Arizona Series -210

[shamrock]

Arizona Series -210

I backed off playing Arizona huge in this Series becomes when the rotations were announced & Schilling was facing Mussina, I thought Mussina stood at least a fair chance at beating Schilling. I really felt the Yankees could not beat Johnson and said so in a previous thread. Although Pettitte has been tremendous thus far I would have preferred Schilling verse Pettitte & Johnson verse Mussina. If this transpired I would have taken Arizona much bigger than the 5 units to win the Series.
At this juncture Arizona is up 2-0, and I can't believe I can get Arizona -210 on a series price. I am seriously thinking of pounding the Hell out of this! With the thinking being if the Series goes to a 7th game I will buy Yankees back to where I am more comfortable. The only way I could lose is if Yankees win 4 straight, and they would obviously have to beat Schilling & Johnson to do this. Is there something I'm missing??
Best of luck
shamrock

 

[Sick Dog]

wait after yanks win the third you will get a better price

 

[TDP]

I agree and have already played it. Sick Dog brings up a good point. I will lay a little more after game three if Yankees win. GOOD LUCK...........

 

[shamrock]

you are correct in theory sick dog, however I believe Clemens stands a decent chance of losing tonight. I have watched Clemens his entire career living here in Boston. Although he will undoubtedly become the only pitcher with 6 Cy Young awards this winter, possibly the last pitcher to attain 300 wins & will finish with probably close to 5000K' s. He is not a big game pitcher! Clemens pitches like others play middle line backer, his entire game is power & strength & emotion. Generally in these big games he gets himself so hyped he has trouble , over throws, walks people & leaves the ball over the plate Because he is generally behind batters. he put people on his last start against Seattle, he was just lucky Seattle was having problems hitting in that Series. Clemens surely did struggle however walking 5. Backed into a 0-2 hole, on a 35 degree night, with a suspect hamstring and a history of not pitching well in playoff situations. Clemens is no sure win tonight specially -240.
Best of luck
shamrock

 

[shamrock]

you are correct in theory sick dog, however I believe Clemens stands a decent chance of losing tonight. I have watched Clemens his entire career living here in Boston. Although he will undoubtedly become the only pitcher with 6 Cy Young awards this winter, possibly the last pitcher to attain 300 wins & will finish with probably close to 5000K' s. He is not a big game pitcher! Clemens pitches like others play middle line backer, his entire game is power & strength & emotion. Generally in these big games he gets himself so hyped he has trouble , over throws, walks people & leaves the ball over the plate Because he is generally behind batters. he put people on his last start against Seattle, he was just lucky Seattle was having problems hitting in that Series. Clemens surely did struggle however walking 5. Backed into a 0-2 hole, on a 35 degree night, with a suspect hamstring and a history of not pitching well in playoff situations. Clemens is no sure win tonight specially -240.
Best of luck
shamrock

 

[yyz]

Originally posted by shamrock:
I believe Clemens stands a decent chance of losing tonight.

With you having said that, I am surprised a bit with your logic.

You can get the DBacks at +200 on this game, or take the run and a half, and still be getting better value than laying -210 on the series.

The only value in taking AZ to win the series at -210, is if they win tonight. So, since you need that win, you might as well bet tonight's game, and get the +200

Yankees win tonight, and the DBacks become about a -140 favorite (IMO).

I think the only play for you is to hold off on the series, and play half the amount you planed on risking on the DBacks, or the +1'

If Arizona wins, you make what you would have betting the series. They lose, and you get a better price in the morning on the bet you wanted in the first place.

I hope this makes sense to you.

Good luck

 

[shamrock]

you make some interesting points. Thanks for your input!! Series bet already placed. Strongly considering adding Arizona plus 1.5 runs. If Yankees win, will add more on Arizona at better price, had already considered that. But had you have a good point on Arizona + 1.5
thanks
shamrock

 

[shamrock]

you make some interesting points. Thanks for your input!! Series bet already placed. Strongly considering adding Arizona plus 1.5 runs. If Yankees win, will add more on Arizona at better price, had already considered that. But had you have a good point on Arizona + 1.5
thanks
shamrock

 

[Billy]

these damned echo's out here in the valley
are driving me nuts!!!