ 1.14...honstly!!...Any week, let alone after playing "their grand final"!
Even at home this season, they break even in the middle and av. 1 LESS shot per game than their opp...
...Essendon tho have fallen away big time. -9 I50's in theri last 5, allowing 32 shots per game.
Could be tempted by 35ish...but with Lucas in some doubt, and Harvey/Solomon already making it personal, it seems less likely than usual of a let down here.
I guess the good news for the Bombers coming off last weeks 7 goal effort is that Freo are 5th worst D in the last 5 (1.77) better only than Carlton, Melbourne, Richmond and the Eagles!
+35.5 or more with Lucas or no deal!
Good Luck this week guys.
14-7-1 in own thread.
24-16-1 since first posting in Rd. 10.
Collingwood have dropped right off in their last 5. Gone from av'ing +0 I50's to -5, and defense has gone from 2.03 to 1.95.
Richmond habe dropped away too (if that's possible!) Scoring gone from 2.03 to 2.25, and they are allowing 3 more I50's per game.
Now, having said that, they have played the top 4 teams plus Sydney in that stretch!! Tough run!
The concern I guess, is that Collingwood are comparable to Hawthorn in both numbers and style, and the Hawks beat Richmond by 53 with 21 more I50's.
Collingwood only won by 25 in the first meeting...and Collingwood have not won a game all year by more than 33 points!
Couldn't possibly take the Pies...thinking seriously about the Tiges @ +high 30's.
Brisbane's last 5 games, they've allowed 43 I50's, a shot every 2.31, for about 57 ppg!!! Amazing. It really has been a remarkable few weeks for the Lions, winning the last 5 by an av. of more than 10 goals.
Hawthorn's midfield have been consistantly good this season, but their scoring had dropped off...maybe no coincidence that Franklin and Boyle missed games...but tough to read much into last weeks game v. a terrible Essendon.
Even with the Collingwood game, Brisbane av. just 24 shots away from home this season, so there's every chance the Hawks will try to close this game right down.
Couldn't pick a winner...although I suspect 2.20 for Brisbane is prety attractive.
Looks like a solid under at what I suspect will be a good number.
Could I take Carlton at +40ish? Don't really want to! ...but it does seem excessive.
Obviously Port rely on their forwards to win games, and they have been extremely potent lately (incluiding kicking incredibly accurately!)...definately no reason to suggest Carlton will slow them down, but they should be able to score the other way better than Port's recent opp's. (Melbourne, Richmond, Adelaide...even Essendon)
I think the spread is skewed for a few reasons...obviously people rate Port...thinking "bounce-back" etc. (neither of which I buy into!)...and also Carlton's 3 recent interstate games...all of which might I add, where under Pagan.
Still, the Freo game they actually had +4 I50's...'only' 7 less shots, so the actual result was deceptive.
At Sydney they were pumped, but again, only 12 less shots, and at Brisbane they just plain gave up!
The Blues actually won the first meeting in Melbourne...again the scoreline is a bit deceiving, but all the numbers were quite close...1 less I50, 1 less shot.
Realistically, these are two very similar teams. Should be one almighty shoot-out, and I suspect Carlton can kick a big enough score to keep it close (ish!).
Dogs win, but wouldn't want to lay any more than low 20's...esp. if Johnson sits out.
Dogs 1-39 could be a pretty logical option. Melbourne been blown away lately but by 4 in form teams....the big loss to Richmond recently sends a bit of doubt tho!
Dogs haven't won a game by 40+ all season.
I think Sydney win too, but was hoping for a better price.
St. Kilda have been very poor in games outside the dome...av just 20 shots a game at just over 66ppg...
Would probably have been on Sydney had the game been at the SCG, but the Swans haven't been great at Homebush.
The Swans stats have all been padded by playing some pretty bad teams recently too...-16 or so is just too much for me to take.
Again, looks an obvious low-scorer, but I'm sure the books will have this one covered.
Now, this is the one game I think that has been affected by last weeks results.
True to current form, the Eagles defense was again well below average last week (1.90), and a god-awful 1.70 in the last 5 games.
Not sure how they get to be 1.50 favs on the road, where they av. -3 I50's per game and av. just 24 shots per game.
Forget the game v. a (literally!) half strength Bulldogs...their form is still patchy at best.
Kangas ran into a red-hot Brisbane at home last week, but have won their last 5 at the dome, including wins over Sydney and St. Kilda as 'dogs.
WC with a strong recent head-to-head record, but these teams have met in Mebourne just ONCE since 2000!! West Coast won that game by 4 points as 1.60 favs.
+ a couple of goals looks a decent tet here...or maybe 2.50 for the Kangas if I can get it.
Geelong don't interest me @ 1.20. Had some easy games lately, and there were signs last week of some over-confidence late in the game.
Adelaide are just the type of tough, hard-bodied team that can match Geelong...having said that I'm not sure how they manage to score against this Cat D allowing a shot just every 2.50 entries in their last 5 (19 shots/game)...given the Crows so often struggle to score as it is.
Under 186...but don't like the chances one little bit!
Freo @ 1.14...honstly!!...Any week, let alone after playing "their grand final"!
Even at home this season, they break even in the middle and av. 1 LESS shot per game than their opp...
...Essendon tho have fallen away big time. -9 I50's in theri last 5, allowing 32 shots per game.
Could be tempted by 35ish...but with Lucas in some doubt, and Harvey/Solomon already making it personal, it seems less likely than usual of a let down here.
I guess the good news for the Bombers coming off last weeks 7 goal effort is that Freo are 5th worst D in the last 5 (1.77) better only than Carlton, Melbourne, Richmond and the Eagles!
+35.5 or more with Lucas or no deal!
Good Luck this week guys.
Last edited:
