some good info and stats here in Haney's regular sportsbetting column from LV Sun on various SB props.
here's some of the text. what you all think of these?
January 26, 2005
Columnist Jeff Haney: Bettors turn attention to Super Bowl props
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.
Today is the heart of prime time for bettors who like to get the first crack at freshly posted Super Bowl propositions in Las Vegas sports books.
Local oddsmakers began posting propositions Tuesday for the championship game between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles set for Feb. 6 in Jacksonville, Fla.
More propositions -- or "props" for short, meaning unusual or offbeat wagering opportunities -- were expected to hit betting boards today and Thursday.
It's difficult to dissect the entire slate of props in short order -- the Las Vegas Hilton alone was planning to release more than 250 individual props, sports book director Jay Kornegay said. But bettors can get a jump on the process by anticipating some probable props, and even make their own line first to compare with the oddsmaker's when it comes out.
Here's a look at a few Super Bowl props we're likely to see (if they are not on the board already) along with some factors to keep in mind when analyzing them ...
Uniform number of the first player to score a touchdown, odd vs. even: Discounting Terrell Owens (No. 81), who probably won't be at full strength even if he does play, and Chad Lewis (No. 89), who's out, the teams' combined "even-number" touchdowns outnumbered "odd" touchdowns by about a 2-1 margin this season.
If "even" is a legitimate 2-1 favorite, then a gambler has a nice edge against the house at odds of minus 150 or better, if he or she can find such a price.
Will Philadelphia ever have the lead: The "Yes" was minus 190 Tuesday at Arizona Charlie's, though you could make a case for the "No" (plus 165). The Eagles were never underdogs of more than 4 points this season (the Super Bowl line is 7) -- but in the nine games in which the Patriots were favored by between 6 and 13 points, the opposing team held a lead in only three of them.
First missed field goal, wide left or wide right: Of the seven combined missed field goals this season by David Akers and Adam Vinatieri, three were wide left, three were wide right and one was short. In the unlikely event you find wide left or wide right as an underdog, it could be worth a play.
Touchdown passes by Tom Brady: He averages 1.72 per game overall, and about the same -- 1.67 -- in games in which the over/under is 44 or higher. (The over/under in the Super Bowl is 47 points, indicating a relatively high-scoring affair is expected.) If you think 1.7 is the "correct" number, then the plus 170 on under 1.5 TD passes at the Hilton could be an attractive price.
Will the largest lead of the game, by either team, be more than 13.5 points: The Hilton has the "over" at minus 160, the "under" at plus 130. You have the key number of 14 working for you if you play the "over," which seems to make a big difference here. In the Patriots' games this season, the "over" in this prop is 14-4; for the Eagles, the "over" is 13-5. Given the combined 27-9 for the "over," you could make an argument the minus 160 is a good deal.
Will the game go into overtime: A "bridge jumper's special" that offers solid value nonetheless. Depending on the point spread, most sharp oddsmakers and bettors figure it's worthwhile to bet that the game will not go into overtime at odds of up to minus 1500 (that is, wager $1,500 to win $100) or even higher.
In the 2003 Super Bowl between Oakland and Tampa Bay, for instance, in which the spread was 4 points (and so more likely to go into overtime than this year's game, lined at 7), professional bettor Fezzik was recommending a play on "no overtime" at odds of up to minus 1250.
That makes the minus 750 on "no overtime" in Super Bowl XXXIX that was available Tuesday at the Hilton look like a bargain.
here's some of the text. what you all think of these?
January 26, 2005
Columnist Jeff Haney: Bettors turn attention to Super Bowl props
Jeff Haney's sports betting column appears Wednesday. Reach him at (702) 259-4041 or haney@lasvegassun.com.
Today is the heart of prime time for bettors who like to get the first crack at freshly posted Super Bowl propositions in Las Vegas sports books.
Local oddsmakers began posting propositions Tuesday for the championship game between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles set for Feb. 6 in Jacksonville, Fla.
More propositions -- or "props" for short, meaning unusual or offbeat wagering opportunities -- were expected to hit betting boards today and Thursday.
It's difficult to dissect the entire slate of props in short order -- the Las Vegas Hilton alone was planning to release more than 250 individual props, sports book director Jay Kornegay said. But bettors can get a jump on the process by anticipating some probable props, and even make their own line first to compare with the oddsmaker's when it comes out.
Here's a look at a few Super Bowl props we're likely to see (if they are not on the board already) along with some factors to keep in mind when analyzing them ...
Uniform number of the first player to score a touchdown, odd vs. even: Discounting Terrell Owens (No. 81), who probably won't be at full strength even if he does play, and Chad Lewis (No. 89), who's out, the teams' combined "even-number" touchdowns outnumbered "odd" touchdowns by about a 2-1 margin this season.
If "even" is a legitimate 2-1 favorite, then a gambler has a nice edge against the house at odds of minus 150 or better, if he or she can find such a price.
Will Philadelphia ever have the lead: The "Yes" was minus 190 Tuesday at Arizona Charlie's, though you could make a case for the "No" (plus 165). The Eagles were never underdogs of more than 4 points this season (the Super Bowl line is 7) -- but in the nine games in which the Patriots were favored by between 6 and 13 points, the opposing team held a lead in only three of them.
First missed field goal, wide left or wide right: Of the seven combined missed field goals this season by David Akers and Adam Vinatieri, three were wide left, three were wide right and one was short. In the unlikely event you find wide left or wide right as an underdog, it could be worth a play.
Touchdown passes by Tom Brady: He averages 1.72 per game overall, and about the same -- 1.67 -- in games in which the over/under is 44 or higher. (The over/under in the Super Bowl is 47 points, indicating a relatively high-scoring affair is expected.) If you think 1.7 is the "correct" number, then the plus 170 on under 1.5 TD passes at the Hilton could be an attractive price.
Will the largest lead of the game, by either team, be more than 13.5 points: The Hilton has the "over" at minus 160, the "under" at plus 130. You have the key number of 14 working for you if you play the "over," which seems to make a big difference here. In the Patriots' games this season, the "over" in this prop is 14-4; for the Eagles, the "over" is 13-5. Given the combined 27-9 for the "over," you could make an argument the minus 160 is a good deal.
Will the game go into overtime: A "bridge jumper's special" that offers solid value nonetheless. Depending on the point spread, most sharp oddsmakers and bettors figure it's worthwhile to bet that the game will not go into overtime at odds of up to minus 1500 (that is, wager $1,500 to win $100) or even higher.
In the 2003 Super Bowl between Oakland and Tampa Bay, for instance, in which the spread was 4 points (and so more likely to go into overtime than this year's game, lined at 7), professional bettor Fezzik was recommending a play on "no overtime" at odds of up to minus 1250.
That makes the minus 750 on "no overtime" in Super Bowl XXXIX that was available Tuesday at the Hilton look like a bargain.
