All star manager backlash ? + Ariz & Dodgers write up

[redman69]

First off let me introduce my self, I have been following this forum for a while and have enjoyed everybodys analysis. This is my first post, so be nice.

First a question, then my first write up. Could there be a backlash against Brenley & Torre for the players that felt they got snubbed for the all-star game? Might be an angle to keep track of. This is a question I ponder while I make my first pick.

Ariz & Dodgers
Some interesting trends for this game.
The D'backs are 7-2 in their first home game following a home game they lost when Randy started.

GOOD MONTH pitchers for JULY from 1999-2001.
Rick Helling 15-3

Meanwhile, the D'backs are hitting a fantastic .301 versus lefthanders in Bank One Ballpark

More alarming is the Diamondbacks' lack of power. After leading the National League with 79 home runs in their first 69 games, the Diamondbacks have produced only three home runs in their past 12 games.

They also won't have the services of first baseman Erubiel Durazo, who was placed on the 15-day because of a right oblique muscle strain

So my pick is Arizona -135 and the under 9 for this game, hopefully nobody will go off for the dodgers, feeling slighted at being left off the all star team.

P.S. Looking for another pitching duel and the bull pens should be in good shape, with the innings the starters went last night.

 

[IE]

you make some good points, i myself never use anything but current year stats and info, over time they will burn you bad...

current form has the diamondbacks hitting .206 vs lefties last 5.

helling has had one non-quality start since getting bombed vs LA earlier and is in good current form...although i don't like to see a pitcher off a mutiple hr game(even if it was in Houston)...

both bullpens are in good shape usage wise....

daal said he was ok after his bullpen session couple of days ago with muscle strain complications earlier....but hard to know with these type of injuries until warmups.

Shawn Green should be back in the lineup tonight which switches that whole batting order around for dodgers....

you mentioned Duraizo being out, also Grace has broken toe,,,,but he would only come in as ph i assume with the lefty going...

lines look tough in this one....dodgers are winning 62% of their games, so -135/-140 seems about right...inferring the diamondbacks to win this game 58% of the time..

arizona is 23-6 when scoring 4 or more runs at home.
and 2-9 at home when scoring less than 4 runs....so seems inferred line of around 4.5 must be met...if you think they can score 5 off dodgers staff you have a good chance of winning this one.


also, one of the hardest things to do in handicapping is handicapping emotion....most of the time public emotion is built in.


good luck with your plays, thought i would just throw out some comments...good or bad that might help you....

and also.....welcome to Madjacks!!


IE