MJ's mlb playoffs
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5-5 +1.54
ml: 1-3 -0.94
rl: 1-0 +0.58
1st5: 1-1 -0.82
series: 2-1 +2.72
system sides: 9-6 +164 (based on $100 risk per game)
system value plays: 7-5 +300 (same)
===
Game #1
Matsuzaka@Shields
Rays 61%(n/a...-155 would be even)
Dice was 1-0 with an era of 3.00 in 3 vs Rays '08. Pitched one at the Trop and was great in that one.
Shields was 2-2 with a 5.85 in 4 vs 'Sox '08. That includes an 0-2 with a 21.21 era at Fenway! Two home meetings were April 27th where he tossed a CG ShO, allowing only 2 hits, walking 1 and fanning 7. The other at home was June 30th where he got the W in a 5-4 game, allowing 5 hits and 2 earnies in 6.1 IP.
Line should be closer to -130, I believe.
Down around -120 and I think I'm on it.
Here's what I'm looking at for subsequent games, subject to change somewhat if suspicious:
Game #2
Beckett@Kazmir
Rays 62%(-160 is even; should be cheaper than that)
Beckett was 2-1 2.06 in 5 '08. He threw great at the Trop. Rays will take advantage if he's no better than the ALDS.
Kazmir was 0-2 with a 9.00 era 4 '08 meetings; 0-1 4.50 in 2 @Fenway. A little shaky to close the season but he was solid in the ALDS. 'Sox really smoke lefties but didn't exactly manhandle Saunders.
Game #3
Garza@Lester
Bosox 65%(-185 is even; might be a tad cheaper but will likely be pricey)
Garza was 1-1 with a 4.50 in 4 '08. 0-1 with an 8.44 @Fenway (crushed in 1 meeting). He's much better at home--true for all TB SP's save Sonnanstine. He was pretty grim in the ALDS.
Lester was 3-0 with an 0.90 era in 3 '08 meetings, all at Fenway. This game appears to be the no-brainer of the bunch.
Game #4
Sonnanstine@Byrd
rays 53%(hard to call right now...close to +100 maybe)
or Game #4
Sonnanstine@Wakefield
rays 51%(guessing +115'ish)
Sonnanstine had no decisions but a sweet era of 0.00 in 2 '08 meetings, including 7 shutout inning at Fenway. Very effective in the ALDS.
Byrd had no '08 meetings. He's 2-2 with a 5.14 in his career vs.
Wakefield was 0-2 with a 5.87 era in 3 '08 meetings, all at Tropicana Field. Last was Sept 17th where he was smoked for 6 hits (incl. 3 homers) and 6 earnies in 2.1 IP. He had owned Tampa before this season. He hasn't pitched since September 28th (tossed a solid 5 innings at home vs Yankees, shutting the door).
Save for the Lester meetings, Rays appear to be worth a shot. They play fantastic at the Trop PLUS they should have a serious shot to take game #4 if the 'Sox use a four-man rotation.
I can currently get a series price at +116.
Possible Beckett turnaround is one thing currently holding me back. The other is the possibility of Lester tossing in game #7; that scenario would favour the 'Sox if it's Garza opposing, even at the Trop.
Plays pending.
GL
-----------------
5-5 +1.54
ml: 1-3 -0.94
rl: 1-0 +0.58
1st5: 1-1 -0.82
series: 2-1 +2.72
system sides: 9-6 +164 (based on $100 risk per game)
system value plays: 7-5 +300 (same)
===
Game #1
Matsuzaka@Shields
Rays 61%(n/a...-155 would be even)
Dice was 1-0 with an era of 3.00 in 3 vs Rays '08. Pitched one at the Trop and was great in that one.
Shields was 2-2 with a 5.85 in 4 vs 'Sox '08. That includes an 0-2 with a 21.21 era at Fenway! Two home meetings were April 27th where he tossed a CG ShO, allowing only 2 hits, walking 1 and fanning 7. The other at home was June 30th where he got the W in a 5-4 game, allowing 5 hits and 2 earnies in 6.1 IP.
Line should be closer to -130, I believe.
Down around -120 and I think I'm on it.
Here's what I'm looking at for subsequent games, subject to change somewhat if suspicious:
Game #2
Beckett@Kazmir
Rays 62%(-160 is even; should be cheaper than that)
Beckett was 2-1 2.06 in 5 '08. He threw great at the Trop. Rays will take advantage if he's no better than the ALDS.
Kazmir was 0-2 with a 9.00 era 4 '08 meetings; 0-1 4.50 in 2 @Fenway. A little shaky to close the season but he was solid in the ALDS. 'Sox really smoke lefties but didn't exactly manhandle Saunders.
Game #3
Garza@Lester
Bosox 65%(-185 is even; might be a tad cheaper but will likely be pricey)
Garza was 1-1 with a 4.50 in 4 '08. 0-1 with an 8.44 @Fenway (crushed in 1 meeting). He's much better at home--true for all TB SP's save Sonnanstine. He was pretty grim in the ALDS.
Lester was 3-0 with an 0.90 era in 3 '08 meetings, all at Fenway. This game appears to be the no-brainer of the bunch.
Game #4
Sonnanstine@Byrd
rays 53%(hard to call right now...close to +100 maybe)
or Game #4
Sonnanstine@Wakefield
rays 51%(guessing +115'ish)
Sonnanstine had no decisions but a sweet era of 0.00 in 2 '08 meetings, including 7 shutout inning at Fenway. Very effective in the ALDS.
Byrd had no '08 meetings. He's 2-2 with a 5.14 in his career vs.
Wakefield was 0-2 with a 5.87 era in 3 '08 meetings, all at Tropicana Field. Last was Sept 17th where he was smoked for 6 hits (incl. 3 homers) and 6 earnies in 2.1 IP. He had owned Tampa before this season. He hasn't pitched since September 28th (tossed a solid 5 innings at home vs Yankees, shutting the door).
Save for the Lester meetings, Rays appear to be worth a shot. They play fantastic at the Trop PLUS they should have a serious shot to take game #4 if the 'Sox use a four-man rotation.
I can currently get a series price at +116.
Possible Beckett turnaround is one thing currently holding me back. The other is the possibility of Lester tossing in game #7; that scenario would favour the 'Sox if it's Garza opposing, even at the Trop.
Plays pending.
GL
