AFL Rd. 4.

[MrChristo]

6-4 (+2.87)

Coops...I saw your question of the Friday night game in last week's thread...now, surely you know as well as I do that 1.70 for the Doggies is ludicrous!! :mj07:
...Seriously, it is pretty good! Was certainly expecting more around the 1.40 mark.
Dogs are flying...av.57 I50's per game (second to Geelong) and a shot every 1.69 entries (2nd to Hawthorn)...topped 30 shots each game so far, and with the Bombers giving up 58 I50's (second worst to Melbourne!!! :scared ) I'm pretty sure things get nasty here.
Bombers were totally outplayed by Carlton last week...51-58 I50's, 29-43 clearances, 109-125 contested possies...just they were MUCH more efficient up forward.
Doggies have won last 3 meetings (2006-07) all as solid favs...(in fact fav has won last 10)...and Lucas has kicked 14 in those 3 games...

Obviously expecting a high scoring game...expect the total to be ~220 mark, which will be tempting.

I always get a bit nervous taking the Doggies as favs (- points), but I do expect them to win at a generous price.

Geelong -24.5...Saints over-rated, Geelong...aren't! :SIB
Saints can't score, just 22 shots last week v. an average Dogs defense. Geelong topped 100 in 9 of last 10...an av. 37 shots, 142 ppg in the Dome since Rd.1 last year!! :scared (in 8 games)
Cats won by 60 last season here..."only" 10 more shots, but still...
Geelong have won their last 7 games at the Dome by an av. 78 points!!...the lowest being 27.

Not as convinced as Pawa about the Kangas...
...they can't score either! Just 70 shots in 3 games...a whole 7 more than Melbourne!
Forward efficiency of 2.11 is 3rd worst, and they were statistically smashed by the Hawks last week.
I guess the good news is that Melbourne are far more like Richmond than Hawthorn! :142smilie
Kangas won by 64 and 1 last season, although the 1 is a bit misleading with 7 more shots and 14 more I50's.
Still, Melbourne have played 3 very good teams so far, just not sure the Kangas are that.
Pretty sure they win, and hopefully cover. :0corn ...but not all that interested myself.

West Coast paying 5.00 for the lowest score of the round...
...Have had 22, 17 and 23 shots so far...last week v. a poor defense in Freo...No Cox, no Priddis...forward efficiency worst in the league (2.40!) had less shots than Melbourne even!!
Av. just 72 ppg in their last 5.
Somehow last meeting saw a points explosion, depsite just 84 total I50's!!...before that av'd just 71 in their previous 7 meetings...
...and scored just 34 in their last trip to ANZ!! :scared
I guess the main worry is a slog down here in Launny...
Oh, pretty sure Swans win, but almost impossible to take such a short price givven the history of these 2...

Now, Brisbane I like too...well, Port I don't like more to the point.
The league's second worst D (1.66) might be just what Brisbane need to get moving after playing 3 solid defensive teams.
Port won at Brisbane last season, but 3 less shots, 7 less I50's 14 less clearances and 26 less contested possessions!! Crazy numbers really.
The Lions have a great record @ AAMI, lost to Adelaide late last year, but before that had won 5 of 9 and not lost by more than 7! (inc. a big win over Port as 2.50 'dogs in 2006)
Port still riding last year's hype, Brisbane under-valued off a (predictable ) loss last week at home.

I also like the Crows to keep it close on Sunday, but will wait for team news, given their injury concerns from last week.
Hawthorn have played 2 bad teams, and struggled to get over the Kanga's last week...Crows on fire, esp. up forward.
Crows lost just one game by more than 12 points in their last 10 (33 @ Geelong)...inc. a 3 point loss to Hawks in Melbourne last year.
Crows have played 3 games down here, and actually beat Hawthorn by 10 points last trip (2005), but were big favs.
Still, Hawthorn have lost their last 2 easily really, and I don't think there's much seperating these 2 teams at the present.

Collingwood and Freo both win, although spreads look to be pretty tight in both cases.
You'd have to think Collingwood 1.28 is good value against a team that has no idea how to win a game of football!!

 

[bombercoops]

Wow! How things have changed since week 1 christo!
You've gone from having absolutely no faith in your doggies to jumping well and truly on the bandwagon! lmao! Only in typical footscray fashion huh! Well, I agree that it will be an absolute shootout considering neither team has any real kind of defense to stop forward traffic. Over looks juicy.

 

[bombercoops]

Going to take a couple of dogs this weekend namely Brisbane and the crows. See 2 tight games here and with a few decent points on offer I'm going to snap em' up and ride the percentages.

Brisbane +14.5 - 1 unit
Adelaide +16.5 - 1 unit

 

[MrChristo]

You can get +15.5 and 17.5 mate...although you'd be stiff for that to happen two weeks in a row... :cursin:

Yeah, like I said last week, I'm just about amazed at our forward line turnaround from the end of last year, and even pre-season...
...and adding Griffen, Hahn, Welsh, Hudson (who has probably been our most important pick-up)...a fit Murphy and Aker from most of last year has been huge.

The only reason Essendon won last week was because Carlton stopped to a walk...almost of their own accord!! The late turnover in the 3rd when they were tryng to run down the clock was a killer...
...in fact the Bombers kicked a goal after the siren in each of the first 3 quarters!! :nono:

Carlton midfield numbers are pretty good (I think as we expected)...comparable to Collingwood's, but the Pies have a big advantage either end.
Pies have won 5 of last 6 meetings, but 3 by 24 or less...Carlton lost 5 of last 10 by 24 or less, and have only lost 2 of last 10 at MCG by more than 24 (30 and 31...both times they kicked badly with same and 1 less shot!)...but Pies going ok.

Was tempted by Richmond when I first saw the line, but they can't score either, and only had 24 shots v. Carlton, so a crappy Freo D won't do much good for them...esp. with Pettifer out.
West Coast are comparable, and Freo held them to only 23 shots.
Tigers do have a decent record in Perth of not getting blown out, but this could be the day! :142smilie

So far I've taken;

Bulldogs/Colligwood ML double [2 units] (2.14)
Geelong -24.5 (1.95)
Brisbane +15.5 (1.93)

...and will be looking closely at Adelaide.

Good luck Coops. :toast:

 

[bombercoops]

Thanks mate. Was also looking at the tigers but for the same reason refrained from puting any kind of faith in the team that has probably cost us all the most $$ in the past few years. Would have to feel that this is the week freo get the big win and start going forward for the year (nothing against their win last week tho).
GL with your plays this week too C. I bet you're on adelaide by game time..........hard to resist a strong lean when you're looking for a nice afternoon sweat on the couch! :00hour

 

[MrChristo]

Hope you jumped on the Doggies boys...

...Lloyd OUT. :0corn

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Yeah I'll cop $1.92 for Doggies/Pies double :0corn

Big hole now in Essendon's attack.....or should I say bigger hole!!

 

[bombercoops]

Didn't react to Lloyd being out until I checked my sources........just in case you guys were jacking with me! lol! Wow, dogs definitely the play and should roll easily with both key forwards on the sidelines. Pies/dogs double looks very nice indeed fellas. Gl with it.

 

[MrChristo]

Anyway...talked myself into taking the Crows again this week. (4 from 4)...
Griffen, Bassett and Porplyzia all look like playing.
Interesting that Bassett was missing from the final last year that the Hawks stormed home to win by 3 points, with Franklin kicking 7 (8?). He looks to be a key component this week.

What really got me over the line was all this "Tassie fortress" talk...
...Hawthorn have lost their last 2 down here, and it seems that teams are getting used to the big ground...either from experience, or maybe training simulating...or just good old video...

Hawthorn won 5 games in a row from the start of the 2006 season, but had just a 2, 1, 7, -1 and 0 shot margin...they kicked 65-57 (53%) to their opp's 42-71 (37%)!
The last 2 games (losses) they've given up 28 and 27 shots @ 28.27!

The Crows started in similar fashion...kicked 12.19 (38%) first game here, but 22.14 since @ 61%

Amazing really...possibly all quite meaningless, but amazing none-the-less! :mj07:

Adelaide +17.5

 

[bombercoops]

:00x25 :00x32 :00x4 - headless! Frustrating final quarter.......well for me anyways christo. I'm sure you loved it!

 

[UT-Longhorn]

tell me fellas, for my ML parlay, what AFL team should I take this weekend on the ML to put into my Parlay? Who has the best chance to win this weekend?

 

[MrChristo]

You missed out on the best one last night UT...(Dogs were 1.70 early)

A lot of big favs from here in...I've got Collingwood (1.30ish) on the tail end of mine.
Reasonably short priced, but really do look winners (given Carlton have lost 15 straight games! :mj07: )

Basically I think if you steer clear of the Port/Brisbane and Hawthorn/Adelaide games, the rest of the favs look winners...if not at overly tempting prices.


Yeah, bit of a combination of you guys running out of legs, and our boys finally showing a bit of desperation in that last quarter Coops.
Think it was something like 8 or 9 clearances to 1!

Oh, and if Hille or Laycock want any advice on playing forward and kicking crucial goals, Big Willy will be taking questions all week! :142smilie

Not all that convincing, but big win for us. Richmond next week really should see us 5-0. :drinky:

 

[MrChristo]

Sydney v. West Coast under 169.5 [2.15 @ Lasetters]

Maybe an over-reation to last year's shoot-out in Perth...or maybe even Adelaide's 133 point effort, but 21.7?! Come on...
WC have topped 169 just once in their last 5 games, thanks to that rediculous Crows effort!
Swans have been under this number 2 of 3 this season, and are holding teams to 66 ppg.
Eagles just can't score, as mentioned earlier.
Before last year's 212 point game (on just 84 I50's remember ) they had played 9 straight games of 169 or less, and the last 10 have av'd just 150.
Obviously the ground's a big factor too. Big and round out at Stadium Oz...4 of last 5 Swans games have gone under this (Av. 157, but 4 were 147 or less!)...
...West Coast have played there twice for games of 109 and 147.
Eagles surely know they can't possibly win a shoot-out here, Swans always play it tight, and love running out the clock where-ever possible!
Nice number, big price.

 

[MrChristo]

Thinking about buying back the Crows, which is ok given they are down to -13 at a lot of places...

...but given Port's massive fade out (Go Lions! :00hour ) last week's home town clash could be a concern. :shrug:

 

[bombercoops]

:scared Wow, what a gag by port! Thought the back door cover may have been possible heading into the last qtr but an outright 20 point win.....well, none us would have seen that coming. Ching-ching!!

 

[MrChristo]

Did you get to see the game Coops?

Was the most bizarre game I think I've ever seen!!

Brisbane were just AWFUL early, but the scores were 8.3 to 3.7 at one stage, and I remember thinking how they were still a chance...
...3 or 4 mistakes lead to Port goals, and I, like you was hoping for nothing more than a late cover...
...with 5 seconds left in the first half Brisbane had the ball deep in defense, but Travis (I can't believe I was ever a no. 1 draft pick!) Johnstone poked a 30m pass straight to Pierce who goaled after the siren and all seemed a bit lost.

Decent start to the 3rd, ended up with Notting about 40 out, not a huge angle...doesn't even have a shot!! Tries to pass it sideways, gets picked off and Port race down and goal...
...getting angry now...

...then, the great 2008 umpire swindle!! Chad Cornes let one fly from 70, which cleared the pack...bounced, bounced...then a massive leg break which would have seen the ball hit the centre of the post...except the goal umpire was in the way!! Hit him fair in the cods ** and as he tried to get out of the way, knocked the ball through for a goal!!
Technically/legally the goal was the correct goal, but clearly common sense was thrown out the window...just like the umpires career!

(** A couple of great commentary calls too...Oh, it did hit the stick! ...and, I bet he's happy it wasn't a cricket ball!)

Obviously things are just getting funny know...Port out to an 8 goal lead late in the 3rd, and to top it off some of the heaviest rain I've ever seen starts BELTING down...without exageration I could barely make out the players on tv!
Brisbane no chance at all...

...until of course they storm home with a 9.6 to 1.1 final quarter!! :mj07: :00hour

Pretty sure the rain had a fair bit to do with it...Brisbane's skill level was terrible...the wet ball brought Port back to their level, and Brisbane were more desperate in the packs.

BUT, I can't help but think last week's Showdown might have been a factor.
Making me nervous about the Crows today...
...although they do have a remarkably good record after the Port game. :shrug:

Line down to -13 at places (due to Mitchell missing), so tempted to buy back and hope for a (fairly unlikely!) middle.

Weather here is ok. Some clouds building up, but don't reckon there's any rain about. No wind at all.
Should be a good game either way...and close...we hope! :SIB

(Would love the Crows to win tho, surely not many people tipped both Brisbane and Adelaide?)

 

[jer-z jock]

Thanks alot Mr. Christo.....appreciate your efforts and hard work:00hour :00hour :00hour Bold type is easy way of finding THE PLAYS and thaks to all who effort in this forum as you guys seem to know an awful lot about it, fun for me( a guy who wouldnt know a players name or team colors) to read thru everything and try to piece together what this is all about, and even get to catch a few games (still a bit confusing but coming along) on the CPU at a certain site that carries these games for free!!!!! Keep up the good work!!!!

 

[bombercoops]

No, didn't get a chance to watch the brissy/port game christo but would have enjoyed watching port get pumped in the last qtr. Funny how quickly a match can swing huh! Doesn't happen like that much but when it does, and you're on the right side of the bet.....well, it's all good i guess. :00hour
Watched a little of the swans/coasters game tho and it seems the boys from the west are missing cousins and judd in a large way. Need some help getting back on track!