AFL......Round 19

PAWAQATSI

Kangaroos
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Season to date 36-33 @ 52%

Climbing back on the horse this week and taking Carlton +46.5 v Port Adelaide Yes... the Blues are atrocious...but playing at home has to help them get under the number (surely!). Port losing to my Kangaroos at the same ground just 3 weeks ago. This place doesn't give them the room to get into the open spaces as they prefer. Surely the Blues will have learnt from that game and use the same "man on man" tactics to at least stay within the points. Two teams failed to cover last week when offered +39 or more to take this seasons record to 7 from 11 wins with the start. 3 failures in a row?? not likely! Give Carlton another chance.

Fremantle travel east to take on Richmond at the MCG on Saturday arvo. Freo, yet to win away from home, will need more than the meagre +8.5 on offer to save them from defeat. Even though the Tigers have been going through a bad patch recently, expect last weeks win to spur them on to another. Take Richmond -8.5 v Fremantle

On Saturday night the Kangaroos travel north to take on Sydney at the SCG having played and lost there on the last four encounters. Sydney lift for this game and receiving 3 goals start at home is too much to pass up. Take Sydney +18.5 v Kangaroos (will have to tape this one as I have an appointment with Triple H and the Rock at Colonial Stadium
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On Sunday Essendon travel over to meet Adelaide at Football Park. Adelaide always hard to beat on their own dung heap and generally four goals better there. Essendon have struggled of late and are a good chance to miss the finals for the first time in many years. They have failed to win a line with my book for the last ten weeks straight. Chalk this up as number eleven!! Ayres will have his team pumped up as his job is on the line. Take Adelaide -15.5 v Essendon

Melbourne take the long flight over to Perth to take on West Coast who are still undefeated at home this season. Melbourne do travel better than other teams so I'm not so sure about the +19.5 start that they are handed. Will expect them to put up a good fight but ultimately go down in the end. TakeWest Coast Under 39.5 points @ $2.30

Alot of tipsters suggesting that St.Kilda can roll Geelong in an upset. The Cats sitting in the top 6 on merit, with 2 losses in succsession a slight hic-cup. I'm going against the flow here by taking Geelong -15.5 v St.Kilda and even having a half unit on the masacre Geelong Over 39.5 points @ $3.50

Geez....I've had a crack at a few haven't I?!!
Strongest leans are for Richmond, Adelaide and Sydney plays.

My mech system couldn't decide on anything concrete this week so no picks from it.

Good punting fellas and.....




LET'S GET READY TO RUMBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALLLLLL!!
 
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MrChristo

The Zapper
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Sexlexia...
I know it's nearly too late now (I couldn't log in for last day for some reason :shrug: )....but I'm very dubious about Richmond.

They won't have the same forward line advantage they did last week against the undersized Demons, and their midfield is still SHIT!!!

Freo's away form (Bad..YES!!), but excusable IMO.

They're a bit like Port, i that they don't like smaller grounds, and like to usse the space to run and it also plays into their strength as being one of the fitest clubs.

Last 2 away games on big grounds......Hawthorn...lost by 10 (York Park...Just up the road from me ;))
Lost by 1 to the Kanga's in Canberra.

Warm day in Melbourne....Richmond fade late and I won't at all be surprised to see Freo run over them.

(I've picked them to win....but not confident enough to bet either way.)

Geelong have somne injury worries....Graham and Lord are expected NOT to play. Gotta agree tho, don't really know why about 70% of people are on Saints :shrug:

As for the MECH....I felt positive that one game would be a MECH bet. You've got it anyway, but I'm a bit surprised, given your 'alliances' ;)

Christ!!!...Best of luck with Carlton :D :D :D

Hope you have a good one ;)

Go DOGGIES! :cool:
 

PAWAQATSI

Kangaroos
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3 from 3 so far with Carlton, after scoring their lowest halftime score in 101 years (4 points), fighting back to only go down to Port by 8 points. Richmond powering away from Fremantle in the second half. Sydney, after struggling to keep up with my Kangaroos for 3 quarters, kick 10 goals to 1 in the last and end up flogging my boys by plenty!! Bastards!!!

At least they paid for my wrestling tickets !!

:D
 

MrChristo

The Zapper
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Sexlexia...
Great work so far, PAW.
A nice 3 unit night for Beast too :p

I was WAY off with Freo....Richo again!

Without wanting to get on the wrong side of any Gambling Gods that may be listening, but.....I'd been sweating on the Sydney game since last Monday morning when I first saw the odds.
Sydney +15 or more was quite possibly the easiest decision of the year. That's why I was hugely surprised that the Mech didn't go with it....But glad to see everyone was on them ;)

Having said that, of course, I still can't believe that Sydney rattled on 10 goals in the last!!

Great call on Carlton and Brisbane guys.

I've got an Adelaide/West Coast double to finish the weekend off....so hopefully we can sweep Rd. 19 :cool:

Good luck all!
 

PAWAQATSI

Kangaroos
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4 - 2 for the weekend with Adelaide cruising in. West Coast and Geelong looking good at three quarter time only to fold in the last. I was right about Melbourne travelling well !!! The first interstate team to roll the Eagles at home this year. They cost me a quady paying 8s :mad:

Well done Craig ;)

Roll on round 20....

PAWA (as in Port, not maa and paa!!)
 

MrChristo

The Zapper
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Sexlexia...
Sorry PAWA, no offence intended.....Just lazy, try to type as little as possible.
(I did mean it to be 'poor'....as in saw, jaw, Raw is War!)
Hell, you're the last guy I want to upset after going to the rasslin' Saturday night :D

Some early prices looked too good to be true.....

Freo 1.65
Kangaroos 1.70 :eek: :eek:

Long gone now......I missed out! :(
 
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PAWAQATSI

Kangaroos
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No worries MrC....I'm still a bit shirty after staying up and watching the tape of my insipid Kangaroos going to sleep in the last qtr against the Swans. I don't usually recover from that kind of drubbing until about Tuesday!!

Can't believe those prices were on offer. Nice if you're quick enough. I'm beginning to think that the 9s on offer for Adelaide is a bit tempting for interests sake. If they get over Port on the weekend, 3 from 3 is possible going into the finals. Their price will be slashed by then. No value in Bris or Port IMO. What's your view?? :shrug:
 
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MrChristo

The Zapper
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Sexlexia...
I know how you feel mate......Been known to sleep in the spare room the night after a Doggies loss :rolleyes:

In fact I had to go for a drive on Sunday because the Lounge room and it's contents were in severe danger watching the Eagles crumble :mad:

Personally, I don't think you can go passed Brisbane for the flag.
2.10 is generous IMO, but of course it would be silly to take those odds now.
The option then is to pick the team that will play them in the Grandy for a good hedging ;)

I agree we can discount Pawat :)D :D :D )
I think we can also discount Collingwood. (too slow on the MCG)

I definately think you're on the mark with Adelaide, but Goodwin and Ricciuto out this week they may struggle...Might be best to leave them for a while (Unless you think they'll win this week of course ;))
For a real roughy, I personally don't mind the look of Hawthorn @ 25/1.
I think they can win the last 3 and make the finals. They would then likely face Melbourne/Geelong/Kangaroos in the first week...all winnable games. So long as they can avoid Brissy until the Final I think they can go all the way ;)
 

PAWAQATSI

Kangaroos
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Dec 8, 2001
1,874
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the land of confusion
The Hawks huh?...
Personally don't think they'll make the cut but at 25s worth a small dabble. I guess they are one team that is capable of playing better footy. Crows coming in a bit already!
 
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