Anaheim vs. Minnesota series thoughts

gecko

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IMO this series has a very good chance of going the distance. Although the Anaheim team everyone got to see vs the Yanks slugged it out, I see both the Angels and Twins as very similar teams.

Both are very good at playing NL-style ball, station to station, manufacturing runs. Anaheim had the highest team BA in the majors, Minny #6. Both have almost identical slugging percentages. In fact, Minnesota has actually hit more HR's!

As for pitching, the Angels' starters and bp do possess a lower ERA than Minny. But I see no significant advantage for either club. Twins have given up more long balls this season, but Halos did allow more BB's. However, if you took a look at their performances in the postseason, you'll see that Minny's staff has been stingier, giving up fewer runs (vs. Oakland) and holding them to a lower BA.

Defensively, both teams have virtually identical fielding percentages. Minny's committed the fewest errors in the league. he Angels' catchers have thrown out twice as many would be base stealers, but have also allowed 20 more stolen bases. Anaheim has also turned more double plays.

Twins may appear to have more team speed (and I do think they have a slight edge), but the Angels have stolen almost 30 more bases this yr. It helps that Anaheim has a higher on base pctg. Lending to that is the fact that Anaheim has struck out the fewest times of any team in the majors. Simply put, they put the bat on the ball and are very patient at the plate. Minny, meanwhile, can't afford to have someone like Jacques Jones strike out 3 times in a game.

In the end, I believe what will determine, in large part, the outcome of this series is getting on base, making the right decisions on the basepaths, and timely hitting. In other words, small ball. Game 1 should give a good indication.
 

gecko

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Just because both teams can play "small ball" won't necessarily result in unders. But seems like Minnesota's pitching is decidedly better than the Yanks.


played Game 1 under 10 (-120) earlier

GLTA.:)
 

gecko

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One more thing, if Minny's pitchers can keep pitches down and Angels hit more grounders, Twins "D" has an advantage playing on the turf at home.
 

gecko

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gecko said:
One more thing, if Minny's pitchers can keep pitches down and Angels hit more grounders, Twins "D" has an advantage playing on the turf at home.

Gee whiz.....Christian Guzman just had to muff that easy ground out, leading to an Anaheim unearned run. Oh well!:rolleyes: :nooo:
 

gecko

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Game 1 summary

Game 1 summary

Well, it sure was a pitchers' duel. Both teams were tight, reminded me of last nite's SF/ATL game, but in that game there were even more opportunities to score.

Only 9 hits in the entire game. Appier allowed a few BB's. No home runs. In the latter innings both teams had a hard time getting men on base. But early on Minny had chances to bust the game open. As expected, Twins pitching minimized damage from Angels' bats. Anaheim stranded only 3 runners.
 

gecko

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one more thing.....

one more thing.....

Very impressed with Mays' pitching tonite. 13 grounders vs. 8 fly balls. Even though I didn't watch the game, it sounds like he might have keep the ball down in the K zone.
 

gecko

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and another thing....

and another thing....

Just heard about how Mays threw all those fastball first pitch strikes. Sounds like some of the Angels' batters quickly got into the hole. Perhaps they were TOO patient at the plate, instead of swinging at those first pitches.:shrug:
 

gecko

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Game 2 prediction

Game 2 prediction

ANAHEIM -109


Now that a Game 1 is out of the way, I believe we'll see Anaheim come out on top here.

Ortiz was hit hard in his last start, which was on 8 days rest. I believe that made a big difference. Tonite he will try to return to form as one of the AL's top pitchers down the stretch, going 6-0. A big deal is often made of him giving up lots of homers, but the fact is it's only 0.13 HR's more than Reed per 9 innings.

We all know Angels can put the bat on the ball and get runners on base. They only got 4 hits last nite partly because they took too many pitches early in the count. If they get on base vs. Reed, they will have the advantage. Reed's OBA with men on is .271, and .283 with RISP. Ortiz's are considerably lower, .210 and .215, respectively. That is significant because, if anything, Ortiz had walk a lot of batters, and that was obvious in the first couple of innings vs. NY's very patient hitters. "Little Pedro" has to find his command tonite.

GLTA.:)
 

gecko

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GAME 2 quickie recap/analysis

GAME 2 quickie recap/analysis

HALOS 6, TWINKIES 3 :spotting:



What a difference a day makes!:D Angels bats bang out 10 hits, and more importantly, delivered in the clutch. Getting the split in Minneapolis was crucial.

As expected, Ramon Ortiz early on pitched much better than in his last outing, before running into a rough 6th inning. No doubt he got back into his rhythm after having been off for 8 days between his prior 2 starts. He threw 58% strikes, working around the plate just enough. The BP took care of the rest.

Meanwhile, 71% of Rick Reed's pitches were strikes. With the ball in the zone, Angels hitters were able to do some damage early on. Reed's less than stellar opponents' batting avg (OBA) with men on base came back to haunt him, as Halo bats were clutch, going 4 for 9, a .444 avg! By contrast, Minny went an abysmal 0 for 6 with runners on in Ortiz' first 5 innings.


no game tomorrow :sleep:....more thoughts to come for Friday's Game 3 in Anaheim
 

HighRoller

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Great Call

Great Call

The Angels outplayed them and got some LUCKY CALLS from the UMP !

A win is a win !

CONGRATS !

:D
 

gecko

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Thanks HR. Didn't see the game, just listening to the Angels radio broadcast, so I'm unaware of those "lucky calls"....just call me "ignant"!;)
 

ZigZag

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I think it is going to be tough for the Twins to pulll this series out.

The Angels bats are very hot and I that Angels bullpen is just Filthy.

These guys are just sick. Weber, the Kid, Percy

That kid is just flat nasty. He was a little unfortunate tonight considering he only gave up one hit and was taken out only because he walked Hunter before the hit. Before that I think he struck out 3 of 4.

I think it will be very tough for the Twins to come back in any of these games if the Angels are leading late.

But then again I have been wrong many times before.
 

gecko

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Yeah, Rodriguez got into a jam just like he did vs. the Yanks in Game 4. Just a learning experience and he managed to get out of it. And there's a reason the Angels' BP has the lowest ERA in the AL.

Going back to Anaheim for the next 3 games, I feel pitching will be the name of the game once again. (The Halos actually hit better on the road.) Washburn vs. Radke should be a solid matchup, and I agree that the momentum is with the home team. If anything, Anaheim should take 2 out of 3.

But then again, the Twins were down 2-1 vs. Oakland and came back to win the series. Thankfully, the Angels are NOT the A's. They're better......and all they have to do is just keep playing their brand of ball.
 

gecko

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correction

correction

It's MILTON vs. Washburn in Game 3. :rolleyes: Radke will face John Lackey in Game 4. Both games are scheduled to begin in the late afternoon (Anaheim time). Game 5 projected starters are Mays and Appier, early afternoon start.
 

gecko

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I just noticed that......

I just noticed that......

.....Brad Radke's scheduled start in Game 4 is his ONLY START of the series!

Amazingly, Minny's hottest starter of the postseason (2 wins, 1.54 ERA) will make only one appearance (unless he pulls a Curt Schilling). Meanwhile, Rick Reed will be starting a potentially crucial Game 6. So far in the playoffs, Reed is winless, has a 6.97 ERA and has given up 6 homers!:eek:
 

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Gecko, you have a darn good thread going here. Your predictions are solid.... and informative. Keep up the good work!

I think Ananheim, especially after last night, will end up winning this series. I admit I didn't think that before the series began and don't have money on it, but I would take Anaheim to win. I think they have more weapons on offense and a slight edge in pitching. Anaheim's stealing (and thumping Minny) game 2 yesterday was huge. 3 games in Anaheim now.... lets hope their crowd is like it was against the Yankees.

Of course, I look foward to your analysis of game #3 and beyond...

GL!
 

gecko

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Thanks Avalanche.

Everyone's welcome to post information in this thread. It's all about us getting the edge in handicapping this series. I've gained alot from others' contributions (like yourself) in these forums, and it's only a courtesy that each of us try to give something back.

In the regular season, when the Yanks came to Edison Field, the crowd was really into it. NY took the series, though. But we all saw how raucous they were in the postseason.....pretty good for LA's so-called fair weather fans, eh? As loud and enthusiastic as the Metrodome crowd was, Anaheim's just as pumped up (only that there's no dome to amplify the noise!). They've been starved of playoff baseball for 16 years and now the feeling is back, it seems. The fans at the Ed should be ready to "welcome" the Twins into town.:p
 

ferdville

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During the regular season, when Boston and NYY came to play at Anaheim, the fans were probably split about 50/50. Not so for playoffs - almost 100% Angel fans. I constantly hear the announcers talk about Twins excellent and daring baserunning. Haven't seen a touch of it in series so far. In fact, Twins inability to send runners from first has accounted for abnormal amount of double plays they have hit into. Also seen occasions where they don't start runner from first on 3-2 count with less than 2 out. Angels, on other hand, constantly looking to keep runners in motion to avoid dps. For first 2 games, this is one of the biggest differences I have seen in two very similar teams. I will say this - Washburn will be cery tough to beat tomorrow.
 

gecko

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Game 3 tonite!

Game 3 tonite!

ANAHEIM -170


In the first post I stated "...I believe what will determine...the outcome of this series is getting on base, making the right decisions on the basepaths, and timely hitting. In other words, small ball."

Well, it's obvious that the Twins have not been executing in key situations. Get a man on base and proceeding to ground into a DP, not being aggressive enough with the hit and run or stealing bases. I don't see much of that tonight either. Washburn and Milton hold runners pretty well, only a combined 7 stolen bases against them.

In Game 2, the Angels did execute in the early innings, and they'll try to do that tonight against lefty Eric Milton. There's been a myriad of stats being thrown around regarding Milton, like he's 4-0 in his career pitching in Anaheim. But he's also 1-2 with at 6.46 ERA against the Halos this year.

And remember what I said about Game 2 starter Rick Reed, that his opponents' batting avg. (OBA) with runners on was not very good? Well, this season Milton's is much worse than Reed's: .350 and a 12.49 ERA with men on, and .382 and a 19.82 ERA with RISP!:eek:

No doubt Scoscia will have left-handed batters Erstad and Anderson, and switch hitter Spezio in his lineup tonight. If he uses Kennedy and Fullmer, that'll be 5 LH hitters. Throw in Palmeiro if Salmon is scratched. Why is that significant? Because Milton has been terrible against lefties this season: .306 OBA, 9.57 ERA, 34 hits and NINE HOME RUNS in 26.1 innings!

Washburn will be pitching on 6 days rest. His last start was the series clincher at home vs NY. That should give him some confidence going into tonight's game. Only thing about him that stands out negatively is his ERA at home is a full point higher than his away ERA. If he's doing well, then they'll let him pitch 6 innings, or into the 7th.

No opinion on the total, only that 8.5 is a tough #. GLTA.:)
 

gecko

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I know it bucks convention, but I wouldn't mind seeing Spezio batting lefty (although most of his damage was done on the right side). No Kennedy or Fullmer in the lineup either. I don't know how to explain it, but the success of lefthanded batters vs. Milton is phenomenal, cannot explain it. By contrast, Washburn has held left handed hitters to less than a .200 BA this yr.

.....well, guess what.....lefty Garrett Anderson just hit a solo homer.:D
 
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