another solid play for tuesday mlb.........

[gman2]

ytd......(58-52....+16.51)

havent been playing many games the last few weeks but been having good success picking and choosing. hudson was amazing last night. playing this play for the same amount as i did oakland last night:

2.5 units......florida/los angeles under 7 (-130)

not really thrilled about laying triple juice on the under 7 but i just dont see this one being threatened at all.

*dodgers have been an under machine on the road this year

*last nights game was basically an aberration and i cant remember the last time the dodgers have had back to back high scoring games. actually did some research and found that after a dodgers game has 10 total runs scored the previous night, the next nights game is low scoring.

*since the all-star break, the dodgers have had 5 games where 10 runs or more were scored. the following nights games have had these scores:

2-0
5-2
1-0
4-1
3-1

*combine that with the fact that both these pitchers have strong numbers recently:

nomo.....won 4 of 5 starts....1-0 w/1.29 era this yr vs florida
beckett....3-1 w/1.04 era at home his last 4

marlins have also given beckett lame run support lately (just one combined in his last two starts)


all in all, i see this one as a solid under.

 

[TORONTO-VIGILANTE]

you've sold me on that play...

let's get em.

gl tonite.

 

[homerh]

good luck on your total

 

[JMAC]

HELLO
MY BOOK HAS IT AT 6 1/2,WHAT DO YOU THINK?
GL
JMAC

 

[gman2]

jmac:

honestly, i still think it stays under the 6.5 w/o a problem but if that was my only option, id play it for about half as much.

this is just my philosophy, but when betting an under, i dont have a problem going from a 1/2 run DOWN to an even run. for example:

instead of betting under 9.5, if i can find a 9.0 at (+100) or something, i usually will grab it. the logic being that i cant LOSE by playing that 9.0 instead of the 9.5. i can push, but i cant LOSE. and by taking the lower total, i can save myself some juice. of course, from time to time you might push instead of win, but its not a LOSS

anytime (betting an UNDER, that is) you go from an even run down to a 1/2 run (from 10 down to 9.5, from 9 down to 8.5, from 8 down to 7.5, and in this case, from 7 down to 6.5) it really becomes a matter of personal preference. some people are vehemently against it. my own opinion is that i normally just reduce my play a little if i cant get the ideal number.

like i said, i still think this one stays under that 6.5. the only drawback is that a late 3-3 tie would bust your total.