AntiConsensus

BobbyBlueChip

Trustee
Forum Member
Dec 27, 2000
20,756
324
83
53
Belly of the Beast
It's that time of the year again when I have to forget EVERYTHING that I learned throughout the season and go straight anti-consensus. I'll be using another consensus site as I don't want to go against the sharpies at bestbettor.com :)

Buyer beware : I'm having an awful foots season.

Stats as of Tonight
Team/Votes/%/Spread/Team/Votes/%
Cincinnati 234 66.10% -8 North Texas 120 33.90%

Play on North Texas +8
 

IE

Administrator
Forum Admin
Forum Member
Mar 15, 1999
95,440
223
63
just posting an article from this morning i came across, good luck tonight BBC and the rest of the bowl season.

=========

Posted on Tue, Dec. 17, 2002

Bourbon Street blues not for UNT
By Chad Conine
Special to the Star-Telegram

NEW ORLEANS - The right words roll off the tongue like holiday greetings.

North Texas isn't the only football team that seemingly has a script of all the right things to say, things players and coaches pull out at the right time. But the Mean Green might have been the most genuine in preparation for tonight's New Orleans Bowl.

They remember being wide-eyed participants in the 2001 New Orleans Bowl, when there was laughter at their 5-6 record. The UNT contingent apparently found comfort in all that Bourbon Street has to offer, and then the Mean Green was soundly defeated by Colorado State 45-20.

"Last year we were happy to be here," UNT running back Kevin Galbreath said. "This year we're happy to be here, and we've come down here for one reason -- to win."

Galbreath has it down. Tip the hat to the host city and chase the compliment with the team's creed to go after victory.

But how much good will all the "we're more focused" talk do when UNT (7-5) faces Cincinnati (7-6) in the Louisiana Superdome? Kickoff is set for 6:05.

There's evidence to suggest that the Mean Green has a better chance to win this time, regardless of how the players say they're approaching the game.

For one thing, no matter what happens against the Bearcats, UNT has clinched its first winning season since a 7-4-1 record in 1994. Also, the clich? that defense wins championships has proved itself -- the Mean Green notched its second consecutive Sun Belt title by dominating the conference's defensive statistics.

Now UNT has to figure out how to translate all its positive energy into more positives on the field.

"The main thing is to move camp from North Texas to New Orleans," linebacker Taylor Casey said. "We have to remember that this is game week. It's nothing different. When we go on the practice field, it's just like we're back in Denton."

Casey has been among many UNT players and coaches who have said that the atmosphere in the team's New Orleans practices improved. He said the defense was flying around in workouts, whereas last year was "like a walk-through."

But what matters more? How the Mean Green functions for two hours during practice or what the players do when Bourbon Street calls in the later hours? The consensus among them is that they've done little more than make brief appearances in the French Quarter's hot spots.

"I haven't been to Bourbon Street once," cornerback Don McGee said. "Most of the people have been staying in the hotel. If they do go, they're back way before it's time to be."

Wide receiver George Marshall said he hasn't been to Bourbon Street either, and doesn't plan to until after the game. That's not a team rule, but the Mean Green has an agreement that whatever happens the night before, it can't have an effect when the pads go on.

"We had to promise [coach Darrell Dickey] that once we got to practice, we've got to come out and work no matter how we're feeling," Marshall said. "Some people are trashed, but you can't let your body language show it."

The sick feeling UNT experienced in the wake of the Colorado State loss a year ago serves as a sobering reminder. Changing the result of the trip to the Crescent City is really what all the talk has been about.

"We felt real bad coming back on the bus on the way home last year," Galbreath said. "We don't want to have that feeling again. We want to come back with a winning feeling."

----
North Texas update: Defense has been UNT's trademark since it held Texas scoreless in the second half of the season opener. The Mean Green defense has a total of 26 scoreless quarters, including three shutouts.

Because it scores only 18.8 points per game, the UNT offense at first glance would appear to be the team's weakness. However, the Mean Green has run the ball effective, with Kevin Galbreath and Patrick Cobbs combining for more than 1,900 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns. UNT often ran successfully on third-and-long late in the season.

The Mean Green's offense uses the run to set up long passing plays off play action. But inconsistency probably has been UNT's biggest weakness. When starting quarterback Scott Hall was injured in the season opener at Texas, the Mean Green had to begin developing redshirt freshman Andrew Smith. His progress has been slowed by few passing opportunities in a conservative offense.

What UNT must do to win: The defense has to uphold its reputation by limiting the Bearcats, especially early. In the 2001 New Orleans Bowl, Colorado State put the Mean Green in a 17-0 hole eight minutes into the game. The UNT offense has to establish the running game and make a few key plays through the air.

Cincinnati update: The Bearcats battled through a tumultuous first two months,losing five of seven. But they showed resilience in winning five of their final six regular-season games to gain bowl eligibility and grab a share of the Conference USA championship.

Cincinnati's statistical profile suggests that it does a lot of things well. Quarterback Gino Guidugli has passed for more than 3,000 yards and 21 touchdowns. He has two key targets in wide receivers LaDaris Vann (70 receptions, 844 yards) and Jon Olinger (20.1 yards per catch on 50 receptions). Running back DeMarco McCleskey has 1,276 rushing yards and defensive end Antwan Peek leads the team in total tackles (97), sacks (6) and tackles for losses (21).

Like UNT, the Bearcats struggled in nonconference play, going 1-4 outside Conference USA. Also, Cincinnati has lost at the Louisiana Superdome this season, 35-17 to Tulane on Oct. 12.

What Cincinnati must do to win: Cincinnati needs some quick-strike scores, possibly from Guidugli to Olinger, to put the UNT defense on its heels. The Bearcats' defense has to bottle up Galbreath and Cobbs and dare Smith to make plays.
 

BobbyBlueChip

Trustee
Forum Member
Dec 27, 2000
20,756
324
83
53
Belly of the Beast
Good Luck to you, too, IE. My favorite quote from the article was "Some people are trashed, but you can't let your body language show it." I wonder what the hell happened last year

For Wednesday

Team/Votes/%/Spread/Team/Votes/%
Marshall 334 70.76% -2.5 Louisville 138 29.24%

Play on Louisville +2.5
 

Vegas Dave

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 23, 2002
650
0
0
Hey Bobby,

How do you use that site? I went to check it out, and I went to consensus picks, and for the Marshall - Louisville I only see a total of 23 picks :confused:

Maybe you can help me out when you have a minute.
 

BobbyBlueChip

Trustee
Forum Member
Dec 27, 2000
20,756
324
83
53
Belly of the Beast
The sites not bestbettor as there is not much of a sample yet. I use a different site and it's against Jack's rules to post it on these forums so I can't help you, but I'll post the numbers the night before the games. It works better than the day of the game as you don't get the propensity of the same player posting on the same game once the line moves and you also get selections that are from people who don't worry about gameday news or line movement.

Good Luck
 

Vegas Dave

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 23, 2002
650
0
0
Bobby I do the same thing as you, and I thought that BestBettor was one of the site you used.

I try to use as many sources as I can because some books may get one-sided action on a game, and another place may get the opposite. But there are games that many books have in common, and those are the ones I'm trying to pick out. :D

Thats probably what you're trying to do as well...
 

mw

Registered User
Forum Member
Sep 29, 2000
660
1
0
dallas
From the same site BBC's using:

258 on the over
124 on the under

For what it's worth.
 

BobbyBlueChip

Trustee
Forum Member
Dec 27, 2000
20,756
324
83
53
Belly of the Beast
System Record 1-1

Team/Votes/%/Spread/Team/Votes/%
Texas Tech 414 73.53% -5.5 Clemson 149 26.47%

Play on Clemson +5.5
Yummy!!!

thx for the advice, goldcup, on waiting for 3. I will usually wait until playing the dog until near gametime unless i'm a half point over a key number. The play here is for the system only as this is the line that the picks were based on. Should be no reason that this line doesn't get to 7. After all, Tech did whip up on Texas. :)
 

goldcupsports

Registered User
Forum Member
Dec 26, 1999
866
0
0
Wichita,KS
I would venture to guess that offshore action is about opposite of the numbers you have.:) I see many guys out there saying they are fading the public today and taking Clemson+ whatever. To me it seems like the Public is on Clemson.
 

Vegas Dave

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 23, 2002
650
0
0
Once you see the numbers, I'm not sure how you can tell which money is smart or public, so I guess you just have to say all of it is public.

There is over 70% action offshore as well on Texas Tech.
 

volfan

Elephant Hunter
Forum Member
Jul 18, 1999
5,310
15
0
52
BIG ORANGE LAND!!
"If there is 70% action offshore on Texas Tech why does the line keep dropping?"

To keep the square money coming in?:shrug:
 

goldcupsports

Registered User
Forum Member
Dec 26, 1999
866
0
0
Wichita,KS
Vegas Dave,

There are a few ways to tell if it is sharp money coming in or public. You have to watch a few books offshore and compare them to market. Sure you are never 100% sure but more times than not the sharper books number will beat a public book.
 

Vegas Dave

Registered User
Forum Member
Jul 23, 2002
650
0
0
Yeah but how do you know sharp money is right? Basically you don't know what money is sharp or public, but you do know that most books will have games in common that they will need to win, thats all I'm trying to pick out.

I'm just curious how can you tell if a sports book is sharp? I watch the offshore sportsbooks as well. Look at a site like wagerline, there is about 4500 people that do their NFL picks, but I think it was only 1500 are on the positive side, so that gives you a good idea of who the public likes. Its not always accurate though...

Another thing, line movements don't necessarily reflect action on any certain side. And I see the line moving up, not down.
 

gardenweasel

el guapo
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2002
40,581
229
63
"the bunker"
sharp-square

sharp-square

mostly b.s.......makes guys feel like they know something that they don`t..just go to wagerline and check the consensus....the so-called sharps will come back on the "anti" public play....now,you`re a sharpie,too...:rolleyes:
 
Last edited:

gardenweasel

el guapo
Forum Member
Jan 10, 2002
40,581
229
63
"the bunker"
goldcup

goldcup

that came out wrong....what i`m saying is what vegasdave was saying....how do you know which sportsbook is sharp?......my point is many seem to think anti`public consesnsus is automatically sharp...i was being facetious....what kind of inside info do you have that would indicate "smart' money coming in?.....it would help many of us to know....thanks.
 

goldcupsports

Registered User
Forum Member
Dec 26, 1999
866
0
0
Wichita,KS
I would not call it "inside info" That phrase I would call a "square comment" LOL. Really I am a line watcher and after so many years you start to respect some shops numbers over others. So I really key on the sharper books moves and keep a eye on the rest of the world to see there reaction. It is getting tougher to do now a days since 90% of the books out there are cl0ones.
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top