Anyone been Catching This?

[djv]

Seems like after a play off year. If a team had a great ATS year. The next year it seems to be a lower ATS record. Not all but most.

 

[GM]

Gonna check this out and post back.

 

[GM]

Last year's playoff teams with the best ATS records, and their ATS records this year:

New England.....11-5......2-1
Chicago.......11-5......1-2
Pittsburgh.......11-4-1.......0-2
Miami.......10-5-1........3-0
Philadelphia.......10-5-1........2-1
St Louis........9-6-1........0-3
Green Bay.......9-7........0-3
San Francisco......9-7......1-2

Totals.......80-44-4 (64.5%).......9-14 (39.1%)

The bottom 3 teams on this list are really pulling the #'s down.... it could be argued their ATS records last year weren't "great". Take those three teams out and you have:

Totals.......53-24-3 (68.8%).......8-6 (57.1%)

Still a dropoff. I take it all this means is the public/linemaker didn't have respect for some of these teams last year (ie. some of these teams played surprisingly well). Now maybe they are over-respected? Or are they really playing worse? Hmmmm.

 

[dr. freeze]

at 57% they are still underrespected.....anything over 50% leads to underrespect......

i think you are correct in throwing out the9-7 records for this data....that is too close to 8-8 to be of significance.....