CFN's Writeup:
How are the picks so far? SU: 28-5 ... ATS: 20-8
Sun Belt Game of the Week
Florida Atlantic (1-3) at Middle Tennessee (1-3), 8:00 EST, ESPN2
Why to watch: The defending Sun Belt champion kicks off its Sun Belt season after failing miserably in its last two games. Florida Atlantic was supposed to take a big step up this season in its overall play, but after losing to Texas, Michigan State and Minnesota by a combined score of 106 to 13, the program showed it still ha a long way to go. However, it?s all Sun Belt the rest of the way, and the pieces are still there to win a second straight title. Middle Tennessee is in a spoiler role and it?s not even October. The Blue Raiders were good enough to beat Maryland and came within a shoestring tackle on a Hail Mary of beating Kentucky, but losses to Troy and Arkansas State have ruined their Sun Belt season. Even so, beating FAU would be a major feature in the team?s cap.
Why Florida Atlantic might win: Middle Tennessee hasn?t faced much of a passing game so far and it still hasn?t come up with any pass defense. Little pass rush has meant the secondary has had to fend for itself, and the results haven?t been pretty. FAU has an advanced passing game, even if it hasn?t shown it off too often, and the offensive line has been fantastic in pass protection.
Why Middle Tennessee might win: The Owl defense has struggled to force mistakes and has hade major problems against the run. If the mediocre Blue Raider ground game is ever going to get rolling, this would be the week as the FAU defensive front has been shoved all over the place. Middle Tennessee really can run, it just hasn?t done it too much behind a lousy offensive line.
Who to watch: Rusty Smith has yet to break out. The reigning Sun Belt Player of the Year hasn?t thrown a touchdown pass in his last two games and if coming off a horrific four-pick game against Minnesota. He hasn?t been accurate, he?s forced things, even when he gets time, and he hasn?t had shown the same zip or magic he had last year. This is the nationally televised game that needs to change off that.
What will happen: There will be plenty of home runs. The quickness of the FAU defense will keep the Middle Tennessee speedsters bottled up for stretches, and then the big plays will come. The Blue Raider defense isn?t struggling as much as the FAU offense., but while Rusty Smith will have his breakout game, so will the Middle Tennessee running game.
CFN Prediction: Middle Tennessee 31 ? Florida Atlantic 27 ... Line: Middle Tennessee -3
Must See Rating: (5 Palin vs. Biden - 1 Beverly Hills Chihuahua) ? 2
