ALDS - Angels vs Red Sox

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Game #1 (Lackey @ Beckett)

Red Sox 72% (-145)+12 RL 56 (+150)+16

over/under 8.5 50%


Lackey has horrible career numbers vs the Bosox; 1-6 with a 6.27 era. He went 0-2 with an 8.38 era vs the Sox in 2 Fenway starts this season, getting pummelled both times, including recently back on August 17th. Lackey has been solid lately. I have the Angels bullpen rated a 78. K-Rod is a solid closer.

Beckett was great in 2 starts vs the Angels this season, going 1-0 with a 1.38 era and .216 BAA. Career he's 2-0 with a 2.16 era vs the Angels in 4 starts. He had a 2.18 era on the road this season but it was 4.17 at Fenway park. Beckett had been great lately except in his last start against the light-hitting Twins, who beat him up pretty good at Fenway. I have the Bosox bullpen rated an 82, arguably with the second best pen in the Majors next to the Dodgers. Papelbon is a rock-solid closer.

Angels .675 OPS last 7 and run production is down.
Red Sox .889 OPS last 7 and run production is up.

Red Sox were 39-21 at home to R (.650).
Angels were 34-31 on the road to R (.523).


I thought that this one looked fairly even or maybe with a slight 'Sox edge before 'capping it. Lackey's god-awful numbers vs the Bosox and the 'Sox current offensive domination, not to mention better overall seasonal offensive numbers, has to give the Bosox a real good chance to take this match. I'm sick, already, of watching the 'Sox win this season but I think I'll be rooting for them come Wednesday.

Predicted score: Red Sox 6 Angels 3


Plays pending.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

Don't give me that do goody-good bullshit

PLAYS

Red Sox -145 5.8/4


Quite a mismatch at the plate. Not a bad choice in starting pitchers, too.
I think the Sox take the first step towards the chamionship series here.

GL

 

[Destructor D]

I'm shocked at the lack of value for the Angels per your numbers. It sounds like Anaheim shouldn't even fly to Boston for game #1.

Halos are now +150 at some offshore books. IMO, this gives value to Anaheim. I know they have to win, but they are more than capable of winning. Beckett looked terrible in his last outing and Lackey has proven in the past that he's tough in the post season.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Red Sox lead series 1-0

Red Sox lead series 1-0

Game #2

Escobar @ Matsuzaka

Red Sox 59% (N/A)

over 9.5? 54% (N/A)


I'm giving a small edge to the Angels pitching and a medium-sized edge to the Bosox hitting. Escobar has mediocre numbers vs the Bosox but nothing from this season. After throwing two real stinkers, apparently bothered by an injury, Escobar was solid in his last at Oakland, working only 6 innings. Dice-K has never faced the Angels and has been mediocre at Fenway all season (4.86 era). 5 of Dice's last 8 starts were pretty bad; his last, at home to the Twins, was solid. Bosox hitting much better than the Angels lately. Home field advantage also factored in.


Predicted score: Red Sox 6 Angels 4


Plays pending.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Red Sox lead series 2-0

Red Sox lead series 2-0

Game #3

Schilling @ Weaver

red sox 55% (N/A)

under 9? 60% (N/A)


Schilling is 6-2, 3.67 era in his career vs the Angels, but in his last vs them, at home on August 18th, he allowed 8 hits and 5 earned runs over 6 innings of work. He's faced Laa 3 times this season, going 2-1 with a 4.05 era. He's been pretty solid over the past couple of months. 'Sox have a solid pen, as demonstrated in game #2.

Weaver is 0-2 with a 4.70 era in 4 career starts vs the Bosox. He's faced Boston twice this season, going 0-1 with a 6.97 era. He was beat up at Boston on August 18th but looked pretty good vs them at home on August 6th, getting no decision in a 4-2 Angels win. 5 of Weaver's last 7 starts were very good. Angels were 7-3 over his last 10 starts. Angels have a good pen, but not as good as the Bosox, and key man K-Rod already has taken his lumps vs the 'Sox in this series.

Red Sox OPS vs R is .808.
Angels OPS vs R is .762.
Red Sox OPS on the road .768
Angels OPS at home .812
Red Sox OPS last 7 days was .917.
Angels OPS last 7 days was .583; hurtin' with Vladdy not 100% and Anderson appearing to have only one functional eye

Giving a small edge to the Bosox pitching and a slightly larger edge to their hitting. Angels perform well at home so definitely have a chance to extend the series, but they looked pretty grim at the plate, both games, and even late-season, and Schilling has been decent lately so more headaches for the Angelsticks seems likely. Weaver's best years probably lie ahead of him, unless he becomes like his brother, and he'll have his hands full here. Tougher game to call than the first two but I'd still have to give the nod to the Red Sox.


Predicted score: Red Sox 4 Angels 3


Plays pending.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYOFF RECORD

5-5 +3.29
ML 4-1 +5.28
RL 0-2 -1.1
totals 1-0 +0.5
parlays 0-2 -1.39

system sides 7-3
system picks 2-0 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system totals 3-2
total picks 0-0 (65%+)

--------------------------------------------------------------

PLAYS

red sox -105 0.84/0.8

red sox over4 -120 0.6/0.5


I think they'll end it today. Angels are really hurting on offense, right now. Red Sox are hitting just fine, and I figure that they can score at least 4 today.

GL