An Evaluation

[Woodson]

I'm a planner by trade so when I woke up this morning with a sense of dread, thinking of today's games, I asked myself, why haven't I planned better management of my bank roll? :shrug:

Pulling the results from the last six weeks, I was astounded to realize, I have one winning Saturday in that time frame. One of six Saturdays. Since the week of July 11th, I've lost $4,183 on Saturday. That is an astounding number. That number made me cringe. If I had not played Saturdays, I'd have $4,183 more in the for entertainment only (after all this is all just make believe ) account. My winning week... was for $200:facepalm: . Which tells me I got lucky that week and the right side probably didn't hit.

Now obviously, you guys know, I lean (hard) to large juice plays, but my reasoning may not be clear. With the top ten teams in mlb, I worry less about errors, bullpen, and consistent hitting. Those factors are worth the tradeoff of risking an addition .25-.50 to me. Everyone is different, but I'm living proof that you can win playing high vig favorites.

In those six weeks, I have 1 losing week, and its not even close, in fact, when Monday rolled around I had already begun building on the deficit. Everyone has a cold streak, everyone.

So what is happening on Saturdays that doesn't happen on Sunday? Or further proof, Monday - Wednesday where I'm 14 out of 18 profitable days?

I'm interested in getting your take on how Saturday doesn't work well with huge ml favorites.

1. Because the general public plays on weekends? Yes, but remember Sunday is profitable.
2. I lean heavy on Sunday from other contributors after a dismal Saturday? Actually no, I usually play more of others on Thursday which is why this day isn't included in the discussion.
3. Vegas Factor? Higher juice on already inflated weekend lines? I think so.
4. I load up on key games on Saturday, which is bad bankroll management. (I tend to socially destroy half cases of beer Saturdays as well so this could be on target.
5.
6.
7.
8.

I would really like the regulars, and non posters, to contribute to what it is about Saturdays for heavy favorites.

Also, of note, during the week day games I'm 0-5 -$1000.

In summary, by simply going through an excel spreadsheet I've discovered, I'm fade material on Saturday and day games having lost $5,183 in 6 weeks.

Talk about a leak in profits! So, have you evaluated your play? Have you found "leaks" or bad habits.

I'm interested in knowing your rules to the game we play for fun and entertainment purposes only.

Good luck today.

:toast:

 

[VMAHARAJ]

Interesting post sort of what I'm thinking lately also and when in good situation +money I will stay away from Baseball on Weekends. I tend to stay away from large favs and perhaps you are on to something as the winners are get inflated and I search and play the value losers.:shrug:

I also have found it tough on the day games few games that has all public action, what I cap and makes sense is NOT the outcome. STL yesteday is just another example.

So do you still play the favs on the Saturday or do you shy away when # is too high.

I am up the $ figure I am comfortable with and am not playing anything this weekend. If I did the same last weekend I would have collected an additional $200 for that week. Small player $50 units.

Nice post.

 

[Woodson]

Thanks for posting, pronounced Vah Mar Ha Rosh? :0074

I'm in descending mode, where plays will go back to non sweat numbers. I'm not betting heavily today but will coat tail a few for certain. Using a unit system, +4 last week puts you in the same boat as me.

I left a lot of money on the table the last six Saturdays not fully realizing I had cut an artery in profits.

I did place the Phillies today at .41for 2 units.

That's probably it for today though.

Thanks for contributing.

:toast:

 

[azbob]

It might be interesting to look at how many plays you have on Saturday versus other days.

For instance, some people tend to bet just becasue a game is hyped or on TV. Also, if you are home all day Sat/Sun versus weekdays, you have more opportunity to bet on more games plus the chase factor.

If this isn't true for you it might be for others who post here which may influence you selecting a game that typically you would not play.

Good luck.

 

[jng]

You have answered your own question very eloquently:

"I tend to socially destroy half cases of beer Saturdays as well so this could be on target."

Not judging, just confirming your own suspicion.

J

 

[Allen80]

Kinda in the same boat up big over the last month and half thanks to a few of yall.. Noticed last week that Id lost like 4grand on thursdays over the past month.. The other days all pretty good.. Just thursdays for some reason.. Intrested in what everyone thinks

 

[Terryray]

I would suspect you are being fooled by randomness. Your data series (as with the 0-5 day games) is not large enough to even attempt to compute a confidence factor.

 

[Woodson]

You have answered your own question very eloquently:

"I tend to socially destroy half cases of beer Saturdays as well so this could be on target."

Not judging, just confirming your own suspicion.

J

We have a winner. Hit my play for two hundred. Hit Terry Rays play for 236 or so... Lost a tease for 100.

+336

Standing in a bar, I see Hammers play for 2k on Saints not realizing he played Denver.

I matched it.

-2200 + 336 = bad money management, -1850 or whatever.

I'm not disciplined or responsible enough to gamble even though I win. Because when I drink I can't lose.

I'll take the profits before i blow them and go back to 50/100 games.




Thanks fellas.

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

About 8yrs ago on a trip to vegas,a sportsbook manager at the stardust told me saturday's was the day of the dog and it has stuck with me since.......I'm not a big juice bettor but i will lay some juice if i feel like it's a huge mismatch,like tonight rays game. But ya woody on saturdays dogs do tend to bark louder than any other day atleast IMO :shrug:

 

[BadAngel]

Woodson, Saturdays are dog days for some reason. Its probably why I do good on sat. I play alot of dogs. Yesterday was 3-1 with dogs. The Mets blowing a 2 run lead in the 9th kept me from going 4-0. I played one big Fav SF and it lost. How smart was I there? I know it is my dog day. If I would have thrown SF out I would have been 6-1 for the day, with the Mets choke job being my only loser. I was 3-0 in totals. As hard as you or I, or anyone tries to cover all the bases, some plays still slip through the cracks in your mind. I had one book who was a friend of mine tell about a couple of his customers. This one guys reminds me of you. This was back in the 70's. He had a guy, a dime player (alot of money back then) that would play 4 or 5 games a week. All big Favs. Every week he is 4-1, 5-0, 4-0. He never collected from him. After about 8 weeks he told him to get lost.:mj07: :mj07: I use that system mixed in with my dogs. I am 2-0 this week with the big Favs. Thur i circled only 2 more for the rest of the week. They are both today (Sun) You have one of them Philly. The other is Boston with Lester. I put on my schedule Bos and if they lose Sat, Boston really big Sun. Well they lost. There is another dog that i let slip through the cracks Sat, KC. holliday is 11-1 agst Wash, Lester 4-1 agst KC and he is due to pitch a great game, back to back. He had a great one agst TB last outing. He is up agst Duffy who is in trouble right now. Duffy is not going good. I also like one more big fav but not as much. NYY with Nova. I have been on Nova for awhile, He has won 8 Str. In the middle of this 8 Str run he got a no decision and the Yanks won that one too. So that is 9 Str as far as I am concerned. I have been on them all. Some of them I haven't posted. This is why I don't do write ups. I'll go on and on and won't have time to do anything else.:mj07: :mj07: I hope I didn't bore you with this long ass thread. I have been betting a long time, 44 years, I started when I was 18. There are not too many systems and ways to bet that i haven't heard of or seen. I try to use the ones that work the best. It is a grind.

Like I said Woodson, i hope i didn't bore.

GL Sunday

BA

 

[hammer1]

Very Good Write Up !!!!!!!!

Very Good Write Up !!!!!!!!

Wd be good if there were more
informational threads around here ,,,but it's all "get we a winner"....and that's it. You are one of the Studs around here. But then again..so few people in life really want to pay the price of getting really good at whatever they have chosen to do.

 

[STEEL CITY SELECTIONS]

woody....i been at this for 30 yrs....about 10yrs ago realized that sat. was a different day for some reason .....dont know if its fri. nite hangover or what?....anyway went back and crunched numbers for sat......i found a successful simple angle for sat. only....which i posted here many times years ago...
i think alot of baseball is based on momentum...and this fits the momentum theory perfectly....
the simple angle is play against any road team fav. or dog thats on 3 or more losses on sat.
if you think about it...it makes sense...fri. nite they lost, team is struggling,they are on a losing streak, on the road out somewhere partying fri. nite i would guess....sat. games alot were scheduled to be day games....not as many nowawdays...but the angle has remained strong...
this year its overall record is 29-14+11.60
yesterday it went 4-0 winners were tbay...angels....padres.....braves.

yeah i agree i think sat. is a different animal and needs to be looked at differently.

day games...i also look to play momentum...if the game before was a nite game....always look to take the home team if off a win and is fav. and that scored late in the game...late inning comeback or scored in last 3 innnings....

woody i always was a big dog player...but got tired of betting bad teams and watching them blow games...

i changed my strategy to betting the good teams..for the exact reasons you did....i want my money on the better team in a favorable situation....

hope this helps out...nice thread....i dont get involved much here anymore because it seems like all there is little kid drama and jealousy...im 47 yrs. old and i take this seriously...i post because maybe ill help a couple guys out with my experience...i been here 10 yrs. and seem them all come and go....in the beginning here it actually was a damn good site for good cappers and good information..then it kinda went to shit as it got bigger...to many punks...and bullshit. so this is a good thread and what i think this site was intended to be originally...
gluck guys burgh....

 

[hammer1]

Wow...2 in a row valuable insightful posts.......

Wow...2 in a row valuable insightful posts.......

woody....i been at this for 30 yrs....about 10yrs ago realized that sat. was a different day for some reason .....dont know if its fri. nite hangover or what?....anyway went back and crunched numbers for sat......i found a successful simple angle for sat. only....which i posted here many times years ago...
i think alot of baseball is based on momentum...and this fits the momentum theory perfectly....
the simple angle is play against any road team fav. or dog thats on 3 or more losses on sat.
if you think about it...it makes sense...fri. nite they lost, team is struggling,they are on a losing streak, on the road out somewhere partying fri. nite i would guess....sat. games alot were scheduled to be day games....not as many nowawdays...but the angle has remained strong...
this year its overall record is 29-14+11.60
yesterday it went 4-0 winners were tbay...angels....padres.....braves.

yeah i agree i think sat. is a different animal and needs to be looked at differently.

day games...i also look to play momentum...if the game before was a nite game....always look to take the home team if off a win and is fav. and that scored late in the game...late inning comeback or scored in last 3 innnings....

woody i always was a big dog player...but got tired of betting bad teams and watching them blow games...

i changed my strategy to betting the good teams..for the exact reasons you did....i want my money on the better team in a favorable situation....

hope this helps out...nice thread....i dont get involved much here anymore because it seems like all there is little kid drama and jealousy...im 47 yrs. old and i take this seriously...i post because maybe ill help a couple guys out with my experience...i been here 10 yrs. and seem them all come and go....in the beginning here it actually was a damn good site for good cappers and good information..then it kinda went to shit as it got bigger...to many punks...and bullshit. so this is a good thread and what i think this site was intended to be originally...

!
gluck guys burgh....

Thank You Sir !!!!