My numbers...
My numbers...
show Boise should be a 21 point favorite. La Tech only gave up 29 points @ Kansas and they should have scored offensively, but had some key turnovers. I watched some of this game and felt the La Tech rush defense was solid and they're giving up less than 100 yards per game. La Tech only gave up 14 points to Miss State which isn't saying much until you consider Miss State scored 24 on LSU last Saturday night. I would guess Boise scores about 31 to 38 points maximum. This means I need a couple TD's out of La Tech and they're average offense to cover the number.
Boise's rushing attack has been just average this year so I don't expect Ian Johnson to have a monster day. La Tech's pass defense has been horrid which is my major concern. If Bennett comes out and has to pass to get them back in the game, this could have woodshed and a Boise cover. However, La Tech has the better rushing numbers averaging 164 YPG and 4.5 yards per rush.
However, 38-14 is a winner, winner, chicken dinner and this score sounds about the worst possible outcome IMO. I'm expecting a 31-17 type of game just glancing at the numbers.