An Observation

[eztds]

I have stepped back and asked myself........

Why is capp'n so hit and miss right now????

As I said last night....win one <--> lose one seems to be the boat many are in right now.

-One answer could be the numerous injuries around the NBA right now. Take tonight for example:

Tor...no Carter or Childs
Atl...no Davis

Den...depelted by the Mavs trade, no McDyess or Hardaway
Mil...no Cassel, Allen or Redd

SAC...Stojakovic out and Turk maybe out with food poisoning
Hou...Francis is always a question mark

Philly...no Iverson
Chic...depleted with Indy trade and very young

Clev...no Hill, Murray or Z
Utah...Marshall out

Dal...still looking for team chemistry after the Den trade
Minn...hasn't been the same team since Brandon went down

POINT BEING.....how can even the best handicapper
deal with "daily" line up overhauls???

Seems like every team plays differently every time out......and that might be because it's a different team out on the floor every night!!!

That "new" team your play'n may or may not be on the same page with players who can even step it up and perform.

I don't know....just my thoughts (excuse) as to why I'm 5-5 over the past 5 days.

Anyone have suggestions to deal with capp'n in this environment of injuries?? ez

 

[gsp]

I agree with what you said. Put that with all the things I listed last week and you start getting the picture. Using stats this time of year is almost impossible for sides. Knowledge of the NBA and totals is all that is keeping me in the game. I'm looking for one more little run. Good luck tonight

 

[nighthorse]

That's the point.....statistics. Those who rely on stats are really having cosistency problems right now. System players are likely struggling. trends of one team vs. another not as applicable.

I'm thinking trends dealing with days rest, back to backs etc. are more useful than this team over that team, etc.

Your point about totals, gsp in on also. These teams didn't trade coaches, and the coaches aren't on the injured list. The philosophies are less likely to change than the ability to carry out those philosophies.

Just some thoughts.

 

[lobsta]

what they call what we are doing right now, is to coin a phrase, handiguessin-

 

[hildog]

I've been trying to look for more psychological angles. This team wants to win more, that team just won a big one, look for the let-down, etc.. Example of where this failed was last night. Sixers were all over the place, rebounding, diving for loose balls, giving it their all. They definitely had the want to more than the Nets last night. However, without AI they just didn't have the offensive firepower to hang with the Nets. Will the Sixers display that kind of effort tonight in Chicago:shrug: ? I don't know if I've ever seen a team more out of sync and completely ineffective just because one player is out. Therefore, I am going to play the Bulls tonight. I just don't know if the Sixers can come with the same vigor as they did last night, knowing that all that effort on the defensive end didn't get them squat last night.

 

[JEREMY]

This is a great topic of discussion, especially as we roll into the last couple weeks of the regular season.

I think all of your points about putting more weight to the subjective (situational) vs. objective (stats, talent) lends alot of credibility at this stage of the season.

I think you really have to have a pulse on the teams going down the stretch to make logical wagering decisions. For example, I've heard on this forum numerous times that the Knicks have packed it in and quit, yet they came out last night and beat the Pistons. Have they quit yet, or are they trying to play the role of spoiler and will "get up" to beat the playoff teams? The Suns are another team that seemed to have quit a couple of weeks ago and then beat the Lakers at home last night. The Raptors lost Vince Carter and probably their playoff hopes last week, yet have done nothing more than win 3 straight. How do you explain it?

I'd be interested to hear more from others on this subject as to how they implement the subjective elements into their handicapping the last weeks of the season.

JEREMY

 

[dnuggets]

Imho your the best capper ive seen, you use a lot of logic and numbers but also common sense. You are the only capper who has ever got me to make a play i wasnt going to in the first place and you seem very consistent...I think theres lots of VERY OVERATED cappers on this site and many others but you are very very good....gl...

 

[nighthorse]

Hey, Dnuggs. I'm a better capper.....One post from me and lots of people consider sides they hadn't considered before...lots of people change sides....I've had people tell me they bought back a previously placed wager because of what I posted!!

Just the other day, I posted taking Milw +2 over Dallas....before you knew it....+5......coincedence??

 

[eztds]

NOW dnugs...........

NOW dnugs...........

don't get carried away!

I appreciate the positive comments.....but that's FAR more than what's deserved.

I do feel that when haindcapp'n done with some supporting evidence it's of intrinsic value.....not only for the person choosing to do things in that manner but also for those choosing to study such offerings.....and come to their own conclusions.

That's not to say there aren't MANY other ways to get the job done......and MANY do a great job here at MadJacks!!!

TO EACH HIS OWN......I have no problem either way.

But dnugs....you hit on the reason why this thread was begun....CONSISTENCY.

I seem to be losing confidence in my logic, numbers and common sense right now. A "scared" bettor.....is a "bad" bettor!

Right now.....I seem to be talk'n myself into and out of plays based on some injury or team problem without any supporting evidence as to how it truely impacts the game at tip time.

Who the heck knows how a team's 3rd string forward or point guard is going to do as tonight's starter???

Currently, I don't have much confidence in the dependability of available information, numbers and/or trends.....which makes coming to logical conclusions darn near impossible.

"handiguessin" is exactly what I feel is happening right now........and our books are just getting fat with "juice" as we "churn" away.

gsp, NH, lob, hildog and JEREMY......thanks for the relies and insights. I really think we're fool'n ourselves right now if we think we're really capp'n "MOST" of these games in the current environment.

Just my opinion........take it or leave it. GL if ya play one tonight! ez