Do we have an answer yet?
If I had to guess, I'd probably say that this week it applies to Tennessee/Marshall. It is pretty rare that Marshall is an underdog, so losing the game outright would probably result in an ATS loss as well. And if they're picked as dogs, they tend to get blown out (if memory serves).
If not them, then my other guess would be Oregon St/Fresno St. I can't remember back when Riley was OSU coach how they did early in his first stint. And FSU is pretty tough at home, and it's hard for them to get big teams to play them there, so they usually do well...