Any help would be appreciated. Hedging

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The Sponge

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I have been racking my brains out trying to figure out the best possible thing to do here and this is what i come up with.
I have a six team parlay. 5 are in. I have ND plus 9. If they cover its worth 4 grand. For a certain reason im not to confident with this pick. Im not a hedge guy but i feel i need to tonight. To many things in my opinion are lining up against me. Here is the best thing i have come up with. I was thinking to take LSU on the money line for around 700. If i lose i lose around 2100 but win the bet which is 4 grand. If they win and don't cover i win 4700. If they crush them i win about 6 hundred. This team has been a huge thorn in my side all year. I do know if i take lsu for about two grand. im guaranteed somewhere around 1800 to 2000. Maybe one of you guys has a better thought. I think the line is gonna go up which is another problem. Any ideas?
 
Blackman

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The Sponge said:
I have been racking my brains out trying to figure out the best possible thing to do here and this is what i come up with.
I have a six team parlay. 5 are in. I have ND plus 9. If they cover its worth 4 grand. For a certain reason im not to confident with this pick. Im not a hedge guy but i feel i need to tonight. To many things in my opinion are lining up against me. Here is the best thing i have come up with. I was thinking to take LSU on the money line for around 700. If i lose i lose around 2100 but win the bet which is 4 grand. If they win and don't cover i win 4700. If they crush them i win about 6 hundred. This team has been a huge thorn in my side all year. I do know if i take lsu for about two grand. im guaranteed somewhere around 1800 to 2000. Maybe one of you guys has a better thought. I think the line is gonna go up which is another problem. Any ideas?
Click to expand...


I think you've come up with the best solution. Locks in profit and still gives you a shot at a huge potential payday with the 9 point middle.
 
T

The Sponge

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Blackman said:
I think you've come up with the best solution. Locks in profit and still gives you a shot at a huge potential payday with the 9 point middle.
Click to expand...

blackman you ever have one of those teams that always seems to kill you? Its this LSU team for me. I just have this feeling no matter what i do in this game this team will somehow find a way to get me. i should just take the 2 grand.. ahhhh. I was thinking of waiting till half time. but if i do it will be 28-0 lsu and then i will be stuck losing money
 
T

The Sponge

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if they win by nine i think that would bring the biggest payday. anyone know what a parlay pays if you hit 5 and one ties. geez i didnt even think of this.
 
vinnie

vinnie

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Here
LSU Spread -7 ( -130 ) Risking 2000.00 to Win 1538.46

you got mail
 
vinnie

vinnie

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Here
take the money buudy

someone had a 300 dollar exotic wager to win 3300 (11-1 odds) on the USC/Michigan game to go UNDER 37.5 points

Well, at half time

with the score tied 3-3, he could have hedge because he could have gone OVER 21 1/2 for the second half and receive plus $1.05 on it.

He could have LOCKED in a 1700 dollar profit or at the very least, covered his 300 dollar wager so no matter the outcome, he couldn't lose...

he decided he wanted to GO FOR IT...



Well, you all know the outcome... :sadwave:

Don't get GREEDY !
 
T

The Sponge

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vinnie said:
take the money buudy

someone had a 300 dollar exotic wager to win 3300 (11-1 odds) on the USC/Michigan game to go UNDER 37.5 points

Well, at half time

with the score tied 3-3, he could have hedge because he could have gone OVER 21 1/2 for the second half and receive plus $1.05 on it.

He could have LOCKED in a 1700 dollar profit or at the very least, covered his 300 dollar wager so no matter the outcome, he couldn't lose...

he decided he wanted to GO FOR IT...



Well, you all know the outcome... :sadwave:

Don't get GREEDY !
Click to expand...

if that freaking game would have stayed under i wouldn't even be having this thought of hedging. what really kicks me in the ass is that halftime line and like a fool i let it slip by when i could just feel what was about to happen. I got my little brother to take the under for the game and when i read the halftime line he says "what do you think" I said i think there might be an aerial show but hopefully it stops before its to late. Sure enough i screwed myself.
 
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turksure

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if you got the cash i would bet a little onl lsu-7-135 and risk some on the ml @-310 or so. Could be a big payday. 20 or so years ago I hit a middle for $4,000 on each side for a plus $8,000 win on OHIO ST. TD in the last minute new years day bowl game. Lost every other bet I made that day. Still plus over $6,000 for the day.

good luck on the big payday. turk
 
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R

roc612

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How about this:
Buy LSU down to -7 -140 or
Buy LSU down to -6.5 - 150 for about 1500 to win 1000
If the game lands LSU by 7 or 8 you win both sides If it lands LSU by NINE( your parlay wins at a reduced amount and your LSU buy down bet wins as well)
Small hedge locks in at least a profit of 700.00 if LSU blows out ND)
If ND loses by less than 6.5 you still win at least 2500.00 and whats wrong with that.Start out 2007 cashing a decent ticket is my suggestion>
Best Of Luck
ROC
 
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roc612

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Turksure I guess we were typing the same idea at the same time-
I like your thinking on it!!
Sponge you could even buy it down to minus six LSU at about -160.That gives you three numbers to win on(6,7,8) and one number(9)to push ND on and still cash a reduced parlay winner
 
T

The Sponge

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im having a hard time finding anywhere where you can buy points at bodog. The site i have the parlay has the game at 9 and its my hometown book. the money line is -340 bodog is 310. I kinda hate to try to middle my hometown book. Real nice guy and it would maybe seal my fate with him.
 
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