article: home ice no advantage

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Canadian psychologists shoot holes in hockey's home-ice advantage


FREDERICTON (CP) -- A group of Canadian psychologists is shooting holes in the dearly held belief that home ice is a big advantage when trying to win a hockey championship.

Just in time for playoff season, the psychologists, including Dan Voyer of the University of New Brunswick, are reminding fans of their statistical study of NHL playoff games that found that in a majority of cases, teams lose when playing on home ice.

"It makes me laugh when I hear sports commentators say, 'This team has the home-ice advantage,' " says Voyer, a hockey fan and professor of psychology at UNB's Fredericton campus.

"I know that in the playoffs, it means nothing."

The team of psychologists, led by Edward Wright of St. Francis Xavier University in Antigonish, N.S., studied Stanley Cup finals between 1961 and 1993. They published their findings in the Journal of Sports Behaviour several years ago, but the findings were not widely discussed and did little to dispel the myth of home-ice advantage.

Essentially, the psychologists explored the "choke effect" in championship hockey.

"The hypothesis was that when it is a critical game and people have the possibility of redefining themselves as champions or winners, then they become more self-conscious and start making more mistakes," Voyer says.

"In hockey that means you'll get in trouble, the puck gets into your net and you lose."

Voyer says there's not a wide margin between the loss-and-win ratio but he says that, generally, teams lose championship games on home ice 60 per cent of the time.

He says the findings apply to other sports as well, including baseball, basketball, football and even golf.

But hockey experts are skeptical.

"There is a subtle pressure, no question, from your home fans," says Bill Watters, an executive with the Toronto Maple Leafs.

"You want to perform. But you'd like to think that pressure would be transformed into energy."

Watters lists off major games the Leafs have won at home versus those on the road, quickly calculating that the outcomes are roughly 50-50.

"It's a coin toss," he says, adding he would rather start a series on the road and finish at home.

Voyer says home ice is not a problem during regular season play, when titles are not on the line and there isn't as much fan pressure.

"At regular levels of play, there is not as much pressure and teams can perform optimally," he says.

"You can work better because pressure is not there. When you have that extra pressure, the fans are actually hurting you."

Voyer says that when players sense home-town anxiety for a great performance, they become acutely aware of what they are doing and how they are playing.

He says things professional players do automatically, such as skating, stick-handling or even holding a golf club, become the subject of self-conscious scrutiny.

"Becoming very aware of what you are doing is the surest way to make mistakes when you're talking about something that should be automatic."

The Canadian results mirror a groundbreaking U.S. study in the 1980s that first debunked the home-advantage theory.

Psychologist Roy Baumeister of Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland and a colleague suggested that playing at home is actually bad for a team on the brink of winning a championship.

The prospect of becoming champions in front of home fans makes players self-conscious, which could lead to mistakes on the field, they said.

To support their theory, the researchers analysed a sampling of World Series results from 1924 to 1982. They found that home teams won the final game of the series only 41 per cent of the time, and the seventh game only 39 per cent of the time.
 

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first round bit different--usually

first round bit different--usually

Article Published: Wednesday, April 09, 2003 - 12:00:00 AM MST




Home ice can hurt

Still, history tells Avs to avoid having to advance on the road

By Adrian Dater, Denver Post Sports Writer

Home ice in the NHL playoffs isn't the advantage most people think it is.

That's what recent history tells us. Two seasons ago, the rate of success for home teams in the postseason was .500. Last season it improved to .522, but there was a distinct home-ice disadvantage in the third and fourth rounds, with the hosts winning only 30.8 and 40 percent of games.

If the higher-seeded Western Conference teams win their first-round series, the Colorado Avalanche will have home-ice "advantage" for just one round of the playoffs this year, starting Thursday night at the Pepsi Center against the Minnesota Wild. While the numbers suggest home ice isn't that big of an advantage, it has mattered for the Avs the past four seasons.

Three of the past four years, Colorado's season ended in a seventh game of the Western Conference finals, all on the road. The Avs won the Stanley Cup in 2001 with the help of two seventh-game victories at the Pepsi Center.

For the Avs, it has mattered in the big games, and they hope they don't have to play any seventh games on the road this time.

"That's what cost us before. We should have won the series earlier and not taken it to a seventh game on the road," Avs defenseman Adam Foote said. "If we're in that situation again where we don't have home ice, we're going to want to avoid that."

Last season, home teams won 59.6 percent of their games in the first round. The seeding system, which matches the best teams against the weakest, along with awarding home ice, helps account for that. The winning percentage of home teams slipped to 52 percent in the second round.

Foote thinks he knows why.

"Personally, I find it's easier to play on the road," Foote said. "You play a simpler game. You don't try to do too much. You don't have the distractions you do at home, with family maybe and things like that. It's just all business on the road.

"But it does seem that Game 7s work in your favor at home. I don't know why. It's all a mental thing. It all comes down to who gets the first goal."

Since 1990-91, home teams are 28-16 in Game 7s of a playoff series. Avalanche goalie Patrick Roy, whose teams have lost by a combined 14-3 in the past three seventh games on the road, knows the potential dangers of not having the best record in the Western Conference.


"We had a good year on the road (21-10-5-5), but I guess I'll answer that question (about the possible lack of home ice) when we're there," Roy said. "I don't think there are any easy series in our conference. Everybody's going to have to play well to make it to the second round, and if we get into the second round and we're on the road, we'll have to deal with it. But, obviously, having home ice has had a difference with us the last few years."

Since 1992-93, home teams are 457-394 in the playoffs. The Avalanche is 35-25 at home since moving to Denver.

"Of course, you always want to play as many games at home as you can," Avs winger Alex Tanguay said. "But if you don't have home ice, you have to just work harder. If that's what we'll have to do, then that's what we'll have to do."

Said Foote: "If we're in that position again where we start a series on the road, we're just going to have to make sure we don't play the last game there again."


link to article here with charts showing Home/Away playoff record of each team and more..................http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36~11809~1311481,00.html
 
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