12-11 (+0.85)
Carlton have lost their last 10 over there by an av. of 51 points!...but, of course, have been BIG odds in all of those games, so a bit irrelevant really.
Neither team can score...Not sure which one is worse, Carlton's 26 shots v. Melbourne or Eagles 19 v. Dogs last week!
Eagles' have been far better at home tho...49 I50's for and against...although obviously Kerr and Priddis out hurt that...
Stat's do say that the Blues are more likey to score once it's up there tho, so with very similar D's and a slight edge to the Carlton midfield, I think Carlton are probably deserved favs...You've be brave to take the 1.60 tho I think...
Geelong definately aren't going that well...but Lions haven't been great either (forget last week!).
Spread looks about right...but I'll definately be looking for an under.
Geelong allow just 42 I50's at home, and they've got the 2nd best D behind Sydney...who the Lions had just 21 shots against at home.
Geelong have allowed 82+ points just once in their last 9 at home, and Brisbane have been awful down there...last 2 years scoring 35 and 38 (although it rained last year).
5 meetings there since 2002 haven't topped 170 and av'd 153.
Brisbane been in a few hgh scoring games lately, could get an inflated total here...
Very tempted by Collingwood +15.5 or so...maybe more-so the over...
Hawthorn have been winning games by strangling teams, allowing just 41 I50's per game!! (The lowest by about 5!)...but their D remains a bit leaky, with only Richmond, Freo, Melbourne, Port worse on the season.
Collingwood are the second best team for I50's (behind Bulldogs) @ 57 per game, so they should prove to be a far harder team to pin down than the 6 Hawthorn have played so far.
And, depsite their start, the Hawks have only won 2 games by more than 16 points; Melbourne and a very flat Crows @ Tassie.
Collingwood are leaking points themselves tho, have held teams that can't score (Freo, Rich, Carl, Ess) but gave up 31 and 32 shots @ Brisbane & Kangas...
...Hawks had at least 27 in every game @ 33!...and are the number 1 team up forward @ 1.61 entries per shot.
Collingwood lost by 8 last year, depsite having 27 shots (no Rocca either), but were actually -5 I50's...if Hawthorn have 54 entries this year they'll kick a monster.
Might consider +16.5 or better, but will definately be looking over.
This is the game I was most looking forward to, but the books have been smarter than I thought! Richmond were PUMPED last week!!...Just 33 I50's (world record low?) to 57...17 less shots, but by some wonky kicking miracle kept the game close!
2 weeks in a row now been lucky (were statistically poor v. Dogs too)...which leaves them with just 1 good win for the season (@ Freo).
Saints were predictably bad last week...against a real bogey team for them, outdoors, not great conditions, were always going to struggle to score...
...but back in the Dome, off a big win v. Ess, and a quality performance v. Geelong...Richmond 4th leakiest D in the league...
You wouldn't think there was any way in the world the Tiges could keep up their current accurancy...35.14 in the last 2 weeks!
Still, despite winning both games comfortably statistically last year, the margins were just 10 (MCG) and 17 (Dome) to the Saints, so the lack of finishing power is still a concern.
I think they opened ~1.45...now up to a more respectable 1.60 (13.5ish)
Pretty sure the Sainsts win, but not sure I could risk the line.
Like the Crows @ 1.50 aswell. Amazingly good defense at home, allowing a shot every 2.23 entries, and have won their last 6 there.
Crows have won last 6 meetings too...last year in Canberra by 46, and home in 2006 by 72.
Kangas were awful on the road last year...lost by 16 @ Port (8 less shots, -14 I50's), 66 @ WC, beat Freo by 4 points, but 1 less shot and -7 I50's, 37 @ Brisbane and a million @ Port in the finals.
Adelaide midfield hasn't been great so far, but a much improved effort last week (inclusion of Knights?)...and take out the Kanga's game v. Melbourne and their's ain't so flash either.
Crows with a massive advantage up forward (1.63 at home!), and Roos going into this one without Edwards...although Rutten ?? for Crows...still not sure how they score enough to win.
Two Crows home games have both come within 1/2 point of the spread!...the way they iced the Freo game has made me a bit gun-shy I think, but 1.50 looks nice either way.
Will be looking at under 190ish too...
Dogs @ Sydney. Don't know. Refuse to comment!
Number 1 team for I50's and scoring up against one of the best home teams in the AFL...
Dogs lost last 5 (all @ SCG/Canberra) by av. of near 6 goals, lowest 14...2 reasons; 1, they (and probably the small ground) tend to be able to bottle us up...and 2, the score there!! Swans have won 9 of their last 10 at home (1 loss by 1 point!) and av'd over 121 ppg!! Their LOWEST win has been 27 an av. of 50!!
Impossible to go against them here I think, but Dogs in some pretty good form...Kicked 120+ v. St. Kilda and Crows...NFI.
2 road favs to finish...Pretty sure it's safe to go against Melbourne and Essendon for a while yet.
Both allowing over 60 I50's!! No Lucas, Davey...Lloyd clearly struggling, getting harder and harder each week to find a score.
Port still haven't had 50 I50's in a game, but played some pretty tough teams I guess...certainly no-one this loose!
Won by 31 at home last year, 60 in 2006 @ the Dome as 2.65 'dogs...
Melbourne worse still. 0-6. Lowest loss by 30. Freo good last week, still struggling to score, but having 60+ I50's will solve that! Besides, Melbourne allowing a shot every 1.72 entries.
Freo won 6 of last 10 @ MCG...inc. 45 points v. Melbouurne last year.
Looks like a few this week...
Carlton have lost their last 10 over there by an av. of 51 points!...but, of course, have been BIG odds in all of those games, so a bit irrelevant really.
Neither team can score...Not sure which one is worse, Carlton's 26 shots v. Melbourne or Eagles 19 v. Dogs last week!
Eagles' have been far better at home tho...49 I50's for and against...although obviously Kerr and Priddis out hurt that...
Stat's do say that the Blues are more likey to score once it's up there tho, so with very similar D's and a slight edge to the Carlton midfield, I think Carlton are probably deserved favs...You've be brave to take the 1.60 tho I think...
Geelong definately aren't going that well...but Lions haven't been great either (forget last week!).
Spread looks about right...but I'll definately be looking for an under.
Geelong allow just 42 I50's at home, and they've got the 2nd best D behind Sydney...who the Lions had just 21 shots against at home.
Geelong have allowed 82+ points just once in their last 9 at home, and Brisbane have been awful down there...last 2 years scoring 35 and 38 (although it rained last year).
5 meetings there since 2002 haven't topped 170 and av'd 153.
Brisbane been in a few hgh scoring games lately, could get an inflated total here...
Very tempted by Collingwood +15.5 or so...maybe more-so the over...
Hawthorn have been winning games by strangling teams, allowing just 41 I50's per game!! (The lowest by about 5!)...but their D remains a bit leaky, with only Richmond, Freo, Melbourne, Port worse on the season.
Collingwood are the second best team for I50's (behind Bulldogs) @ 57 per game, so they should prove to be a far harder team to pin down than the 6 Hawthorn have played so far.
And, depsite their start, the Hawks have only won 2 games by more than 16 points; Melbourne and a very flat Crows @ Tassie.
Collingwood are leaking points themselves tho, have held teams that can't score (Freo, Rich, Carl, Ess) but gave up 31 and 32 shots @ Brisbane & Kangas...
...Hawks had at least 27 in every game @ 33!...and are the number 1 team up forward @ 1.61 entries per shot.
Collingwood lost by 8 last year, depsite having 27 shots (no Rocca either), but were actually -5 I50's...if Hawthorn have 54 entries this year they'll kick a monster.
Might consider +16.5 or better, but will definately be looking over.
This is the game I was most looking forward to, but the books have been smarter than I thought! Richmond were PUMPED last week!!...Just 33 I50's (world record low?) to 57...17 less shots, but by some wonky kicking miracle kept the game close!
2 weeks in a row now been lucky (were statistically poor v. Dogs too)...which leaves them with just 1 good win for the season (@ Freo).
Saints were predictably bad last week...against a real bogey team for them, outdoors, not great conditions, were always going to struggle to score...
...but back in the Dome, off a big win v. Ess, and a quality performance v. Geelong...Richmond 4th leakiest D in the league...
You wouldn't think there was any way in the world the Tiges could keep up their current accurancy...35.14 in the last 2 weeks!
Still, despite winning both games comfortably statistically last year, the margins were just 10 (MCG) and 17 (Dome) to the Saints, so the lack of finishing power is still a concern.
I think they opened ~1.45...now up to a more respectable 1.60 (13.5ish)
Pretty sure the Sainsts win, but not sure I could risk the line.
Like the Crows @ 1.50 aswell. Amazingly good defense at home, allowing a shot every 2.23 entries, and have won their last 6 there.
Crows have won last 6 meetings too...last year in Canberra by 46, and home in 2006 by 72.
Kangas were awful on the road last year...lost by 16 @ Port (8 less shots, -14 I50's), 66 @ WC, beat Freo by 4 points, but 1 less shot and -7 I50's, 37 @ Brisbane and a million @ Port in the finals.
Adelaide midfield hasn't been great so far, but a much improved effort last week (inclusion of Knights?)...and take out the Kanga's game v. Melbourne and their's ain't so flash either.
Crows with a massive advantage up forward (1.63 at home!), and Roos going into this one without Edwards...although Rutten ?? for Crows...still not sure how they score enough to win.
Two Crows home games have both come within 1/2 point of the spread!...the way they iced the Freo game has made me a bit gun-shy I think, but 1.50 looks nice either way.
Will be looking at under 190ish too...
Dogs @ Sydney. Don't know. Refuse to comment!
Number 1 team for I50's and scoring up against one of the best home teams in the AFL...
Dogs lost last 5 (all @ SCG/Canberra) by av. of near 6 goals, lowest 14...2 reasons; 1, they (and probably the small ground) tend to be able to bottle us up...and 2, the score there!! Swans have won 9 of their last 10 at home (1 loss by 1 point!) and av'd over 121 ppg!! Their LOWEST win has been 27 an av. of 50!!
Impossible to go against them here I think, but Dogs in some pretty good form...Kicked 120+ v. St. Kilda and Crows...NFI.
2 road favs to finish...Pretty sure it's safe to go against Melbourne and Essendon for a while yet.
Both allowing over 60 I50's!! No Lucas, Davey...Lloyd clearly struggling, getting harder and harder each week to find a score.
Port still haven't had 50 I50's in a game, but played some pretty tough teams I guess...certainly no-one this loose!
Won by 31 at home last year, 60 in 2006 @ the Dome as 2.65 'dogs...
Melbourne worse still. 0-6. Lowest loss by 30. Freo good last week, still struggling to score, but having 60+ I50's will solve that! Besides, Melbourne allowing a shot every 1.72 entries.
Freo won 6 of last 10 @ MCG...inc. 45 points v. Melbouurne last year.
Looks like a few this week...
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