April 25

EXTRAPOLATER

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Feb 22, 2001
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24th: 7-4 +6.3
YTD: 30-19-2 +11.4 (14-16 ML, 5-1 RL, 11-2 totals)
comments: better than Sat. as I hit my 4 biggest plays, including 3 on the ML (I'm basically even, now, on the ML); only downers included Jays, which I suggested in my write-up :rolleyes: , and Rockies BP, which cost Rockies the sweep; I added a late unit on the a's@Angels under--to counter-balance my side play (and 1-0 is as under as you can get), but couldn't post it here due to using a foreign computer and forgetting my password--not counting it on my stats above, but woulda been nice to have a 10-0 under record here, instead of my documentable 9-0...I'm WAY overdue to miss an under sometime here

leans thwarted by the line:
--Pirates +125 (anything over +130 and I woulda played it; Perez is due for something, and Astros bats are limping around like a molested concubine)
--phillies -110 (wanted BETTER than even money here, as Day can surprise, and Nationals playing some good ball; Philsticks have gone quiet lately, also)
--braves -120 (again I needed better than even $; Ramirez is fairly solid but Heilman and Mets should be listed as slight faves here, methinks)
--Cubs (woulda maybe tried -150 (dreamola); Prior maybe due to allow a run, but probably not much more; Wilson's career may be nearing it's end, as 5.63 era suggests)
--Cards -200 (again, at the dreamy -150, but the heavy coin is too much for me to place on ex-KCer Suppan; Obermueller a better pitcher than line or career #'s suggest, but he makes first start after lingering in BP)
--az@LA u7.5 -110 (gimme 8 and I probably get sucked in; Vazquez (Mr. Inconsistent) required to have a decent start for under to prevail, and if he does then good chance of D'Bs W (see below))
--SF -120 (right about at the # I was hoping for, therefore not tremendous value here)

--twins -120 (same as SF, with line being about right; Tigers are off to Cleveland while Twins head to KC afterward...under may be the play, if Johnson (another inconsistent one) has a decent start)
--o's@Bosox ov10 -125 (with the starters #'s, this total, and price, is ridiculous; at 9 -110 I was all over the over, as I think strong bats can cover such a total)

Back with my reality cheques if history continues.
 

EXTRAPOLATER

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Feb 22, 2001
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minor riskages for a mediocre board:
--astros@Pitt u8 -120 1.2/1 (Oswalt has been almost as hot as Astrosticks have been cold; Perez has been grim, with the 6 HR allowed in 19 IP being the ugliest stat, but he has done great K-work in past vs slumping Astros (21 K in 13.2 vs Astros, incl. Bagwell, Biggio, and ownership of Mike Lamb); Perez has been a little better at home, this year, though 12 K in 11 IP merely matches the 12 hits allowed through the same)
--Cubs -1.5 +100 0.5/0.5 (Griffey has been nowhere to be found--why has he often been batting 2nd?; Prior & co. should keep it to 2-4 against, so Cubs matching Wilson's current era (5.63) should see them cover)
--d'backs +150 1/1.5 (line looks pretty generous, as D'Backs have come to life, Dodgers go from major hitters park back to confines of home, and Vazquez coming off a beauty at SF (7 shutout innings in a 2-1 victory); Lowe has been brilliant, but Cruz, Green, and Glaus have hit him well in the past)

--chisox +125 0.8/1 (Zito's 1 start at home has been about his only decent one, and Garland is 0-3 (6.75 era) in 3 starts at Network Associates, but Zito, overall, has been shaky, Garland has been getting better each start (3,2,then 1 er allowed in last @Tigers), and Chisox destroyed lefties last season); like over 8.5 -110 here, as well, but see more value chasing another Zito flop

redundantly:

astros@Pirates u8 -120 1.2/1
Cubs -1.5 +100 0.5/0.5
d'backs +150 1/1.5
chisox +125 0.8/1

total risk: 3.5 units

May your nest egg not crack.
 
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