AFL Week 3.

[MrChristo]

4-3 ...+1.46

Bulldogs 1.80!!!

What a rediculous price!!!!
It's not April Fools, and it's not Christmas, so I'm lost!
But, it's ok to be lost so long as you are carrying a ticket for Richmond to lose, I always say! :mj14:

 

[bombercoops]

Looks very appealing christo. However, the dogs are very liable and capable of keeping Richmond in the contest here. I can't remember the last time we didn't earn our money betting on the dogs. You sound confident of a solid win here mate. Might have to take a ride with you on this one and put some faith back in to the boys from footscray now that Eade is at the helm.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

How keen is Christo??!!

The dust has hardly settled from Round 2!! :142lmao:

Must be confident!!......



....hang on......wait a second.....



.......Where's the phone and my bookie's number?? :idea:

 

[MrChristo]

I know there's no point exaplining an anti-Richmond bet, but check ths out...
Richmond 47 inside 50's...Hawthorn 54!
Richmond 23 scoring shots..Hawthorn 29.

I've said it before, I'll probably say it every week this season!!...Richmond's defense is god-awful, and Wallace most definately isn't the coach to turn that around.
Doggies had 60 inside 50's v. Melbourne and 36 shots!!

Will also be on 'over' whatever total Centrebet can throw at me, and Doggies @ 8.00 for the highest team score @ TOTE looks pretty tasty aswell.

 

[MrChristo]

Sydney +20.5

Sydney have a very good recent record against the Lions, winning 3 of the last 5, including @ Brisbane in 2003, and a 2 point loss @ Brisbane last season, and a 32 point win @ Sydney last season.
In the 2 point loss @ Brisbane, the Lions kicked only 11 goals...5 of which came from players who won't be playing in this game, so they should struggle to score against this tough Sydney defense.
Sydney are very efficient in their forward line, having a shot at goal every 1.62 times they enter their 50, which is the best in the League after 2 weeks.
Sydney are a real chance for an upset here, and 20 points looks generous.

Adelaide +19.5

The local derby b/w Adelaide and Port Adelaide is always close. In the last 7 meetings (since 2001) Port's greatest winning margin is 25 points last season, on their way to winning the Premiership.
Currently missing from their team on that day are:
Peter Burgoine, 25 possessions. (suspended)
Josh Carr, 26 possies and 6 tackles (Freo)
Byron Pickett, 12 possies and a goal (suspended)
Also Hardwick, Schofield and Shaun Burgoine.

Neither team has started the season in any great form, but amazingly Adelaide have had more (1) shots at goal and only 2 less inside 50's than Port.
They've also rebounded better, converted chances better and had more clearances!
Again, 19 points here looks very generous indeed.

Essendon/Carlton double (1.97)

Both teams playing very poor opposition. Great odds, particularly Carlton @ ~1.50!

 

[MrChristo]

Doggies highest score for the round....7.00 @ TOTE! (1/2 unit)

Richmond's defense is absolutely terrible.
Last year they allowed the second most points (only Dogs worse!) and they allowed the highest score in 5 games, 1 second most (allowed 138!) and 1 third most (128).
This year they've already allowed Geelong 160 and Hawthorn had 29 shots which was the 4th most last round.
Bulldogs have had 68 shots at goal in the first 2 games which is the most (Melbourne 65, Geelong 57).
Even if they only manage 50% kicking they're gunna kick a ****ing whopping score!!....Plus it's in the dome...Rain forecast in Perth, wind in Melbourne and Adelaide, and neither Sydney or Brisbane will go too silly you'd think.

 

[bombercoops]

Like the sydney play 'C'. May follow you with that one mate. Surely essendon can get a win this weekend also. The dons/blues double should go alright mate.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Money is coming for my Roos +points this week versus St.Kilda.

I know I have doubted them the first two weeks but I can't help but think that the Saints will smack us by more than the two goal spread!! They torched us twice last season and I think they cover easily this week.

What is the impartial view out there?? :shrug:



Have I just lost my faith in the Kangas?!!

 

[Cartman88]

Very keen on Melbourne - they have looked one of the more impressive sides to date - only beaten Essendon and Wstn Bulldogs but have been convincing - Neitz playing his 250th should give some extra motivation - also like the fact Geelong are travelling back from WA which would have limited their preparation.

Melbourne $1.78 vs Geelong (2 units)

As Pawa said some money has come in for the Kangaroos - I think St Kilda are worth backing now giving less than 2 goals and back at Telstra Dome where they play there best footy - have to be concerned with St Kilda's injuries but I reckon they are good enough to cover the spread.

St Kilda -11.5 vs Kangaroos

Have a lean on Collingwood +17.5 but not enough to pull the trigger - must say I am still far from convinced about Carlton though.

Staying clear of the Brisbane game - I think Sydney are set to go backwards this year but based on recent years they seem to match up well against Brisbane.

Really like West Coast - played at home last week compared with Freo who are travelling back after a tough Sunday match in Tassie and a heartbreaking loss - being a derby will stay safe and take the outright price rather than the line - but I fully expect West Coast to show why they will be a Top 4 side this year.

West Coast $1.75 vs Fremantle (2 units)

Still having a look through the Sunday matches - was planning to be all over Port Adelaide but disappointed with the line which I thought might be a few points closer.

Don't normally bet on the exotics but I agree with Christo about the Wstn Bulldogs this week - they should kick a big score at the Dome (over 120 points) and with some of the bad weather forecast I do not expect many teams to get close - my main concern is St Kilda so I will have a small saver on them - only book I have with this market is the TAB so I need to take a slightly reduced price.

Wstn Bulldogs to kick the Highest Score @ $6.00 (1 unit)
St Kilda to kick the Highest Score @ $7.50 (0.5 units)

 

[bombercoops]

I too am leaning towards the pies this week cartman. I see value in them getting that many points and as we have seen in the past, anything is capable of happening between these 2 outfits when they meet. Will see what the line does until game time.

 

[MrChristo]

Just one note on Freo, bomber.

They got a direct flight to and from Launceston last week, so it was 'only' a 4 hour trip, rather than the 6 or 7 if connecting through Melbourne.
I think I'm starting to really like the Dockers here. 50/50 game at best...Hopefully they can sneak out to 2.20...

 

[bombercoops]

I think you meant to direct that at cartman, christo. I'm staying away from the west coast derby from a punting standpoint and just going to sit back and enjoy what should be a great clash. Penciling sydney in as a play along with the pies, both plus the points. Dees/cats should be a good one to watch tonight also.

 

[bombercoops]

BTW, where do you live on the coast cartman if you don't mind me asking??

 

[MrChristo]

I think you meant to direct that at cartman, christo. I'm staying away from the west coast derby from a punting standpoint and just going to sit back and enjoy what should be a great clash. Penciling sydney in as a play along with the pies, both plus the points. Dees/cats should be a good one to watch tonight also.

So I was, bomber! Sorry, guys!

But, while I'm on the subject....

Fremantle WIN (2.28 @ Pinnacle)


Much like backing Hawthorn last week, the price is dictating this bet rather than any certainty of winning.
I've got no idea why Pinnacle have priced Fremantle this highly...They are mostly 2.10 here in Australia, but even that is generous in what is a 50/50 game.
West Coast seem to be everyone's golden team atm, but their start to the season (depite being 2-0) has hardly been impressive.
The two teams' midfields are both quality, but I believe Fremantle have the advantage at both ends of the ground, esp. now with Pavlich @ CHF.
The two teams stats are almost identical, so there's definately value here with what is really a massive price.


Dogs @ 1.80
Sydney +20.5
Adelaide +19.5
Carlton/Ess @ 1.97
Freo @ 2.28
1/2 Dogs highest score @ 7.00

Big weekend for me. Going to a wedding tomorrow night so I'm going to miss all of Saturday's games :cursin:
Hopefully will be home in time to watch the Doggies game.
Good luck everyone. :toast:

 

[beast2]

2-3 for -1.2 Units

Round 3 Plays
Melbourne -7.5 d Geelong
Geelong have bad record in the last 10 years the week after travelling.

Brisbane -19.5 d Sydney
Just expect Brisbane to win this easily.

West Coast -6.5 d Fremantle
After one of the longest trips in footy going from WA to Tasmania Freo have to back up in a local derby. West Coast have had the advantage of an extra day and so are a must play at this spread.

Adelaide +18.5 d Port
While I think Port will win I think this may be a close showdown and will take the points with Adelaide.

Other games:
Carlton - Collingwood
Carlton have burnt me the last two weeks so I will give them a miss this week.

St Kilda - Kangaroos
The spread looks right to me.

Essendon - Hawthorn
Can find no reason to back either team with confidence at the points.

Bulldogs - Richmond
I like Bulldogs in this game but something tells me this could be one of those games where they kick inaccurately like 7.22 and blow what should be a win.

Craig

 

[MrChristo]

Melbourne -7.5 d Geelong
Geelong have bad record in the last 10 years the week after travelling.

Rd. 3 @ Sydney...Rd 4. Geelong 127 Richmond 78

Rd. 5 @ Subi...Rd 6. Geelong 101 Adelaide 58

Rd. 10 @ AAMI...Rd. 11. Geelong 113 Dogs 67

Rd. 14 @ Subi...Rd. 15. Geelong 94 Collingwood 65

Rd. 21 @ AAMI...Rd. 22. Geelong 123 Hawthron 58!

:shocked:

Not a bad record last year tho, beast!

 

[Gorbortrov]

Hi everyone, good forum you've got here.

Like the Kangas +

I think Saints will win it despite the tall timber being out. They'll get first use of the ball which'll mean more inside 50s and between Hamil, Gehrig and Milne they will score well. Milne loves playing the Roos cos Makey is pretty unaccountable so i
feel this game will be a pretty close, both have good defences.

1 Unit

I like the Sydney bet Mr.Christo.

 

[Cartman88]

Bomber - not sure how well you know the Gold Coast but I live a few minutes away from Robina (which is about 15 mins from Surfers Paradise).

 

[bombercoops]

I live in Brisbane cartman and work on the gold coast at the moment. I know the place very well and was actually working in Robina last week. You couldn't find a better place to live than the coast IMO. Beautiful one day, perfect the next!
Don't say this often but, up the pies today!

 

[bombercoops]

Don't know how many of you guys saw the the wakelin mark that was called 'held in and under' which gave whitnall an easy goal the other way but I thought it may have been the undoing of my collingwood line today. Great comeback by both teams and I'm sure you're going to have plenty to say about your roos later pawa. Roos looking very good early in the season and looking forward to seeing if they can keep it together throughout the season.
Record: 2-2 with sydney tonight