AntiConsensus 2009

[BobbyBlueChip]

This is the time of the year that I do well by going straight anti-consensus. Taken from another site, here is the consensus as of 12:20 CDT

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct
12:25 PM CSU Northridge +20 543 22.62% Memphis -20 1858 77.38%
9:40 PM Morgan St. +16.5 554 25.76% Oklahoma -16.5 1597 74.24%
7:20 PM American U. +16.5 596 27.47% Villanova -16.5 1574 72.53%
7:10 PM Minnesota +4 679 28.84% Texas -4 1675 71.16%
7:25 PM Akron +12.5 645 28.96% Gonzaga -12.5 1582 71.04%
9:40 PM Binghamton +22 758 35.31% Duke -22 1389 64.69%
2:30 PM Northern Iowa +8.5 825 35.65% Purdue -8.5 1489 64.35%
2:50 PM Radford +25 802 36.52% North Carolina -25 1394 63.48%
3:00 PM Chattanooga +20.5 819 36.88% Connecticut -20.5 1402 63.12%
7:10 PM Michigan +5.5 1035 44.90% Clemson -5.5 1270 55.10%
12:20 PM Butler +1.5 1180 46.64% Louisiana State -1.5 1350 53.36%
4:55 PM Mississippi St. +6.5 1249 52.22% Washington -6.5 1143 47.78%
9:50 PM VCU +8 1279 54.19% UCLA -8 1081 45.81%
12:30 PM Texas A&M +3 1374 56.80% Brigham Young -3 1045 43.20%
9:55 PM Western Kentucky +5 1364 57.29% Illinois -5 1017 42.71%
2:55 PM Maryland +2 1483 60.19% California -2 981 39.81%

System calls for fading any team backed by 70+%. Since 2002, system has gone 41-28 and has made a profit for the two years before that (Didn't keep the records.) Simply, This is a time of the year that you don't want to be on the side of the public. Good Luck to all in the tourney!!

Play on:
CSU Northridge
Morgan St
American
Minnesota
Akron

 

[Clem D]

good luck bbc.
Love akron, but im on memphis

 

[greggraffin]

i dont like that mem is number one pick, im going to highly consider hedging my tail end parlay with csu plus 20

 

[el JB]

as a long shot i'll take all 5 for a benjie for a CRAZY "2K":142smilie but i REALLY wouldn't be surprised 3 hit

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

I didn't go back to check the records, but it "seems" that this system is roughly 0 for the last 8 playing against #1 and #2 seed in the first round. Not that that means to back them, but if you like a play, this system shouldn't talk you out of it.

 

[IX_Bender]

I remember the favorite fest last year in the first two days. Lets not hope for a repeat. As for the top 2 seeds, thats where you get the most gravy ~ points which makes it enticing.

 

[Woodson]

Hate to see Memphis as the number 1 pick....

 

[PJ12]

Hate to see Memphis as the number 1 pick....

Yea me too but they wanna get people started off with an ez winner just to lose it all back later :00hour

MEMPHIS ROLLS:mj06:

 

[MadJack]

good luck this tourney, bobby!

 

[TheSportsPredictor]

Northridge has lost 13 games. Only once did it lose by more than 20.

Memphis is 6-4 ATS when giving 20 or more. It covered against Fairfield (17-15), Marist (10-23), Drexel (15-14), Rice (10-22), SMU (9-21), and Tulane (14-17).

Northridge did lose to Drexel SU on the road early in the season. It also lost to Rider, a good team in Drexel's conference.

Sagarin's got Memphis at 16 points better than Northridge. Northridge has a better Sag rating than any of the 20-point dogs Memphis whipped. Big West, Colonial and Metro Atlantic are equally rated conferences. Conference USA isn't that much higher than them, and would probably be much less so if not for Memphis.

I think Northridge is the play. Don't see any compelling reasons to take Memphis to win by a huge number.

 

[IX_Bender]

Great post SportsPredictor, we need more of this type of real tangible info than the 100 BIG BIG SUPER posts.

As for Memphis, they are very very streaky. Even in their blowout wins they can go on 20-2 spurts then give up 8-10 consecutive points to the other team they were just dominating. I have a hard time betting them for or against and think the spread will be decided on this game in the last 2 minutes of 'garbage time'. More exciting to watch a game than bet on a coin flip... yes. Do we have to bet on all 3 12:30 games... no.

 

[zac]

looks like Illinois is now a play- 73% on W. Kentucky. Does this match your source?

 

[rrc]

Everything I've read this week has been W. Kentucky...how they beat Lville earlier in the yr...how well they did in last yrs tourney....

If the public is on a dog I've always been taught to lay the points..

I'm on the Illini

 

[Smitty]

good luck bbc.
Love akron, but im on memphis

CLEM D??? CLEM D??? where the heck have you been?

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System Record 2-3

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds
7:10 PM Morehead St. +20.5 291 22.13% Louisville -20.5 1024 77.87%
12:15 PM Stephen F. Austin +11.5 619 23.15% Syracuse -11.5 2055 76.85%
3:00 PM Cornell +12.5 622 24.55% Missouri -12.5 1912 75.45%
2:55 PM East Tennessee St. +19.5 636 25.75% Pittsburgh -19.5 1834 74.25%
9:55 PM Wisconsin +2.5 710 26.17% Florida St. -2.5 2003 73.83%
12:30 PM North Dakota State +9.5 741 27.66% Kansas -9.5 1938 72.34%
9:50 PM Robert Morris +16 729 30.35% Michigan St -16 1673 69.65%
9:40 PM Cleveland St. +8 866 33.44% Wake Forest -8 1724 66.56%
8:30 PM Tulsa +6 153 34.77% Auburn -6 287 65.23%
7:00 PM Miami-Florida +5 172 37.97% Florida -5 281 62.03%
12:30 PM Utah St. +4.5 1058 39.08% Marquette -4.5 1649 60.92%
2:45 PM Temple +5.5 1066 40.81% Arizona St. -5.5 1546 59.19%
7:25 PM Portland St. +10.5 1018 41.20% Xavier -10.5 1453 58.80%
3:00 PM Dayton +9 1085 42.75% West Virginia -9 1453 57.25%
9:40 PM Siena +3 1256 47.36% Ohio St. -3 1396 52.64%
9:30 PM Kansas St. +5 210 48.84% San Diego St. -5 220 51.16%
12:25 PM Tennessee -2 1358 50.75% Oklahoma St. +2 1318 49.25%
7:20 PM Southern California -2.5 1394 52.86% Boston College +2.5 1243 47.14%
7:10 PM Arizona +1.5 1481 55.82% Utah -1.5 1172 44.18%

Play on
Morehead St
Stephen Austin
Cornell
E. Tenn St
Wisky
North Dakota State

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System Record 5-6


Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds
5:40 PM Michigan +7 376 27.73% Oklahoma -7 980 72.27% View View
1:05 PM UCLA +2 414 28.67% Villanova -2 1030 71.33% View View
5:45 PM Louisiana State +11 570 36.54% North Carolina -11 990 63.46% View View
3:25 PM Texas A&M +10.5 664 42.51% Connecticut -10.5 898 57.49% View View
5:40 PM Purdue +1 709 43.23% Washington -1 931 56.77% View View
8:05 PM Texas +7.5 653 49.70% Duke -7.5 661 50.30% View View
3:20 PM Maryland +9.5 880 54.02% Memphis -9.5 749 45.98% View View
8:00 PM Western Kentucky +11 926 68.44% Gonzaga -11 427 31.56% View View

Play on
Michigan
UCLA

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

LET'S LET THE MONEY TRAIN CONTINUE!!!

System Record 5-8


Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds
12:10 PM Arizona St. +2.5 496 26.97% Syracuse -2.5 1343 73.03% View View
4:40 PM Marquette +4 551 31.50% Missouri -4 1198 68.50% View View
5:20 PM Siena +11.5 371 33.01% Louisville -11.5 753 66.99% View View
2:20 PM Wisconsin +3.5 407 34.67% Xavier -3.5 767 65.33% View View
4:50 PM Southern California +3.5 414 35.06% Michigan St -3.5 767 64.94% View View
2:40 PM Cleveland St. +2.5 479 40.66% Arizona -2.5 699 59.34% View View
2:30 PM Dayton +7.5 761 44.40% Kansas -7.5 953 55.60% View View
2:50 PM Oklahoma St. +8 765 45.45% Pittsburgh -8 918 54.55% View View

 

[Smitty]

bbc, thank you for posting this every day. good stuff.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System record 5-9

The regression to the mean is sooo sweet. FU doggies


Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds
7:07 PM Purdue +6.5 521 28.15% Connecticut -6.5 1330 71.85% View View
9:37 PM Missouri +4.5 595 34.75% Memphis -4.5 1117 65.25% View View
7:00 PM James Madison +6.5 363 45.21% Old Dominion -6.5 440 54.79% View View
7:27 PM Xavier +7 826 49.55% Pittsburgh -7 841 50.45% View View
10:07 PM Villanova +2 1042 55.57% Duke -2 833 44.43% View View

Play on:
Purdue

 

[LDB]

GL BOBBY