ANOTHER CRAZY LOW LINE... Another MNF Setup?

[Theboundbook]

How in the hell can N.O. not cover the 4.5 points on Monday???? But, you know Vegas has been having a hayday with these "Super low sucker lines" in week #1. Indy, Dal, and SD left Vegas and books laughing all the way to the bank...

Can someone explain the logic of this line???

 

[bleedingpurple]

I must be getting better cause I had the Texans and Redskins..

 

[bleedingpurple]

Back to the question, i can't explain the low line. I would figure between 6 and 7? The 49ers are a hard hitting team I guess.. Maybe they think the niners wil bounce back.. New Orleans wsa only 4 -4 ATS on the road last year and 1 - 3 in their lasat 4. Not that it matters for this year but maybe that is the rationale??:shrug:

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

There's a good reason the line is where it is -- the game is AT SF. Actually, I thought it would be -3 or lower. A lot of people severely underestimate homefield, and I've never understood why. It may not be as important in the NFL as it is in college, but it's still a huge advantage.

And it's not as though SF is a slouch. They're a good team who is coming off of a horrible performance, and their coach is one of the biggest ballbusters in the game. They will be ready on Monday. Anyone who thinks SF won't give NO all they can handle is nuts, IMO. I'll actually be surprised if SF doesn't win outright, to be honest. Should be a close game either way, though.

 

[gardenweasel]

reminds me of kansas/georgia tech last saturday....

kansas gets beat 6-3 by n.dakota st at home....then turns around the next week and controls georgia tech....

strange game...

 

[Dr Feelgood]

NO WAY Alex Smith matches points with Brees...NO WAY, SF sucks---don't overthink this one...plus NO had some extra days of rest...

 

[jr11]

Kind of weird I know especially with NO coming off beating Min and a few extra days off, and SF laying an egg against SEA where Smith looked downright terrible. The game falls in many categories to play SF, but you have to ask yourself this question, IF SF gets behind its going to be a blowout, its tough to back a team with a bad QB. At least with the other games your referenced, HOU and WAS have good QBs, and KC has always been one of the toughest places to play and add the bad weather not a shocker esp between 2 divisional teams.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

reminds me of kansas/georgia tech last saturday....

kansas gets beat 6-3 by n.dakota st at home....then turns around the next week and controls georgia tech....

strange game...

Yeah, I guess that was a game where homefield wasn't such a big advantage, was it? :142smilie

But with that game, N. Dakota St. was obviously a look-ahead scenario for KU. With a nationally ranked Ga. Tech on deck, I can understand the lackluster performance against NDSU. Not excusing their loss --they should have won that game no matter what the scenario was - but I can understand why they were flat.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

NO WAY Alex Smith matches points with Brees...NO WAY, SF sucks---don't overthink this one...plus NO had some extra days of rest...

Smith won't being play defense against Brees, though.

Do you think SF sucks because of last week's game? If so, that seems a bit premature to me. A lot of good teams looked like crap in week one; it really doesn't mean much.

You could be right and this game could just be about who has the better talent, but I won't be betting that way.

 

[Hooks]

There's a good reason the line is where it is -- the game is AT SF. Actually, I thought it would be -3 or lower. A lot of people severely underestimate homefield, and I've never understood why. It may not be as important in the NFL as it is in college, but it's still a huge advantage.

And it's not as though SF is a slouch. They're a good team who is coming off of a horrible performance, and their coach is one of the biggest ballbusters in the game. They will be ready on Monday. Anyone who thinks SF won't give NO all they can handle is nuts, IMO. I'll actually be surprised if SF doesn't win outright, to be honest. Should be a close game either way, though.

Great write up, I'm with you bro :mj06:

 

[Old School]

49ers offense is a long way from fixed

49ers offense is a long way from fixed

worth the time to read..

http://www.mercurynews.com/tim-kawakami/ci_16068635?source=rss


this team was 8-8 last season..

8-8 usually suck..

that's why they end up 8-8 or worse

 

[Woodson]

we're not talking about Kansas City in the rain at home against a San Diego team missing two top performers due to a hold out.

This is New Orleans. I don't see them faltering at San Francisco.

But then again, I'll probably tease it with a couple others and play for the middle like last week.

:0074

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Great write up, I'm with you bro :mj06:

Just remember, if NO wins 35-0 I never posted that. :142smilie Kidding.

I'm expecting a good game. I know NO is the better team but with SF being at home on MNF, and with them coming off of laying an egg last week, I expect Singletary to rip his guys a new ass all week and they should be ready come Monday.

GL

 

[Woodson]

Just remember, if NO wins 35-0 I never posted that. :142smilie Kidding.

I'm expecting a good game. I know NO is the better team but with SF being at home on MNF, and with them coming off of laying an egg last week, I expect Singletary to rip his guys a new ass all week and they should be ready come Monday.

GL

But at the same time, New Orleans is a better team. Alex Smith is horrid, and Brees isn't going to lay down just because Singletary ripped his team a new one.

Add the fact that New Orleans played a Minnesota defense and still spread the field and its a disaster... on paper. :142smilie

San Francisco defense isn't in the same category as Minnesotas. I expect N.O. to run and then pass deep. Quick scores.

Not familiar with San Frans specialty team? Is there an impact?

 

[elmer fudd]

don't over think it..when sf gets behind ,:00hour they are done..likely in the 1st qtr..saints by dd..:00hour

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

But at the same time, New Orleans is a better team. Alex Smith is horrid, and Brees isn't going to lay down just because Singletary ripped his team a new one.

Add the fact that New Orleans played a Minnesota defense and still spread the field and its a disaster... on paper. :142smilie

San Francisco defense isn't in the same category as Minnesotas. I expect N.O. to run and then pass deep. Quick scores.

Not familiar with San Frans specialty team? Is there an impact?

Absolutely NO is the better team. I admitted as much above. But then again, Dallas was the better team going into Washington, SD was the better team going into KC, SF was the better team going into Seattle, Indy was the better team going into Houston, etc. I'm sure all the people who were on the faves in those games were saying similar things as to what NO bettors are saying this week.

This is just my opinion, but I think there is a lot more that goes into capping games than just x's and o's. If it were a matter of just picking the better team every week, we would all be loaded. But I will be the first to admit that I put much more emphasis on situational factors than most.

The whole world is going to be on NO. I realize that. They are the better team, and SF looked horrible last week. Maybe I'm crazy for liking SF. I guess we'll see...

GL

 

[Woodson]

I like it. It's a good conversation piece. As I stated on paper there this is a blow out. But as you put it, once the game begins, parity has a way of making things on paper look completely wrong...

Good conversation.

 

[Old School]

Just remember, if NO wins 35-0 I never posted that. :142smilie Kidding.

I'm expecting a good game. I know NO is the better team but with SF being at home on MNF, and with them coming off of laying an egg last week, I expect Singletary to rip his guys a new ass all week and they should be ready come Monday.

GL

Glenn,

an ass chewing can't help inferior Offensive talent..

can they back-door ..sure they may..

can they defeat the defending World Champions in just the second week of this season..WOW..that is a stretch...

a great team plays like shit in week #1 and then goes on the road to play a shit team so the shit team is supoposed to rise to the occassion while the defending Super Bowl Champions play down to the level of their opponent..

anything can happen..but this NO team has never showed me a hint of the "big head" in its transformation into a take your name and kick your ass team..


and SF is more hype than substance simply because of the feel good story of their head coach..

they still haven't established an idenity...can't figure out how to run..3rd from last in the league in attempts last season..this from a supposed "out physical you team" who managed only 12 rushing TD's last season..and averaged 20 points a game when it was thought they had a clue..

Now the Starting QB say..we ain't got a clue.

ones man's humble opinion..

good luck everybody...

:0074

 

[Smitty]

GQ (ha, i never realized quagmire's initials are GQ. that's great.), i couldn't agree more.

i'd say keep an eye on the line. the only reason i played kc last night was because of the line movement. made no sense for that line to drop. same situation here. if the line actually drops, san fran is definitely the play. i think they're probably the play even if the line holds steady. there's no way 70 - 80% aren't on NO with this line.

week two is always my favorite week to bet because of the overreactions to week one. happens every year. clearly SF is not as bad as they looked at seattle.

 

[louthesz]

sf/no

sf/no

"on any given sunday"