ANOTHER CRAZY LOW LINE... Another MNF Setup?

[Glenn Quagmire]

I like it. It's a good conversation piece. As I stated on paper there this is a blow out. But as you put it, once the game begins, parity has a way of making things on paper look completely wrong...

Good conversation.

Well, I guess I don't see SF as being as bad as everyone else does. I don't think they're GREAT by any means, but I do think they will be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 9-win team. They looked awful in game 1, no doubt about it. But again, it's one game. And I watched the entire game, so believe me, I know how lost they looked after the first quarter.

People shouldn't underestimate their defense (they were #4 in total defense last year). The score of Sunday's game made their D look worse than it was. They only gave up 242 yards of offense, and had more first downs than Seattle did. And I totally agree that their offense is a weakness, especially if they can't get the running game going. Their ideal game is a 16-13, grind it out type of game, where the defense carries them and the offense does just enough to put some points on the board.

GL to you, sir. As I said before I could very well be wrong. If I am, I'll be the first to congratulate all of the NO bettors.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Glenn,

an ass chewing can't help inferior Offensive talent..

can they back-door ..sure they may..

can they defeat the defending World Champions in just the second week of this season..WOW..that is a stretch...

a great team plays like shit in week #1 and then goes on the road to play a shit team so the shit team is supoposed to rise to the occassion while the defending Super Bowl Champions play down to the level of their opponent..

anything can happen..but this NO team has never showed me a hint of the "big head" in its transformation into a take your name and kick your ass team..


and SF is more hype than substance simply because of the feel good story of their head coach..

they still haven't established an idenity...can't figure out how to run..3rd from last in the league in attempts last season..this from a supposed "out physical you team" who managed only 12 rushing TD's last season..and averaged 20 points a game when it was thought they had a clue..

Now the Starting QB say..we ain't got a clue.

ones man's humble opinion..

good luck everybody...

:0074

Not sure when an 8-8 team suddenly became a "shit team." .500 would seem to be the definition of average to me, but to each his own.

I agree that their offense is a concern. But I like their defense and I don't think NO is running up the score on them. If they do, you're probably right in that SF will be in trouble.

As for being the better team, again, I don't deny that. But every week there are people on here saying 'Team A can't beat Team B because Team B is just too good.' And every week at least some of those people are wrong.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

GQ (ha, i never realized quagmire's initials are GQ. that's great.), i couldn't agree more.

i'd say keep an eye on the line. the only reason i played kc last night was because of the line movement. made no sense for that line to drop. same situation here. if the line actually drops, san fran is definitely the play. i think they're probably the play even if the line holds steady. there's no way 70 - 80% aren't on NO with this line.

week two is always my favorite week to bet because of the overreactions to week one. happens every year. clearly SF is not as bad as they looked at seattle.

Completely agree about the overreactions. Here's a good example... Seattle looked great against SF and Denver looked bad against JAX last week, but IMO Seattle will probably get their asses handed to them in Denver next week. It will be quite a shock to the local media who now think Seattle is going to the Super Bowl after that first game. :142smilie

 

[NBA_Kid]

How in the hell can N.O. not cover the 4.5 points on Monday???? But, you know Vegas has been having a hayday with these "Super low sucker lines" in week #1. Indy, Dal, and SD left Vegas and books laughing all the way to the bank...

Can someone explain the logic of this line???

There are 3 games where a team is -1....

Ravens -1 to the Bengals

Patriots -1 to the Jets

Browns -1 to the Chiefs

Ravens and Patriots are very big public plays....Granted its only Tuesday....Then again,the Patriots are The biggest public play on Sunday....And i`m pretty sure they will remind the biggest....Ravens are not to far behind.....

My point is....I believe laying 1 point as a big public play in the NFL is a sucker line.

I could see both the Bengals and Jets winning SU.

Chiefs looked pretty good last night....They could beat the Browns.

With the other games.....I kind of like the Miami Dolphins +5.5 against the Vikings...I`ll see how the lines pan out toward Sunday.

GL

 

[gardenweasel]

how many yards did k.c. gain vs san diego?...over 200?.....i don`t think so....

special teams turned it..........when a team gets in a hole and mo swings to the home side,things can get hairy....:shrug:

theres an odor to this one(or maybe it`s my upper lip?)....:SIB

 

[gardenweasel]

There are 3 games where a team is -1....

Ravens -1 to the Bengals

Patriots -1 to the Jets

Browns -1 to the Chiefs

Ravens and Patriots are very big public plays....Granted its only Tuesday....Then again,the Patriots are The biggest public play on Sunday....And i`m pretty sure they will remind the biggest....Ravens are not to far behind.....

My point is....I believe laying 1 point as a big public play in the NFL is a sucker line.

I could see both the Bengals and Jets winning SU.

Chiefs looked pretty good last night....They could beat the Browns.

With the other games.....I kind of like the Miami Dolphins +5.5 against the Vikings...I`ll see how the lines pan out toward Sunday.

GL

the ravens reeeallly strugle vs cincy..good passing teams give us trouble.....

but this year it looks like we might be able to pass with them...

 

[Smitty]

There are 3 games where a team is -1....

Ravens -1 to the Bengals

Patriots -1 to the Jets

Browns -1 to the Chiefs

Ravens and Patriots are very big public plays....Granted its only Tuesday....Then again,the Patriots are The biggest public play on Sunday....And i`m pretty sure they will remind the biggest....Ravens are not to far behind.....

My point is....I believe laying 1 point as a big public play in the NFL is a sucker line.

I could see both the Bengals and Jets winning SU.

Chiefs looked pretty good last night....They could beat the Browns.

With the other games.....I kind of like the Miami Dolphins +5.5 against the Vikings...I`ll see how the lines pan out toward Sunday.

GL

you are dead on, kid. i love the bengals and the jets (did i just say that? really?) this sunday. not sure about the chiefs. may be a bit of an overreaction to their win over san diego.

 

[gardenweasel]

you are dead on, kid. i love the bengals and the jets (did i just say that? really?) this sunday. not sure about the chiefs. may be a bit of an overreaction to their win over san diego.

i kinda like the skins getting a trey vs houston,too...

 

[NBA_Kid]

you are dead on, kid. i love the bengals and the jets (did i just say that? really?) this sunday. not sure about the chiefs. may be a bit of an overreaction to their win over san diego.

I agree on the Chiefs....You never know with them....A matter of fact....If anything they might have a letdown off that game last night....That was a huge win for them....When it comes down to it....Browns and Chiefs both suck.

Even though the Pats and Ravens are on the rode.....You can make a case for both of them to be at least -3....I believe that....Both are only -1....we`ll see what happens sunday.

 

[LDB]

Right now, you dont know what SF team will show up on Monday night.. Can Alex Smith gain any type of confidence? .....

:shrug:

 

[jr11]

I think we should have a thread like this every week...

Kid, regarding Miami, I'm just not a fan of playing a team second week on the road after covering the first one as a public play in my opinion, especially when it was against a divisional foe in Buffalo. It is a short line though, and have to assume most will be backing Minny at 0-1 and most likely teasing them too.

I usually am not one to play big favorites, but Green Bay should blast Buffalo, no Ryan Grant assume Rodgers wings the ball a little more, and can't see the Bills scoring more than 10-13 points.

jr11

 

[Woodson]

how many yards did k.c. gain vs san diego?...over 200?.....i don`t think so....

special teams turned it..........when a team gets in a hole and mo swings to the home side,things can get hairy....:shrug:

theres an odor to this one(or maybe it`s my upper lip?)....:SIB

I believe it was 197 total yards with 160 special team yards.

Great pint.

 

[BigFatLooza]

When a line looks too good to be true, then it probably is (at least it seems to be the case more times than not). At first glance, it looks like N.O. would be a 'lock'. But I'd be careful if I were you. You got two things to worry about if you like N.O.: 1. Line looks too good to be true, 2. San Fran lost by more than 17 pts. this past game (I forget the name of the poster that discovered that teams in the NFL that lose by 17 pts. or more tend to cover the spread the very next game). And as for Smith and Gore looking terrible, how many times have we seen players look like s**t one week and then superstars the next week?

 

[Smitty]

i kinda like the skins getting a trey vs houston,too...

GW, i know what you're saying on that one, but i'm not sure if i'll play that game. both teams are coming off big wins over division rivals that they haven't had much success against. although it was probably bigger for houston, i can see them building on it more than washington. either team could easily suffer a let down. i'd lean towards houston, but then again, i have a huge anti-mcnabb bias.

 

[Smitty]

I think we should have a thread like this every week...
jr11

couldn't agree more. isn't that what this website is all about? helping each other win a few bucks?

 

[gardenweasel]

GW, i know what you're saying on that one, but i'm not sure if i'll play that game. both teams are coming off big wins over division rivals that they haven't had much success against. although it was probably bigger for houston, i can see them building on it more than washington. either team could easily suffer a let down. i'd lean towards houston, but then again, i have a huge anti-mcnabb bias.

good points...i`m here to learn....:0074

 

[smurphy]

Right now, you dont know what SF team will show up on Monday night.. Can Alex Smith gain any type of confidence? .....

:shrug:

I'm not sure but I think the only prime time game he ever started was against Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl. He was atrocious last week. ......so basically the line is so low that the ONLY possible play would be against all logic any of us know and take the Niners.

I'm not touching it.:0074

 

[MrChristo]

Well, I guess I don't see SF as being as bad as everyone else does. I don't think they're GREAT by any means, but I do think they will be somewhere in the neighborhood of a 9-win team. They looked awful in game 1, no doubt about it. But again, it's one game. And I watched the entire game, so believe me, I know how lost they looked after the first quarter.

People shouldn't underestimate their defense (they were #4 in total defense last year). The score of Sunday's game made their D look worse than it was. They only gave up 242 yards of offense, and had more first downs than Seattle did. And I totally agree that their offense is a weakness, especially if they can't get the running game going. Their ideal game is a 16-13, grind it out type of game, where the defense carries them and the offense does just enough to put some points on the board.

GL to you, sir. As I said before I could very well be wrong. If I am, I'll be the first to congratulate all of the NO bettors.

I agree 100% giggity-man...

...home team, better defense...anything over 4 is too high imho, so I'll probably be taking SF with absolutely zero conspiracy theories to back me up! :0corn

 

[Cie]

Completely agree about the overreactions. Here's a good example... Seattle looked great against SF and Denver looked bad against JAX last week, but IMO Seattle will probably get their asses handed to them in Denver next week. It will be quite a shock to the local media who now think Seattle is going to the Super Bowl after that first game. :142smilie

Denver outgained Jax, converted more first downs, matched Jax on 3rd D efficiency and held the ball longer. A fumble and an INT did them in last week on the road.

This week, they face Seattle team with injury concerns that drummed SF at home. A closer look into that boxscore reveals the Seahags rolled up a paltry 240yds of offense. Alex Smith converting on 1/15 3rd downs and throwing 2 INTs(including a pick-6) had plenty to do with that blowout, as did horrible red-zone efficiency.

Seahags are overrated overall and thin up front. Denver returns home coming off of a loss, with a solid, yet underrated QB, better offensive talent, and imo a better coaching staff. Denver can be exploited by the run, but Seattle does not have the personnel to do so. I like Den by a TD


BTW, the Saints line is accurate imo. Saints are a roughly 7 point fav over SF on a nuetral field in my book, so a line of 4-5 @ SF makes perfect sense to me.

Good thread.....

 

[gardenweasel]

the reason i was considering the skins as a home dog was because i`m in b`more and we get the "skinny" on the skins....theres a vibe about the team with shanahan and mcnabb in d.c....

ithe colts lost bob sanders last week in the first quarter...that`s akin to the steelers losing polamalu....he`s that important to that defense....

it`ll be interesting to see if free agent foster cracks the redskin defense like he did the sanders-less colts...

laron landry made 17 tackles last week vs dallas and deangelo hall looks like the deangelo hall we all remember from va tech....

very much looking forward to watching this game.....should be interesting...