2003 AL Central Preview
Another year may have come off the calendar, but the AL Central looks to be as lackluster as usual. Not once in the 8-year history of the division has it ever produced the AL's wild card representative, and this year doesn't figure to be any different. Don't get me wrong; the division has improved. But it still falls short of the AL's other two divisions.
In any event, the final standings for 2003 in the AL Central, as I see them:
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
Let's take a brief look at each team.
After taking the division by storm in 2000, the White Sox have spent the last two seasons wallowing in mediocrity. That figures to change in 2003, as the White Sox have beefed up their starting rotation considerably with the addition of Bartolo Colon, an excellent starter and near-ace. With Mark Buehrle backing him up, along with holdovers Jon Garland and Dan Wright, the Sox' starting pitching will likely be much improved. Wright doesn't figure to get much better but Garland should continue to improve. The final difference may only be 4-8 games in the won-lost column, but that should be enough to help the White Sox win the division, as 90 wins should do it in the Central this season. The White Sox' offense should be fine. It was excellent a year ago, and shouldn't be any worse this time around.
Another thing bodes well for the White Sox and badly for the Twins in 2003. Although the Twins won 94 games in 2002, they won a larger-than-usual share of close games, and their run differential was actually worse than that of the White Sox, who finished 13 games behind them in the win column. The Twins' success in 2002 was a nice story, but they likely played over their heads a bit. Winning 94 again in 2003 is unlikely, although I do think they will be above .500 because of solid starting pitching. Their offense really needs a couple of big boppers if it plans to make much noise in 2003. The Twinkies scored 768 runs in 2002, only 9th in the league.
At least the Twins should be in the mix. What can one say about the Injuns, who seem to have all but given up after winning 6 Central Division titles ('95-'99, '01) and 2 American League Championships ('95, '97) in 7 years? Letting Jim Thome escape to free agency was the nail in the coffin for a team that never quite played up to its potential. Although the Indians have done a fine job with their farm system in the last decade, their willingness to trade those players away (Brian Giles, Bartolo Colon, Richie Sexson) or surrender them to free agency (Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome) must be galling to Tribe fans who can only imagine how many runs a lineup featuring Giles et al. in their primes would score. Yes, I know that the cost of fielding such a team would likely be prohibitive, but the Indians don't even try. In any event, 2003 figures to be more mediocrity while the Indians rebuild.
Finally, there are the two perennial doormats of the division, the Royals and the Tigers. It is a sign more of the poverty of vision of their ownership than any monetary poverty which has brought two once-proud franchises to their knees. Can the Royals really be the team which won 6 AL West Championships in 10 years ('76-'78, '80, '84-'85), 2 AL Championships ('80, '85) and a World Championship ('85)? As Steve McQueen says at the end of The Sand Pebbles, "What the hell happened?" And are the Tigers really the same franchise which once opened the season 35-5, the franchise of Cobb and Kaline and Newhouser and Gehringer and Whitaker and Trammell? Unfortunately for their fans, the answer is yes.
While both franchises have shown some ability to develop young talent, neither has shown any understanding of how to win with that talent in their respective home ballparks, and neither franchise has shown any willingness to make a commitment to winning, instead prefering to pocket their profits rather than put them back into the team. Neither team will make much noise in 2003, nor in any year thereafter until the philosophies behind running those teams start to change. If it can be done in Oakland and Minnesota, it can be done in Kansas City and Detroit as well.
Finally, there's the matter of the postseason. Don't bet the house on an AL Central team making it to the Series in 2003. That's about as likely as the Cubs winning 100 games.
Another year may have come off the calendar, but the AL Central looks to be as lackluster as usual. Not once in the 8-year history of the division has it ever produced the AL's wild card representative, and this year doesn't figure to be any different. Don't get me wrong; the division has improved. But it still falls short of the AL's other two divisions.
In any event, the final standings for 2003 in the AL Central, as I see them:
1. Chicago White Sox
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Cleveland Indians
4. Kansas City Royals
5. Detroit Tigers
Let's take a brief look at each team.
After taking the division by storm in 2000, the White Sox have spent the last two seasons wallowing in mediocrity. That figures to change in 2003, as the White Sox have beefed up their starting rotation considerably with the addition of Bartolo Colon, an excellent starter and near-ace. With Mark Buehrle backing him up, along with holdovers Jon Garland and Dan Wright, the Sox' starting pitching will likely be much improved. Wright doesn't figure to get much better but Garland should continue to improve. The final difference may only be 4-8 games in the won-lost column, but that should be enough to help the White Sox win the division, as 90 wins should do it in the Central this season. The White Sox' offense should be fine. It was excellent a year ago, and shouldn't be any worse this time around.
Another thing bodes well for the White Sox and badly for the Twins in 2003. Although the Twins won 94 games in 2002, they won a larger-than-usual share of close games, and their run differential was actually worse than that of the White Sox, who finished 13 games behind them in the win column. The Twins' success in 2002 was a nice story, but they likely played over their heads a bit. Winning 94 again in 2003 is unlikely, although I do think they will be above .500 because of solid starting pitching. Their offense really needs a couple of big boppers if it plans to make much noise in 2003. The Twinkies scored 768 runs in 2002, only 9th in the league.
At least the Twins should be in the mix. What can one say about the Injuns, who seem to have all but given up after winning 6 Central Division titles ('95-'99, '01) and 2 American League Championships ('95, '97) in 7 years? Letting Jim Thome escape to free agency was the nail in the coffin for a team that never quite played up to its potential. Although the Indians have done a fine job with their farm system in the last decade, their willingness to trade those players away (Brian Giles, Bartolo Colon, Richie Sexson) or surrender them to free agency (Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome) must be galling to Tribe fans who can only imagine how many runs a lineup featuring Giles et al. in their primes would score. Yes, I know that the cost of fielding such a team would likely be prohibitive, but the Indians don't even try. In any event, 2003 figures to be more mediocrity while the Indians rebuild.
Finally, there are the two perennial doormats of the division, the Royals and the Tigers. It is a sign more of the poverty of vision of their ownership than any monetary poverty which has brought two once-proud franchises to their knees. Can the Royals really be the team which won 6 AL West Championships in 10 years ('76-'78, '80, '84-'85), 2 AL Championships ('80, '85) and a World Championship ('85)? As Steve McQueen says at the end of The Sand Pebbles, "What the hell happened?" And are the Tigers really the same franchise which once opened the season 35-5, the franchise of Cobb and Kaline and Newhouser and Gehringer and Whitaker and Trammell? Unfortunately for their fans, the answer is yes.
While both franchises have shown some ability to develop young talent, neither has shown any understanding of how to win with that talent in their respective home ballparks, and neither franchise has shown any willingness to make a commitment to winning, instead prefering to pocket their profits rather than put them back into the team. Neither team will make much noise in 2003, nor in any year thereafter until the philosophies behind running those teams start to change. If it can be done in Oakland and Minnesota, it can be done in Kansas City and Detroit as well.
Finally, there's the matter of the postseason. Don't bet the house on an AL Central team making it to the Series in 2003. That's about as likely as the Cubs winning 100 games.
