16 games to go for most AL teams. Who has the easy road to October and who has the hard road??
My projected win total needed to clinch:
East 93
Central 88
West 95
Wildcard 90
I listed each team, what their record the rest of the way needs to be to clinch the division & wildcard, strength of schedule (SOS). Final column is their chances to reach the postseason based on this info and # home/away games (Division/at least a Wild Card)
TEAM--------DIVISION---WILD CARD---S.O.S.---Probability
Yankees............10-6................7-9.............(.467)....55%/90%
Orioles...............10-5................7-8...............(.471)....45%/70%
Rays..................15-0................12-3............. (.495)....1%/5%
ChiSox...............8-8.................10-6.............. (.511)....75%/75%
Tigers................11-5................13-3.............. (.463)....25%/25%
Rangers...............8-8.................3-13............. (.544)....80%/95%
A's.....................11-5................6-10.............(.556)....20%/75%
Angels................15-1................10-6............. (.537)....2%/30%
Conclusion:
Barring any complete melt downs, Yankees, Orioles, White Sox, Rangers and A's will make the post season. Angels are the only team with reasonable chance to beat out Yanks/O's for 5th spot but have way tougher schedule than either team.
*comments and criticisms welcome!
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