Article: How To Make Money Betting Basebal

[Lightning]

Article I: How to make $$ betting baseball

By Steve Cheski

Baseball and gambling -- America's two favorite pastimes.
I've been a fan of both for many years and I've spend the past two years developing a strategy for betting on baseball. This is not a get-rich-quick strategy, but remember, if you can win 55% of your bets, you can make money.

Here's a quick summary of this strategy. Scroll down for details and good luck!

**There's no place like home
**Avoid the spread
**On any given day . . .
**These guys are too good
**Rookie pitchers are your friends
**Senior Circuit discount
**No bull
**Streaking
**Shopping for odds

There's no place like home: This one should be obvious, but the home team in baseball has a distinct advantage because they get to bat last. If you're on the fence about a game, pick the home team.

Avoid the spread: It's hard enough to pick a winner without worrying about how many runs they'll win by. Stick with betting the money line. (How it works: If the underdog is listed at +160 then you would have to wager $10 to win $16. But if the favored team is listed at -160 then you would wager $16 to win $10. The favorite will always be listed as a negative while the underdog will always be listed as a positive.)

On any given day: The worst team in baseball can win on any given day. This is much more true than in betting college football for example. You can't make a living betting on the underdog, but you've got a better chance to win a longshot baseball bet if some of the other factors in this strategy are in play.

These guys are too good: Because anything can happen in one baseball game, sometime it's a good idea to stay away from games where the line on the favorite is more than -150. You can lose a lot of money in a hurry betting $10 to win $3.85.

Rookie pitchers are your friends: Hitters need to face a pitcher several times before they figure him out. That means a decent rookie pitcher can have above-average success his first one or two times around the league. This is especially true at the start of the season. However, beware of rookies who are called up to make an emergency start -- they're usually candidates for a shellacking.

Senior Circuit discount: Since pitching is such an important factor in baseball betting, National League games are much more predictable because the pitching is stronger than in the AL where the parks are smaller and they use the DH. That puts NL teams at a disadvantage in interleague play when they're using AL rules.

No bull: In this age of specialization, it takes more than starting pitching to win a baseball game. A team with a good closer and at least one good setup man is a better bet than a team with a top starter and a shabby bullpen.

Streaking: Baseball is a game of streaks. If a team is hot, don't fight the odds by betting against them, and if a team is cold, don't think your risking money on them will help them snap out of a losing streak.

Shopping for odds: It pays to compare the lines from at least two sportsbooks. You won't find many discrepancies, but when you do, they can pay off. Also watch for special offers such as deposit bonuses or 5% vigorish (most sportsbooks keep 10% of your winning bet as their cut). I have played for several years at the two casino/sportsbooks listed above and found them both to be honest, reliable and easy-to-use.

Good luck!

Steve Cheski is a veteran baseball bettor who won the 1999 season-long PredictIt baseball handicapping contest. He plays fantasy baseball in two leagues and has won three titles.

 

[Lightning]

Article II: Early season trends

Article II: Early season trends

If you?re thinking of a simple, get-rich-quick theory such as betting the 'under' on every Diamondbacks game -- forget it.

For many bettors, baseball is a hit or miss proposition. So to help you get that solid hit in the early going, I looked at the first month of baseball over the last five years to see if there were any solid trends.

And unfortunately, there weren't many surprises.

Please note, these numbers come from a total of 1,803 games played in the first month of the season from 1997-2001:

1. The ?over? was 861-855-77

Starting pitchers usually struggle to find their groove early in the season, but bookmakers don't. The 'over' holds a slight edge in this spot, but hardly worth mentioning.

2. The home team was 963-840 straight up (SU) in this time frame.

While the home side is winning at a 53.4 percent clip, there is no trend worth playing here either. In the majority of these contests, the home team was favored which meant the price of the home team was so high it wasn't worth playing.

3. Home favorites of -160 or greater were 164-83.

This is an impressive stat, with the home squad holding a 66 percent winning mark. However, we don?t find any value in ?eating chalk? with the heavy favorites. See above. An impressive record ? yes. An impressive moneymaker ? no.

4. Road favorites were 209-150.

Once again, favorites hold the edge. But it is worth taking a closer look at the road favorite because they tend to be cheaper to buy on the road than at home.

Judging from I?ve seen so far, you would expect that playing home teams or favorites would have sent you laughing all the way to the bank. Guess again.

You must remember with MLB, finding value and picking your spots is very important. Here is why:

You make five plays on favorites of -150, wagering $100 on each. (A -150 line with a $100 wager will return $67). If you win three of those plays, which is a respectable 60 percent winning record, you will actually show a measly $1-profit.

If you made the same five wagers on teams with a posted line of +115, and earned the same 3-2 record, your profit would be $145. It doesn?t take a mathematician to figure out where the value is.

Although it may seem easier to pick favorites, the margin for error is too tight. Look for situational underdog plays, and 'totals'.

Beware -- the same golden rule applies to searching for value when playing 'totals'. Paying -150 for a 'total' wager would fall into the same category as playing a medium or heavy favorite.

Here are a couple of interesting stats that might help you land on the right side of the ?dog more often:

When handicapping your games, try to determine if the away team can hold the hosts to four or fewer runs. That fifth run has proven costly in deciding the outcome of many games.

If the home team scores five or more runs, it has held a 679-228 record (74 percent)

If the home team scores four or less runs, it held a 284-612 record (32 percent)

As always, money management is the most integral part to any bankroll. Create a game plan for the season, and stick with it.

Good luck.