Angels and Yankees ALCS Betting Preview and Game 1

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Angels and Yankees ALCS Betting Preview and Game 1

While pitching is supposed to determine championships, the American League representative to the World Series figures to be what team outscores the other. These are the two best offenses in baseball, at least in terms of runs scored. Each team has a number of offensive strengths, yet both have weaknesses the other team can exploit.

New York is a power-laden veteran club that is patient as the dish and makes opposing pitchers feel they have to be perfect batter after batter. The additions of Mark Teixeira and Nick Swisher not only added power, but keep opposing teams from trying to stack pitching in their favor, since they are switch hitters. Alex Rodriguez is looking more comfortable for change in October and his presence in the lineup makes others see better pitches.

Rumors are circulating C.C. Sabathia is being kicked around to pitch three times if this series goes the limit. Though Sabathia?s concentration will wonder against lesser teams, he proven time and again to be ?big time? on the various teams he?s played for in important games. Phil Hughes seems to have found his perfect role and is probably being groomed for when the best closer ever, Mariano Rivera retires. There has never been closer that pitches as well and even at age 39, he still breaks more bats than any reliever.

A strong case can be made A.J. Burnett is the Yankees best pitcher, based on ?stuff?, yet it always doesn?t come with him to the mound. Of Burnett?s 34 starts this season, on eight separate occasions he was touched for five or more runs, proving command and over-anxiousness can overtake him. Andy Pettitte will start Game 3, with the Angles 38-17 against left-handers. Joba Chamberlain has fallen off the second half of the season and could be hero or goat for Yankee team trying to make Fall Classic for the first time since 2003. This is also new territory for manager Joe Girardi.

This is a different Angels? team than the last few years, when they last played in ALCS in 2005. The ?hack at everything? team has found a semblance of patience, thanks to the addition of Bobby Abreu, who showed even veteran hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, they can wait for a better pitch to swing at. This approach has made Chone Figgins more valuable as leadoff hitter. Kendry Morales has added much needed pop in the middle of the order. Howie Kendrick and Torri Hunter have been smokin? the baseball for an extended period of time. No team puts more pressure on defenses with runners on base, with merry-go-round style.

It appears the Angels have the starting pitchers to match wits with New York. Game 1 starter John Lackey finally shook postseason blahs against Boston and Jered Weaver was the one dependable starter the Halos had early in the year when they were throwing out journeymen night after night due to injury. Game 2 starter Joe Saunders hasn?t lost since returning from DL on Aug.26 (7-0) and has not allowed more than three earned runs in those outings. Scott Kazmir will have a chance to prove why Los Angeles acquired.

When searching for weakness, the bullpen stands out Shaquille O?Neal among ordinary citizens. Brian Fuentes is the centerpiece of frustration, but it?s too late to turn back now. The setup men are a coin flip, with Kevin Jepsen and Darren Oliver the most trustworthy of leaky bunch. The biggest issue with the starting pitching is they have a contingent that would make four really good pitchers if they were No.3?s on most teams. That?s been a cause for postseason failures; a quality start might not be good enough in October. Vlad Guerrero deserves respect, nevertheless should he bat that high in the lineup with two RBI?s in last 19 postseason games? While Mike Scioscia is well regarded in baseball as a manager, he?s won as many titles as Charley Manuel and Bob Brenly, who won?t be going into the Hall of Fame as skippers.

Offensive ? American League
Runs scored Angels 2nd New York 1st
Home Runs Angels 8th New York 1st
Slugging Ptc. Angels 4th New York 1st
Walks Angels 7th New York 1st
On base Ptc. Angels 3rd New York 1st

Pitching & Defense
ERA Angels 9th New York 4th
Strikeouts Angels 9th New York 1st
Walks Angels 5th New York 11th
On base Ptc. Angels 10th New York 4th
Putouts Angels 5th New York 3rd
Errors Angels 4th New York 5th


Key Numbers- The Yankees and Angels split 10 games this season, with New York 3-1 at their new ball yard. Over the last three seasons the teams are 7-7 in the Bronx. On the season, the Yanks are frankly awesome. New York is domineering 59-24 at home and impressive 47-35 on the road. They dominated lefties with 37-18 record, whom they will face at least twice in this series. In games determined by two or more runs, New York is fantastic 83-43. With five scheduled night games, the Yankees are 70-36 under the lights. Don?t undersell the Angels, with 51-32 home record and 49-33 road mark. They too have crushed lefthanders with aforementioned record. The Halos are potent 34-22 as underdogs and as evidenced in three game sweep over Boston, no clubhouse is tighter, for a team that refuses to lose. Even after losing series to New York in late September, L.A. is still 11-4 in Anaheim vs the Yanks in last 15 contests.

Bookmaker.com Series Odds: Yankees -180, Angels +150
 

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ALCS Preview

ALCS Preview

ALCS Preview
October 14, 2009

HEAD TO HEAD COMPARISONS
TEAM SU Run Line HOME AWAY OVER/UNDER
106-59 90-75 59-24 47-35 77-80-8
100-65 93-71 51-32 49-33 84-74-6




2009 Head to Head Meetings
Date Results Total
Apr 30 New York (-230) 7 vs. Los Angeles 4 Over (10.5)
May 1 New York (-150) 10 vs. Los Angeles 9 Over (10)
May 2 New York 4 vs. Los Angeles (+230) 8 Over (10.5)
Jul 10 Los Angeles (+110) 10 vs. New York 6 Over (9.5)
Jul 11 Los Angeles (+100) 14 vs. New York 8 Over (10)
Jul 12 Los Angeles (+120) 5 vs. New York 4 Over (8.5)
Sep 14 New York (-125) 5 vs. Los Angeles 3 Under (9.5)
Sep 21 Los Angeles (-105) 5 vs. New York 2 Under (10)
Sep 22 Los Angeles 5 vs. New York (+110) 6 Over (10.5)
Sep 23 Los Angeles 2 vs. New York (+120) 3 Under (9.5)


The American League Championship Series will have two teams that not only owned the two best records in baseball, but both clubs will be well-rested. The Yankees and Angels each are fresh off sweeps in the ALDS, as both rallied for road wins in the series clinchers.

The Bombers have cruised along since June 4, compiling a 75-37 record over the last four months. In that same span, the Halos have gone 74-40, which is the second-best mark in baseball. The Yankees came back in each of the three victories over the Twins in the ALDS, as former postseason dud Alex Rodriguez hit two game-tying homers to help lead New York to victories in the final two games.

The Angels exorcised their postseason demons by slaying the Red Sox in three games, avenging losses to Boston in each of the last two postseasons. What made it a sweeter victory was the ninth-inning rally on Sunday against Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon, as the Halos eliminated Boston, 7-6.

The Yankees and Angels didn't settle much in the regular season, splitting ten meetings. In early May, the Bombers took two of three from the Halos in the Bronx, but consider this for a second. With all the injuries to their rotation to start the season, the Angels sent out Matt Palmer and Anthony Ortega to the mound, and ended up beating the Yanks with Palmer against CC Sabathia.

The Halos closed out the first half of the season with a three-game sweep of the Yankees in Anaheim, as each of the first six games finished 'over' the total. The opening two games of the series in Anaheim saw the Angels tally 24 runs, as the Halos pulled off the sweep without Torii Hunter and Vladimir Guerrero, who were both nursing injuries at the time.

The Yankees rallied to beat the Angels in a make-up game in the Bronx in mid-September, 5-3, despite Joba Chamberlain lasting four innings. That game was a tough scheduling spot for Mike Scioscia's team, travelling from the West Coast the day before, with the Red Sox on deck at Fenway.

New York wrapped up the AL East division title by beating the Angels two of three in late September to even up the season series at five apiece.

For all the problems the Angels had with the Red Sox in the postseason prior to knocking out Boston in the ALDS, Los Angeles has eliminated New York twice in the last eight years. The Angels took three of four from the Yanks in the 2002 ALDS en route to their lone World Series title. In 2005, the Halos won the ALDS series in five games, as A-Rod picked up only two hits in 15 at-bats.

Marshall says all the money the Yankees have spent in the offseason is finally paying off, "This looks to be a different bunch of Yankees (at least from the past few years), and perhaps it's time to credit those offseason additions of Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. Although neither had established themselves in past postseasons, they fared good enough in the first round to suggest they can certainly handle the big stage. The Yankees are attacking this postseason with their best frontline pitching in recent years."

New York did receive balanced pitching against Minnesota, as Sabathia, Burnett, and Andy Pettitte each went six innings, while the bullpen allowed two earned runs in ten innings of work.

The Angels gave up just one run the first two games against the Red Sox, thanks to outstanding pitching performances by John Lackey and Jered Weaver. Scott Kazmir was knocked around in Game 3, but was saved by the late rally against Papelbon and the Sox bullpen.

Weaver was the only Angels pitcher to make three starts against the Yankees this season, as L.A. went 1-2 in those games. Weaver will start Game 3, as the 27-year old suffered a loss in the mid-September make-up game in the Bronx, despite scattering seven hits and three runs in 7.1 innings.

Marshall says L.A. may have to play more conservative, "The Angels believe their staff can keep the Yanks in check, but I'm not so sure. And if they can't, the Halos are probably not going to win high-scoring affairs in this series. Although they finally advanced past Boston, the Halos still tend to be a bit impatient at the plate; Bobby Abreu's addition has alleviated that somewhat, but there are still too many free-swingers in this lineup."

Can the Halos keep up the momentum after jumping the Boston hump? Marshall isn't buying into it, "The Angels may also have a false sense of security after beating the BoSox, whose offense was prone to going into the sort of funks that cost it the first two games in Anaheim. The Yankees will offer a stiffer challenge."

The Yankees opened up as -210 favorites to win the series (Bet $2.10 to win $1.00), but that number has dipped to -185 with money coming in on the Angels. Los Angeles was +175 to claim the series (Bet $1.00 to win $1.75), but it's now down to +165.

The opener on Friday night features Sabathia and Lackey on the mound, as the Yankees are listed as $1.70 home 'chalk,' while the total is set at 8 ? at most shops. Sabathia lost twice to the Angels this season, allowing ten runs (nine earned) and 17 hits in 13.1 innings. Lackey silenced the Yankees' bats in July, beating New York, 5-4. Lackey gave up six hits and two earned runs in seven innings of work, cashing as a $1.20 home underdog.
 

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Angels' Lackey to start ALCS Game 1

Angels' Lackey to start ALCS Game 1

Angels' Lackey to start ALCS Game 1
October 14, 2009


ANAHEIM, Calif. (AP) -John Lackey will start Friday night's Game 1 of the AL championship series against CC Sabathia and the Yankees, getting the nod from manager Mike Scioscia before the Angels traveled to New York on Wednesday.

Lackey pitched 7 1-3 innings to lead Los Angeles to a 5-0 win over the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of the division series. The right-hander is 3-3 with a 3.02 ERA in 12 career postseason games, 10 starts.

``It's a fun atmosphere, for sure,'' Lackey said. ``It's the same as the last round. It helps to win the first game, but the importance is probably a little bit less in a seven-game series, especially being on the road. It'll be a challenge the whole series. They're a great team.''

Lackey was 11-8 with a 3.83 ERA after missing the first 33 games because of a forearm strain. He got Los Angeles off to a great start in the first round of the playoffs, allowing just four singles against Boston.

``When John is on that mound, he competes as well as anybody I've seen,'' Scioscia said of the eight-year veteran, who won Game 7 of the 2002 World Series as a rookie.

Lackey was 3-3 with a 3.76 ERA at the old Yankee Stadium and has yet to pitch in the new park - which is much more conducive to home runs. The right-hander gave up 23 in his 32 starts this season.

``You can't just focus on one guy in that lineup because they're too deep,'' Lackey said. ``Hopefully you keep guys off base in front of him and limit the damage.''

Scioscia revealed his four-man rotation following a morning workout at Angel Stadium that preceded the team's flight to New York.

Left-hander Joe Saunders will start Game 2 against A.J. Burnett on Saturday. Jered Weaver, the Angels' Game 2 pitcher in their sweep of the Red Sox, will face Andy Pettitte when the series shifts to Anaheim on Monday for Game 3.

``There's a lot of things that went into it, but I don't think it was a tough decision. We just wanted to evaluate a couple of things,'' Scioscia said. ``I think it makes sense for Joe to pitch Game 2 in that ballpark. Joe has the tools to pitch in that stadium. Joe's had a terrific year for us and we're confident when he's out there pitching.''

Saunders will be making his second postseason start. He allowed four runs over 4 2-3 innings in the Angels' 5-4 victory at Boston in Game 3 of last year's division series.

Scott Kazmir, acquired Aug. 28 from Tampa Bay, will start Game 4 in Anaheim - most likely against Sabathia.

New York manager Joe Girardi announced Tuesday he was leaning toward a three-man rotation, and weather could be a factor in his decision.

``I'm hearing a lot of rain. We may face Sabathia seven times,'' Scioscia joked. ``We might play just one game a week. I don't know.''
 

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MLB playoffs: Halos-Yanks series preview and pick

MLB playoffs: Halos-Yanks series preview and pick

MLB playoffs: Halos-Yanks series preview and pick

Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees

Series odds: Yankees -167

Pitching

The Yankees have the best starting pitcher of the series in CC Sabathia, who is 12-2 since the All-Star Break. After Sabathia, the Yankees have only two reliable starters, A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte. Rather than using Joba Chamberlain or Chad Gaudin as a fourth starter, New York is reportedly considering using Sabathia for Game 4 and, if necessary, Game 7. Sabathia was roughed up in two regular-season meetings with the Angels, however, going 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA.

The Angels have four solid starters in John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Scott Kazmir and Joe Saunders. Kazmir, who owns a 2.67 ERA against the Yankees in his career, could be key in shutting down the left-handed power bats of the Yankees.

While L.A. has the advantage in starting pitching, New York gets the nod in the bullpen. Yankees relievers had the 14th-best ERA in baseball during the regular season, while the Angels ranked 23rd. LA closer Brian Fuentes saved two games against Boston last round, but he's nowhere near as automatic as the Yankees' Mariano Rivera.

Edge: Los Angeles

Offense

Offense has been the calling card for both teams this season. New York scored the most runs in the Majors, while the Angels ranked second. LA had the highest batting average in baseball, followed closely by the Yankees.

New York generates most of its offense with the long ball. Seven Yankees went deep 20 or more times this year, helping the team set a franchise record for home runs in a season. Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez combined for 69 homers and 222 RBIs, even with Rodriguez missing the first month of the season.

The Angels steal more bases and run the bases more aggressively. Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu combined to swipe 74 bags during the regular season, setting the table for the rest of the order.

Edge: New York

Intangibles

Most teams are intimidated by playing New York, but the Angels aren't one of them. L.A. is the only American League team with a winning record against the Yankees over the past nine seasons, and the Angels eliminated New York from the playoffs in 2005.

Los Angeles got a huge monkey off its back by beating the Red Sox in the opening round, after falling to Boston in its previous three playoff meetings. Vladimir Guerrero entered the Boston series with only one RBI in his previous 17 postseason contests, but his two-out, two-run single off Jonathan Papelbon in Game 3 clinched the series win for the Halos.

As always, there's plenty of pressure on the Yankees, whose season will be viewed as a failure if they don't win their first World Series since 2000. Like Guerrero, Rodriguez exorcised some playoff demons in the opening round, hitting .455 with six RBIs in the first round and belting a clutch two-run ninth-inning home run off Twins closer Joe Nathan in Game 2.

New York has home-field advantage in the series, and that could be the difference. The Yankees were a league-best 57-24 at home this season.

Edge: New York

Pick: Yankees in seven games.
 

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Betting Trends: Angels vs. Yankees

Betting Trends: Angels vs. Yankees

Betting Trends: Angels vs. Yankees

It?s been a while since the New York Yankees made a World Series and you need to go back nine years since they captured one, but the sports betting public is having a difficult time seeing anyone beating them this year.

The Yankees were dominant in the regular season (103-59 record) and continued that pace to start the 2009 post-season, sweeping the Minnesota Twins 3-0 in their American League Divisional Series.

It won?t be a straight path to the World Series however as the Yanks now face the Los Angeles Angels, who were 97-65 in the regular season and also can boast of an ALDS sweep, taking down the Red Sox 3-0.

Online sportsbooks have the Yankees as the odds-on faves to win the World Series at -125, while the Angels are +350 to win it all.

Game 1 of the American League Championship Series goes on Friday and the series price on the Pinstripes is -180 while it is +160 for the Angels.

CC Sabathia will start for the home team Yanks, who are -170 faves in Game 1, and John Lackey will do the same for the Angels, who are +155 with a Total of 8.5.

Check all the baseball playoff lines

Betting Trends:
In the Angels? last nine visits to Yankee Stadium, there have been 7 Overs and 2 Unders.

The Yanks broke open the bank for Sabathia in the offseason and he has paid dividends. In CC?s last 20 home starts, New York has gone 15-5 straight up and in his last eight home starts, the Bronx Bombers are 8-0.

Sabathia?s last eight home starts have also produced 1 Over and 7 Unders.

Lackey has not been particularly strong in the month of October when it comes to wins and losses. In his last eight outings in that month, the Angels have gone 2-6 SU.

Under bettors have cashed in though, as his last 11 October outings have yielded 1 Over and 10 Unders.

Sabathia is a southpaw and in the Angels? last 12 games against lefties, they are 10-2 SU and in their last 10 against LHPs, they have posted 1 Over and 9 Unders.

Lackey is a right-hander and the Yanks have been almost as impressive in their last 10 against righties going 8-2 SU with 2 Overs, 7 Unders, and a Push.

The sports betting public has been betting the Yankees and the Under in the early wagering action at online sportsbooks. The Yankees are seeing 75% of the money and the Under is getting 65% so far.

After seeing the Boston Red Sox capture a couple of World Series titles the past few seasons, you know Yankees fans are pining for another championship.

We?ll find out if they can keep rolling starting this Friday.
 

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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 16
Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST (10/13)
Game 953-954: LA Angels at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Lackey) 16.610; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 17.831
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-170); Under
 
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