April 24

[EXTRAPOLATER]

23rd: 4-3 -1.4
YTD: 23-15-2 +5.1 (11-13 ML, 3-1 RL, 9-1 totals)
comments: my 2 larger bets busted me, as M's bats did nothing until the 9th, and the Bosox turned a potential blowout into a loss, the latter giving me my first miss on the run line; that's what I get for posting a soccer (losing) pick in my baseball thread; not a good day but my early season dismantling of the totals is encouraging--8-0 on posted unders

Rock n Roll

passed on because I'm in too deep as it is:
--philly +130 (not the way Braves have been smoking last few; SP Thomson was the main reason for consideration, but Padilla hasn't shown anything yet)
--Marlins -145 (priced just out of my liking; Marlins totally killed lefties early season last year, but Moehler is no Beckett, Burnett, Willis, or even Leiter)
--Cards -165 (again too pricey, even though Astros can't hit to save their lives; Morris is no Beckett, either)
--mil@SF over 9 +100 (tempting with the matchup, but both clubs bats and SP's are inconsistent, therefore unextrapolatable)

--twins -105 (their bats aren't the same as last year, and as much as I don't like Tigers SP Johnson, Mays is no stud; Tigers in good form early this season, as well)
--tex@NYY under 9.5 -110 (very tempting as I think the Unit is due for a true outing and Astacio has been great, but I foresee the Yankees pissed off bats to do what they've done to Astacio in the past, which is to pound him (check the batter vs pitcher stats))
--bosox -150 (a little too pricey for me, and Arroyo doesn't yet have me convinced; Nomo could surprise also (i.e. not get pummelled))
--a's@Angels under 9 (Blanton is for real, but Escobar makes first big league start of the season off of injjury rehab; I may regret playing this one the wrong way, but A'sticks did finally muster some production on Saturday and should find a way to score vs unsure Escobar and relatively exhausted Angels pen)

back with for-reals if my computer, or brain, don't crash

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Eggs in many basket (case) plays:

--philly@Braves over 8.5 1.1/1 (Thomson and Padilla are both potential light-ups; bullpens well used last few; ump Marvin Hudson isn't exactly a pitchers umpire)
--wash@Mets over 8 1.2/1 (Livan hasn't been spectacular (5.76 era) and, as I've said before, this Zambrano is no Carlos; Metsticks have been smoking; ump Gary Cedarstrom is, again, no pitchers umpire)
--Cubs -1.5 1/1.1 (I think Wood will have a solid game sometime very soon, and my money says it's here vs relatively calm Bucsticks; Fogg looked better vs weaker Padres and Brewers bats--his 1st 2--than in last vs Cards where he surrendered 8 hits and 6 runs (only 2 earned, mind you) in 5 innings of work...at home)
--Rockies 1.5/1.5 (Lookin' for a sweep here, as the Rocks try to salvage some early-season face; I'll take sharp Francis (2 runs allowed over his past 12.2 IP--2 starts) over DL returnee Penny as well; Rockies starting to smoke at home, as they did last season)
--D'Backs 2/2.2 (please explain the price to me, here; Estes not like he was several years back, but definately underrated; Lawrence overrrated, though his 5.60 era should come down at some point)

--NYY -1.5 2.2/2 (Unit will recover from recent shakiness, and check out Yanks bats in head-to-head meetings with Astacio--they can, and will, hit this guy)
--Jays 1.4/1 (maybe the stupidest bet I've made this year (pre-hindsight, that is), as I've watched the first 2 in this series and O'sticks look much livelier than Jays; still, Halladay is a true stud and should play the stopper role to salvage a game in this series; Ponson with 10.43 era after 3 starts, all of which were pretty poor (25 hits allowed his 1st 14.2 IP))
--chisox@KC under 9.5 1.15/1 (this may trump the above stupidity as Bautista will not be seeing a lot of my under money, but combo of tough Orlando Hernandez, supra-calm Royals bats, and my favourite under-ump John Hirschbeck conspired to impel me)
--Mariners 2.6/2 (this might have been for more if M's coulda scored yesterday :cursin: sheesh; Moyer vs Elarton is no contest, in my opinion, and I'll take improved M'sticks over a club that totally sucked vs lefties all of last season)
--a's 1/1.2 (Blanton is for real (where have I heard that before?), and Escobar did not dominate in his 2 rehab starts before joining big-league club)

recap:

philly@Atl o8.5 -110 1.1/1
wash@NYM o8 -120 1.2/1
Cubs -1.5 +110 1/1.1
Rockies +100 1.5/1.5
D'Backs +110 2/2.2

NYY -1.5 2.2/2
Jays -140 1.4/1
cws@KC u9.5 -115 1.15/1
Mariners -130 2.6/2
a's +120 1/1.2

total risk: 15.15 units (easily my heaviest day, of 6 posted (4W, 2L, w/1L streak))

Smoke 'em if you got 'em

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I like this one too much, adding
chisox -125 2.5/2 (I think that SOMEONE has to get the benefit of Hirschbeck's gratuities, and I don't think it will be shaky Bautista vs surging Chisox bats--it took a fine start from a tough Greinke to calm Chisticks yesterday--so it just might be fairly steady Hernandez--with 2 strong wins surrounding his only shaky start in between @small Jacobs Field against the home Indians, who again have been hitting righties--who faces fairly woeful Royalsticks.

That's it for me.
If I am gauranteed a profit of 3-5 units then I'll try the M's nightcap for an additional 1-2 unit grab, even up to -150.

Prosper long and live.

 

[ldabdou]

Nice work Ex! I look for you daily! :clap: It must be the lack of sleep :bed: